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Jim Beankie

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
What do the Patriots rushing TDs have to do with Mac Jones?

Lipstick on a pig.

Rookie Herbert had 9 more passing TDs 31 compared to Jones 22.
3 fewer INTs 10 compared to Jones 13
5 rushing TDs where Jones had 0
2 more Game Winning Drives 3 compare to Jones 1.
1 more fumble 8 compared to Jones 7.

In his rookie season Herbert scored 36 TDs himself. Everyone was impressed with Herberts rookie season and this season was no different. Trying to make Jones look like Herbert is like trying to make Papa Johns cardboard pizza look like it came form the Boston's north end.
The score % (for drives) is significantly higher for the Patriots in 2021. That's a pretty big stat that can't be overlooked. Not sure the fact that the Patriots' only having an avg of 14yds more per game (or 1 more rushing 1st down per game) than the 2020 Chargers would explain that huge discrepancy. Starting position (26.6 LaC vs 31.6 NE) is a factor, though.

Also, sorry for the basic question here as I don't really know - how much responsibility does Mac (or any NFL QB) have for setting up the line for rushing plays?
 

Jim Beankie

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
the telling stat

2020 red zone attempts: 48, 26 rz tds, 54.2%
2021 red zone attempts: 63, 39 rz tds, 61.9%

a net positive gain of 15 red zone appearances, and 13 more tds, better conversion rate... the offense was moving the ball significantly better than the year before... and wasn't so dependent on a single player to do so, with 12 of the 48 2020 tds coming from newton rushes... Much better balanced offense...
Gotta adjust for the 17 / 16 game difference, though. Your point's still valid, nonetheless.
 

Pape

In the Starting Line-Up
Gotta adjust for the 17 / 16 game difference, though. Your point's still valid, nonetheless.

just eliminate the cowboys game? or the first game? or the last game of the season? could just break it down into percentages per game, in both 2020 and 2021 i suppose... but i'm not that interested in that level of detail at this point...
 

DropKickFlutie

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
just eliminate the cowboys game? or the first game? or the last game of the season? could just break it down into percentages per game, in both 2020 and 2021 i suppose... but i'm not that interested in that level of detail at this point...

It's not worth even comparing. Completely different. 2020 had NKeal Harry as the worst starting WR in the league and also the TEs were Izzo and LaCosse.

.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
What do the Patriots rushing TDs have to do with Mac Jones?

Lipstick on a pig.

Rookie Herbert had 9 more passing TDs 31 compared to Jones 22.
3 fewer INTs 10 compared to Jones 13
5 rushing TDs where Jones had 0
2 more Game Winning Drives 3 compare to Jones 1.
1 more fumble 8 compared to Jones 7.

In his rookie season Herbert scored 36 TDs himself. Everyone was impressed with Herberts rookie season and this season was no different. Trying to make Jones look like Herbert is like trying to make Papa Johns cardboard pizza look like it came form the Boston's north end.
It’s about the Patriot offense. The 2021 Patriot offense performed better than the 2020 Charger offense.
 

jdlboot14

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Why can't Patriot fans be excited to find a promising rookie QB that started the entire year??
Will they spend the rest of their lives bemoaning the fact Brady left, or didn't remain 30 years old his whole life??
It's so simple - Mac isn't Brady. But he's shown he can be good, and we'll enjoy the ride to see how good as the team progresses.
We're not the Jags, Jets or Browns - it will get better!
 

Toofy

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Brady was so out-of-worldly for so many years, that many younger fans don’t remember cheering for an unsuccessful team. This unprecedented success from 2001-2018 (and arguably 2019, 12-4) has slanted opinions and set unrealistic expectations.

Mac was amazing in year 1. If he improves even a little bit each year (seems like a fast learner, a dedicated pro, an intense competitor), by year 3 there might be the makings of something special here. Best ever special ? No. Capable of winning a title special ? Maybe.

Very, very satisfied with the year one output from the rookie QB. Looking forward to seeing how his career plays out. Bullish on this athlete.
Agreed. If this were any other fan base they would be salivating at the prospect of Mac based on this year's results.

Yes we got lucky with injuries to other teams , but Mac did what he was supposed to do. You can never come back when you don't have difference makers.

All world pro Aaron Rodgers couldn't pass in the second half despite having Aaron Jones and davante . So we can imagine Mac state besides the fact that he is not yet 100% mentally and physically conditioned to NFL.

I think we have hope. Bill just needs to bite the bullet and go with the younger players. Even if we don't make playoff we will be better served for 2023 . Bill is known to cut people 1 year in advance before their dropoff, this year was a anomaly.

Jonnu and agholor playing at 70-80% of their potential will help us scale up. Let's just be hopeful. If they fail, we get a better draft position and maybe better playmakers on 2023.
 

WhatJustHappened

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Why can't Patriot fans be excited to find a promising rookie QB that started the entire year??
Will they spend the rest of their lives bemoaning the fact Brady left, or didn't remain 30 years old his whole life??
It's so simple - Mac isn't Brady. But he's shown he can be good, and we'll enjoy the ride to see how good as the team progresses.
We're not the Jags, Jets or Browns - it will get better!
Seems it's not allowed for some here...
I'm looking FORWARD, and Happy that we have "Weak Armed Mac" in the fold....at cheap$ BTW.
 

jmt57

Moderator
Staff member
The inconsistency of the 2021 New England Patriots offense has already been discussed in other threads about the Pats offense. The general sentiment is that the offense was not as good as the team's overall statistical rankings.

Where I do see encouragement is how other recent rookie quarterbacks progressed in Year Two and beyond.

YearAgeTmPosNo.GGSQBrecCmpAttCmp%YdsTDTD%IntInt%1DLngY/AAY/AY/CY/GRateQBRSkYdsSk%NY/AANY/A4QCGWDAV
201822BUFQB1712115-6-016932052.82074103.1123.889756.55.412.3172.867.949.82821385.354.37236
201923BUFQB17161610-6-027146158.83089204.392146536.76.711.4193.185.349.4382377.65.725.714511
2020*24BUFQB17161613-3-039657269.24544376.5101.7228557.98.511.5284.0107.276.6261594.37.337.822318
202125BUFQB17171711-6-040964663.34407365.6152.3234616.86.910.8259.292.260.7261643.96.316.3819


YearAgeTmPosNo.GGSQBrecCmpAttCmp%YdsTDTD%IntInt%1DLngY/AAY/AY/CY/GRateQBRSkYdsSk%NY/AANY/A4QCGWDAV
202024CINQB910102-7-126440465.32688133.251.2150676.76.710.2268.889.848.5322317.35.645.727
202125CINQB9161610-6-036652070.44611346.5142.7202828.99.012.6288.2108.354.4513708.97.437.512315


YearAgeTmPosNo.GGSQBrecCmpAttCmp%YdsTDTD%IntInt%1DLngY/AAY/AY/CY/GRateQBRSkYdsSk%NY/AANY/A4QCGWDAV
202022LACQB1015156-9-039659566.64336315.2101.7216727.37.610.9289.198.362.6322185.16.576.841313
2021*23LACQB1017179-8-044367265.95014385.7152.2256727.57.611.3294.997.766.0312144.46.836.955518


That's not to say that all young starting quarterbacks unconditionally progress, though in the case below he was injured most of 2021.

YearAgeTmPosNo.GGSQBrecCmpAttCmp%YdsTDTD%IntInt%1DLngY/AAY/AY/CY/GRateQBRSkYdsSk%NY/AANY/A4QCGWDAV
201823CLEQB614136-7-031048663.83725275.6142.9171717.77.512.0266.193.751.2251734.96.956.773410
201924CLEQB616166-10-031753459.43827224.1213.9179897.26.212.1239.278.854.44028576.175.291111
202025CLEQB6161611-5-030548662.83563265.381.6188757.37.711.7222.795.965.5261625.16.646.962214
202126CLEQB614146-8-025341860.53010174.1133.1143717.26.611.9215.083.135.3432699.35.955.4110


Murray is a different style of quarterback than Mac, but like the first two examples above the win-loss trajectory is encouraging.

YearAgeTmPosNo.GGSQBrecCmpAttCmp%YdsTDTD%IntInt%1DLngY/AAY/AY/CY/GRateQBRSkYdsSk%NY/AANY/A4QCGWDAV
201922ARIQB116165-10-134954264.43722203.7122.2173886.96.610.7232.687.457.7483098.15.785.551214
2020*23ARIQB116168-8-037555867.23971264.7122.2205807.17.110.6248.294.361.9271764.66.496.453416
2021*24ARIQB114149-5-033348169.23787245102.1172777.97.911.4270.5100.656.8312866.16.846.901116
 

Ochmed Jones

Pro Bowl Player
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Jones exceeded all my expectations for a rookie qb! He was an absolute machine and we would not have made the playoffs without him.

At the end of the day, all qb’s should be judged on wins and losses.
 

Kasmir

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
Jones exceeded all my expectations for a rookie qb! He was an absolute machine and we would not have made the playoffs without him.

At the end of the day, all qb’s should be judged on wins and losses.
During the win streak, according to NextGen stats, Mac had the highest EPA (Expected Points per Play) in the league and the 5th highest CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation). He was playing at an elite level as a rookie.

During his subsequent collapse, he declined to slightly below average in CPOE and slightly above average in EPA, i.e. he became mediocre.

The question then is, what led to his collapse, and what level will he recover to.

 

PatsFan2

Pro Bowl Player
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Mac had some guys on Offense who underachieved like Smith and Agholor based on contracts: so things could have been even better.
 

venecol

The FRG has a little ****
PatsFans.com Supporter
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Teams that spent the most during FAcy went on to win an avg of 5.4 more games that season, but regressed to 5.6 more losses the following season. So who knows what will happen.

I say shore up the D during FAcy and the draft to stop the run and limit pass plays by the current AFC contenders. That alone should help the O somewhat even if they regress a bit.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
During the win streak, according to NextGen stats, Mac had the highest EPA (Expected Points per Play) in the league and the 5th highest CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation). He was playing at an elite level as a rookie.

During his subsequent collapse, he declined to slightly below average in CPOE and slightly above average in EPA, i.e. he became mediocre.

The question then is, what led to his collapse, and what level will he recover to.

He didn’t collapse. He had one bad game. The rest was very much like the rest of the season.
 

50-yard-line

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Teams that spent the most during FAcy went on to win an avg of 5.4 more games that season, but regressed to 5.6 more losses the following season. So who knows what will happen.

I say shore up the D during FAcy and the draft to stop the run and limit pass plays by the current AFC contenders. That alone should help the O somewhat even if they regress a bit.
That stat is useless unless you know where they started. It's a lot easier to add 5 wins to a 2-14 season than to a 7-9 season.

The former could be just because you're playing easier divisions, you're in the chase a little longer and so playing harder to the end, or finally added talent to a wasteland typically the case).

The latter would mean going from mediocre to elite.
 

crawhammer

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Mac Jones...

7 games against teams with a losing record
7 wins
0 losses
35 P/G
12 passing TDs
3 INTs

11 games against teams with a winning record
3 wins
8 losses
21 P/G
13 passing TDs
12 INTs

Jones & co beat up on the bad teams. He and they got exposed a bit against the better competition.

Whatever they were... Allen, Herbert, Burrow, etc are elite young quarterbacks now. You can add Mahomes, Jackson and Watson to that group. I'm not saying it won't happen BUT it's going to be a lot to ask of Jones to elevate his play to the level of these other quarterbacks.

The closest comp I suppose is Burrow but he improved significantly from season one to season two, with an o-line that wasn't doing him any favors, although Cincinnati did draft an all-pro receiver to fill out what's an A+ receiver group at this point.

I have no confidence the Patriots can do it through the draft so they'll need to bring in a 1A receiver through free agency. Adams and Godwin are probably unrealistic so I think they should take a run at Allen Robinson. Or Mike Williams.
 

*ChungFu*

On the Game Day Roster
Whether we want Mac to hand off to RBs, dink and dunk, go down field, or a combination of all three; he needs a better line to progress. Improve the line and our receivers, running backs, and QB will improve.
 

upstater

On the Roster
Not a strong enough correlation to me.

to play a rookie qb, generally speaking, you had to have played poorly enough in seasons prior to even get a guy at the level that you do via draft. (Of course the exception is if you trade for that spot)

mind you we had a depleted team with poor qb play last year, resulting in what I believe was an illusionary 7-9 record and 15 pick.

That same team with Brady wins two more, with the covid opt outs we win two more. (Yes it hit us harder than most teams, accept this fact)

our line was pressured the most, and they had some of the best protection. Can we praise them some?

that also speaks to the running game doing well.

can we wait till halfway through year three to coronate Mac?
6 of the teams above had comparable seasons to the Patriots the prior year. They weren’t all bad. Chargers, Steelers, Cowboys, Seahawks, etc. even the Colts were a playoff team prior to their deliberate tanking.
 

upstater

On the Roster
Bingo.

Mac Jones should be judged on how he performs against his division and peers. Other things too. Like has he improved arm strength? What's his overall football IQ?

But Brady is an outlier. An exception to everything.

It's great for Brady. But the reality is it's hard to get to--and win--a SB. Even once. The parity is crazy. You've got junk like the Jags beating Buffalo. That's football. That's reality. There isn't alot separating the best from the worst.

There will never be another Tom Brady.

I think most Pats fans realize that.
Brees and Peyton and Brady were the 3 greats of the last 20 years. They were not considered to have great arm strength. None of the 3. Along with Montana and Marino, they were the 5 guys who played that position like coaches, knowing everything that was going on. Only Marino of the 5 had a strong arm.
 

crawhammer

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Whether we want Mac to hand off to RBs, dink and dunk, go down field, or a combination of all three; he needs a better line to progress. Improve the line and our receivers, running backs, and QB will improve.
Is that all?? Seriously though, you forgot about replacing McDaniels, who probably had a bigger influence on Jones than anyone in year one.

I think the o-line was pretty good this season and their running game was very good. They had the second most rushing TDs in the league whereas they were 15th in passing TDs. They really need a dependable red zone wideout.

Brees and Peyton and Brady were the 3 greats of the last 20 years. They were not considered to have great arm strength. None of the 3. Along with Montana and Marino, they were the 5 guys who played that position like coaches, knowing everything that was going on. Only Marino of the 5 had a strong arm.
I'm pretty sure Brady doesn't belong on any list questioning arm strength.

Peyton only had issues with arm strength after his neck problems. After multiple surgeries, and some HGH, he was able to revive his career in Denver. Until his arm gave out for good during the '15 season.

Brees didn't have great arm strength but obviously still had an exceptional career (with a bigtime assist to Sean Payton).
 

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