Realistic availability at #32

[mgteich]

I would think that Butler and AJ would be on our list at 32.

I think the only WRs possibly who could go in the first round are:

DK Metcalf
Hollywood Brown
AJ Brown
Hakeem Butler
Parris Campbell

N’Keal Harry has an outside chance. Apparently the Seahawks are very interested.

 

[manxman2601]

This is quite interesting. This guy has ranked a number of mocks and where people have been mocked and come up with a big board based on those mocks. Unfortunately I can’t upload it so you can get it from this tweet. It’s the second pic.

 

[State]

As Pete Prisco writes in his latest mock, having us take Parris Campbell, the speedburning WR from Ohio State, the Patriot offense is in desperate need for speed on the outside. This has been obvious, allowing defenses to collapse in the middle. If it wasn't for Julian Edelman's exceptional quickness, we would have been in trouble.

So I can see the argument for taking Hollywood Brown, the diminutive home-run hitter with our first in the scenario laid out in Maxman2601's link to larrybrownsports, which compiles and averages many mocks.

Attacking vertically is important, which we saw with the Chiefs, with McCourty mirroring Tyreek Hill deep. I think that's called a cover 2.

 

[manxman2601]

As Pete Prisco writes in his latest mock, having us take Parris Campbell, the speedburning WR from Ohio State, the Patriot offense is in desperate need for speed on the outside. This has been obvious, allowing defenses to collapse in the middle. If it wasn't for Julian Edelman's exceptional quickness, we would have been in trouble.

So I can see the argument for taking Hollywood Brown, the diminutive home-run hitter with our first in the scenario laid out in Maxman2601's link to larrybrownsports, which compiles and averages many mocks.

Attacking vertically is important, which we saw with the Chiefs, with McCourty mirroring Tyreek Hill deep. I think that's called a cover 2.

I don’t think Hollywood Brown ends up being the pick but his explosiveness is different level.

 

[captain stone]

...In any case, if healthy, Thomas is likely to be more likely to be the #2 than either Gordon or Dorsett.

I hope that DT isn't even on the 53 for Week 1. If anything, I would sh!t-can his soft, slow, broken-down Donkey ass and maybe...Maybe...sign him after Week 1 at a GREATLY reduced salary.

 

[goheels22002]

OT David Edwards out of Wisconsin will be on the board at 32, but probably gone by 56. Great size, athletic, needs coaching but who doesn't at this level? Belichick might be able to trade down into the mid-2nd and still get Edwards

 

[captain stone]

OT David Edwards out of Wisconsin will be on the board at 32, but probably gone by 56. Great size, athletic, needs coaching but who doesn't at this level? Belichick might be able to trade down into the mid-2nd and still get Edwards

There should be better OL prospects than Edwards remaining at 56 without needing to lose assets for a trade-up.

 

[SBLIII]

There should be better OL prospects than Edwards remaining at 56 without needing to lose assets for a trade-up.

I couldn't justify Edwards before round 6.

 

[State]

What if Jeffery Simmons AND Rashan Gary are available at 32? Don’t see it happening. But Gary—with his lack of productivity, torn labrum, and Forest Gump Wonderlic score—may see a significant slide.

And most franchises aren’t willing to draft a talent like Simmons with a blown-out knee in the first. Don’t believe all those glib mocks.

Kenneth Simms all the way! D-mn spell check.

 

[manxman2601]

What if Jeffery Simmons AND Rashan Gary are available at 32? Don’t see it happening. But Gary—with his lack of productivity, torn labrum, and Forest Gump Wonderlic score—may see a significant slide.

And most franchises aren’t willing to draft a talent like Simmons with a blown-out knee in the first. Don’t believe all those glib mocks.

Kenneth Simms all the way! D-mn spell check.

I saw quite a good comp for Gary and that was Malik McDowell more in terms of question marks rather than type of prospect.

 

[zimmy]

From recent rumblings it seems the top 20 players will roughly be the following:

QB: Murray, Haskins, Lock, Jones
TE: Hockenson, Fant
DT: Williams, Oliver, Wilkins
DE: Bosa, Allen, Sweat, Gary, Burns
OT: Taylor, Williams, Dillard
C/G: Bradbury
LB: White, Bush

Players who are likely to be gone in the next 10 picks:

RB: Jacobs
DE: Ferrell
DT: Lawrence, Simmons
OT: Ford
G: Lindstrom
WR: M. Brown
CB: Williams

DK Metcalf seems to be a faller and could drop out of the 1st, and the CB/S market is anyone's guess. No one seems to know who the top corner or safety will be coming off the board.

If the board fell this way I would certainly want to trade down if possible. I think we'd be able to get just as good a player at 45 as at 32. I'd even attempt to go down to the bottom of the second or early third and get a first rounder for next year. That would need us to convince someone to come up for Will Grier in all likelihood. Perhaps swinging a trade with Washington, Miami or Carolina for a future second and dropping to 46, 47 or 48 is the best we could do.

 

[mgteich]

YOU PROVIDE A GOOD BASE FOR DISCUSSION
I believe that the following could slip out of the top 23 ( you list 28 players):
DL Sweat (injury concerns)
DL Gary (injury concerns)
DL Lawrence
QB Jones (I think that the giants want Haskins (or Rosen)
CB Williams
=============
THOUGHTS
1) Even if I accept that the value of 32 (really 29) through 45 is about the same, there is still the issue of position. I could certainly see the entire top 10 on our boards at the time being gone in the next 16 picks (by 45).
2) Your list makes a good argument for trading up into the 20's.
3) I'm fine with moving down 2-5 picks if we still project to get approximately the same level player. If the draft goes as you suggest, there will be run on WR's combining in the early 30's. Perhaps we really want a Harry or AJ Brown, even while we wait for Hardman or Isabella later. Ditto with Smith and waiting for the TE's.
4) I prefer the smaller trade down and picking up a 2019 5th or even a swap in the 4th.

WHERE IS THE SWEET SPOT?
Is it through the end of the 3rd (there will be lots of WR's there)? Ivy gut says that there is a serious drop off after about 55.

I would favor moving around to get 4 before the end of the second. That id probably doable if we stop worrying about trying to total 15 picks in 2020.

BOTTOM LINE
1) If there is no viable trade up (using a comp 3rd), and no QB we want at 32, then trade down a bit and pick up a 5th.
2) Then use a comp 3rd to move up from 73 into the 2nd.
3) This gives us 4 picks at 64 or before ( a 1st and 3 second, or 4 seconds)

From recent rumblings it seems the top 20 players will roughly be the following:

QB: Murray, Haskins, Lock, Jones
TE: Hockenson, Fant
DT: Williams, Oliver, Wilkins
DE: Bosa, Allen, Sweat, Gary, Burns
OT: Taylor, Williams, Dillard
C/G: Bradbury
LB: White, Bush

Players who are likely to be gone in the next 10 picks:

RB: Jacobs
DE: Ferrell
DT: Lawrence, Simmons
OT: Ford
G: Lindstrom
WR: M. Brown
CB: Williams

DK Metcalf seems to be a faller and could drop out of the 1st, and the CB/S market is anyone's guess. No one seems to know who the top corner or safety will be coming off the board.

If the board fell this way I would certainly want to trade down if possible. I think we'd be able to get just as good a player at 45 as at 32. I'd even attempt to go down to the bottom of the second or early third and get a first rounder for next year. That would need us to convince someone to come up for Will Grier in all likelihood. Perhaps swinging a trade with Washington, Miami or Carolina for a future second and dropping to 46, 47 or 48 is the best we could do.

 

[State]

I saw quite a good comp for Gary and that was Malik McDowell more in terms of question marks rather than type of prospect.

Um, no.

Malik McDowell became a cancer in the locker room. For a few big games he delivered. Gary underperformed, certainly, but as far as I know he is not toxic.

Malik McDowell, a second/round pick of the Seahawks, had an injury, an ATV accident, and a colorful arrest by the Atlanta PD. He was released. Good riddance to this cautionary tale.

 

[captain stone]

...If the board fell this way I would certainly want to trade down if possible. I think we'd be able to get just as good a player at 45 as at 32. I'd even attempt to go down to the bottom of the second or early third and get a first rounder for next year. That would need us to convince someone to come up for Will Grier in all likelihood. Perhaps swinging a trade with Washington, Miami or Carolina for a future second and dropping to 46, 47 or 48 is the best we could do.

If we're trading #32 into next year for a late 2nd-rounder, then I would also demand that a 5th-rounder this year be included.

 

[goheels22002]

I couldn't justify Edwards before round 6.

Edwards will be long gone by round the middle of round three. Where are you getting your info?

 

[State]

Is it too late to grab a binkie on the first day of the draft?

Why didn’t I check out the Justin Tuck of this draft? Notre Dame’s own Jerry Tillery.

Can’t coach that height, wingspan, or thoroughly decent three-cone time. He’ll be great at knocking down passes and kicks.

It helps he ran a sub—5 second 40

My prime concern is he may be _too_ smart. He speaks so well! I’m surprised he’s not from Stanford. Does this make sense?

He’s like Jordan Richards—but with size and athletic ability at his position. Oh, that sounded offensive. But Captain Stone probably likes it.

No-brainer to trade down a few spots with the Giants. Grab him and a fifth-rounder.

How many active and productive 6’6” guys are out there with proven production at a big-time program? He’s my last-minute guy.

 

[PatsFan2]

I don’t think Hollywood Brown ends up being the pick but his explosiveness is different level.

What's Hollywood like 165lbs soaking wet?? Can his body hold up in the NFL??

 

[everlong]

It's cracking me up that the vast majority of mocks I'm reading all say something to the affect of "the Patriots will probably trade down or do something else nobody expected...." and then just make a BPA pick at a position of need. They've all thrown in the towel. Part of me laughs at them and part commisserates.

The Patriots could have the #1 pick in the draft and somebody could clone a 21 year old LT and I'd have some sliver of doubt.

 

[patchick]

What if Jeffery Simmons AND Rashan Gary are available at 32? Don’t see it happening. But Gary—with his lack of productivity, torn labrum, and Forest Gump Wonderlic score—may see a significant slide.

Gary, Simmons and Montez Sweat are huge question marks in round 1. But in defense of Gary on the Wonderlic, he's dyslexic and would naturally struggle with the test format. He's actually considered a hard-working student who has made the Big Ten's all-academic list despite the dyslexia.

 

[SBLIII]

Players than should be available in that range I would like to see on the Patiots

OT Dalton Risner
OT Greg Little
S Darnell Savage
DT Dexter Lawrence
DT Jerry Tillery
WR AJ Brown

If NONE of those are available I would like to see us trade out but I think we will get one of those.