QB of the future

[BelichickFan]

Meanwhile Charles Davis is on Sirius talking about Grier being the 5th first round QB with Charlie Weis who has liked him as a first round guy for a while.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Meanwhile Charles Davis is on Sirius talking about Grier being the 5th first round QB with Charlie Weis who has liked him as a first round guy for a while.

I have to watch more id prefer if he was taller.
I still really like Stidham and Thorson.
Id rather take Stidham in the third as opposed to Grier in the 1st.

 

[BelichickFan]

Id rather take Stidham in the third as opposed to Grier in the 1st.

I'm with you. I am just preparing myself for the seemingly realistic possibility.

 

[SBLIII]

Grier in the 2nd would be good value much better than Murray, Haskins or Lock in the 1st. Don't even talk about the scrub Jones in the 1st.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I have to watch more id prefer if he was taller.
I still really like Stidham and Thorson.
Id rather take Stidham in the third as opposed to Grier in the 1st.

He's 6024, or half an inch under 6'3. That's not exactly tiny. Aaron Rodgers was 6020 even, for comparison. Maybe this will help your comfort level: Setting the Quarterback Board: Is Will Grier’s appropriate aggression a fit for the Patriots?

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Grier in the 2nd would be good value much better than Murray, Haskins or Lock in the 1st. Don't even talk about the scrub Jones in the 1st.

I agree game manager does nothing great.
I'd rather trade up for Lock or end up with Grier at 32 or the second.
Stidham and Jackson are considerations in the middle to late rounds.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I agree game manager does nothing great.
I'd rather trade up for Lock or end up with Grier at 32 or the second.
Stidham and Jackson are considerations in the middle to late rounds.

Lock, Stidham, and Jackson will never be long term starters in this league, as far as I see it.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

He's 6024, or half an inch under 6'3. That's not exactly tiny. Aaron Rodgers was 6020 even, for comparison. Maybe this will help your comfort level: Setting the Quarterback Board: Is Will Grier’s appropriate aggression a fit for the Patriots?

Great article thank you I'm warming up to him if he is the pick at 32 even.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Lock, Stidham, and Jackson will never be long term starters in this league, as far as I see it.

Can you break down what you don't like about each of them?

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Can you break down what you don't like about each of them?

Give me some time; work is pretty busy, so I may not be able to get to everything. If I manage to create some breathing room, then I'll update this post throughout the day and then @ you so that you get the notification that there's new content.

I'll start with Lock, since I actually do like his interviews and I think he's the most advanced/talented of the trio you mentioned. He shows a lot of promise after setting the SEC passing TD record last year, but I have some major concerns.

Let's talk completion percentage. He finally managed to reach 62% this season, after posting 49% his freshman year and hovering in the mid-50s for the rest of his college years. While I appreciate progress, very rarely do pro players improve their completion percentage beyond their college peak. He's likely to be a sub-60% passer for most of his NFL career, although if he can squeak above 60% then he has a chance to shine. There's a big delta between his good performances this year and his poor ones, however, which leads me to my next point:

Without Emanuel Hall, Lock was terrible. Now, obviously, quarterbacks do best when they have all their weapons on the field. Even Brady takes a dip in performance without reliable pass catchers. The difference is that Brady remains competitive; Lock fell off the proverbial cliff. Yes, he was against stout SEC defenses, but it only gets harder in the NFL. He was a four-year starter, so he shouldn't struggle so much.

Lock's 2018 game logs are below. Before you look at the second screengrab of the games that Hall missed due to injury and family tragedy, see if you can figure out for yourself when Lock went without his primary downfield threat:




If you don't feel like thinking that hard (I sure don't in the middle of the work day!), then I'll point it out for you: other than a solid outing against the fairly mediocre Memphis Tigers, Lock lost every single game without Hall and reverted to right around 50% passing, even dropping below 50% for the first two games against SEC competition. Maybe that's not fair to judge him so harshly, but Lock went from ~ 70% completion to 50% once he lost Hall (maybe we should just draft Hall, haha).





People like Lock because he has a big arm. Strong arm = good. QB scouting 101.

Lack of consistent anticipation, however, removes much of the advantage of a strong arm. Let's say Lock throws 60 mph, or 88 feet per second, and Mr. Average Arm QB (MAAQB) throws 55 mph, or roughly 80.6667 fps. MAAQB, however, has good anticipation and on an average basis throws .1 seconds earlier than Lock, who isn't always an anticipatory passer. Suddenly, the difference in arm strength is completely nullified. And if MAAQB throws .15 seconds sooner? Well, now he has the advantage!

I bring this up because too often if his first read isn't available, Lock hesitates and doesn't make quick, correct decisions to throw the ball. Instead of stepping up into the pocket, relying on his ability to read the defense, and firing to a spot that should give his receiver a chance to make a play, he usually drifts backward or escapes out the backside against pressure. He is a very good scrambler, but I am not fond of his pocket presence even if he's not facing pressure.

And we haven't even gotten to his tape, yet. I'm not sure I'm going to be able to cut gifs of the plays I want to highlight. So much to do, so little time.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Give me some time; work is pretty busy, so I may not be able to get to everything. If I manage to create some breathing room, then I'll update this post throughout the day and then @ you so that you get the notification that there's new content.

I'll start with Lock, since I actually do like his interviews and I think he's the most advanced/talented of the trio you mentioned. He shows a lot of promise after setting the SEC passing TD record last year, but I have some major concerns.

Let's talk completion percentage. He finally managed to reach 62% this season, after posting 49% his freshman year and hovering in the mid-50s for the rest of his college years. While I appreciate progress, very rarely do pro players improve their completion percentage beyond their college peak. He's likely to be a sub-60% passer for most of his NFL career, although if he can squeak above 60% then he has a chance to shine. There's a big delta between his good performances this year and his poor ones, however, which leads me to my next point:

Without Emanuel Hall, Lock was terrible. Now, obviously, quarterbacks do best when they have all their weapons on the field. Even Brady takes a dip in performance without reliable pass catchers. The difference is that Brady remains competitive; Lock fell off the proverbial cliff. Yes, he was against stout SEC defenses, but it only gets harder in the NFL. He was a four-year starter, so he shouldn't struggle so much.

Lock's 2018 game logs are below. Before you look at the second screengrab of the games that Hall missed due to injury and family tragedy, see if you can figure out for yourself when Lock went without his primary downfield threat:

View attachment 23215


If you don't feel like thinking that hard (I sure don't in the middle of the work day!), then I'll point it out for you: other than a solid outing against the fairly mediocre Memphis Tigers, Lock lost every single game without Hall and reverted to right around 50% passing, even dropping below 50% for the first two games against SEC competition. Maybe that's not fair to judge him so harshly, but Lock went from ~ 70% completion to 50% once he lost Hall (maybe we should just draft Hall, haha).


View attachment 23216


People like Lock because he has a big arm. Strong arm = good. QB scouting 101.

Lack of consistent anticipation, however, removes much of the advantage of a strong arm. Let's say Lock throws 60 mph, or 88 feet per second, and Mr. Average Arm QB (MAAQB) throws 55 mph, or roughly 80.6667 fps. MAAQB, however, has good anticipation and on an average basis throws .1 seconds earlier than Lock, who isn't always an anticipatory passer. Suddenly, the difference in arm strength is completely nullified. And if MAAQB throws .15 seconds sooner? Well, now he has the advantage!

I bring this up because too often if his first read isn't available, Lock hesitates and doesn't make quick, correct decisions to throw the ball. Instead of stepping up into the pocket, relying on his ability to read the defense, and firing to a spot that should give his receiver a chance to make a play, he usually drifts backward or escapes out the backside against pressure. He is a very good scrambler, but I am not fond of his pocket presence even if he's not facing pressure.

And we haven't even gotten to his tape, yet. I'm not sure I'm going to be able to cut gifs of the plays I want to highlight. So much to do, so little time.

Really appreciate this.

 

[zimmy]

Sitdham is probably my guy. I prefer Jones and Grier overall but they all need plenty of work and time to sit. If the difference is 3 rounds then Stidham represents the best value.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Sitdham is probably my guy. I prefer Jones and Grier overall but they all need plenty of work and time to sit. If the difference is 3 rounds then Stidham represents the best value.

Unless we feel Grier is Mayfield like.

 

[SBLIII]

Unless we feel Grier is Mayfield like.

He isn't quiet but he is a lot better than the general opinion. He makes very, very few bad throws and is very accurate.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

He isn't quiet but he is a lot better than the general opinion. He makes very, very few bad throws and is very accurate.

Is his arm comparable to Mayfields?