Projection of 2018 Roster

[maineman209]

I would add Dwayne Allen to this list. No way he is coming back at his current cap number.

Might be closer to 50-50 than many people seem to think.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Might be closer to 50-50 than many people seem to think.

He's a great blocker, but that's only worth so much.

 

[ashley]

@slam I liked your write up and your putting the draft pick by where we picked in the appropriate slot.

Just a few comments:

Don't want to see Roberts as our starter at LB or even on the team next year. Richards, shouldn't be on the team at all.

At LCB, I think it's Eric Rowe or a free agent. At this point I think Cyrus is a reserve.

I'd also like to see Dion back, hopefully they can make it happen!!

 

[maineman209]

He's a great blocker, but that's only worth so much.

Unless you don't have one.

 

[Urgent]

Do the figures being quoted include the NLTBE bonuses, such as the big one Gronk earned? Those would count against 2018 cap.

Even with $23mm, still need a LT, starting CB, starting RB, and 8-10 more back-ups.

 

[maineman209]

It would be great to acquire an LB who could immediately slot in above Roberts. That could be difficult to find in the draft at pick #31 or later. Much the same chance to find one in FA at an affordable price. Either way, Roberts now has two seasons of experience in the system and schemes, while a new guy will be starting from scratch.

It would also be nice to find a fourth safety who could relegate Richards to ST-only duty (where he's begun to excel). Safeties who can play (better than Richards) in the Pats system may be even rarer than LBs, though.

More often than most folks realize, that "upgrade guy" simply isn't available.

 

[maineman209]

Do the figures being quoted include the NLTBE bonuses, such as the big one Gronk earned? Those would count against 2018 cap.

Even with $23mm, still need a LT, starting CB, starting RB, and 8-10 more back-ups.

Miguel's numbers include all bonuses and salary adjustments.

 

[nabwong]

How can I convince BB to cut Jordan Richards? C'mon man. A coach on the field. F that S. Make him D. Coordinator then.

 

[GorBelSer]

Providing Mitchell is cleared to play, and Dorsett is in long-term picture as it was advertised earlier in the season, then Amendola or Edelman need to be cut.

 

[GorBelSer]

It would be great to acquire an LB who could immediately slot in above Roberts. That could be difficult to find in the draft at pick #31 or later. Much the same chance to find one in FA at an affordable price. Either way, Roberts now has two seasons of experience in the system and schemes, while a new guy will be starting from scratch.

It would also be nice to find a fourth safety who could relegate Richards to ST-only duty (where he's begun to excel). Safeties who can play (better than Richards) in the Pats system may be even rarer than LBs, though.

More often than most folks realize, that "upgrade guy" simply isn't available.

It would be hard to find at #31 a LB who is not slow, undersized, nonexistent at pass defense, inept at reading plays and foolish enough to constantly overshoots himself into the gap?

 

[maineman209]

Providing Mitchell is cleared to play, and Dorsett is in long-term picture as it was advertised earlier in the season, then Amendola or Edelman need to be cut.

Amendola doesn't "need to be cut" under any circumstances. He's a free agent.

But why would Edelman need to be cut?

 

[maineman209]

It would be hard to find at #31 a LB who is not slow, undersized, nonexistent at pass defense, inept at reading plays and foolish enough to constantly overshoots himself into the gap?

I'm glad I don't have to rely on you for objective scouting reports.

Anyway, if an LB who is simply better than Roberts (or, rather, simply better than Roberts the way you think of him), why would you spend the #31 on him?

 

[Joey007]

A good start, but I sure hope we do more than that at LB.

 

[GorBelSer]

I'm glad I don't have to rely on you for objective scouting reports.

Anyway, if an LB who is simply better than Roberts (or, rather, simply better than Roberts the way you think of him), why would you spend the #31 on him?

Roberts is, at best, serviceable. His limitations simply prevent him from being anything more than a depth player, and his contribution was on clear display during the SB. Wouldnt mind keeping him around as an injury insurance, but that is about it.

I meant not going after him. Because they will be 32 and 33 next season, Hogan has to stay as a bigger receiver, Cooks is a lock. If Mitchell and Dorsett are on board, Edelman coming off an injury might be expendable if they want to bring back Amendola on a cheaper deal. The way I see it, we wont retain both of them.

 

[doesntmatter1]

We are all in agreement on Roberts and Richards. The next area to focus on is defensive tackle. For most of the year it was the worst I've seen in years from a patriot defense. Branch was a beast and then just became a ghost. Jonathan Guy and Malcolm Brown are inconsistent and were easily pushed at times. Ricky seemed like our best guy late in the year and the fact that no one in the league wanted or even tried to pick him up says it all about where we stand at that position. We need in influx of raw strength and Valentine could really help with that if he is healthy.

Azeem Victor is someone I have been eyeing since last year.

 

[Deus Irae]

Unless Lewis tries to break the bank, I expect him back with the team.

 

[Guts]

I want Amendola back more than anyone else.

 

[ATippett56]

I made an attempt to project the 2018 roster based on boring, conservative, and optimistic offseason assumptions. The team gets back all injured players at full health to choose from. We say goodbye to the veteran stopgaps like Harris, Britt, Bennett, and Harrison. We resign Solder but let some good FA players like Dion Lewis go (Just guessing). Of course Malcolm Butler is gone, Alan Branch too. I put Gillislee in the "gone" category, but who knows? We make no major trades involving draft picks or current players. Gronk doesn't retire.

I assigned 6 roster slots to "Draft Pick", but as we know rookie FA's might make the team as well, and some draft picks will not. I numbered the draft picks according to my perception of need. I assume the Pats will draft a QB to groom and keep Hoyer. Please note that there are some players I'd rather keep that I listed as gone rather than some players I've listed as on the roster, like Lewis and Amendola, but I'm just trying to think like Bill with regards to age and salary.

Given all that, here's what next season's opening day 53-Man roster might look like. 11 returning injured players in blue, 6 Draft Picks (or UDFA) in red.

QB, Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Draft Pick 2
HB, Rex Burkhead, James White, Brandon Bolden
FB, James Develin
WR, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett
WR, Julian Edelman, Malcolm Mitchell, Matthew Slater
LT, Nate Solder, Antonio Garcia
LG, Joe Thuney, Draft Pick 6
C, David Andrews, Ted Karras
RG, Shaq Mason
RT, Marcus Cannon, LaAdrian Waddle or Cameron Fleming
TE, Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen, Jacob Hollister

LDE, Deatrich Wise, Derek Rivers
DT, Lawrence Guy, Draft Pick 1
DT, Malcom Brown, Vincent Valentine
RDE, Trey Flowers, Adam Butler
LB, Donta Hightower, Marquis Flowers
LB, Kyle Van Noy, Draft Pick 4
LB, Elandon Roberts, Harvey Langi
LCB, Cyrus Jones, Jonathan Jones, Draft Pick 3
SS, Pat Chung, Jordan Richards, Draft Pick 5
FS, Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Nate Ebner or Brandon King
RCB, Stephon Gilmore, Eric Rowe

P, Ryan Allen
K, Stephen Gostkowski
LS, Joe Cardona

Given that, these are the notable players we let go. Some might make it to the Practice Squad.

HB Dion Lewis, Mike Gillislee
WR Kenny Britt, Bernard Reedy
WR Danny Amendola
LT Andrew Jelks
LG Cole Croston
RT LaAdrian Waddle or Cameron Fleming
TE Martellus Bennett

LDE Geneo Grissom, Eric Lee
DT Alan Branch
DT Ricky Jean-Francois
RDE James Harrison
LB Shea McClellin
LB David Harris
LB Nicholas Grigsby
LCB Malcolm Butler
SS Nate Ebner or Brandon King
RCB Johnson Bademosi

(P.S. I have no idea whedther this would be Miguel approved or not. I don't think I make any cap shattering assumptions.)

Of course I don't expect the offseason to go like this, but it's an interesting exercise to set a baseline of how things would look if we went into autopilot.

Notable offensive players currently under contract for the 2018 NFL Season:

Center - Andrews, Karras
Offensive Guard - Thuney, Mason, Croston
Offensive Tackle - Cannon, Garcia
Quarterback - Brady, Hoyer
Fullback - Develin
Running Back - Gillislee, White
Tight End - Bennett, Gronkowski, Allen, Hollister
Wide Receiver - Edelman, Britt, Hogan, Dorsett, Mitchell, Cooks

New England Patriots Salary Cap | Over the Cap

Potential Salary Cap Casualties
Bennett, Martellus
Allen, Dwayne
Britt, Kenny
Salary Cap Savings = $12,640,625

 

[supafly]

I want Amendola back more than anyone else.

There’s little reason to move on from Amendola, who is an excellent WR4-5 option with clutch experience, Edelman (coming off major injury) insurance, and a very reasonable expectation for another 1 yr contract.

He obviously wants to stay here, has openly talked about how much he enjoys it and why he’s agreed to take pay cuts, and continues to play at a high level. I think Belichick would consider making an exception by keeping 6 real receivers if guys like Dorsett and Mitchell are both the locks some of you guys assume them to be.

 

[ATippett56]

I hope we get one of Sherman or Talib to pair with Gilmore.

You guys think we keep Burkhead but let Dion go?

Howe: Indepth look at Patriots’ roster, decisions to be made

"Dion Lewis (unrestricted free agent): Lewis will want something comparable to a three-year, $18 million deal with $10 million guaranteed to avoid free agency. Don’t expect a hometown discount."