Playoff Scenarios

[pencilneckgeek]

I always hate waiting around for the networks to figure out the tiebreaker scenarios, so I sat down last night and worked out the AFC (at least I think I've got it all right). I figure someone out there might find this interesting, so while the kids are playing with the new toys... It's not comprehensive (e.g., no tie scenarios). Here goes, team-by-team:

SD: Win and HFA.
Balt: Win and bye. If SD loses, win and HFA.
Indy: If Balt loses, win and bye.
NE: If Indy loses, win and 3 seed.

Denver: Win and 5 seed. Lose and KC win and out, UNLESS Jets lose 2 and Cinci, Tenn and Jax all lose. (KC's better division record means they get compared to the rest of the conference and when they lose the tie-breaker they're put up against the next team, so Denver never gets a chance.)

NYJ: Win 2 and in. Win 1 and in, if Cinci loses, UNLESS Jax wins and Tenn loses and Denver wins OR if Denver loses and KC wins and either Jax loses, Tenn wins or Cinci loses.

Cinci: If Jets lose 1, win and in.

Tenn: If Jets lose 1 and Cinci loses, win and in.

Jax: Win and in, if Tenn AND two of Jets, Cinci and Denver lose. (Tenn holds Division tiebreaker here.)

KC: Win and in, only if Denver loses AND 2 of Cinci, Jax and Tenn lose OR 1 of them loses and Jets lose 2.

Time to prepare for the grandparents. I won't be doing the NFC, other than to say that if GB beats Chicago, they get in over the Giants based on a better record against common opponents (1-3, if they beat Chicago vs 1-4).

Anybody care to expand, amend or take on the NFC scenarios? Should be in print somewhere more official by Wed, I'd guess, though.

 

[BlitzFritz]

thanks i was curious about all that

 

[PatsFan37]

You totally lost me on the Jets, but here's a question.

If the Jets lose tonight, can Belichick screw Mangini by playing Cassel all 4 qtrs against the Titans and let the Titans win?

I doubt the Pats will think that way (better to win going into the playoffs) but it's just a thought.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

You totally lost me on the Jets, but here's a question.

If the Jets lose tonight, can Belichick screw Mangini by playing Cassel all 4 qtrs against the Titans and let the Titans win?

I doubt the Pats will think that way (better to win going into the playoffs) but it's just a thought.

I wouldn't put it past the brain trust in Foxboro to consider just that. But, if there is a chance to get to the #3 seed, then the Pats have to go for the win. However, who says that Cassell can't win? The guy looked pretty damn good in preseason. A lot of teams were said to be calling about his availability.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

You totally lost me on the Jets, but here's a question.

Jax holds a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Jets, but they don't get in on the tiebreaker unless Tennessee loses, b/c of their division records. Jets holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over Tennessee, but with one win they would lose the conference record tiebreak to Cinci. If Denver loses and Jets win one, Denver will still have a better conference record tiebreak than the Jets, but it won't matter if KC wins, as Denver would fall behind them on division record and KC's awful conference record would lose out to anyone else in the running.

 

[Pats726]

Re: Playoff Scenarios NFC???

And in teh NFC?? OR is that too screwy??? Looks like an 8-8 team gets in ...no matter what the scneario...

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Oops. Things are clearer after a good night's sleep. KC can still get in with a win, if Tenn, Denver and Cinci lose (KC is playing Jax).

NFC will have some 8-8 team in there. GB and NYG have the best conference records, but GB will win the common opponents tie-breaker, if they beat the Bears. (They trail in that tiebreaker at present, but the Bears win will put them over), so GB wins and in. NYG are in with a win and GB loss. Carolina holds a division (maybe head-to-head, too) tie-breaker over Atlanta and a head-to-head tie-breaker over STL, so they're in with a win and GB and Giants loss. Atlanta holds the common opponent tiebreaker over STL, so STL needs Atlanta, Carolina, GB and the Giants to all lose. The funny thing is this last scenario isn't out of the question. GB plays Chicago. The Giants could figure out a way to lose to Brookline High School, and Washington might have some at home pride going for them. Carolina faces New Orleans, who are playing for a bye, and Atlanta gets a Philly team playing for a division title.

 

[mgteich]

I believe that the Giants could still make at 7-9.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Giants could get in at 7-9. Blech. More comprehensive (and accurate) playoff scenarios are at ESPN. Jets scenarios are complicated enough that they don't have them all. They also have Jax and KC scenarios, which I got slightly wrong above.

EPNS has Giants and GB going to the strength-of-victory tiebreaker (i.e., whose opponents they beat have more wins at season's end), if they both win. The common opponents tie-breaker requires a minimum of 4 "common games." Assuming ESPN got it right, Green Bay's two games against Chicago don't count as two separate "common games" for that purpose. If they did count, winning against Chicago this weekend would make them 1-3 in common games, versus NYG's 1-4, to take the wild card. To win the strength-of-victory tiebreaker, GB would need a pretty lucky string of events (i.e., Detroit beats Dallas, Minnesota beats St. Louis, Miami beats Indy, AZ beats SD, SF beats Denver, Tampa beats Seattle, Houston beats Cleveland AND New Orleans beats Carolina). If one (but not two) of those games don't go their way, they would need NE, Buffalo and the Jets to win this week to win the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. That's not going to work for them, so unless ESPN got it wrong about the common opponents, GB pretty much needs a Giants loss and they still need to beat Chicago to get in.

The funny thing about the NFC is that if the Giants lose, GB, Carolina and Atlanta are all on the road against superior teams, so St. Louis is a real possibility to get in, despite being the furthest down the list of potential wild card teams.

 

[PatsFan37]

Many thanks, PNG, but I officially give up and will content myself with watching the games and rooting for the teams I like, which means rooting for whoever plays the Jets, and for once, rooting for Miami.

FWIW, I love watching Cassel play. His biggest weakness, IMO, is his inability to sense the rush and to have that internal clock telling him when to get rid of the ball. If he doesn't get better at that, he'll never get to the next level. I hope it's just a matter of playing time, but that wasn't enough for Bledsoe.

 

[Lansdowne]

What I find interesting is if the Patriots lose to the Titans, that opens the possibility that the Broncos could miss the playoffs (provided Gore & Co. can upset them later that afternoon). I'd want the Patriots to face the Broncos just to get them out of the way, but any fashion in which Denver is eliminated is okay in my book.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I always hate waiting around for the networks to figure out the tiebreaker scenarios, so I sat down last night and worked out the AFC (at least I think I've got it all right). I figure someone out there might find this interesting, so while the kids are playing with the new toys... It's not comprehensive (e.g., no tie scenarios). Here goes, team-by-team:

SD: Win and HFA.
Balt: Win and bye. If SD loses, win and HFA.
Indy: If Balt loses, win and bye.
NE: If Indy loses, win and 3 seed.

Denver: Win and 5 seed. Lose and KC win and out, UNLESS Jets lose 2 and Cinci, Tenn and Jax all lose. (KC's better division record means they get compared to the rest of the conference and when they lose the tie-breaker they're put up against the next team, so Denver never gets a chance.)

NYJ: Win 2 and in. Win 1 and in, if Cinci loses, UNLESS Jax wins and Tenn loses and Denver wins OR if Denver loses and KC wins and either Jax loses, Tenn wins or Cinci loses.

Cinci: If Jets lose 1, win and in.

Tenn: If Jets lose 1 and Cinci loses, win and in.

Jax: Win and in, if Tenn AND two of Jets, Cinci and Denver lose. (Tenn holds Division tiebreaker here.)

KC: Win and in, only if Denver loses AND 2 of Cinci, Jax and Tenn lose OR 1 of them loses and Jets lose 2.

Time to prepare for the grandparents. I won't be doing the NFC, other than to say that if GB beats Chicago, they get in over the Giants based on a better record against common opponents (1-3, if they beat Chicago vs 1-4).

Anybody care to expand, amend or take on the NFC scenarios? Should be in print somewhere more official by Wed, I'd guess, though.

Well, you and the Boston Herald's morning edition both seem to have your matchups straight.

http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/view.bg?articleid=174036&format=&page=1

Bottom line - I'd hate to tank the game and lose out on a better seed if the unthinkable happens and other favored teams lose as well.