OT: Dolphins might be closing in on a deal for Deshaun Watson (edit: or not)

[Chevy]

Remember when folks here and elsewhere jonesed for Tua?

Tua ... Jimmy G. ... Michael Bishop

 

[Rob0729]

Not impressed with Watson to be honest. He never really elevated Houston into any kind of real contender and i doubt he does anything for the Dolphins (if he get to play at all).

I think he is a top tier QB, but he isn't an elite QB like Brady, Manning, or Brees who can elevate a team without a lot of talent to be a contender. Watson is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but only if they put some talent around him. If Miami is giving up two firsts for him, it will make it harder to get that talent especially since they have whiffed on a lot of draft picks recently.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I still think with so much uncertainty around his case, I wouldn't risk it. Reports are that Miami already offered two firsts and Tua for Watson. Tua is basically a throw away in the trade since he has little value to the Dolphins if they have Watson. But that is still a lot for Watson if he drags these cases out into next season and then ends up with a lengthy suspension.

There is a potential high reward for doing this especially if Watson is vindicated and gets no suspension from the league. But with a lot of uncertainties, I am not sure I would make that risk.

Let's look at a potential doomsday scenario. What if Watson accidentally admits to sexually assaulting one of these women in a deposition and then the DA decides to bring charges. The NFL may be forced to give a historic suspension. Of course this is a worst case, extremely unlikely scenario; but I am using it to make a point.

And to be perfectly honest I don't think the salary is the risk. It is the draft pick compensation. If the Dolphins mortgage their future for a guy in the worst case scenario ends up in jail, it will set them back for potentially a decade. The money is the least of their concern because a lot of it or most of it is not guaranteed by the Dolphins.

But then again, the way the Dolphins have wasted draft picks in recent years, does giving away two firsts really mean much to them?

EDIT: I replied to this post before you added the contract breakdown from Watson, but my point in this post is consistent with what the Dolphins will be on the hook for.

I think Houston wants to get the hell out of the Watson era and would prefer to do it asap. The other consideration is if they trade him this year, they can clear all the signing bonus money in 2021 and wash their hands of it. They're idiots if they're turning down two unconditional first round picks and a quarterback who they could probably trade for a second/third round pick. I think the rumor is Washington wants Tua, so maybe they'll provide that additional pick. If it's two firsts and another second/third, they should take that and be glad. They avoid having this last far into the future and have lots of draft capital to start over. Personally, I'd be surprised if Miami were willing to offer that much, but we'll see.

EDIT: Also remember Miami picked up a 2023 first round pick from San Francisco when SF traded up for Trey Lance. So, they do have that draft capital to spare. That could mean they're really just giving up a 2022 first round pick, Tua (who they don't want) anyway, and the bonus 2023 first round pick they got as a gift from SF. That doesn't really wreck their future at all.

 

[Deus Irae]

I still think with so much uncertainty around his case, I wouldn't risk it. Reports are that Miami already offered two firsts and Tua for Watson. Tua is basically a throw away in the trade since he has little value to the Dolphins if they have Watson. But that is still a lot for Watson if he drags these cases out into next season and then ends up with a lengthy suspension.

The cases are civil cases. The worry is if enough is found to change that such that viable criminal charges get filed. That's where a team's investigators come in.

 

[Rob0729]

I think Houston wants to get the hell out of the Watson era and would prefer to do it asap. The other consideration is if they trade him this year, they can clear all the signing bonus money in 2021 and wash their hands of it. They're idiots if they're turning down two unconditional first round picks and a quarterback who they could probably trade for a second/third round pick. I think the rumor is Washington wants Tua, so maybe they'll provide that additional pick. If it's two firsts and another second/third, they should take that and be glad. They avoid having this last far into the future and have lots of draft capital to start over. Personally, I'd be surprised if Miami were willing to offer that much, but we'll see.

EDIT: Also remember Miami picked up a 2023 first round pick from San Francisco when SF traded up for Trey Lance. So, they do have that draft capital to spare. That could mean they're really just giving up a 2022 first round pick, Tua (who they don't want) anyway, and the bonus 2023 first round pick they got as a gift from SF. That doesn't really wreck their future at all.

I think Miami traded one of their first rounders next year to move back up in the first round this past draft. I think the Eagles have that 49ers first round pick. But they would still have the 49ers' 2023 first rounder from the Lance trade.

There are definitely advantages to trading for Watson now. I just think he is a toxic asset until you find out the outcome.

 

[Rob0729]

The cases are civil cases. The worry is if enough is found to change that such that viable criminal charges get filed. That's where a team's investigators come in.

I don't think whether there are criminal charges or not will stop a harsh punishment for Watson. These are he said/she said cases. So the prosecution may not bring a case against Watson even if they think he is guilty because they may not have enough evidence to prosecute. That happens all the time in sexual assault and rape cases.

But I thought the women accusing Watson are not cooperating with the NFL. If that is the case, the NFL's investigators are likely not going to get most of the most damaging evidence against Watson until the discovery phase of the trials.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I think Miami traded one of their first rounders next year to move back up in the first round this past draft. I think the Eagles have that 49ers first round pick. But they would still have the 49ers' 2023 first rounder from the Lance trade.

There are definitely advantages to trading for Watson now. I just think he is a toxic asset until you find out the outcome.

They traded their own pick to move up. They still have:

2022 first round pick (from SF)

2023 first round pick (own)
2023 first round pick (from SF)

Plus if Tua becomes expendable, likely a 2nd/3rd going to Houston. They’ve also had multiple first/second round picks the last few years and a big amount of homegrown talent. I think the trade makes sense for them.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't think whether there are criminal charges or not will stop a harsh punishment for Watson. These are he said/she said cases. So the prosecution may not bring a case against Watson even if they think he is guilty because they may not have enough evidence to prosecute. That happens all the time in sexual assault and rape cases.

But I thought the women accusing Watson are not cooperating with the NFL. If that is the case, the NFL's investigators are likely not going to get most of the most damaging evidence against Watson until the discovery phase of the trials.

If you trade for him now, and the Ommissioner puts him on the list for the rest of the year, Watson will have, basically, served a one year suspension, albeit with pay. I don't know how much Goodell would then add to that based upon only "He said. She said." civil cases, but it doesn't make sense for it to be much.

 

[stephens44]

So does this mean Dolphins fans can't make massage parlor jokes about Kraft any more?

 

[Pape]

1. Traded to a new city.
2. Settlement with accusers.
3. 8 game suspension with “more to be added on if appropriate” as criminal charges conclude (won’t be convicted of anything big.)
4. Becomes very religious.
5. Gets married to a virtuous Christian woman.
6. Resumes career some time in 2022.

 

[Rob0729]

If you trade for him now, and the Ommissioner puts him on the list for the rest of the year, Watson will have, basically, served a one year suspension, albeit with pay. I don't know how much Goodell would then add to that based upon only "He said. She said." civil cases, but it doesn't make sense for it to be much.

I think after this past week, it could be more than it was before. I think if the WFT sexual harassment thing keeps popping up, the more likely Goodell comes down hard on Watson. Goodell is doing whatever he can to protect Daniel Snyder in this by quietly giving him a $10 million fine and refusing to release the investigation findings and all the emails. If this doesn't go away, Goodell may use Watson as proof that he can come down hard on a sexual predator in the league. Goodell will sacrifice Watson to protect Snyder.

And it is 22 he said, she said cases. Not just one. If it was just one, I think he would get a slap on the wrist. It will be very hard for Goodell to give him a minor suspension with 22 cases depending how the cases turn out.

 

[Rob0729]

The thing is if Roethlisberger did what he did back then today, he might have gotten a much longer suspension than six games that was reduced to four.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think after this past week, it could be more than it was before. I think if the WFT sexual harassment thing keeps popping up, the more likely Goodell comes down hard on Watson. Goodell is doing whatever he can to protect Daniel Snyder in this by quietly giving him a $10 million fine and refusing to release the investigation findings and all the emails. If this doesn't go away, Goodell may use Watson as proof that he can come down hard on a sexual predator in the league. Goodell will sacrifice Watson to protect Snyder.

And it is 22 he said, she said cases. Not just one. If it was just one, I think he would get a slap on the wrist. It will be very hard for Goodell to give him a minor suspension with 22 cases depending how the cases turn out.

Racist! Unfair! Look at how the white QBs have been treated!



That's what Goodell's facing if he goes for the hard spanking.

 

[Pape]

The thing is if Roethlisberger did what he did back then today, he might have gotten a much longer suspension than six games that was reduced to four.

or the commissioner might let him stay on an active roster, making ten million dollars for doing nothing.

thing is, the no balls texans owner/front office should have suspended him, and tolled his contract for this year instead of paying him

thing is, the commissioner should have jumped all over this from the start.

 

[Rob0729]

Racist! Unfair! Look at how the white QBs have been treated!



That's what Goodell's facing if he goes for the hard spanking.

The NFL creates an environment that encourages men to sexually harass, assault, and rape women! That is what Goodell faces if he gives Watson a slap on the wrist. Right now they have a more of a #metoo problem than a race problem.

The league just gave the WFT a slap on the wrist on a sexual harassment case even though we found out last week that there are emails of WFT executives sending topless pictures of WFT cheerleaders to ESPN analysts.

 

[Rob0729]

or the commissioner might let him stay on an active roster, making ten million dollars for doing nothing.

thing is, the no balls texans owner/front office should have suspended him, and tolled his contract for this year instead of paying him

thing is, the commissioner should have jumped all over this from the start.

The NFL have their cake and eat it too in this. They got Watson on a defacto exemption list without having to do it themselves. The best of both worlds for them. I guarantee you that the second he gets trade and if he gets activated this season, Goodell will put him on the exemption list.

 

[carmelo15]

Pats should be at the table. If for no other reason than to make the Dolphins get taken to the cleaners

theyll be getting a franchise QB there’s no such thing as getting taken to the cleaners when the return is a franchise QB

 

[Pape]

The NFL have their cake and eat it too in this. They got Watson on a defacto exemption list without having to do it themselves. The best of both worlds for them. I guarantee you that the second he gets trade and if he gets activated this season, Goodell will put him on the exemption list.

Goodell isn't going to do anything

 

[Rob0729]

Goodell isn't going to do anything

He wants the teams to defacto suspend the players so when he gives a suspension, they cannot argue that that the league had already given them a suspension.

 

[venecol]

They haven't even started discovery or depositions yet. How could Ross remotely have enough information to know the outcomes. Civil cases can change dramatically based on what comes out of the discovery phase. Watson could be vindicated or turned into the next Harvey Weinstein or Bill Cosby in the public opinion after that. And no amount of due diligence right now is going to give you insight about how that is going turn out.

And I seriously doubt any prosecutor is going to discuss a case with a team owner who is looking to trade for the subject of his or her open criminal investigation.

I think you are give Stephen Ross too much credit. There is no way of knowing the outcome of all of this. If there was, there would be other teams bidding on Watson. Do you think Ross is smart enough to investigate this and know that Watson should be back by say midseason next year for sure and people in the Eagles' organization, Broncos' organization, Panthers' organization, or whatever other team's organizations interested in trading for Watson either haven't thought to check or couldn't get the same information Ross has?

My take is Miami is desperate to get a franchise QB. They know Watson's value is depressed right now and there is no other team bidding on him. And they think it is worth the risk that he will be back by at least midseason next year to get him at a reduced rate. They probably feel somewhat confident or hopeful that Watson will probably get a shorter suspension with what they know, but they cannot know for sure and they are playing the odds that the situation won't change over time.

Ross is a very successful real estate developer. If these trade rumors are true, he will have done proper due diligence. There won't be any discovery or depos if the cases are settled. Maybe, if true, there's info the cases are close to being settled. Once civil cases are settled, more than likely the State drops their investigation since part of the settlement would include accusers dropping their cooperation with the State. Given the above scenario, the only unknown would be what Goodell does. Since Ross pays his salary, pretty sure he's had a talk with Pash.

My point is, your doomsday scenario that MIA is so desperate they will proceed w/o knowing outcome of anything is sheer fantasy in your brain.