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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.Old saying, play for tie at home, for win on the road
That assumes that the two point conversion is the last play of the game. If there's as little as, I don't know, 16 seconds left then going for it and succeeding will give the other team incentive to go for it. If you miss the conversion, then you have to try the onside.Looking it up I found
Long term average 2pt conversion rate: 48.2%
XP percentage after moving back to 15: 94-95%
So,
Go for 2= 48.2% chance of winning
Go for 1+OT = 94-95% * 50% = 47-47.5% chance of winning
So for a generic team it is slightly better odds to go for 2. But basically a wash.
I would think the real advantage of going for 2 is you avoid the risk of injury and potentially being more tired for your next game.
Looking it up I found
Long term average 2pt conversion rate: 48.2%
XP percentage after moving back to 15: 94-95%
So,
Go for 2= 48.2% chance of winning
Go for 1+OT = 94-95% * 50% = 47-47.5% chance of winning
So for a generic team it is slightly better odds to go for 2. But basically a wash.
I would think the real advantage of going for 2 is you avoid the risk of injury and potentially being more tired for your next game.
Amazing they overcame all the flags.
Yup. Coaches CONSTANTLY overlook the value of knowing earlier whether or not they’ll need the two on a final score.My apologies if this was already brought up, but I actually did think the Chargers would entertain going for two...…….BUT NOT WHEN THEY DID.
They should have gone for two on their SECOND-TO-LAST TD.
After all, you are down by 14, get the TD, go for 2.
1.) If you get it, wonderful, then on the final TD you kick the extra point for the win.
2.) If you DON'T get it, then you have to go for two on the final TD just to tie.
So the only way you really lose out is if you miss both two pointers (which would be only a 25% chance if we assume 50% success rate on 2 point tries).
To be fair the Chargers also received some generous calls, like the pass interference in the end zone that setup the final touchdown. I'm glad they called it, but man that was a tough call.
Agreed. BB made a good call with the odds in his favor, but sometimes the odds don't pay off in your favor. In 100 alternate realities, that play works more than it fails. Unfortunately in the lone reality that counts, it failed.
Regards,
Chris
I've got bad news for you: In the other 99 alternate realities, Pats lose SB51.I'm working on a way to transit to Hugh Everett alternate quantum realities