One of the better reads on the press conference

[Box_O_Rocks]

http://www.lowellsun.com/ci_3731323

Based on Belichick's well-chronicled record, here are four general rules to consider when trying to guess who the Patriots might pick:

1. Belichick trusts players whose college coaches share Belichick's general philosophies about football.
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2. Belichick likes his linebackers big, smart and versatile.
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3. Belichick doesn't draft for glamour or urgent need. It's all about value.
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4. Belichick drafts based on his system. He wants smart, tough, versatile, productive players who fit what he is trying to do, not necessarily those who are the darlings of the draftniks.

 

[The Gr8est]

This is exactly why I don't understand the gnashing of teeth over whether we are going to get the LB ( or perish the thought RB or WR) that we want in the 1st round. We are going to grab the best value. We may not get a LB in the 1st but we'll get a great Pats-type player, and our LBs will be just fine when the season starts.

 

[Rene Vallieres]

Good Point

This is exactly why I don't understand the gnashing of teeth over whether we are going to get the LB ( or perish the thought RB or WR) that we want in the 1st round. We are going to grab the best value. We may not get a LB in the 1st but we'll get a great Pats-type player, and our LBs will be just fine when the season starts.

I agree with you 100%. Yes, we lost Willie but Colvin looked to be all the way back the last half of the season and moving Vrable to OLB full time would solve some problems. (Even Beisol would be better if he could play outside, rather than inside). We do need MLB help, but we could easily solve that problem as late as the 3rd round. If DeAngelo Williams is still there at 21, I feel like we have to take him. He needs to work on his blocking, but he is a game breaker running or catching, especially since he'd probably have a linebacker on him all the time coming out of the backfield. His additon would benefit the receivers and Ben Watson because he's such a double threat. I think back a couple of seasons and remember how wonderfully the offense flowed when Corey was running for 1600 yds. We had so many of those 7-9 minute drives that BB (and the defense) loves. It was a thing of beauty. If DeAngelo's gone by 21, then Carpenter, Lawson, Wimberly, or Greenway may be the way to go. If we take Williams, then we could look for an immediate starter at OLB next year through the draft, trade, or FA. We don't have the depth at LB that we'd like, but we don't have to sell out for one in the 1st round.

 

[big mike]

This is exactly why I don't understand the gnashing of teeth over whether we are going to get the LB ( or perish the thought RB or WR) that we want in the 1st round. We are going to grab the best value. We may not get a LB in the 1st but we'll get a great Pats-type player, and our LBs will be just fine when the season starts.

True. My feeling though is that there are many very good OLB prospects (in particular 3-4 OLB prospects) that will be taken in mid to late round 1, and BB likely has his eyes on at least one or two of them. With all the teams likely to be going OLB in mid to late round 1 and early round 2, I think BB will likely not want to risk losing the one(s) he has his eyes on by not taking one in round 1. We don't know who exactly BB will prefer - it could be Manny Lawson, Chad Greenway, Bobby Carpenter, Demeco Ryans, etc... Or he could have several of them ranked roughly the same, and not care which particular one he gets (in which case he may look to trade down a few picks, and just take whoever is left in late round 1). If he does like a particular one above the rest, I think he will just take him at 21, or possibly even look to move up ahead of Dallas to make sure they don't take the one he likes.

We can't really know if BB likes a particular one above the rest, or views several as equally desirable - so it's all guesswork as far as who we'll get. But, I think it's a fairly safe bet that he'll take an LB in round 1.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Another good read out of the press conference, Breer did a nice job applying BB's answers to Breer's draft perception.

http://www.metrowestdailynews.com/sportsColumnists/view.bg?articleid=127914

If it were any other coach, there'd be good reason to think it was a lie.

Bill Belichick, on the other hand, has proof he's telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth when he says:
"You can't create players. You have to draft the board based on what your options are and as soon as you start taking players truly based on need, if they can't fill that need, then you have to come back the next year," said Belichick at his annual pre-draft press conference. "And you're drafting again for the same spot, and you haven't filled anything other than putting a name on a piece of cardboard and putting it up on the depth chart."

What that means, above all else, is that the Patriots probably will take the No.1 player left on their board when the 21st overall pick comes up a week from Saturday.

What it also means is New England won't get caught up in there being a "run" on a certain position or address a crying need by reaching.

This philosophy actually matches the Patriots' approach to free agency: Put a value on a player. Don't spend beyond that value to secure said player.
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It also gives the reason for why this team is so hard to forecast going into the draft.

Not only is their board vastly different than the consensus, because that consensus is built on scouting services New England doesn't subscribe to, the Patriots also clearly won't go for need if there's a better player available at another position.
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[After making a number of predictions Breer continues with this...BOR]

Forget everything you just read.

No, really. The thing is that the Patriots, year-in and year-out, see things differently than everyone else. The only real predictable first-round pick of the last six years has been Wilfork, and that's only because he fell way down the board.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

since there are a wealth of good LBs in the draft there's a certain logic to the idea that the best available will be, lo and behold a LB. But to be dead certain it's a LB? That's the whole point. If everybody passes on D'Brickashaw Furguson (not gonna happen, he might even go #1,) you really think they still draft a LB?

More to the point, if [whoever is not a LB, who Belichik ranks where the national media rank D'brickashaw Furguson] is available, you really think he picks a LB?

Speculation's tough vis a vis any team... that much more so for NE.

PFnV

 

[Urgent]

I disagree.

Belichick may say that they don't draft for need.
Let's look at the record.

2005 draft
Two major free agency defections: Ty Law (released) and Joe Andruzzi (UFA).
First two picks: Logan Mankins and Ellis Hobbs.

2004 draft
Major free agency defection: Ted Washington.
First pick: Vince Wilfork.

2003 draft
Major free agency defection: Bobby Hamilton
First pick: Ty Warren

Vince Wilfork was a value pick who unexpectedly dropped.
Mankins, Hobbs, and Warren were all considered reaches at the time.

The Patriots tend to address their top needs with players that fit their system. They may not be universally valued at the draft position where the Patriots take them, but they are good values to the Patriots.

I will be very surprised if the Patriots exit Day One without a linebacker and wide receiver. Personally I hope they go defense in round one, but I've learned to be happy with who they select, since the Day One players tend to fit their system well.