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NEW ARTICLE: MORSE: Patriots Mock Draft 1.0

2021 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: at Bills
Pick Results: NE: 83.5% at BUF: 16.5%

Mon
Dec 6th

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
He passed on Lamar twice at the bottom of the 1st so id actually be shocked to see him trade up for Lance.. (or pick him in the 1st)



Reminds me a bit of my old binkie Gallup..
That might have been light years ago though?

And how did that work out? Our QB struggled to throw 6 TDs last year while he's leading his team to the playoffs for the 3rd year in a row.

I like Grimes a lot. I think he's on a roster and contributing this year.
 

stephens44

On the Game Day Roster
Mock drafts for Belichick are next to impossible. First of all, he never drafts need, he drafts best value on his board. Second of all, his board is always different than what conventional thinking is. We would need to start filtering players by football IQ, team captains, mult-functional and whether they graduated. That starts to narrow it down but hardly makes it easy. My guess is he trades the 1st round pick for a later 1st rd pick and another pick to gain "value". I would also guess he drafts defenders, probably corners and D line, because thats what he's always done to reload for a run.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Mock drafts for Belichick are next to impossible. First of all, he never drafts need, he drafts best value on his board.
Bill drafts when value & need meet. Need absolutely plays a part in it for sure. He's taken on very few projects. Bill wants to know what you can do for him tomorrow but need is a big factor.
Second of all, his board is always different than what conventional thinking is.
Idk, honestly who knows? I've never seen a BB board up close and clear so again who knows?
I've done ok. Last year I had 7 prospects on my board. Wynn, Sony, Crossen, Duke, Stid, Wino, Harris and I believe a few others from the previous drafts. I feel like the 2017 draft was talked about in the DF all year when you look at who we ended up grabbing. All those guys were brought up as PTP numerous times.
We would need to start filtering players by football IQ, team captains, mult-functional and whether they graduated.
All these things are factored into my board already.
That starts to narrow it down but hardly makes it easy. My guess is he trades the 1st round pick for a later 1st rd pick and another pick to gain "value". I would also guess he drafts defenders, probably corners and D line, because thats what he's always done to reload for a run.
I just want good players, either side. We're due for an influx and some luck.
 

PatsFanInVa

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2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Okay, first of all, @BaconGrundleCandy, if you picked all those guys to be Pats picks, I'm awed. I don't know what you mean though when you say you had 7 prospects on your board, seriously, what is the definition of that? But whatever that means, I echo your last line. There are lots of paths to the promised land.

Public service announcement/cliche: Every time I see a QB-loaded predicted draft, I think of that 1999 draft when Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpeper, Cade McNown, and Donovan McNabb were the can't-miss prospects. Absolutely loaded at 1st round QB talent. 40% of them were worthy of starting QB spots, if you're generous to Culpeper. I did like the language education possibilities if McNown came to anything... you know, he could do Sesame Street spots with muppets named McVerb, McAdjective, and McParticiple... I could also have enjoyed seeing McNabb and McNown face off in a fortuitously located Super Bowl, allowing the network to do a parody of "Nobody's gettin fat except Mama Cass," featuring the line "McNabb and McNown are just gettin down in LA, you know where that's at..."

But I digress.

My point started out being a very simple reminder of what we all know, the crap shoot nature of the draft. Fast forward exactly 1 year from this "loaded" QB draft class, predicted to rival the 83 Kelly/Marino/Elway/O'brien/Eason/draft.... to the much "weaker" class of 2000, specifically pick 199... right?

It's kind of nice not to have the League hovering around trying to steal picks, not to have to pick 32nd, to have lots of cap room going in, etc. What have been largely headwinds in the past become tailwinds this year, comparatively. But the paradox is, it's the worst of 20 that (by definition) provides us the most room for improvement. It's the "rebound wave" after being post-Brady and cash-strapped. We're still post-Brady, but now we know what the floor is. I'm fairly serious about this. In the passing game last year, we had 8 TDs and 10 INTs.

Its logical to predict greatest improvement where the bar is lowest, and for us, that is at the most important position on the field. Improving the QB passing game means things like double-digit passing TDs and single-digit interceptions. We went from a still nearly statistically elite QB to a statistical trainwreck in the passing game and still won 7 games.

That's the beauty part of this off-season. There are a lot of ways to improve on our 2020 QB situation, by a lot. There are a lot of QB prospects who can throw more TDs than interceptions, even if we don't draft an elite prospect.

Let's say that--relatively recent history aside--the Pats can count on 11 games being a definite ticket to the playoffs. That's 4 more wins. For the moment, let's lock the remainder of the roster as a "wash" - i.e., it won't gain or lose us any games on its own. Obviously this is super-simple-minded. Let's also say that there are guys who, with our line play, could perform well at QB. Let's say our OL is average - the 16-th best unit out of 32.

There's room to grow by 10 TDs with a journeyman (18 passing TDs), by 20 TDs with a slightly above average guy, and by 40 if we somehow get a Brady 07 type jackpot season out of somebody. In fact, Brady improved 26 passing TDs (24 to 50) year over year in his 2007 season. An improvement of 26 passing TDs only demands that we get 34 TDs out of our QB next year. That's high-ish, but not historically high.

Do we really need elite numbers to get back in the playoffs--preferably, to go deep in the playoffs--after winning 7 games on 8 TD throws in 2020, almost 1 per touchdown thrown? The simple-minded approach would be to say that a number of TDs in the teens -- all else being equal -- gets you to 11 wins. That's perhaps too simple to even use in analogy-land, but I hope the point isn't totally without relevance.

Point being, we went from a guy who has been, in his time, record-setting good, to nearly record-setting bad. A lot of guys get us multiple additional wins over 2020. I'm not even dead-set against Cam coming back, if there are injury recovery questions I don't understand and it's reasonable to think he'll put up 20 passing TDs instead of 8... though on the butterfly scale, that one ranks at top-of-roller-coaster-and-descending. Make him play 2nd chair if we see him again.

As for replacing running TDs from the QB position? Not a need unless your QB can't pass. It's a wannahave, not a gottahave. There are guys called running backs. They run the ball for a living. If you're really an RPO type guy/athletic freak, fine. Very on-trend. But between the two, give me an immobile QB who can pass, not a mobile QB who can't.

And get us a journeyman who can get the job done, if drafting the next "franchise" is not in the cards. Competence is the bar, not excellence, and probably puts us back in the playoffs, given the 2020 floor of 8 passing TDs.

And to the point of what BB might think? He might think that to get somebody really special, you have to keep fishing for a long time... and that meanwhile, you want excellence across the roster, all things taken together -- the value proposition, not the need-ism it's so tempting to go with. Just don't have a weakness of that enormity to try to make up for.
 

upstater1

Pro Bowl Player
My point started out being a very simple reminder of what we all know, the crap shoot nature of the draft. Fast forward exactly 1 year from this "loaded" QB draft class, predicted to rival the 83 Kelly/Marino/Elway/O'brien/Eason/draft.... to the much "weaker" class of 2000, specifically pick 199... right?

There are still a few stellar QB drafts. For instance, 2018. 3 of those players finished with excellent seasons in the last few years, 2 of them finished in the top 2 of MVP voting in the last 2 years. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield is a really good QB class (don't know what to make of Sam Darnold yet, but trending badly). Mahomes and Watson draft was thin on QBs but boy did those 2 hit. Trubisky appears to be a bust.
 

PatsFanInVa

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2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
There are still a few stellar QB drafts. For instance, 2018. 3 of those players finished with excellent seasons in the last few years, 2 of them finished in the top 2 of MVP voting in the last 2 years. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield is a really good QB class (don't know what to make of Sam Darnold yet, but trending badly). Mahomes and Watson draft was thin on QBs but boy did those 2 hit. Trubisky appears to be a bust.
Remember when Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers came out? I believe they were both "can't miss," but Alex Smith was supposed to be NFL-ready, while Rodgers had a high upside, but needed a year carrying a clipboard for Brett Farvrevruh.

I'm not sure Smith has ever thrown 30 TDs after about 15 years. Rodgers got more time holding the clipboard than we bargained for, and far less mentorship from Farvrevruh. As a result, he never learned to throw touchdowns to cornerbacks and safeties like 4 did. :D

Apropos of nothing.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Okay, first of all, @BaconGrundleCandy, if you picked all those guys to be Pats picks, I'm awed. I don't know what you mean though when you say you had 7 prospects on your board, seriously, what is the definition of that? But whatever that means, I echo your last line. There are lots of paths to the promised land.
So I use the term PTP (Patriot-Type Prospect/Player) to identify guys I think are fits here. Every team has their preferences but obviously it's different when it comes to Bill. People always talk about how hard it is to gage where his head is at so I gave it shot.

Last year I made a board (Reportedly NEP have a board between 75-120 names of so. I have to believe it varies a little depending on the actual draft itself that given year. I think I had 120 prospects give or take) of what I thought a Pats board would look like. I had Dugger, Onwenu, Keene, Lewerke, Asiasi, Bryant and Uche. So that's what I mean by the 7.

Before that I had a similar board with Sony, Wynn, Crossen, Duke. Had Harris, Stid, Wino, Froholdt identified as PTP as well. I had Michael Jackson and De'Jon Harris on my sheet from 2018-19 as well.

I've posted the boards a few times and still have them. They're still here somewhere. I posted screenshots, there's a small piece on nepatriotsdraft with Stidham and others.

Public service announcement/cliche: Every time I see a QB-loaded predicted draft, I think of that 1999 draft when Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpeper, Cade McNown, and Donovan McNabb were the can't-miss prospects. Absolutely loaded at 1st round QB talent. 40% of them were worthy of starting QB spots, if you're generous to Culpeper. I did like the language education possibilities if McNown came to anything... you know, he could do Sesame Street spots with muppets named McVerb, McAdjective, and McParticiple... I could also have enjoyed seeing McNabb and McNown face off in a fortuitously located Super Bowl, allowing the network to do a parody of "Nobody's gettin fat except Mama Cass," featuring the line "McNabb and McNown are just gettin down in LA, you know where that's at..."

But I digress.

My point started out being a very simple reminder of what we all know, the crap shoot nature of the draft. Fast forward exactly 1 year from this "loaded" QB draft class, predicted to rival the 83 Kelly/Marino/Elway/O'brien/Eason/draft.... to the much "weaker" class of 2000, specifically pick 199... right?

It's kind of nice not to have the League hovering around trying to steal picks, not to have to pick 32nd, to have lots of cap room going in, etc. What have been largely headwinds in the past become tailwinds this year, comparatively. But the paradox is, it's the worst of 20 that (by definition) provides us the most room for improvement. It's the "rebound wave" after being post-Brady and cash-strapped. We're still post-Brady, but now we know what the floor is. I'm fairly serious about this. In the passing game last year, we had 8 TDs and 10 INTs.

Its logical to predict greatest improvement where the bar is lowest, and for us, that is at the most important position on the field. Improving the QB passing game means things like double-digit passing TDs and single-digit interceptions. We went from a still nearly statistically elite QB to a statistical trainwreck in the passing game and still won 7 games.

That's the beauty part of this off-season. There are a lot of ways to improve on our 2020 QB situation, by a lot. There are a lot of QB prospects who can throw more TDs than interceptions, even if we don't draft an elite prospect.

Let's say that--relatively recent history aside--the Pats can count on 11 games being a definite ticket to the playoffs. That's 4 more wins. For the moment, let's lock the remainder of the roster as a "wash" - i.e., it won't gain or lose us any games on its own. Obviously this is super-simple-minded. Let's also say that there are guys who, with our line play, could perform well at QB. Let's say our OL is average - the 16-th best unit out of 32.

There's room to grow by 10 TDs with a journeyman (18 passing TDs), by 20 TDs with a slightly above average guy, and by 40 if we somehow get a Brady 07 type jackpot season out of somebody. In fact, Brady improved 26 passing TDs (24 to 50) year over year in his 2007 season. An improvement of 26 passing TDs only demands that we get 34 TDs out of our QB next year. That's high-ish, but not historically high.

Do we really need elite numbers to get back in the playoffs--preferably, to go deep in the playoffs--after winning 7 games on 8 TD throws in 2020, almost 1 per touchdown thrown? The simple-minded approach would be to say that a number of TDs in the teens -- all else being equal -- gets you to 11 wins. That's perhaps too simple to even use in analogy-land, but I hope the point isn't totally without relevance.

Point being, we went from a guy who has been, in his time, record-setting good, to nearly record-setting bad. A lot of guys get us multiple additional wins over 2020. I'm not even dead-set against Cam coming back, if there are injury recovery questions I don't understand and it's reasonable to think he'll put up 20 passing TDs instead of 8... though on the butterfly scale, that one ranks at top-of-roller-coaster-and-descending. Make him play 2nd chair if we see him again.

As for replacing running TDs from the QB position? Not a need unless your QB can't pass. It's a wannahave, not a gottahave. There are guys called running backs. They run the ball for a living. If you're really an RPO type guy/athletic freak, fine. Very on-trend. But between the two, give me an immobile QB who can pass, not a mobile QB who can't.

And get us a journeyman who can get the job done, if drafting the next "franchise" is not in the cards. Competence is the bar, not excellence, and probably puts us back in the playoffs, given the 2020 floor of 8 passing TDs.

And to the point of what BB might think? He might think that to get somebody really special, you have to keep fishing for a long time... and that meanwhile, you want excellence across the roster, all things taken together -- the value proposition, not the need-ism it's so tempting to go with. Just don't have a weakness of that enormity to try to make up for.
 

VJCPatriot

Pro Bowl Player
Trey Lance? 50% completion rate in college. He gives me a Spurgeon Wynn vibe. I'd rather go for an accurate passer and good decision maker like Mac Jones. Mac isn't as athletic but I have more confidence he fits with the Pats offensive system and won't kill you with turnovers.

The question with Lance is what are you going to get. The guy from 2019 who threw 28 TDs and 0 INTs or the guy from 2020 who only completed 50% of his passes?
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Trey Lance? 50% completion rate in college. He gives me a Spurgeon Wynn vibe. I'd rather go for an accurate passer and good decision maker like Mac Jones. Mac isn't as athletic but I have more confidence he fits with the Pats offensive system and won't kill you with turnovers.

The question with Lance is what are you going to get. The guy from 2019 who threw 28 TDs and 0 INTs or the guy from 2020 who only completed 50% of his passes?
 

patsfanfromoversea

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
I can't read your respond but you probably mentioned that Lance only played one game in 2020 for the draft cause their Division did opt out due covid.
So @VJCPatriot i think you can't really base on his completion percentage on that one game that he is Not accurate. He is no Jones in accuracy i agree on this but reason for this is their offense scheme and lance play style. Lance attacks a lot and those Balls are more incomplete than slants, wr screens or swings to top WR. More than 50 percent of Jones yards Come from yards after catch. Mahomes as well but that does only translate if you have a crazy offense like Kansas
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
I can't read your respond but you probably mentioned that Lance only played one game in 2020 for the draft cause their Division did opt out due covid.
So @VJCPatriot i think you can't really base on his completion percentage on that one game that he is Not accurate. He is no Jones in accuracy i agree on this but reason for this is their offense scheme and lance play style. Lance attacks a lot and those Balls are more incomplete than slants, wr screens or swings to top WR. More than 50 percent of Jones yards Come from yards after catch. Mahomes as well but that does only translate if you have a crazy offense like Kansas
Exactly and he wasn't bad at all in the set up - exhibition, w/e you want to call it. Certainly doesn't hold more weight than what he did before and doesn't change the fact that he's a small project, as is Wilson and everyone else.

I think he had 4 total TD and 300 total yards? Either way, he certainly wasn't bad.
 

patsfanfromoversea

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Exactly and he wasn't bad at all in the set up - exhibition, w/e you want to call it. Certainly doesn't hold more weight than what he did before and doesn't change the fact that he's a small project, as is Wilson and everyone else.

I think he had 4 total TD and 300 total yards? Either way, he certainly wasn't bad.
Yeah I think somewhere around that. I think two pass TD and rush TD one INT and somewhere the same pass and rush yards. They probably did not train together a lot before either. I can't imagine it was allowed.
 

Kontradiction

Dr. P-ussy
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2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
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Collins would easily be my 1B behind Parsons, and could easily leapfrog Parsons the more I study him before the draft. I’m not so sure about Lance, though. I saw some that I liked (no INTs, generally smart with the football) and some that I didn’t (level of competition, his running style doesn’t spell a long career in the NFL). I, personally, wouldn’t use 15 on him. There’s just not enough film there to justify him doing so. I like Wilson the best in the draft. Well, outside of Lawrence, who won’t be there. If he’s not there, I’m looking at DT or Jones with 15.
 

PatsFanInVa

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
So I use the term PTP (Patriot-Type Prospect/Player) to identify guys I think are fits here. Every team has their preferences but obviously it's different when it comes to Bill. People always talk about how hard it is to gage where his head is at so I gave it shot.

Last year I made a board (Reportedly NEP have a board between 75-120 names of so. I have to believe it varies a little depending on the actual draft itself that given year. I think I had 120 prospects give or take) of what I thought a Pats board would look like. I had Dugger, Onwenu, Keene, Lewerke, Asiasi, Bryant and Uche. So that's what I mean by the 7.

Before that I had a similar board with Sony, Wynn, Crossen, Duke. Had Harris, Stid, Wino, Froholdt identified as PTP as well. I had Michael Jackson and De'Jon Harris on my sheet from 2018-19 as well.

I've posted the boards a few times and still have them. They're still here somewhere. I posted screenshots, there's a small piece on nepatriotsdraft with Stidham and others.
cool, I wasn't poking holes, I just wanted to get the terms down. Anything that shows a significant predictive value above "guess" is mighty impressive work by my lights (dim as they are.)
 

Taxed in Maine

On the Game Day Roster
That was my first thought, but as someone who was a big fan of Lamar in college, he was clearly a work in progress as a thrower, not even hitting 60% on his throws in his final season. I've only watched a few high and lowlights of Lance, but I'm guessing he's a better decision maker and thrower, but as we all know he's only had that 1 season (plus one 50% 2020 game).

I feel like his last game will give insight into what he'll be like in the pros at least early on (2TDs/1 bad decision INT/2Rush TDs/ 149ydsThrow/143ydsRush):


I don't see a First Round QB in that video. Not even close. 3rd or 4th round maybe, and that's only on potential. He's going to be a major project.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Collins would easily be my 1B behind Parsons, and could easily leapfrog Parsons the more I study him before the draft. I’m not so sure about Lance, though. I saw some that I liked (no INTs, generally smart with the football) and some that I didn’t (level of competition, his running style doesn’t spell a long career in the NFL). I, personally, wouldn’t use 15 on him. There’s just not enough film there to justify him doing so. I like Wilson the best in the draft. Well, outside of Lawrence, who won’t be there. If he’s not there, I’m looking at DT or Jones with 15.
I have them graded almost identical. I'd be thrilled if we landed either.

I found that both share some of the same concerns despite being different.

Level of comp was trash for both though. Most want to ignore this with Wilson but neither faced real comp. I think he's a little better equipped to handle a real, NFL defense but those questions are real and fair.

Both have trouble deciphering and working through disguise post-snap (Deep/MOF, Condensed areas)

You can tell Wilson has been watching and emulating Mahomes. The drifting backwards, turning his back to the defense/rush, sloppy footwork (probably the least of these concerns for me but it's there at times)

Again I'd be thrilled with one or the other. I just don't think there's that much more risk Lance as opposed to Wilson or even Fields.
 

Kontradiction

Dr. P-ussy
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2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
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I have them graded almost identical. I'd be thrilled if we landed either.

I found that both share some of the same concerns despite being different.

Level of comp was trash for both though. Most want to ignore this with Wilson but neither faced real comp. I think he's a little better equipped to handle a real, NFL defense but those questions are real and fair.

Both have trouble deciphering and working through disguise post-snap (Deep/MOF, Condensed areas)

You can tell Wilson has been watching and emulating Mahomes. The drifting backwards, turning his back to the defense/rush, sloppy footwork (probably the least of these concerns for me but it's there at times)

Again I'd be thrilled with one or the other. I just don't think there's that much more risk Lance as opposed to Wilson or even Fields.
Yeah, the ONLY reason I have Wilson ahead of Lance is because there’s more of a body of work to judge. That’s pretty much it.
 

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