I wouldnt be stunned.
While I wouldnt PREDICT a blowout, an otherwise close matchup can easily snowball into a blowout based on how the game starts.
This is the type of game that does have the ability to snowball into one.
The Jags want to run the ball. We have been the best run D in the NFL over the last month and a hlaf or so, by a wide marign. In fact, we may have been the best run D in the NFL in the last 5 years since the Chief game, (not counting of course the Miami game where the taxi squad played).
I wouldnt be surpirsed at all if the Jags come out trying to establish the run. I wouldnt be surprised to see something like 6 carries for 8 yards in their first 3 drives. 3rd and long allows us to bring pressure, and that pressure can get 3 and outs, or turnovers.
One of the reasons we have not been a 'blowout team' through ourt dynasty is confidence in the defense. When we get ahead, we replace urgency to score with more emphasis on being conservative and not allowing the other team to get back in the game. Example: IMO, over the last 3 years Tom Brady is unquestionably the best 3rd and long QB in the NFL. When we are playing from ahead, we check down, or even run a draw in those situations. We arent trying not to get the first down, but ruinning a safer play with less of a chance of moving the sticks, accepting that with our D and a lead a punt isnt a bad thing. We also, until the second half of this year were extremely conmservative about going for it on 4th down.
Lately we have gone for the 4th down, and they have been almost automatic too.
IMO, Belichick coaches differently in the playoffs. He has said as much. I think his quote was something like "In a playoff game you never want to walk off the field saying you lost because you did things that arent what you do best". IMO, Belichick has seen enough struggle throughout the year on defense that, even though the D is playing superbly now, in the back of his mind he fears a breakdown when protecting a lead. I think you are going to see Belichick be more aggressive on offense with a lead than you have ever seen before.
I dont think its really a lack of confidence in the defense as much as a greater possibility that a team can get back in the game quickly. I think BBs playoff gameplans will be to go for the throat with the lead. I KNOW he will be perfectly happy putting his fortunes in Tom Bradys hands.
If we stifle the run, and shut down the first 3-4 drives to basically nothing, and capitalize on offense, (I can certainly see the approach that long clock eating drives will be beneficial, but I believe they will turn into drives that start out chewing the clock, then go to the end zone) we will take away their ability to run, turn loose the dogs and have Jacksonville facing sacks, turnovers, or just plays where the QB doesn't have the time to get the ball where he wants it to go.
If the game follows this path, it will be a blowout. We'll get up early, stay aggressive on both sides of the ball, then dumb it down and ride out the clock when the lead is insurmountable.
I think that these factors combine to make the chance of Patriot blowouts in the playoffs more likely than ever. We may be playing for the blowout when it position to do it, where in the past, we played to maintain a lead, and get to the 60 minute mark.
