Money and cap considerations: another year of Brady or ... ?

[Boomer B]

I believe if Brady will take a 1 year 20m dollar deal to come back for one last go at it, you've got to sign him. Then provide him real weapons for success. This year was a setup for failure. This OL has looked its worse in years. The wide receiver corps was piss poor outside of lone Julian Edelman who got doubled the majority of all the games. We had no Tight End. Michel came off a regression year. And who was our fullback?

I say resign Brady 1 year 20m. Sign Derrick Henry, he's Corey Dillon 2.0, get some serious offensive tools for Brady: a talented OL, a real TE, a competent WR to take pressure off Edelman. And you will see a rejuvenation of this Patriots team. We have been just so spoiled for so long, BB thought he could duct tape together an offensive solution with table scraps, but it just wouldn't do this time around.

The Patriots can make a serious title run if they give Brady a year with the proper tools and talent around him. The other route is to give up next year, go into full rebuild mode, and let the Chargers get a big piece, Brady, to round out a talented overall team.

Me I'd rather go for one more year. The defense can continue to be good without that many additional pieces. It is the offense that needs the 'total makeover'. And Brady is still capable of driving a Formula 1 car, the problem is that BB saddled him with a Chevy Nova to race against true race cars.

Despite having the fewest weapons I've seen him have in years, Brady still amassed 4,057 yards passing 24 TDs and only 8 INTs. Let's give Brady a real shot next year! One more go! Bring on Brady's true Revenge Tour in 2020!

While I would love Derek Henry he’s looking at a $15m+ per year deal. Where we getting that much cap space with others to sign? He’ll likely redo with the Titans or get tagged.

 

[n6249c]

There is absolutely no reason to think that the guy on the bench is better. I asked in this thread why besides he's on our team that people think he could fill in and it came down to basically that Belichick was the coach, which is another way of saying he's on the team.

It's generic talk you hear from every fanbase upset with their offense. It's the grass is greener mentality. Stidham is just a unicorn at this point that people think could be the answer because he is a total unknown.

Thanks for the clarification. It’s now obvious that you’re hopelessly blind to the fact that you’ve got nothing more to go on than the folks you say have nothing.

You’ve got no way to know how he’s responded to coaching, or for that matter for his one short exposure to real game action. You choose to assume the worst, while dismissing any assumptions that differ from yours, when there’s no real way to tell the difference.

 

[mgteich]

Just so you braintrusts know, Brady was far and away our best offensive player tonight. Not even close

Many of the OL's had fine games. Brady often had forever to throw. Plus, their blocking on screens was exceptional.

 

[lancerman]

Thanks for the clarification. It’s now obvious that you’re hopelessly blind to the fact that you’ve got nothing more to go on than the folks you say have nothing.

You’ve got no way to know how he’s responded to coaching, or for that matter for his one short exposure to real game action. You choose to assume the worst, while dismissing any assumptions that differ from yours, when there’s no real way to tell the difference.

no you are just being a homer.

My point: There is no evidence that Stidham could be the starter for this team.

Do you have one solitary reason to think Stidham would play well besides wishful thinking because he is on the team.

No it's the same wishful thinking every NFL fanbases deludes themselves into thinking when there is uncertainty at QB.

You have nothing to justify believing in Stidham

 

[Tunescribe]

no you are just being a homer.

My point: There is no evidence that Stidham could be the starter for this team.

Do you have one solitary reason to think Stidham would play well besides wishful thinking because he is on the team.

No it's the same wishful thinking every NFL fanbases deludes themselves into thinking when there is uncertainty at QB.

You have nothing to justify believing in Stidham

What you're doing is flat-out admitting you don't know what you're looking at, what to look for, or how/where to get information about (1) what assets make a quarterback competitive at the pro level and (2) what's happening with people on the team you purport to follow. It's embarrassing and you keep doubling down on embarrassment. Please stop.

 

[Ross12]

no you are just being a homer.

My point: There is no evidence that Stidham could be the starter for this team.

Do you have one solitary reason to think Stidham would play well besides wishful thinking because he is on the team.

No it's the same wishful thinking every NFL fanbases deludes themselves into thinking when there is uncertainty at QB.

You have nothing to justify believing in Stidham

I think several people have said they are basing their thought process on Stidham being a possible replacement on the praises that BB has given him. I wouldn’t call that “nothing”. It’s more substantial than the reasons given thus far for the opposite stance, which is “he threw one INT one time a while back”.

I don’t really see where the argument’s going, y’know?

 

[lancerman]

What you're doing is flat-out admitting you don't know what you're looking at, what to look for, or how/where to get information about (1) what assets make a quarterback competitive at the pro level and (2) what's happening with people on the team you purport to follow. It's embarrassing and you keep doubling down on embarrassment. Please stop.

I gave you and everyone here ample opportunity to explain what you saw in Stidham that made you think he could lead this team.

You elected to spend more of your time arguing about what information I lacked rather than support any proposition that he could do what you seem to think he can. Even now you were incredibly transparent in the fact that you tried to list a bunch of aspects of understanding play but not going into any worthwhile specifics that would support an argument you felt the need to respond several times to.

If you had a strong argument for Stidham, the fact is you would have brought it.

The gaslighting in your last few sentences is quite frankly troublesome and I think you should take a break before you tell anyone to stop because your whole post was quite shallow and lacked any substance and it appears you just want to ramble because you don't like what you heard.

You had your chance to support your argument, you didn't want to for whatever reason. Can't help you anymore

 

[lancerman]

I think several people have said they are basing their thought process on Stidham being a possible replacement on the praises that BB has given him. I wouldn’t call that “nothing”. It’s more substantial than the reasons given thus far for the opposite stance, which is “he threw one INT one time a while back”.

I don’t really see where the argument’s going, y’know?

Belichick praises all of his players. He praised Jacoby Brissett. And guess what, Jacoby was on a team everyone thought was stacked and would be a SB contender if they had a real starting QB and he failed. Belichick praised Cassel. He failed as a starter as well. He's praised plenty of players who didn't cut it.

Again whatever you think of the sample size I gave, it's actual in game data in an NFL environment. It's not based off the coach who praises everyone, praising him, or some wishful thinking that because he's the back up on our team he is magically a starter.

There is no reason to think he is the guy. We don't have much data on him, and in the limited amount we do, it's not good.

 

[Tunescribe]

I gave you and everyone here ample opportunity to explain what you saw in Stidham that made you think he could lead this team.

You elected to spend more of your time arguing about what information I lacked rather than support any proposition that he could do what you seem to think he can. Even now you were incredibly transparent in the fact that you tried to list a bunch of aspects of understanding play but not going into any worthwhile specifics that would support an argument you felt the need to respond several times to.

If you had a strong argument for Stidham, the fact is you would have brought it.

The gaslighting in your last few sentences is quite frankly troublesome and I think you should take a break before you tell anyone to stop because your whole post was quite shallow and lacked any substance and it appears you just want to ramble because you don't like what you heard.

You had your chance to support your argument, you didn't want to for whatever reason. Can't help you anymore

When you believe the mob is amassed against you and find yourself shouting at it defiantly, it's prudent to pause and reconsider whether the mob has a point.

What is known: Stidham has excellent mechanics, a quick release, is accurate, possesses good field vision and mobility. He showed great courage in his last season at Auburn throwing behind a porous offensive line. He had an exceptional 2019 preseason for the Patriots completing 68 percent of his passes with four touchdowns to one interception compiling a lofty QBR of 102.6. Additionally, he had 17 rushing attempts for a 4.3-yard average.

Recently, Stidham has earned praise from BB and teammates working with the first offense against the first defense in practice on Tom Brady's rest days. Article link: Perry: Jarrett Stidham quietly making a positive impression

If you followed the team more closely you'd know these things and maybe feel at least a little encouraged that the Patriots have a possible heir-in-process to the GOAT. Perhaps he will get the chance to prove himself worthy.

 

[lancerman]

When you believe the mob is amassed against you and find yourself shouting at it defiantly, it's prudent to pause and reconsider whether the mob has a point.

What is known: Stidham has excellent mechanics, a quick release, is accurate, possesses good field vision and mobility. He showed great courage in his last season at Auburn throwing behind a porous offensive line. He had an exceptional 2019 preseason for the Patriots completing 68 percent of his passes with four touchdowns to one interception compiling a lofty QBR of 102.6. Additionally, he had 17 rushing attempts for a 4.3-yard average.

Recently, Stidham has earned praise from BB and teammates working with the first offense against the first defense in practice on Tom Brady's rest days. Article link: Perry: Jarrett Stidham quietly making a positive impression

If you followed the team more closely you'd know these things and maybe feel at least a little encouraged that the Patriots have a possible heir-in-process to the GOAT. Perhaps he will get the chance to prove himself worthy.

Dude I watched Auburn, you're listing stats. He was decent but he wasn't some promising stud there. He has decent mechanics (excellent is a stretch) , completion percentage is entirely, QBR is a **** stat and I can go into a million reasons why, but most people won't take anyone seriously who actually uses it. Also we've seen plenty of players do well in the pre season. It's a controlled environment. Meyers did as well, that didn't turn out as well as we hoped. The one time we saw Stidham outside of that controlled envoronment, he looked awful like he didn't belong out there.

But that was better than your last post (even though you couldn't help yourself by talking about how the mob agrees with you, which opens up it's own can of worms).

Either way, I'm more than confidant that he won't be and you'll have an excuse later.

So far you listed that Belichick praised him (he's praised QB's before who didn't make it as a starter), that he looked good in pre season (saw this not work multiple times), and cited a crappy stat. Other things are subjective (mechanics and how he did at Auburn).

But at least you tried this time.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

I think you are not looking at QBR (which most experts think is a better measure of QB performance than "passer rating"). See below. QBR was not developed or used un til 2011 , before that it was simply called passer rating

Here are Brady's QBR from 2013 to 2019:

2013 62.1
2014 76.2
2015 68
2016 79.1
2017 73.2
2018 66.6
2019 52.5


Now you may say,"stats are for losers" or you may say "stats don't lie". I believe they don't lie.
These data suggest that over the past 4 years, using the best statistic available for measuring QB performance, he has had a consistent and fairly steep decline in his QB performance as measured by QBR.
This matches up with most peoples unbiased observations.


As an FYI:



QBR=
It incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties. Since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team's level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context, then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammates to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency. It was created to be a more meaningful alternative to the passer rating but has been met with criticism among fans and commentators alike.


Passer Rating= depends only on passing statistics statistics rather than an analysis of each play a quarterback is involved in


According to ESPN, QBR is a more complete and meaningful alternative to the passer rating, which remains the official NFL measure of quarterback performance

My issue with QBR is that it is a truism created by BSPN. It back-calculates from the things that win games for teams to a assign a value to a player as a means of promoting the star power than turns a profit in the sports entertainment industry. It's essentially a combined win percentage added/expected points added (WPA/EPA) statistic that BSPN created, dressed-up, and doctored to focus on QBs to reward QBs who make big plays in the 4th quarter to win games higher. QBs who make big plays in the first quarter on teams with great defenses and then manage the game don't get rewarded. QBs with receivers who can make ridiculous catches when the game forces them to throw with reckless abandon get higher scores, because scoring in the 4th quarter raises your WPA more than it does earlier in the game.

With a weak OL that can't hold-up consistently when the defense knows a pass is coming and receivers that can't get enough separation, no QB - not Brady, not Mahomes, not Rogers is going to do well in QBR - not even with a 85 Bears front 7 and the 2019 Pats secondary. Brady's QBR was down last year, because they won so many of their games by running the ball. It's down this year, because the passing game sucked, even when he was throwing strikes.

 

[Tunescribe]

Dude I watched Auburn, you're listing stats. He was decent but he wasn't some promising stud there. He has decent mechanics (excellent is a stretch) , completion percentage is entirely, QBR is a **** stat and I can go into a million reasons why, but most people won't take anyone seriously who actually uses it. Also we've seen plenty of players do well in the pre season. It's a controlled environment. Meyers did as well, that didn't turn out as well as we hoped. The one time we saw Stidham outside of that controlled envoronment, he looked awful like he didn't belong out there.

But that was better than your last post (even though you couldn't help yourself by talking about how the mob agrees with you, which opens up it's own can of worms).

Either way, I'm more than confidant that he won't be and you'll have an excuse later.

So far you listed that Belichick praised him (he's praised QB's before who didn't make it as a starter), that he looked good in pre season (saw this not work multiple times), and cited a crappy stat. Other things are subjective (mechanics and how he did at Auburn).

But at least you tried this time.

What a time-waster you are. Yes, I tried (apparently in vain) which brings us back to post No. 265 -- fundamental basics elude you. Moving on.

 

[farn]

All decisions should be based on winning the SB. Do they think they can reload and make a run in 2020 ? If so, try to keep it rolling. Is it to the point where it’s very highly unlikely this group can legitimately contend ? If so, time to make changes. All decisions should be based on the SB : winning it or building towards it.

 

[mgteich]

After your done posts, you still question whether Belichick will even give Stidham a chance to prove himself?

I think that Stidham has very little chance of being out #1 QB in 2020, whether Tom stays or not. HOWEVER, I certainly think that Stidham will be given a chance to prove himself.

.Perhaps he will get the chance to prove himself worthy.

 

[Tunescribe]

MG, please note: your posts would be more easily followed if you included the post you're addressing at the TOP instead of bottom. You're the only member here who responds that way and it's always like reading the answer before the question. Thanks.

After your done posts, you still question whether Belichick will even give Stidham a chance to prove himself?

I don't understand your question. I wasn't making predictions about the kid one way or the other, just trying to relate that what he has shown to date appears encouraging.

I think that Stidham has very little chance of being out #1 QB in 2020, whether Tom stays or not.

If Tom doesn't stay he would appear to have the inside track, but you apparently have someone else in mind.

HOWEVER, I certainly think that Stidham will be given a chance to prove himself.

That is all a player who rode the bench his rookie year can hope for.

 

[ohiopatsfan]

I can't see 2020 as a season with a Super Bowl at the end of the year. There are too many holes, the schedule will be very tough and there are several key free agents with not much cap space to sign them. That said, TB 's dead cap hit makes it financially infeasible to let him go. I say sign him for 1 more year to help get Stidham ready, use restructures to free cap space and rebuild.

 

[primetime]

I can't see 2020 as a season with a Super Bowl at the end of the year. There are too many holes, the schedule will be very tough and there are several key free agents with not much cap space to sign them. That said, TB 's dead cap hit makes it financially infeasible to let him go. I say sign him for 1 more year to help get Stidham ready, use restructures to free cap space and rebuild.

Well, the dead cap is dead regardless of whether they re-sign him or not. The contract voids, they'd have to sign him to a new one.

 

[Ross12]

Belichick praises all of his players. He praised Jacoby Brissett. And guess what, Jacoby was on a team everyone thought was stacked and would be a SB contender if they had a real starting QB and he failed. Belichick praised Cassel. He failed as a starter as well. He's praised plenty of players who didn't cut it.

Again whatever you think of the sample size I gave, it's actual in game data in an NFL environment. It's not based off the coach who praises everyone, praising him, or some wishful thinking that because he's the back up on our team he is magically a starter.

There is no reason to think he is the guy. We don't have much data on him, and in the limited amount we do, it's not good.

But he’s praising the player while the player is working with the first team in place of Brady for an extended period. That’s pretty different from “Brissett is doing a good job on the scout team” etc.

I also don’t think it makes a lot of sense to say Bill praises player X and then player X is not successful somewhere else. Bill and the Patriots organization have nothing to do with that and it doesn’t really support an argument that Stidham can’t be a competent QB in NE because other QBs from NE weren’t lights-out in other places besides NE (but won games in NE themselves).

 

[primetime]

Brissett was good before he chewed up his knee midway through the year and Hilton was playing hurt.

 

[lancerman]

But he’s praising the player while the player is working with the first team in place of Brady for an extended period. That’s pretty different from “Brissett is doing a good job on the scout team” etc.

I also don’t think it makes a lot of sense to say Bill praises player X and then player X is not successful somewhere else. Bill and the Patriots organization have nothing to do with that and it doesn’t really support an argument that Stidham can’t be a competent QB in NE because other QBs from NE weren’t lights-out in other places besides NE (but won games in NE themselves).

He practically cried about how much he loved Jacoby Brissett after the Texans game, then Brissett got shut out, and then we traded him the next year, and then failed on a very talented Colts team.

So all that praise didn't really amount to much.