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Many Want A Defensive Front Six Player At 21: Will Anyone There Be Worth the Pick

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BTTA

He/Him
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I'm all for drafting defense on all levels- especially since our div rival and IMO AFC favorite to make it to the Super Bowl didn't have to punt vs us in 8 quarters and scored 80 points in 2 games.

They've definitely got the Pats' number on D. Hopefully it is just a couple of adjustments/players that eliminate the key advantages the Bills have figured out. But I don't know anything much about football at that level; just come here to post stuff so I can feel like I do.
 

RobertWeathers

Author of the Port Huron Statement
They've definitely got the Pats' number on D. Hopefully it is just a couple of adjustments/players that eliminate the key advantages the Bills have figured out. But I don't know anything much about football at that level; just come here to post stuff so I can feel like I do.
Everyone is in the same boat but it doesn't take an expert to see we are not good in man coverage, sketchy defending the run, have an inconsistent pass rush and a bit sluggish defending sideline-to-sideline in pursuit and the RPO.

Scheme is a part of it b/c we played a ton of zone and a lot of man coverage off the ball. That partly due to lack of sticky DBs and hot n cold pass rush
 

Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
Every day goes by and I'm increasingly convinced we need more pass rush, more pass rush, more pass rush.

The problem is that the run on them early means they would almost certainly either have to reach for one, or take a guy like Ojabo, who won’t be ready until mid season. It’s more likely they go there after the first, and they could double dip at the position on day two and three.
 

Wozzy

In the Starting Line-Up
The offense is fine, the defense needs a lot of help. They have 8 picks. Build from the front back.

There are plenty of great players in the draft, I don’t understand the notion that by pick 21 there will be nobody available… it’s absurd.
 

WaterfallJumper

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
BTW- Did anyone else notice that Stingley's 3 cone time was a VERY pedestrian slightly less than a 6.9 In fact IIRC it was about the same as the one Jordan Davis ran. Granted it would be delicious karma if he were to land with us.

6.9 is just about the average for CB (6.93 I believe). It's not bad at all. He clearly shows plenty of agility on the field. As far as I know, Davis didn't run the 3-cone. That would be an all time record for a big man.

As for the thread title: Yes, of course there will be front-6 players worth picking. The real question is the opportunity cost. Do we take a top LB and settle for a mediocre CB later on? Or do we try to get a premium player before the positional drop off, and get a "good enough" player at another position in the mid rounds? I see a lot of linebackers who could play here, even if they're not perfect. I don't see a lot of nose tackles or corners who are obvious upgrades, however.
 

Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
Davis or trade down for Quay Walker if we’re talking specifically front six players. Davis specifically would fix so many issues this team has, though.

I agree, Davis is the guy I want the most in this draft, and for that reason, but the likelihood of him being there is close to zero, and they can still get a NT on day two.. Walker in the second round would be a great pick, but they would orobably have to move up to get him. Christian Harris would be another good addition in the second round.
 

Sicilian

Pro Bowl Player
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Davis or trade down for Quay Walker if we’re talking specifically front six players. Davis specifically would fix so many issues this team has, though.

If we're going to go to smaller, more agile linebackers, beefing up the DL to keep guards from reaching them in the second level would be huge (no pun intended). Davis would certainly go a long way there. If he's there, I don't think Bill passes on him.
 

mgteich

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PatsFans.com Supporter
Every year there are around 6-10 can't miss players in the draft. After that there are about 40 who fall into the category that is wider. .
Yes, this is a popular paradigm.

Another is that there are blue chip players (the first 6 or so plus QB's who may be can't miss merely because they are QB's.

The difference in analysis in about red chips players. These are clearly first round grade players who are on your board.

I don't agree that after the top 10, there is little difference between 11 and 45. I do indeed agree that this could be true if there are no players graded highly on a team board. For example, I don't think that Booth (or insert your choice) is a blue chip player by any stretch. However, I think that the top CB on our board at 11 (after the don't miss players) is very, very likely to be much better than corners available in the middle of the second round. And even if thought that corners in the 40's were almost as good, we would need to trade up to get that corner. To me, if there is a clear 1st round corner from our team board available at 21, we won't trade down. I agree that there are others that may be rated even higher than the corner, in which case, we might trade down 2-5 spots.

So, my bottom line is that I expect several 1st rounders from our board to be available at 21. If there are enough, a small trade down within the first MAY be in order. However, for me, there will be a serious difference from the first round players on our board and those available in the mid second round.
 

mgteich

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I would like to see them bring Hightower back and put him on the edge and leave him there. Opposite Judon that would be a dominating edge.
Hightower never got the chance to just play there full time and wreak havoc, because his versatility was so valuable but after losing a step, that would be a great role for him.
I suspect that discussions have been held with several of the dozen former patriots still out there for possible signing after the draft. I agree that Hightower would help, as would Gilmore, Flowers, Hicks and perhaps even Van Noy.

Folks point out that these vets are not who they used to be. I agree. I'm fine with a 1st or 2nd rounder on the EDGE. However, for now we have Judon, Perkins and Uche. It is certainly reasonable to believe that one of the vets would be a major upgrade over Uche.
 

DW Toys

In the Starting Line-Up
I think the pass rush is on the team is okay, the problem is that we cannot stop the run and our pass rushers are just worn out
O.K. Cousin....here goes.
We all have discussed the anxiety of a BB Draft. Was 2021 an outlier?

I am sure we can examine BB's trades as more of his forte than the Draft. But how ironic the Draft got better when Director of player personnel – Nick Caserio and Director of college scouting – Monti Ossenfort left.

Parker this year was a case in point. WR was and is needed but he can expand his target priorities to other positions. It used to be the big motto in the NFL to Draft the best player available at your pick.....not today. You have to be cognoscente of Team needs in the immediate future because of free agency and CAP. Even if you don't admit it you have to target roster holes. O.K. better Teams less holes.

I will get to the point. There are three other move Bill can make that can sacrifice lower picks for players that can play now. You don't get that in the Draft. Take Harry for example. 1st round Draft pick. Talented but maybe he plays better elsewhere. Look at players from other Teams who were lackluster on those first Teams that Drafted them but became better players on the Pats. Think of Vrabel and Van Noy or even Welker who did not become a star until BB......Trades

I will give you three cases that can be of benefit to the Pats roster yet not cost us serious Draft wampum. I will take these in place of the lower Draft picks we would give up because they can play or at the least have better potential to contribute in 2022. Keep this is mind. The analysis has show that the average success of every NFL Draft per Team is 17%-19%. This is summarized over a fair three year evaluation. In quick terms it means that after three years only two of your picks will still be on the roster as significant contributors. If only one make it it's 14% but the weaker Teams have more of their Drafted players stick on the roster so it kind of taints the numbers.

  • 1 Clelin Ferrell DE/DT Raiders. Can be effective setting the edge whereas our D Line was awful in 2021. A top Draft pick (4th). Was Drafted to be a pass rusher and he is better at run defense. A little light in weight from what the Pats do but remember the role that Trey Flowers did at DE/DT in his best year here. The surprising figure people do not realize is he had 20 QB pressures in 2020 and 15 last year in a diminished role as a rotation guy. The kid fits the Pats mold. He comes from a military family. He was a round peg/square hole in Las Vegas. He's young. $4.7mm base salary this year that jumps over double in 2023 if you do a year 5 with him, so you take a decision. 6'5" and bout 270lbs EXAMPLE:Defensive end Kwity Paye, the 21st overall pick by Indianapolis, was the first player taken in the first round to sign. His fully guaranteed four-year rookie contract should be worth $13,644,834, which included a $7,283,516 signing bonus. He also played well against us.


Perhaps Trade a fifth rounder for Ferrell

  • 2 Laviska Shenault WR. Jaguars. The Jags signed three receivers in FA. Kind of the same situation as Parker. He had 63 receptions on a bad Team in 2021. He is "Deeboesque" in the slot 6'1" 227lbs. Can play outside. Would be our second best WR immediately. Young and cheap $1.8mm. Can return kicks. No excuse on this one to not invest. Can be a little bit of a head problem but not as nuts as AB or Chad. So was Randy. Look at this kid's tape and tell me he isn't a find for Bill. He's a taste acquired.


Perhaps Trade a sixth Rounder for Shenault

Watch this:

  • 3 Andy Isabella WR. Cardinals. We've beat this one to death. We need speed. Cheap $1.2mm



Perhaps Trade a sixth Rounder for Isabella

We won't get them all but I'd rather have these three than lower picks because they can play now.
DW Toys
 
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ivanvamp

In the Starting Line-Up
Travis Jones of Connecticut is an absolute monster. 6'4", 333 lbs, runs a 4.92 in the 40. Incredible. Unbelievable power.

He should be available in the first round, but I'm not positive he's worth a selection there. But if he is available and might still be available in the early 2nd, I might consider trading down from #21 to get Jones in the early 2nd, while adding another 2nd or 3rd round pick as well.
 

Mark Morse

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I Want a New Thread (stolen: I Want a New Drug - Huey Lewis)

I want a new thread
One that won't make me sick
One that won't make me crash my PC
Or make me feel like a worthless dick

I want a new thread
One that won't hurt my head
One that won't make my drink vermouth
Or make my eyes too red

One that won't make me nervous
Wondering what we'll do
One that makes me feel like I felt when BB picked
Mankins at 32.

I want a new thread
One that won't kill
Our cap, doesn't cost too much
of Draft capital

I want a new thread
One that won't go away
One that won't keep me up all night
One that won't make me sleep all day

One that won't make me nervous
Wondering what we'll do
One that makes me feel like a PF draft guru
When I'm here with you
I'm here with you, BCG

I want a new thread
One that does what it should
One that won't make me feel too bad
One that won't make me feel too good

I want a new thread
One with no doubt
One that won't make me talk to myself
Or make me scream out loud

One that won't make me nervous
Wondering what to do
One that makes me feel like I feel when I'm with you
When I'm here with you
I'm here with you
Clever
 

BaconGrundleCandy

Not the kind of guy to say I told you so ...
PatsFans.com Supporter
Every year there are around 6-10 can't miss players in the draft. After that there are about 40 who fall into the category that is wider. Could be an all pro, could just be an OK starter, OR, like EVERY draft pick, could fail miserably. It is such a crap shoot for the guys who actually are PAID to find new players every year, yet we amateurs have it down to a science and through the lens of 20-20 hindsight NEVER make mistakes.

AS one of those amateurs, I'm hoping we pass on that WR everyone seems to feel the need for, and look for a capable DT and CB for our first 2 picks. In my dream world we trade down and wind up with ANY of the so called 2nd tier CB's and Travis Jones in the 2nd and a WR and LB with the extra third we pick up with the trade.

BTW- Did anyone else notice that Stingley's 3 cone time was a VERY pedestrian slightly less than a 6.9 In fact IIRC it was about the same as the one Jordan Davis ran. Granted it would be delicious karma if he were to land with us.
This year there's little difference between #1 & 25.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

Not the kind of guy to say I told you so ...
PatsFans.com Supporter
I just addressed that. It’s draft month and the draft is by far the primary discussion right now. There’s nothing else going on for the next month so it’s absolutely no harm at all.
Agreed but the OP is almost useless. "Will anyone there be worth the pick" lol just think we could do better but I understand it's draft time. We don't need more useless threads though.

Many want an offensive prospect. Will anyone there be worth the pick? Many are asking...
 
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Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
Agreed but the OP is almost useless. "Will anyone there be worth the pick" lol just think we could do better but I understand it's draft time. We don't need more useless threads though.

Many want an offensive prospect. Will anyone there be worth the pick? Many are asking...

Disagree on this BGC. I actually think this a the most realistic way to look at the prospects. Eliminate the ones who are almost guaranteed to be gone, make a list of those remaining, and basically make a proxy list of who you would take, why, snd whether to make the pick, trade up, or trade down.

I appreciate all the work you and some of the other hard core draftniks do, and I think this board has one of the best draft forums there is, but the comprehensive thread posted here is simply too long and unwieldy to deal with. Every time I click on it I end up halfway through, and I would have to forward 50x just to get to most recent posts. Jump to newest doesn’t work. I think a series of position posts would be helpful for the month of April, with about a week to recap, otherwise known as letting the most miserable here cry about another draft without their binkies. Then have the draft relegated back to its forum for the rest of the year.
 

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