It's official: Big papi blows

[Run DMC]

He hasn't hit a dinger since 9/22/08! Batting .215 with 12 rbi's. This is our power guy? I said it before and I'll say it again. Papi is finished and his 3-4 big years all came courtesy of steroids. No more roids, no more Papi. Case closed.

 

[maverick4]

Steroids? He's a big guy, it's not crazy to think a guy his size can hit bombs.

Manny isn't hitting behind him anymore, he's old, and his wrist may not have fully healed.

If he was on steroids he would look at lot more jacked/ripped and not as fat.

 

[Wildo7]

Steroids? He's a big guy, it's not crazy to think a guy his size can hit bombs.

Manny isn't hitting behind him anymore, he's old, and his wrist may not have fully healed.

If he was on steroids he would look at lot more jacked/ripped and not as fat.

Most of Ortiz's production came when he was hitting behind Manny, not the other way around, and since Manny left the production behind Ortiz has been as stellar as any hitter would provide.

I don't know about the roids but I do think that Ortiz is dunski.

 

[maverick4]

Papi may be done, but I strongly disagree he was on roids. Look at how fat/chubby he is, roid users don't look like that. Steroids makes your muscles stiffer and makes you look leaner/muscular.

I knew Manny hit behind Papi (did you read the post?), but no hitter can replace Manny and his effect on Ortiz and the rest of the BoSox lineup. Manny is maybe the best right handed hitter in the past 30 years, you can't replace that adequately.

 

[Run DMC]

The manny theory is silly. He is done.

 

[captain insano]

He hasn't hit a dinger since 9/22/08! Batting .215 with 12 rbi's. This is our power guy? I said it before and I'll say it again. Papi is finished and his 3-4 big years all came courtesy of steroids. No more roids, no more Papi. Case closed.

do you have any proof he did roids? no you dont. nothing but speculation on your part. case closed.

 

[scout]

do you have any proof he did roids? no you dont. nothing but speculation on your part. case closed.

There was another member (or maybe the same one) who was also convinced that Pedroia was on roids. There is always a shadow of doubt with athletes, which is ok, but to make accusations "just because" is wrong. Kind of funny tho, make the same accusation of a their favorite athlete and see their head spin.

 

[Wildo7]

I knew Manny hit behind Papi (did you read the post?), but no hitter can replace Manny and his effect on Ortiz and the rest of the BoSox lineup. Manny is maybe the best right handed hitter in the past 30 years, you can't replace that adequately.

Yes I did read your post but apparently you didn't read mine because that's not what I said. Ortiz' best numbers came when he was hitting behind Manny, not the other way around. And the production in the 4 hole for the Sox since Manny left has been as strong as you could possibly ask for, so it's not a problem of protection (an overrated idea anyway).

 

[efin98]

Yes I did read your post but apparently you didn't read mine because that's not what I said. Ortiz' best numbers came when he was hitting behind Manny, not the other way around. And the production in the 4 hole for the Sox since Manny left has been as strong as you could possibly ask for, so it's not a problem of protection (an overrated idea anyway).

2004:
He hit .307 with 89 RBIs and 26 HRs in the 3rd spot.
He hit .280 with 14 home runs and 46 RBIs from the 4th spot.

2005:
He hit .303 with 125 RBIs and 39 HRs in the 3rd spot.
He hit .289 with 23 RBIs and 9 HRs in the 4th spot.

After 2005 he has almost always hit in the 3rd spot in the order.

He he pretty well in 2003 from the 5th spot. .289 85 RBIs and 25 HRs in 93 games. Might be time to move him elsewhere, possibly changing spots with Jason Bay or J.D. Drew.

 

[Run DMC]

do you have any proof he did roids? no you dont. nothing but speculation on your part. case closed.

You didn't address my main point which is, he blows! .215 with no homers and 12 rbi. That is pathetic. It is amazing how well this team does with alot of dead wood on it. Lugo and Papi are the worst offenders presently.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Papi may be done, but I strongly disagree he was on roids. Look at how fat/chubby he is, roid users don't look like that. Steroids makes your muscles stiffer and makes you look leaner/muscular.

I knew Manny hit behind Papi (did you read the post?), but no hitter can replace Manny and his effect on Ortiz and the rest of the BoSox lineup. Manny is maybe the best right handed hitter in the past 30 years, you can't replace that adequately.

Not necessarily, different substances do different things, not all steroids cut your muscles, some just add bulk.

I personally believe Papi was on the juice but we might never know.

 

[captain insano]

You didn't address my main point which is, he blows! .215 with no homers and 12 rbi. That is pathetic. It is amazing how well this team does with alot of dead wood on it. Lugo and Papi are the worst offenders presently.

i didnt address your main point because at this time your right he does blow. hopefully it wont last. i love the guy anyway hes done so much for the sox. but you dont have any idea if hes ever done roids.

 

[efin98]

Not necessarily, different substances do different things, not all steroids cut your muscles, some just add bulk.

I personally believe Papi was on the juice but we might never know.

Remember when he complained that the testing was racist...methinks he doth protesteth too much...

 

[maverick4]

You didn't address my main point which is, he blows! .215 with no homers and 12 rbi. That is pathetic. It is amazing how well this team does with alot of dead wood on it. Lugo and Papi are the worst offenders presently.

It's only been a month. Are you always such a sort-termed fair weather evaluator?

 

[Wildo7]

2004:
He hit .307 with 89 RBIs and 26 HRs in the 3rd spot.
He hit .280 with 14 home runs and 46 RBIs from the 4th spot.

2005:
He hit .303 with 125 RBIs and 39 HRs in the 3rd spot.
He hit .289 with 23 RBIs and 9 HRs in the 4th spot.

After 2005 he has almost always hit in the 3rd spot in the order.

He he pretty well in 2003 from the 5th spot. .289 85 RBIs and 25 HRs in 93 games. Might be time to move him elsewhere, possibly changing spots with Jason Bay or J.D. Drew.

Do you have a source for this? Someone made a post on SoSH that said the exact opposite of this for 03-05.

Anyway, the idea that Ortiz needs a HOF hitter behind him in order to produce, instead of just one of the best hitters in the league in Youk, seems beyond absurd.

Also:

http://fragilefreddy.blogspot.com/2009/04/on-bad-use-of-statistics-and-big-mans.html

Ortiz with Manny April, 2006 thru July 31, 2008;

OBP: .398
SLG: .586
BB Rate: once every 6.6 PA
HR Rate: once every 13.5 AB

Ortiz without Manny September, 2006 thru April 15, 2009;

OBP: .430
SLG: .593
BB Rate: once every 5.1 PA
HR Rate: once every 15.2 AB

So what do we find? We find that without Manny batting behind him David Ortiz reaches base more often and hits for (slightly) more power.

Let’s say that again;

Since the start of 2006 David Ortiz has been a better hitter without Manny Ramirez batting behind him than with Manny Ramirez batting behind him.

Now, in fairness the OBP increases because of the 23% increase in walk rate. So what happens if you make his walk rate the same as it would be with Manny behind him? His numbers would look like this;

OBP: .395
SLG:. 595
BB Rate: once every 5.1 PA
HR Rate: once every 15 AB

So, even when you account for the increased walk rate Ortiz is still at least as productive without Manny’s “protection” as he was with Manny’s protection.

This of course ignores another issue. This player is pretty good too, don’t ya’ think?

.349/.420/.651 (Avg./OBP/Slg.)

Those are Kevin Youkilis’ numbers since August 1st of last year. Given that he has been the primary hitter in that #4 hole since Manny’s trade I think the Sox can feel good that he is providing adequate “protection.” If fact that 1.071 OPS is better than the best performance that Manny posted during his tenure with Ortiz (1.058 in 2006).

Let’s recap what we’ve found with this cursory research;

1. Since 2006 David Ortiz has hit equally well, if not better, without Manny Ramirez behind him.

2. Kevin Youkilis has provided protection equal to the best that Manny Ramirez had to offer in his days as a Red Sox.

 

[ausbacker]

He's in the midst of a horrible slump, but to write him off so early in the season is ridiculous. I'm as annoyed with Papi's lack of product as the next bloke, but we've got to stick it out with him and see what happens. Middle of the season if he is still batting as poorly as now, then we re-assess Papi's position.

 

[Run DMC]

It's only been a month. Are you always such a sort-termed fair weather evaluator?

He has not hit an HR since 9/22/08! This is supposed to be our slugger?! I do not dislike Ortiz, but he sucks and has sucked for a long time now.

 

[Wildo7]

He's in the midst of a horrible slump, but to write him off so early in the season is ridiculous. I'm as annoyed with Papi's lack of product as the next bloke, but we've got to stick it out with him and see what happens. Middle of the season if he is still batting as poorly as now, then we re-assess Papi's position.

We don't really have any choice but to stick it out with him right now, so I agree that we can't write him off yet. I'm as patient as anyone when it comes to silly knee jerk reactions (see my stance on Cassel at the beginning of last season) but there's an adequate sample size and physical evidence (swing mechanics) to suggest a strong probability that he is in decline.

 

[efin98]

Do you have a source for this? Someone made a post on SoSH that said the exact opposite of this for 03-05.

Baseball-Reference.com

Since you added 2003 I'll include it. He hit 5th predominantly but shows OK but not as good stats there David Ortiz 2003 Batting Splits - Baseball-Reference.com

2004 he split time between 2/3rds of the time batting 3rd and 1/3rd batting 4th in the order, stats roughly proportional but lower for 4th in the order: David Ortiz 2004 Batting Splits - Baseball-Reference.com

2005 he hit 3rd with 1/4th the time at 4th in the order, stats roughly proportional but lower for 4th in the order: David Ortiz 2005 Batting Splits - Baseball-Reference.com

Lifetime stats for his places in the batting order: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=ortizda01&year=Career&t=b#lineu

As you can see all three of his lifetime major stats(OBP, batting % and slugging %) he did better hitting 3rd than 4th or 5th.

Anyway, the idea that Ortiz needs a HOF hitter behind him in order to produce, instead of just one of the best hitters in the league in Youk, seems beyond absurd.

Youk has the best batting, slugging and on base percentages in the league- that right there blows the notion out of the water. He has a great slugger behind him hitting at the top of the league, yet Ortiz is still stinking up the place.

 

[Kontradiction]

Let's get something straight: if Big Papi is done, it is because of a combination of age and wrist issues. Not steroids. He still looks the exact same as he did two years ago.