I Feel Good About This Draft

[long distance]

One other factor to consider is who's still available in free agency.

For example, if the Pats miss out on Justin Reid/Ronnie Harrison (etc.) in the 2nd because they've prioritized other prospects, Eric Reid, Vaccaro and Boston are still out there. While they're not young young, 26/27 years old is still younger than 31.

For another example, if the Pats feel that Evans isn't a great fit and that LVE is too risky and that all the remaining ILB prospects after those two are about the same, "lesser" level of quality/fit, Bowman is still available, as are Cushing and Casillas. While none of them may be upgrades, and certainly not long term, their availability may allow the Pats the leeway (insurance) to wait and select an ILB type later.

The point being that, somewhere deep in Gillette, there's a data-crunching facility so massive and sophisticated that it makes the NSA jealous. This facility tracks the ever-changing grades and availability status for not only this draft's prospects, but for all the potential prospects in the next couple-three drafts, and for every player on the Pats roster, and for every player on every other roster, and for every free agent - based on information known only to the Pats' coaches and in-house scouts. This facility also projects a mind-bogglingly large number of possible permutations for the Pats rosters for the next couple-three years, grades each of them, and maps out multiple pathways for arriving at each.

Coincidentally, this facility is also the room where BB, Caserio and Ernie Adams sit down and chat over coffee.

The point being that it's extremely difficult to project how this Pats draft may unfold because, obviously, we don't have access to any of that inside information. But it's also because, not so obviously, it's easy for us fans to lose track of the bigger, longer-term picture while being dazzled by all the potential shiny, new toys crowding our immediate field of view.

There's more than one way to write this year's roster re-building Perl script and the Pats have become really good at finding a way that works pretty well most of the time. The draft is only a part of it.

yup

 

[maineman209]

I was going to say, that big data mining operation bigger than NASA is Ernie Adams with a laptop and a white board.

And a notebook that fits in his hip pocket, plus a couple #2 pencils.

Old school still works because it's not the data that matters, it's how you interpret it.

 

[manxman2601]

The other thing is BB way of drafting, tends to be quality rather than the "Need"

The supposed interest in Ethan Pocic last year speaks to that. I’d qualify your point though and say that need may be a factor for B.B., just not immediate need necessarily. Future needs are a factor ie contracts expiring a year or two down the line. Ejiofor for example seems like a good Trey Flowers future replacement.

Ultimately, it’s how a prospect fits on the roster that matters rather than “need” or “quality”.

 

[maineman209]

The supposed interest in Ethan Pocic last year speaks to that. I’d qualify your point though and say that need may be a factor for B.B., just not immediate need necessarily. Future needs are a factor ie contracts expiring a year or two down the line. Ejiofor for example seems like a good Trey Flowers future replacement.

Ultimately, it’s how a prospect fits on the roster that matters rather than “need” or “quality”.

I believe that the Pats' perception of "need" and "fit are significantly more complex than ours and involve various schemes (and how frequently they my use them) and the various roles that need to be filled in order for those schemes to be effective (roles that often bridge two or more traditional "positions").

So, I think that they evaluate draft prospects, their own players, free agents and players who may be acquired from other teams in terms of those "needs" and, thus, "need" is already baked into a prospective player's grade/value to some degree. This would also mean that a prospective player's grade/value is continually changing as roles get filled - or unfilled.

 

[scott99]

I actually feel pretty confident about the offseason so far. Some big losses on offense in Lewis, Amendola, Cooks and Solder, but I feel replacing Solder might be the toughest piece to replace. Adding Matthews, Patterson and keeping Britt, as well as getting back Edelman and Mitchell would make the WR corps very deep. Losing Lewis hurt, but I think we have enough to replace him by committee.

Draftwise, I don't expect the expected. Meaning, most mocks have the Pats picking one of OT, CB or LB with each 1st round pick. I really have no clue who Belichick will pick or what Belichick will do. As far as I know, WR & RB could be the picks at 23 & 31. I do feel we will pick a QB in the first 3 rounds.

Overall, I agree with the OP, with 5 picks in the first 95, the Pats can do serious damage. Whether trading down and getting more picks, or trading up.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I'm dreading this draft, because the Pats actually have the picks to help the team, which means almost assuredly that BB will waste those picks, just to infuriate me...

Things that will make FTW's head explode.....

Drafting any QB before the third round. If Brady is your QB for the next few years, and you already have Hoyer (who stinks, I know, but he is already on the team and for a decent salary), why waste more high round picks on someone who will not play, and can not help you win right away!

Draft any defensive backs before the third round. BB track record on drafting DBs is atrocious. If Rowe was good enough to play over Butler in the SB, then there is nobody in the draft worth taking that will supplant him. The Pats are already horribly overpaying for the atrocious Rutgers secondary, don't add to it, with more Jordan Richards, Ras IR, etc.etc.etc.

Trading out of the first round to garner more 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks, that will not make the team, and will be scooped up by another team after final cut downs.

Draft a WR in the first round


Things that will make FTW happy......

Draft a LB and edge rusher with the first two picks

Davenport, Evans, Carter, Vander Esch, Hubbard, any combination or even a double up would be great. Basically a Jones/Hightower first round (minus the trading away Jones for a bag of magic beans).

Trade a first round pick for a second/third rounder this year and that team's first rounder next year, provided that their is a decent chance that the team in question could really suck and provide a top ten pick next year.

Drafting Sony Michel

Drafting anyone whose first name starts with Equanim......

Package later round picks to move up in the draft.

 

[Snooky97]

When it comes to thinking about BB drafting i don't even try and work out what he's going to do.

Personally i'd like to go -

LB/OLB/DE/CB in the first 3 picks.

Ideally i'd like - LVE... Jaire Alexander or Hughes... Lorenzo Carter...

If he's there i'd then go Christian Kirk... He could easily replicate Wes Welkers numbers..

Then who knows

 

[mihap]

BB, of course, could go in any number of weird directions but I do think there are so many good possible directions to go, I’m feeling pretty good ahead of Thursday.

You will never learn a lesson
Justin Reid, Jaire Alexander, LVE, RE, LAuletta Faulk, OT in first. I cant remember when so many people agree on the first picks for Pats. So there are small chances for this. Bill zigs when everyone else zags.

 

[manxman2601]

You will never learn a lesson
Justin Reid, Jaire Alexander, LVE, RE, LAuletta Faulk, OT in first. I cant remember when so many people agree on the first picks for Pats. So there are small chances for this. Bill zigs when everyone else zags.

He’s going to double bluff us. Everyone’s expecting him to zag so he’ll zig.

 

[mihap]

He’s going to double bluff us. Everyone’s expecting him to zag so he’ll zig.

Nice one.
I am thinking more in this way.
Is any young QB in NFL worth trading?
Our biggest needs are at SS and LB. And WR and DT next year if they dont resign or pick option for players. Is he going to trade for someone with NFL experience?
The last two draft was really good just no luck with injuries. Rivers, Garcia and VAlentine and Mitchell. Ok last two were injury prone but I would take a risk. (Easly wasnt bad pick either.)

 

[manxman2601]

Nice one.
I am thinking more in this way.
Is any young QB in NFL worth trading?
Our biggest needs are at SS and LB. And WR and DT next year if they dont resign or pick option for players. Is he going to trade for someone with NFL experience?
The last two draft was really good just no luck with injuries. Rivers, Garcia and VAlentine and Mitchell. Ok last two were injury prone but I would take a risk. (Easly wasnt bad pick either.)

I don’t know which way he’ll go. All we can do as amateurs is look at the available evidence: roster needs, pre-draft contacts, athleticism, draft history and reports about character fits. Doing so, I’ve missed loads but hit on some. Keep plugging away.

As for young QBs, I think on hindsight it was a mistake to trade Jacoby Brissett. He’s going to be too expensive to get back now.

 

[maineman209]

When it comes to thinking about BB drafting i don't even try and work out what he's going to do.

Personally i'd like to go -

LB/OLB/DE/CB in the first 3 picks.

Ideally i'd like - LVE... Jaire Alexander or Hughes... Lorenzo Carter...

If he's there i'd then go Christian Kirk... He could easily replicate Wes Welkers numbers..

Then who knows

If the Pats are going to stuff yet another warm body into their already crowded WR room by drafting one in the first 100 picks, I think I'd rather go with Pettis. Good route-runner, decent hands and, most important, a highly-qualified punt returner. The Pats don't really have one of those aside from Edelman - and he's coming back from an ACL (not to mention, well, old).

 

[maineman209]

Is any young QB in NFL worth trading?

I've been wondering what the Lions might accept for Jake Rudock. A 6th, maybe?

It would be kinda hilarious, after all this QB sturm-und-drang, if the Lions took Lauletta and then traded Rudock to the Pats, and the Pats end up not drafting any QB, but pick up Kanoff as a UDFA.

That might finally mess up Kiper's hair helmet.

 

[bakes781]

I’m only accepting of a WR in the 2nd round if we’ve filled our need at OL&DL and missed out on a Hurst or Goedert at TE.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Kind of amusing to me that they have the Pats trading up for Davenport at #18. Great prospect and I'd like to see him with the Pats. But the move seems based on the cliche that the Pats are "always desperate" for a premier pass-rushing DE and that it's the team's #1 priority every year.

Well, to be fair, how many times/years have people on this board said "Let's spend all the high picks on defense"?

 

[bakes781]

The fact of the matter is 75% of the league is probably “desperate for a pass rush”. They are probably harder to come by than a franchise QB these days. Getting a shut down corner is definitely easier IMO especially with this year’s class.

 

[captain stone]

I don't feel good about this draft, or of any draft in which Bill has final say.

 

[manxman2601]

I don't feel good about this draft, or of any draft in which Bill has final say.

With utmost respect Captain, this is not a surprise

 

[Mark Morse]

I don't want to reach for an OT. Much bigger need at OLB/ Edge, ILB and S for the future. LVE has some injury issues that might have him drop to Pats, a double up with Evans or Carter would suit me fine. If Lauletta is their QB they have to take him by #43. Washington is sitting right behind them (and may try to jump ahead of Pats). They like Lauletta and have a connection to Richmond on their coaching staff. They will definitely take a RB and TE in the draft.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

With utmost respect Captain, this is not a surprise

Surprises of the draft Patriots trade up from 23 next surprise Patriots draft only a total of 7 players have 4th rounders and undrafted free agents rates very close.
Sign 19 undrafted free agents.

Patriots trade up and draft Josh QB
Patriots trade up and take the risk on Rashawn Evans
Patriots draft Josh Sweat
Patriots draft Jessie Bates
Patriots draft Holton Hill
Patriots draft Akrum Wadley
Patriots trade pick for Micheal Kendricks.
A 7th this year and a pick that can become high as a 5th next year conditional.