I Feel Good About This Draft

[manxman2601]

Although I am making some assumptions:

1. That we don’t trade up for Rosen and Jackson. That changes everything.
2. I’m assuming that we are looking at LB and OT in the first with safety, Edge, QB and TE as secondary needs. The contacts list does seem to bear this out although it’s no guarantee.


So, based upon those assumptions, here’s how I see things.

1. One of Miller or Connor Williams will likely be there at 23. I don’t think there’s a guarantee they’ll be there at 31 although I think Williams might be. I have fairly low confidence that we either want Wynn or that he’ll be available to us.

2. At least one of Evans or Vander Esch will be available at 23. 31 is possible for Evans but no guarantee.

3. There will be good CBs available at 23 or 31 if that’s where B.B. sees a need although contacts don’t seem to suggest that’s the case. Could Mike Hughes or Jaire Alexander represent too much value though for B.B. to ignore?

4. One of Justin Reid or Ronnie Harrison stand a good chance of being there at 43.

5. There seems to be a very interesting range of very athletic edge players available in the 2nd round in Sweat, Carter and Green and although he’s not the same type of player, Ejiofor is a pretty nice backstop to those three.

6. Projecting Lauletta and Falk to be eventual starters may be a stretch but I think both are likely to good quality backups which is no bad thing. There’s Mike White too.

7. I don’t love the TE class but there’ll be someone there at 43 if that’s the route B.B. chooses.

8. The interest in top WRs and RBs is interesting. We may not see offense as the way forward but there’s likely plenty of really good talent there at 31 or 43. Michel, Guice, Jones at RB and Ridley, Miller, Kirk are all players I’d be fine with us drafting. They may not be my preference over other positions but all are good players.

9. Even if B.B. goes interior OL, this is one of the best classes at that position that I remember.

10. Even if B.B. trades up into the teens for Rosen or Jackson, I’d be fine with that because we’d likely still have 31 or 43 to get another quality prospect and it also frees up 63, likely for one of the edge players. The only thing that concerns me is trading our top three picks to get into the top 10.

BB, of course, could go in any number of weird directions but I do think there are so many good possible directions to go, I’m feeling pretty good ahead of Thursday. I’m less bothered about immediate needs and am more focused on starting to build the next generation. I like the chances of that happening.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

CBS recently did a full seven round mock with different GMs trading and picking players. What struck me is that most of the team hauls looked pretty good. I would have been happy with almost any of the player combinations. Regardless of how things unfold, we should strengthen our young core. Good thoughts.

EDIT: Seven-round NFL Mock Draft: 21 trades, 256 picks and draft class analysis for all 32 teams

 

[manxman2601]

Thinking of the things that would disappoint me.

1. Trading up into the top 10 for a QB. I’d be less disappointed if we did that for Chubb but it’s still not ideal. I assume trading up that high means giving up all three top picks and/or a high 2019 pick.

2. Drafting a TE in the first. Goedert at 31 might be forgivable.

3. Trading up from 23 for an OT. Maybe if it only costs 95 but I wouldn’t want to give up any more than that.

4. The usual BB safety overdraft in the 2nd.

Aside from that, I can’t think of too much that would disappoint me. I’d even accept a Hurst/Bryan in the first because it would suggest a more aggressive attitude to defense.

 

[manxman2601]

CBS recently did a full seven round mock with different GMs trading and picking players. What struck me is that most of the team hauls looked pretty good. I would have been happy with almost any of the player combinations. Regardless of how things unfold, we should strengthen our young core. Good thoughts.

EDIT: Seven-round NFL Mock Draft: 21 trades, 256 picks and draft class analysis for all 32 teams

Those first three picks for the Pats (Davenport, Miller, Lorenzo) are three prettty risky picks but the upside is outstanding. I’d still be nervous though. I think I’d want a safer pick mixed in there.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Those first three picks for the Pats (Davenport, Miller, Lorenzo) are three prettty risky picks but the upside is outstanding. I’d still be nervous though. I think I’d want a safer pick mixed in there.

Really solid mock.
Id be very happy.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Sorry, I should have been clearer: I was looking at all the team results, and thinking that many of the team's drafts looked great, not just the Patriots. That encourages me that regardless of how the board falls, we can come away with good players.

 

[manxman2601]

Really solid mock.
Id be very happy.

There’s a lot of projection in those three. The upside is massive but there’s a fair bit of risk too. But if all three live up to their projections, it would be a pretty transformative draft. Davenport, Ejiofor, Flowers, Rivers and Carter would be a pretty fun pass rush rotation.

 

[manxman2601]

Sorry, I should have been clearer: I was looking at all the team results, and thinking that many of the team's drafts looked great, not just the Patriots. That encourages me that regardless of how the board falls, we can come away with good players.

I knew what you meant but just looked at the Pats. You are right though, there’s good depth in the top two rounds.

 

[bakes781]

BB almost never drafts who we think he should. There’s a reason why everyone fails miserably at the draft contest. LOL

That said I would be disappointed if we drafted a skill position player on day 1 or 2 with only a couple(Ridley,Sutton,Hurst) of exceptions. I would be very disappointed if we didn’t come away with an OL, DL and a DB that could potentially become an every day starter in a couple of years. These are 3 big areas that we have recently lost big names at. I know we have Malcolm Brown but let’s face it he’s no Wilfork. A pass rusher would be great but if we can have 2 solid cover guys that could make up for that. I think finding that guy to pair with Gilmore will be easier than finding the next Chandler Jones.

A QB selection is almost a guarantee but I don’t want us trading up for one in the first. If Allen falls to 23 than fine. But I’m perfectly content with Lauletta or Falk in the 3rd. If Brady wants to prove his method works than he should own up to his talk of playing until he’s 45. I’d be pissed if he didn’t give us at least 2 more seasons.

The reason we all see this draft as being so important is we know that the end of an era is near. Let’s just hope it’s not after this season.

 

[manxman2601]

BB almost never drafts who he think we should. There’s a reason why everyone fails miserably at the draft contest. LOL

That said I would be disappointed if we drafted a skill position player on day 1 or 2 with only a couple(Ridley,Sutton,Hurst) of exceptions. I would be very disappointed if we didn’t come away with an OL, DL and a DB that could potentially become an every day starter in a couple of years. These are 3 big areas that we have recently lost big names at. I know we have Malcolm Brown but let’s face it he’s no Wilfork. A pass rusher would be great but if we can have 2 solid cover guys that could make up for that. I think finding that guy to pair with Gilmore will be easier than finding the next Chandler Jones.

A QB selection is almost a guarantee but I don’t want us trading up for one in the first. If Allen falls to 23 than fine. But I’m perfectly content with Lauletta or Falk in the 3rd. If Brady wants to prove his method works than he should own up to his talk of playing until he’s 45. I’d be pissed if he didn’t give us at least 2 more seasons.

The reason we all see this draft as being so important is we know that the end of an era is near. Let’s just hope it’s not after this season.

I agree but I can only go on what’s been signalled by our contacts. It’s not a bad indicator for position if nothing else, but I agre it’s not that reliable. Still, there aren’t too many positions I’d be that disappointed with. As I said I’m not that bothered about positional need because I think this is the first real draft for the post Brady/Gronk era potentially. Just get really good players.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

My problem is that I don't think the team has filled all of its holes so they can take advantage of such an overall deep draft. I am not comfortable running to training camp with our current offensive tackle situation, or with our off the ball linebacker situation despite Hightower's return, and with our depth at safety given the Pats use of both the big nickel and what I like calling the huge nickel. So this makes me feel like we're trapped into drafting someone at each of those positions, rather than best available, and would make me feel very uncomfortable if we don't draft those positions. I feel like they've made reasonable attempts at adding/maintaining talent level everywhere else.

Fortunately at least the talent at linebacker and safety is there this draft. But I hate that we're talking about taking a left tackle early and potentially over drafting someone.

On the other hand given that Scar is there, and that they haven't had many big mistakes/issues on the line during his tenure, I feel like I should give them the benefit of the doubt on whatever decision they make at that position.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Although I am making some assumptions:

1. That we don’t trade up for Rosen and Jackson. That changes everything.
2. I’m assuming that we are looking at LB and OT in the first with safety, Edge, QB and TE as secondary needs. The contacts list does seem to bear this out although it’s no guarantee.


So, based upon those assumptions, here’s how I see things.

1. One of Miller or Connor Williams will likely be there at 23. I don’t think there’s a guarantee they’ll be there at 31 although I think Williams might be. I have fairly low confidence that we either want Wynn or that he’ll be available to us.

2. At least one of Evans or Vander Esch will be available at 23. 31 is possible for Evans but no guarantee.

3. There will be good CBs available at 23 or 31 if that’s where B.B. sees a need although contacts don’t seem to suggest that’s the case. Could Mike Hughes or Jaire Alexander represent too much value though for B.B. to ignore?

4. One of Justin Reid or Ronnie Harrison stand a good chance of being there at 43.

5. There seems to be a very interesting range of very athletic edge players available in the 2nd round in Sweat, Carter and Green and although he’s not the same type of player, Ejiofor is a pretty nice backstop to those three.

6. Projecting Lauletta and Falk to be eventual starters may be a stretch but I think both are likely to good quality backups which is no bad thing. There’s Mike White too.

7. I don’t love the TE class but there’ll be someone there at 43 if that’s the route B.B. chooses.

8. The interest in top WRs and RBs is interesting. We may not see offense as the way forward but there’s likely plenty of really good talent there at 31 or 43. Michel, Guice, Jones at RB and Ridley, Miller, Kirk are all players I’d be fine with us drafting. They may not be my preference over other positions but all are good players.

9. Even if B.B. goes interior OL, this is one of the best classes at that position that I remember.

10. Even if B.B. trades up into the teens for Rosen or Jackson, I’d be fine with that because we’d likely still have 31 or 43 to get another quality prospect and it also frees up 63, likely for one of the edge players. The only thing that concerns me is trading our top three picks to get into the top 10.

BB, of course, could go in any number of weird directions but I do think there are so many good possible directions to go, I’m feeling pretty good ahead of Thursday. I’m less bothered about immediate needs and am more focused on starting to build the next generation. I like the chances of that happening.

lol ur rainmaking here manxman

 

[long distance]

Still plenty of tape to watch but unlike last year not too many excitements esp. where the current Pats top 5 picks are. Id actually like a trade up in the 1st, expect at least one trade down and wouldn't mind at all a trade out to next year or a trade for a player.

These seem to be positions with value (all just potentially of course):

1. you can get elite CB at very good price (probably even after Rd 1)
2. solid choice and historical depth of QBs for the future
3. very good choice of full-sized 3T+5T DLs (that BB is searching for a while now)
4. versatile and deep RB group again
5. a good year to find your slot WR
6. some intriguing versatile IOL prospects
7. solid TE depth
8. depth and great variety of LBs (incl “star“)

So I hope Pats fish there..

 

[zimmy]

Bill usually drafts one year ahead in at least one position, although the fact we let Solder/Butler go this year means there is a bit more money to go round next year. Positions that don't seem that urgent but might be picked high are:

1) taking a versatile safety who can play slot and then take over from Chung/McCourty. 2) a WR, knowing that most of the guys we have are not necessarily long term answers and are own 1 year deals, 3) interior o-line with Mason slated for a big contract next year, 4) a TE - I'd be concerned for Gronk's future if they took a TE at 43 our above.

It's interesting they don't seem to have looked much at the 1st round corners. Maybe it's a smokescreen but it doesn't seem like they plan to invest high at CB. A few mid round corners on their radar instead. Gilmore obviously takes one role, and they must be happy with Rowe and McCourty (although both in last years of deal). Cyrus and Jonathan to man the inside potentially with the safety I mentioned earlier and another mid rounder.

I agree that if we don't take a QB in the first it seems we are focusing on OT and LB with S and WR in the mix for 31/43 too.

 

[maineman209]

CBS recently did a full seven round mock with different GMs trading and picking players. What struck me is that most of the team hauls looked pretty good. I would have been happy with almost any of the player combinations. Regardless of how things unfold, we should strengthen our young core. Good thoughts.

EDIT: Seven-round NFL Mock Draft: 21 trades, 256 picks and draft class analysis for all 32 teams

Kind of amusing to me that they have the Pats trading up for Davenport at #18. Great prospect and I'd like to see him with the Pats. But the move seems based on the cliche that the Pats are "always desperate" for a premier pass-rushing DE and that it's the team's #1 priority every year.

 

[manxman2601]

lol ur rainmaking here manxman

I’ve always been an optimist when it comes to the Patriots draft.

 

[Snooky97]

This whole issue pats never have a pass rush is true in some ways but in others its not.

If we compare 2017 Super Bowl team. The amount of pass rushing abilities we had were very good, we had a very nice rotation of players, if you compare that to this years team, then lets be honest we were lacking massively in that area.

We went from; Sheard, Ninko, Long, Trey flowers and HT as well!

To this years Edge; Trey Flowers, Wise (Rookie) Guy ( 3-4 DE) Eric Lee, and KVN..

THAT is a HUGEEE difference! Are team was never built on getting 10 Sacks a game. It was built on controlled pressure throughout the game which we have struggled all season with.

When it came to 3rd down with the 2017 Super Bowl team, how many times was Trey Flowers pushed inside to cause havoc! For me i think that was a huge difference for this team this year!

Whereas if we compare that to this years team it was rare that this occurred or if it did it never had the affect it did to the previous team. My reasoning behind this is not having a good pass rusher next to Trey when he was shunted inside, whereas when he was effective we had Sheard/Long/Ninko causing pressure, which normally left Trey with just the centre and we all know how that normally ends up.

Personally i don't think we had the players we ideally needed to replace these until James Harrison came along and even then it wasn't as effective but it did help!


Now onto Davenport, his upside is huge but he's very very raw! If it's between him and Landry i'm taking Landry all day long! He's arguably the best pure Pass rusher in this draft.. CHUBB is the better all round prospect, very good in everything you want from a DE.

I'm hoping we can somehow get Josh Sweat, the guy is another athletic freak in this years Draft!...


I honestly think this could be a huge huge draft for an awful lot of teams this years, i want to build an old school Pats Defence. For the next QB that comes in, look at how much that helped Brady when he was first in the league!

Personally i'm not high on any of the tackles this year, there's not one the screams out to me as a solid Solder replacement, i'd like to see how Garcia does and if he's looking good then lets trust Dante to coach him up!

Remember lets trust the process, it works more than it fails!

#LFG

 

[maineman209]

One other factor to consider is who's still available in free agency.

For example, if the Pats miss out on Justin Reid/Ronnie Harrison (etc.) in the 2nd because they've prioritized other prospects, Eric Reid, Vaccaro and Boston are still out there. While they're not young young, 26/27 years old is still younger than 31.

For another example, if the Pats feel that Evans isn't a great fit and that LVE is too risky and that all the remaining ILB prospects after those two are about the same, "lesser" level of quality/fit, Bowman is still available, as are Cushing and Casillas. While none of them may be upgrades, and certainly not long term, their availability may allow the Pats the leeway (insurance) to wait and select an ILB type later.

The point being that, somewhere deep in Gillette, there's a data-crunching facility so massive and sophisticated that it makes the NSA jealous. This facility tracks the ever-changing grades and availability status for not only this draft's prospects, but for all the potential prospects in the next couple-three drafts, and for every player on the Pats roster, and for every player on every other roster, and for every free agent - based on information known only to the Pats' coaches and in-house scouts. This facility also projects a mind-bogglingly large number of possible permutations for the Pats rosters for the next couple-three years, grades each of them, and maps out multiple pathways for arriving at each.

Coincidentally, this facility is also the room where BB, Caserio and Ernie Adams sit down and chat over coffee.

The point being that it's extremely difficult to project how this Pats draft may unfold because, obviously, we don't have access to any of that inside information. But it's also because, not so obviously, it's easy for us fans to lose track of the bigger, longer-term picture while being dazzled by all the potential shiny, new toys crowding our immediate field of view.

There's more than one way to write this year's roster re-building Perl script and the Pats have become really good at finding a way that works pretty well most of the time. The draft is only a part of it.

 

[manxman2601]

One other factor to consider is who's still available in free agency.

For example, if the Pats miss out on Justin Reid/Ronnie Harrison (etc.) in the 2nd because they've prioritized other prospects, Eric Reid, Vaccaro and Boston are still out there. While they're not young young, 26/27 years old is still younger than 31.

For another example, if the Pats feel that Evans isn't a great fit and that LVE is too risky and that all the remaining ILB prospects after those two are about the same, "lesser" level of quality/fit, Bowman is still available, as are Cushing and Casillas. While none of them may be upgrades, and certainly not long term, their availability may allow the Pats the leeway (insurance) to wait and select an ILB type later.

The point being that, somewhere deep in Gillette, there's a data-crunching facility so massive and sophisticated that it makes the NSA jealous. This facility tracks the ever-changing grades and availability status for not only this draft's prospects, but for all the potential prospects in the next couple-three drafts, and for every player on the Pats roster, and for every player on every other roster, and for every free agent - based on information known only to the Pats' coaches and in-house scouts. This facility also projects a mind-bogglingly large number of possible permutations for the Pats rosters for the next couple-three years, grades each of them, and maps out multiple pathways for arriving at each.

Coincidentally, this facility is also the room where BB, Caserio and Ernie Adams sit down and chat over coffee.

The point being that it's extremely difficult to project how this Pats draft may unfold because, obviously, we don't have access to any of that inside information. But it's also because, not so obviously, it's easy for us fans to lose track of the bigger, longer-term picture while being dazzled by all the potential shiny, new toys crowding our immediate field of view.

There's more than one way to write this year's roster re-building Perl script and the Pats have become really good at finding a way that works pretty well most of the time. The draft is only a part of it.

I was going to say, that big data mining operation bigger than NASA is Ernie Adams with a laptop and a white board.

 

[Snooky97]

The other thing is BB way of drafting, tends to be quality rather than the "Need"