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[Highlight] Ravens go for 2 and fail, fall to Steelers 20-19

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masterbouncer

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
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it comes down to execution, the play design was not bad nor does it mean you should not take the risk next time again, you could also miss the XP as well...a risk is always there
 

farn

Pro Bowl Player
The chiefs are as hot as us right now. Hopefully they can drop a couple of games before the season ends. Would be beautiful if we could get that number one seed.
Objectively, KC should scare opponents more than NE…. They are explosive & seasoned. Their QB is established as a unique talent and their roster is full of people that are willing to hurt other people.

Honestly, I hope another team takes them out in the playoffs and - if things go well for NE this month - the Patriots could go through a playoff run w/o facing them.
 

moosekill

In the Starting Line-Up
It is the odds right? 50/50 you make it vs 90/10 you make the xp. if you make the xp then it is 45/45/10 you win/lose/tie. If those were the odds you are using then go for it every time. But beyond that the coach has to put his own numbers in there. He thought they had a better than 50% chance of making it, and a less that 45% they would win if they went to ot. So the quick and dirty numbers support what he did.
 

Sicilian

Pro Bowl Player
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I am glad it failed but it is not a crazy gamble. They are over 50% on two point conversions. Kick an XP and your odds are about 50%. So...50% chance to win now, or 50% chance to win later.

This was my thought too. And it's not even just pure analytics (if you assume a 50/50 chance of winning in OT), but the fact you had a Pittsburgh defense that just had to defend a long drive and was reeling a little bit, coupled with having an offense that is basically built to be almost impossible to stop on 2 yard to go situations. On top of that, the play (as it was drawn up) was going to work, Lamar just missed by half an inch. It's not Andrews' fault, but I've seen him haul in tougher catches than that.

Either way, I'm really glad they went for it and missed! Hopefully the Pats take care of their business tonight now.
 

Simpelton

In the Starting Line-Up
yep, this one made little sense. Their d was great for the most part and the kicker is money up to 60+ yards. Such a stupid gamble. I’m usually all for aggressive playcalls but theres gotta be logic behind it
His defense had just given up 2 long drives to the corpse of Big Ben. If Harbaugh thought his defense couldn't hold in overtime, and evidence seems to suggest this, then the gamble of the 2 point conversion, trusting his offense which was clicking rather than his defense which was not, isn't so crazy.
 

PATSYLICIOUS

Pro Bowl Player
His defense had just given up 2 long drives to the corpse of Big Ben. If Harbaugh thought his defense couldn't hold in overtime, and evidence seems to suggest this, then the gamble of the 2 point conversion, trusting his offense which was clicking rather than his defense which was not, isn't so crazy.

you trust your offense over a series of plays where the defense has to stop you on 3 or 4 downs, not 1 all or nothing play.

the only big risk in ot defense wise is giving up a td on the first drive. The Steelers defense is their strength. The odds of that offense scoring on the first ot drive are low.
 

PATSYLICIOUS

Pro Bowl Player
Yeah. Most Patriot fans hate both the Squeelers and the Murderers. So, it always comes down to whose loss benefits us the most.

plus if you look at it from the Steelers perspective, is winning right now a good thing for them? Their postseason chances are not very good judging by their schedule especially and each win hurts their draft position next year. Even if they sneak into the playoffs it most likely means another embarrassment like last year.
 

Palm Beach Pats Fan

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
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Do you believe that Harbaugh will go for 2 next time because I don't.
He says it was necessary also because of the injury situation with his cornerbacks. So if that situation, with limited personnel cropped up again, I don't see why he wouldn't. It is certainly the bold choice, but my point was that even analytically (just like 4th-and-2) it is justifiable.
 

moosekill

In the Starting Line-Up
you trust your offense over a series of plays where the defense has to stop you on 3 or 4 downs, not 1 all or nothing play.

the only big risk in ot defense wise is giving up a td on the first drive. The Steelers defense is their strength. The odds of that offense scoring on the first ot drive are low.
Statistics don't really back this up.
 

Brotherblues

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
you trust your offense over a series of plays where the defense has to stop you on 3 or 4 downs, not 1 all or nothing play.

the only big risk in ot defense wise is giving up a td on the first drive. The Steelers defense is their strength. The odds of that offense scoring on the first ot drive are low.
I don't really have a strong opinion but I'm in the minority that liked the call. Some facts to consider are that they are a team with a strong tendency to go for it on 4th and short and they are pretty succesful at it. A 2 point play is very similar to that (not entirely the same because of the shortened field, but very similar still).

I'd also take into account the opponent. That wasn't the Jete managing to tie you for 60 minutes aided by fluky plays. It was a competitive opponent only 2 wins behind you in December. And they just tied you for 60 minutes. So to think your odds in OT are anything better than 55/45 is crazy. Comparing that to your success rate in 4th and short... Just saying it wasn't as crazy a decision as people are making it out to be.

And I despise the man.
 

PATSYLICIOUS

Pro Bowl Player
I don't really have a strong opinion but I'm in the minority that liked the call. Some facts to consider are that they are a team with a strong tendency to go for it on 4th and short and they are pretty succesful at it. A 2 point play is very similar to that (not entirely the same because of the shortened field, but very similar still).

I'd also take into account the opponent. That wasn't the Jete managing to tie you for 60 minutes aided by fluky plays. It was a competitive opponent only 2 wins behind you in December. And they just tied you for 60 minutes. So to think your odds in OT are anything better than 55/45 is crazy. Comparing that to your success rate in 4th and short... Just saying it wasn't as crazy a decision as people are making it out to be.

And I despise the man.

Thats a fair take, but i feel like this is a move made by a team who feels like the underdog. If youre at the time the #1 seed , facing a lesser opponent who hasnt won in 3 weeks, you should have faith in your team to have the advantage over your opponent starting from scratch in ot. Having the game come down to a 50/50 play insteas of playing it out is a bit of a desperation move imo. Gutsy but not wise given where the teams stand right now
 

amfootball

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
I hated the call. You kick it there and go to OT. To decide the game on that one play was a disaster. Of course, if it does work than it looks like genius but we all know Harbaugh is not a genius.
 

PATSYLICIOUS

Pro Bowl Player
Statistics don't really back this up.

not sure what statistics you’re looking at but someone mentioned the % chance of the 2 pt conversion succeeeding is roughly 50/50. Why put the game on the line there and then when you are the superior team , youre defense has just carried you to consecutive victories, and the other offense is lower tier. Not a wise risk overall
 

Triumph

Hall of Fame Poster
He says it was necessary also because of the injury situation with his cornerbacks. So if that situation, with limited personnel cropped up again, I don't see why he wouldn't. It is certainly the bold choice, but my point was that even analytically (just like 4th-and-2) it is justifiable.
Belichick the GOAT would kick and tie it up.

We have seen him do that dozens of times and with injuries during the game. Perhaps Baltimore wins the OT toss and scored a TD ending the game? Perhaps the Steelers win the toss, but the KO returner fumbles away to Baltimore? Anything can happen in OT.
 

Sicilian

Pro Bowl Player
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Thats a fair take, but i feel like this is a move made by a team who feels like the underdog. If youre at the time the #1 seed , facing a lesser opponent who hasnt won in 3 weeks, you should have faith in your team to have the advantage over your opponent starting from scratch in ot. Having the game come down to a 50/50 play insteas of playing it out is a bit of a desperation move imo. Gutsy but not wise given where the teams stand right now

I think the bolded part is the rub here though. I think they felt it was a better than 50/50 chance of getting the 2 points.
 

PATSYLICIOUS

Pro Bowl Player
I think the bolded part is the rub here though. I think they felt it was a better than 50/50 chance of getting the 2 points.

If they did its a misguided calculation right now. Their offense has been a weakness for weeks now. The Steelers have a strong defense, especially up front. So really one would think their odds would fall towards the downside of the standard if anything.
 

moosekill

In the Starting Line-Up
Math is hard. There are reasons football isn't like baseball and hugely dependant on statistics. But..... Pittsburg was driving up and down the field on Baltimore, and Baltimore had to pull a rabbit out of their butts on a couple of plays on the last drive to score. I think realistically the odds would have been something like 90% make the xp kick. 65% make the 2 point conversion and 40% win the game in ot. Put whatever numbers you want in there. It looks like the correct call if you are playing the odds. Hindsight is great but....
 

mosi

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
At the start, that game looked to be a Balt blow out. But Pitt hung on and I actually really enjoyed watching that game. Enjoyable TV!

Good to see two teams that still dislike each other and want to win no matter what.
 

Spiral

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Math is hard. There are reasons football isn't like baseball and hugely dependant on statistics. But..... Pittsburg was driving up and down the field on Baltimore, and Baltimore had to pull a rabbit out of their butts on a couple of plays on the last drive to score. I think realistically the odds would have been something like 90% make the xp kick. 65% make the 2 point conversion and 40% win the game in ot. Put whatever numbers you want in there. It looks like the correct call if you are playing the odds. Hindsight is great but....
Most OT games are decided by a FG. If I have Justin Tucker, I'm playing for OT.
 

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