GM LOUNGE

[long distance]

Have a bit of time on my hand over next month or so & w this being a very special offseason in general & Pats particular i decided to invest some in this thread.

The purpose of this thread (hopefully) is to present as comprehensive Pats 2021 ROSTER BUILDING OPTIONS picture as possible so I hope many of you can JOIN & help. The goal is to combine ALL ASPECTS of roster building (current roster management, cap, trades, free agency, draft etc.) and research/discuss IN DEPTH ALL OPTIONS ALL OVER THE ROSTER incl. backups, special teams, developmental etc.

My hope is this thread can be a nice joint venture with FOCUS ON SHARING, contributing our own thoughts and information & avoid pitholes of policing others.
Discussion is of course welcome but hopefully wo bickering, nit picking, dissecting posts etc which is useless and destructive.
I hope these principles can be RESPECTED here. There are plenty of threads out there for those who like being right & show others wrong.

I see it similar to what we tried to do with re-watch threads & i hope it can work out just as nice.

Everyone is invited of course, but i would like especially to invite the re-watch, draft, roster and cap crowds to offer a hand or two..
@luuked @reamer @Tony2046 @BaconGrundleCandy @Miguel @Kenneth Sims @captain stone @PP2 @patfanken @jmt57 @Ross12 @Sciz @Sicilian @DaBruinz @mgteich @sb1 @UptownPatsFan @robertweathers @Mack Herron @Ochmed Jones @cstjohn17 @ctpatsfan77 @p8ryts @BobDigital @Scotty @QuantumMechanic @Zuma @Nunchucks @Hyped @Hammer of Thor @Ivan @One-If-By-Sea @The Brandon Five @betterthanthealternative
and many i forgot..


motto of the thread of course:
“It's not about collecting talent, it's about building a team.“ -BB

 

[long distance]

INTRO

Some initial thoughts before we go to more concrete things..

There will be plenty of threads following roster moves, players speculations, discussing wish lists, needs etc. This place should be more about comprehensive information, roster philosophies, cap nuances including all aspects of offseason, combining wide free agency landscapes (incl. future ones), draft (incl. UDFA + future draft prospects & draft capital) etc .. so that we can be better prepared when Bill needs our help

Some pundits are suggesting a very aggressive NE Free Agency bc of big cap space, ton of needs or some silly notions of outside pressure. We will see soon enough how aggressive BB will be and what aggressive means, id rather expect business as usual since i saw BB always as both aggressive & sustainable at his roster building approach, this year just on a different scale due to unique circumstances.

This unique offseason also offers intriguing questions and poses tough challenges to team managers so those are some initial things id like we discuss:

1. For the first time in 10 years the cap will not increase (by some 6%) and will instead significantly decrease (by some 10%). That means around $30M net loss per team cap. Moreover it will affect next years cap in a negative way as well etc. bc it will not increase by 15%-20% to catch up with 2020 projections of the future. Last year's new contracts, extensions, restructures were signed under assumption of some $210M cap in 2021 & $222M in 2022 etc. This of course means many teams are in cap hell or very tight and will have to cut or restructure contracts they'd otherwise like to keep. As we already saw, this will have effect not only on Free Agency signings but also on trade market. Bouye and Watt maybe could have trade market (ok Watt was also a special team friendly case) if cap was as expected and there will be many other cases to follow. Usually trading for top players is very economical since parts of the contract (prorated) are already paid for. GMs will now face a question if it makes sense to take on those contracts since new contracts will be lower in most cases esp. after top tier.

f.e.: OBJ, Julio Jones, M.Thomas contracts will probably still be significantly cheaper to top tier WR FAs like Robinson & Godwin but not to the extent of previous years and since they also carry significant compensation (1-2 round pick) GMs will probably think twice. This might be more evident with players below top tier: Shepard's contract would normally look interesting to trade for (7, 8.5, 9.5) lets say for a 2-3 round pick, now you might get Fuller, C.Davis or Hilton for this money and no picks. While cap hell will make good players more accessible to trade for, market situation & compensation will make them a bit less attractive.

It will also be interesting to see how construction & length of contracts will go - id assume teams will push for longer contracts to extend lower market values into the future & managers will push in the other direction to cash in at better market.

Im sure BB will try to make best use of these unexpected anomalies in the market & Im curious to see how he goes about it (more about this in further posts). Furthermore he is for the first time in prime position to make best use of traditional spring cleanings of new managements and there were 10 of them this yr: ATL, DET, PHI, NYJ, HOU, JAX, LAC, CAR, DEN, WAS

*

i have a few more intro topics to open but lets start with this one.

In the next days i will also post comprehensive roster / market rundowns BY POSITION & then we can analyze it together:

1. Roster + opt-outs (5y option Wynn,Sony)
2. NE FA (+ possible extensions)
3. FA
4. possible cuts
5. possible trades/good contracts
6. Draft & UDFA

i will try to post systematically . but please add, discuss anything at any point you wish

 

[long distance]

BB TRADE vs FA BIG SIGNINGS PATTERN


Looking at last 10y of BB Free Agency & Trade history (probably not much different before that) there is a clear pattern that should be kept in mind when speculating on this offseason.

Rule #1: Top players are acquired via trade, solid starters for mid to quarter market $ in Free Agency.
(two notable exception were top market free agent signings of top shutdown corners Revis and Gilmore.)

By far the most capital (traded picks & $) is invested in two positions: CB & WR; more specifically #1 CB, slot WR/TE, outside WR.
(so much for the myths of BB not investing in WRs or “not giving weapons to Brady“)

Another position targeted somewhat regularly in trades and mid market $ is DE but for much less capital (w BB searching for undervalued edge setting and run defending qualities)

Other positions are normally filled through Draft and lower FA/trade market - looking for bargains and taking shots on outcasts.

Of course during this period he had top QB and while he had normally decent cap room it was nowhere near what he has this year.

While he is a master of opportunities, his fundamental belief system is visibly present even in this volatile area.


We will see if/how these unique circumstances - incl. before mentioned change in trade vs FA contract values - change the pattern

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

General Thoughts:

In general, having a lot of cap space is an unfavorable position. Teams typically make a lot of splash moves to claim a return to contention, but it almost never works out due to the nature of free agency. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winner's_curse

Hence when you look at the better franchises, there’s usually a much smaller allotment of cap space each offseason used to fill out the roster and plug holes. Most of the allocation is already used for cornerstone players and the QB. No team better exemplifies this approach than the Patriots, and all three AFC East rivals were/are the worst culprits of trying to rebuild through free agency by paying market for guys who were the best free agents but far from the best at their positions.

So, the 2021 offseason presents a situation unlike we’ve seen under Belichick, or at least since the very early 2000s. I’m interested to see his approach.

 

[Hyped]

Thanks for the mention. Yeah, I‘ll drop in this thread whenever I can.

Right now, I am just waiting for all FA dominoes to fall....then I usually do a draft deep dive after FA whittles down the Pats’ prospect list....then after that it’s all about low cost veterans.

God, I can’t wait for the off season to get started.....

 

[long distance]

General Thoughts:

In general, having a lot of cap space is an unfavorable position. Teams typically make a lot of splash moves to claim a return to contention, but it almost never works out due to the nature of free agency. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winner's_curse

Hence when you look at the better franchises, there’s usually a much smaller allotment of cap space each offseason used to fill out the roster and plug holes. Most of the allocation is already used for cornerstone players and the QB. No team better exemplifies this approach than the Patriots, and all three AFC East rivals were/are the worst culprits of trying to rebuild through free agency by paying market for guys who were the best free agents but far from the best at their positions.

So, the 2021 offseason presents a situation unlike we’ve seen under Belichick, or at least since the very early 2000s. I’m interested to see his approach.

This was uncanny - you guessed my next post!

Most franchises fluctuate depending on QB situation. They are better now bc they have franchise QB and for the same reason they have limited cap.
I do agree that piling of big contracts while you dont have decent QB will always get you in trouble.

I was just going through cap hit structures of the teams & looked at how many contracts make 50% or more of teams's total cap.

Here are some teams that are normally sound in roster building and some who gamble.
You have three general categories - teams with top QB contracts (35-40), medium (20-30) and teams with rookie QBs.

2021 CAP SPACE = 180M

LAR : 4* contracts make +50% of team cap — QB Stafford 20M — (- 34M cap space) — *(3 contracts + 30M dead $)
SEA : 5 contracts make +50% of team cap — QB Wilson 32M -- (+5M cap)

TB : 6 contracts make +50% of team cap -- QB Brady 28.4 (+15M cap space)
KC : 4 contracts make +50% of team cap — QB Mahomes 24.8M (- 23M cap space)

TEN : 6 contracts make +50% of team cap — QB Tannehill 29.5M (+13.5 cap)
SF : 6 contracts make +50% of team cap — QB Garoppolo 26.5M (+13.5 cap)
CAR : 7 contracts make +50% of team cap — QB Bridgewater 23M (+12M cap space)

BUF : 13 contracts make +50% of team cap (7-14M range) — QB Allen rookie deal — (- 2M cap space)
NYG : 7 contracts make +50% of team cap (9-17M range) -- QB Jones rookie deal -- (+1.3M cap space)

This is of course a bit harsh picture since nobody counted on minus 30M cap available in 2021. But this is also before re-signing any of own Free Agents or use of Franchise Tag.

Still the lesson is the same. If you have 4-5 contracts eating more than half of your cap it will be impossible to build depth and you're gambling on being extremely healthy. Rave reviews were written about KC handling cap just days before SB and the game brutally exposed lack of depth.
And this was under 2020 198M cap with Mahomes at 5M cap hit!
It will not be easy being KC fan after this season - trembling every minute of every game that one of top 4 players (outside Mahomes) doesn't get injured. It was never a good idea to sign Clark & Mathieu to those deals even if the cap would go up.

If you look at two teams on rookie QBs you can see the difference between measured roster building of BUF and hysteria of NYG. When Jones's contract comes up Giants will need a lot of re-thinking while BUF can keep sustainable runs even on top Allen's contract (unless he falls of the cliff).

Not to mention CHI absolute insanity. I feel for their fan base.

We should be careful what we wish for..

Depending on QB outcome (and big contract opt-outs decisions) Pats will have a lot of room even for big contracts - but i agree with you - i wouldn't wish for more than 2-3 over 15 apy (QB incl.). You don't have to load up there in one year - it almost never works.

What we could see is loading up on those medium contracts (5-10M apy). Surprisingly good players should be available at that price this year..
but thats already a topic for another post

 

[long distance]

ROSTER SNAPSHOT

For further discussion here is a snapshot of NE roster with age, year of contract expire and cap hit.
I have 64 players listed since I included two restricted FA that i feel confident Pats will bring back (or at least tender JC Jackson)

QB - 4Stidham (25, 2022, $0.8), 8Dolegala (24,futures)

RB - 26Michel* (26, 2021+1, $3), 37D.Harris (24, 2022, $1), 42JJ.Taylor (23, 2022, $0,8), 38Bolden* (31, 2021, $2),
FB - 47Johnson* (26, ERFA, +1-*international), #Vitale (27, 2021, $1,3)

WR - 11Edelman* (35, 2021, $6.1), 15Harry (23, 2022+1, $2,8), 16Meyers (24, 2021, $0,9), 80Olszewski* (24, 2021, $0,9), 13Lee (29, 2021, $1),
19Zuber (24, futures), 13D.Smith (29, futures), 17Wilkerson (24, futures)

TE - 85Izzo* (25, 2021, $0.9), 86Asiasi (24, 2023, $1), 44Keene (22, 2023, $1), 83LaCosse* (29, 2021, 1.5$)

OT - 76Wynn (25,2021+1,$3.6), 75Herron (25,2023,$0,8), 77Cajuste (25,2022,$1), 74Cunningham (26,2021,$0,9), 61Cannon (33, 2022, $9.6)

IOL - 69Mason (28,2023,$9.8), 71Onwenu™ (23,2023,$0,8), 68M.Martin (LG,27,2021,$0.9), 68Toran (G,25,2021,$0,8), 64Reynolds (G,25,futures)


DT - 99Cowart (25,2022,$0,9), 52Spence (29,2021,$2), 94B.Allen (29,2021,$3), 76M.Barnett (24,2022,$0,8)
92Thurman (26,futures), 97Murray (24,futures)

ED - 50Winovich* (26,2022,$1.1), 96Bower (26,2021,$0,9), 43Berry (24,2021,$0.8),

LB - 51Bentley* (25, 2021, $1), 53Uche* (23,2023,$1.2), 58Jennings* (24,2023,$1), 59Hall (24,2021,$0.8), 46Maluia* (22,2021,$0.8)
54Hightower (31, 2021, $12.5), 48Pinckney (23, futures)

S - 32D.McCourty* (34,2021,$11.2), 21Phillips* (29,2021,$3.5), 35Dugger* (25,2023,$1.9), 23Chung* (34,2024,$5.1), 41Bryant* (23,2022,$0.9)

CB - 24Gilmore (31,2021,$16.3), 27JC.Jackson (25,RFA), 31J.Jones* (28,2022,$7.1), 33Williams* (23,2022,$1.8), 45M.Jackson (24,2021,$0.8)
38Virgin (27,2021,$0.9), 39Ross (24,futures)

ST - 7Bailey (24,2022,$0.9), 49Cardona (29,2022,$1.1), 5Rohrwasser (24,futures), 9Aguayo (27,futures)
18Slater (36,2021,$3), 36King (28,2021,$1.4)

Grey are players with some uncertainty, mostly opt-outs, green are practice squad players signed to just futures deals.
Orange are contracts/players that i feel could be cut/re-negotiated. *= core ST

 

[luuked]

Depending on QB outcome (and big contract opt-outs decisions) Pats will have a lot of room even for big contracts - but i agree with you - i wouldn't wish for more than 2-3 over 15 apy (QB incl.). You don't have to load up there in one year - it almost never works.

I think the mistake a lot of people are making is assuming that BB will stock up on star level players whenever it is mentioned how much of an opportunity this offseason is with a lot of teams needing to shed contracts. What I think is much closer to reality is that we will stock up on a couple middle class players -- which fall victim to the falling salary cap -- and who can play certain roles very well but are more limited outside their niche (e.g. think KVN-esque players).

But then again you came to the same conclusion:

What we could see is loading up on those medium contracts (5-10M apy). Surprisingly good players should be available at that price this year..
but thats already a topic for another post

The one wildcard for big contract I leave open is a chess piece on offense whether that is a WR1 or plug and play TE. This is the one place where I see investing more than usual having a bigger ROI because it would have an associated effect on Edelman, Harry, Meyers & co where they'd face more favorable coverages.

Personally, I'd love to get my hands on Hunter Henry because he'd fill the Gronk mold with contributions in the passing game as well as the blocking game. It would also open up a return to actual two TE sets with Asiasi hopefully making a jump if he can stay healthy through the offseason and camp but that is a different story for a different post.

 

[long distance]

I think the mistake a lot of people are making is assuming that BB will stock up on star level players whenever it is mentioned how much of an opportunity this offseason is with a lot of teams needing to shed contracts. What I think is much closer to reality is that we will stock up on a couple middle class players -- which fall victim to the falling salary cap -- and who can play certain roles very well but are more limited outside their niche (e.g. think KVN-esque players).

thanks for joining! Was just writing this post in the same line

ROSTER BALANCE

At the moment Pats not only have uncharacteristically many starting positions to fill but glaringly unbalanced roster in terms of age. That is one thing that is generally overlooked but is essential imo; having players in their prime on long term deals = sound roster & cap.

Of 62 players currently under contract only 7 are in their prime (27-30) and only one of them is a starter - Mason + two regulars/rotational (J.Jones, Phillips) (im not including very uncertain players like opt-outs that never played a snap for NE). 8 players are well over 30 and the rest are kids many of them not having even one full year in the process.

This is combination of poor Draft classes over last several yrs & relative cap constraints & some FA misses as well. From 2013-2016 (2nd contract/prime yrs) - only Mason and Cardona are still on the roster. Keeping home grown talent is not always easy but is essential to have it to some extent as important part of the core of your roster. They will probably bring Andrews back, maybe Wise and White but it still wont be the home core you'd like.

Thats another reason why I would expect loading on those medium contracts to bring in as many solid young vets in their prime.
If this is a rebuild - and i think it is more than normally under BB - some larger selection process should be part of it.

You can bring in a lot of solid young vets to compete in this yr and also compete for the future on this team even if you just go down 1 tier.

Here is an example i was doing last night when I saw Rams have two solid (but not top tier) WRs on close to 15M cap hit. Thats insane! 30M tied to just two solid WRs!

2x15M = 2WR contracts like Rams (Kupp+Woods)
c.30M = prime Edelman/Humphries (7) + M.Jones/TY or similar (6) + Harry/Higgins (3) + Meyers (1) + Olszewki-PR (1) + rookie WR (1)
+ TE1 J.Smith/Higbee (8) + Asiasi (1) + White (3) = entire rec offence + depth

*The numbers here are projected 1st yr cap hits on new contracts not apy. Names are just examples not necessarily my favs


BTW - I would also expect trading some draft picks away bc they need young veterans much more then 10 new drafted rookies..


@luuked - ill come to the second part of your post later since i just studied a bit the top TE/slot field

 

[Steve102]

I think the mistake a lot of people are making is assuming that BB will stock up on star level players whenever it is mentioned how much of an opportunity this offseason is with a lot of teams needing to shed contracts. What I think is much closer to reality is that we will stock up on a couple middle class players -- which fall victim to the falling salary cap -- and who can play certain roles very well but are more limited outside their niche (e.g. think KVN-esque players).

But then again you came to the same conclusion:



The one wildcard for big contract I leave open is a chess piece on offense whether that is a WR1 or plug and play TE. This is the one place where I see investing more than usual having a bigger ROI because it would have an associated effect on Edelman, Harry, Meyers & co where they'd face more favorable coverages.

Personally, I'd love to get my hands on Hunter Henry because he'd fill the Gronk mold with contributions in the passing game as well as the blocking game. It would also open up a return to actual two TE sets with Asiasi hopefully making a jump if he can stay healthy through the offseason and camp but that is a different story for a different post.

100% agreement on this post. Gimme a bunch of middle class guys and Hunter Henry and I think we will be off and running. Assuming of course, that the QB situation improves. I have said before, the next guy doesn't need to be Tom Brady 2.0, and almost assuredly will not be. The Favre to Rodgers and Montana to Young situation is very rare. If you think about it, we had The Guy and followed him up with The GOAT, in the succession of Bledsoe to Brady. I think we will be very fortunate to get a guy who is adequate for a few years, one who is capable of a deep playoff run. A Nick Foles, Jeff Hostetler type of guy.

 

[micronin127]

Love the format of your roster listing!

Another dimension would be a depth view by player rating. Players are rated in tiers: 1, 2, 3, 4 (1-elite, 2-starter, 3-backup, 4-marginal).

I think that in this view at QB, the Patriots have at best a 3 (Stidham) and a 4 (Dolegala). So, Stidham would be the starter by default even though he is a backup.

I think that the Patriots will invest in both lines, though especially the defensive line. I think that they will be looking for players in a certain age/skill range. Age: 26-28, Skill Tier 1/2 and look to pay them for a long-term deal, 4-5 years. They can probably afford to bring in 3-4 starters.

 

[long distance]

Thanks @micronin127!

I just make provisional depth listing since i dont know the actual depth or what they really think of so many young players; and fans listings can only be desperately subjective. Unfortunately BB lost my number so i can't ask him either I agree it would be a very welcome addition, but probably best everyone does it for himself

I hope after all positions overview posts we can have a wider discussion and maybe define empty slots together..

One of the reasons i wanted to invest a bit more in depth into following this offseason is that with so much cap we will probably get some answers about BB roster building that were previously less possible. And we will also get better answers about how he really feels about this roster..

 

[long distance]

TE COMPREHENSIVE OFFSEASON RUNDOWN

@luuked opened up going for top TE discussion so i might as well start position rundowns with TE group.
As mentioned at the beginning the goal here is to look at each position as extensive as possible.
There are 4 players currently under contract. (Note that Pats normally carry 7 TE to Training Camp):

TE - 85Izzo* (25, 2021, $0.9), 86Asiasi (24, 2023, $1), 44Keene (22, 2023, $1), 83LaCosse* (29, 2021, 1.5$)

While Izzo has enough experience in the system this is a young room . with only vet being uncertain if he comes back after opt-out.
Patriots don't have their own Free Agents.

Here is the combined comprehensive list of Free Agency - Possible Trade/Cut options - Draft - UDFA:


FREE AGENTS ..... top market: 15M-apy

Jonnu Smith, 26, TEN (BB praise) [8-10]
Henry, 26, LAC (BB praise/long follow/HS.conn;block regression) [11-12]
Everett, 27, LAR [5-7]
Gronk, 32, TB — TB [10]
Cook, 34, NO — [5]
Jordan Reed, 30, SF (inj2019/concusions) (avg block)
Manhertz, 29, CAR (top PP/run block)
Alie-Cox, 27, IND — RFA —
Tonyan, 27, GB — RFA —
Pruitt, 28, TEN (+run block) [2]
Trey Burton, 29, IND [3]
Richard Rodgers, 29, PHI (+ST)
Arnold, 26, ARI
Hollister, 27, SEA
O’Leary, 29, LV
Kroft, 28, BUF
O’Shaughnessy, 29, JAX
Swaim, 28, TEN (block)
Bell, 30, DAL (block)
-
Boyle, 28, BAL — 2y/13M (10.5gtd)

TRADE OPTIONS/CUTS

[Ertz, 31, PHI — (8.3) /4rd-pick/— IND, SEA,
[Higbee, 29, LAR (6.9,6.3,6.3)
[Brate, 30, TB (6.5,6.8,7.5)
[OJ Howard, 27, TB (6) — possible cut —
[Rudolph, 32, MIN (8,8.5,10/5) (improving@block) — possible cut —
[Njoku, 25, CLE (6) — possible cut —
[Engram, 27, NYG (6) — possible cut —
[Jesse James, 27, DET (5, 5.7)
[Graham, 35, CHI (7) — possible cut —
[Uzomah, 28, CIN (5) (block) — possible cut —
[Vannett, 28, DEN (block) (2.6) — possible cut —
[J.Hill, 31, NO (block) (2.6) — possible cut —

DRAFT

(TE)WR *Kyle Pitts #84 Florida (6’6-240) - 1
TE *Pat Freiermuth #87 Penn St (6’5-260) - 1/2
TE *Brevin Jordan # Miami (6’3-245)
TE Hunter Long # Boston (6’5-254)
TE Tony Poljan # Virginia (6’7-265/225?)
TE/FB Tommy Tremble # ND (6’4-248)
TE Tre McKitty #87 Georgia (6’4-247-11“)
TE Kenny Yeboah # Ole Miss (6’3-247)

INTERESTING POSSIBLE UDFA

TE John Bates # Boise St (6’5-260) - /++ST


[8-10] = projected apy contract (2021 cap hit 20-30% lower) - projections are not mine
(6.9,6.3,6.3) = cap hits of remaining contract yrs. black is guaranteed, grey not gtd

Boyle was already re-signed by BAL and can be used as market assessment.

I have to run so my analisys and comments will follow.
I hope @BaconGrundleCandy can add & comment Draft options. Also add some possible interesting UDFA prospects.

Take your picks

 

[Tony2046]

Love the format of your roster listing!

Another dimension would be a depth view by player rating. Players are rated in tiers: 1, 2, 3, 4 (1-elite, 2-starter, 3-backup, 4-marginal).

I think that in this view at QB, the Patriots have at best a 3 (Stidham) and a 4 (Dolegala). So, Stidham would be the starter by default even though he is a backup.

I think that the Patriots will invest in both lines, though especially the defensive line. I think that they will be looking for players in a certain age/skill range. Age: 26-28, Skill Tier 1/2 and look to pay them for a long-term deal, 4-5 years. They can probably afford to bring in 3-4 starters.

Ok. This is astonishing. Can't believe that it's not more prevalent. I love it. Thank you.

Is there a way that we could add positional value?

 

[long distance]

TE COMPREHENSIVE OFFSEASON RUNDOWN

TE - 85Izzo* (25, 2021, $0.9), 86Asiasi (24, 2023, $1), 44Keene (22, 2023, $1), 83LaCosse* (29, 2021, 1.5$)

FREE AGENTS ..... top market: 15M-apy

Jonnu Smith, 26, TEN (BB praise) [8-10]
Henry, 26, LAC (BB praise/long follow/HS.conn;block regression) [11-12]
Everett, 27, LAR [5-7]
Gronk, 32, TB — TB [10]
Jordan Reed, 30, SF (inj2019/concusions) (avg block)
Alie-Cox, 27, IND — RFA —
Tonyan, 27, GB — RFA —
Pruitt, 28, TEN (+run block) [2]
Trey Burton, 29, IND [3]
Richard Rodgers, 29, PHI (+ST)
Arnold, 26, ARI
Hollister, 27, SEA
O’Leary, 29, LV
Kroft, 28, BUF
O’Shaughnessy, 29, JAX
Swaim, 28, TEN (block)
Bell, 30, DAL (block)
-
Boyle, 28, BAL — 2y/13M (10.5gtd)

TRADE OPTIONS/CUTS

[Ertz, 31, PHI — (8.3) /4rd-pick/— IND, SEA,
[Higbee, 29, LAR (6.9,6.3,6.3)
[Brate, 30, TB (6.5,6.8,7.5)
[Cook, 34, NO (9) — likely cut — [5]
[OJ Howard, 27, TB (6) — possible cut —
[Rudolph, 32, MIN (8,8.5,10/5) (improving@block) — possible cut —
[Njoku, 25, CLE (6) — possible cut —
[Engram, 27, NYG (6) — possible cut —
[Jesse James, 27, DET (5, 5.7)
[Graham, 35, CHI (7) — possible cut —
[Vannett, 28, DEN (block) (2.6) — possible cut —
[J.Hill, 31, NO (block) (2.6) — possible cut —

DRAFT

(TE)WR *Kyle Pitts #84 Florida (6’6-240) - 1
TE *Pat Freiermuth #87 Penn St (6’5-260) - 1/2
TE *Brevin Jordan # Miami (6’3-245)
TE Hunter Long # Boston (6’5-254)
TE Tony Poljan # Virginia (6’7-265/225?)
TE/FB Tommy Tremble # ND (6’4-248)
TE Tre McKitty #87 Georgia (6’4-247-11“)
TE Kenny Yeboah # Ole Miss (6’3-247)

INTERESTING POSSIBLE UDFA

TE John Bates # Boise St (6’5-260) - /++ST

Ok, let me add my take. This is a position I was most surprised/disappointed about BBs management over last 3 years. It was hard to believe how the traditional position of strength became a position of weakness. It is a long list of misses and borderline malpractice topped with using 5th round pick on O'Shaughnessy instead of using it for Kittle from Bills beloved Iowa (w slight trade up - if he didn't want to use a higher pick like many of our draft board were screaming).

There is only one vet on the roster here and one that did not see much of the field since he was brought in (not that there were any real expectation regarding LaCosse in the first place). There is a young core - but they would need to significantly step up to secure a roster spot if BB means to finally be serious with the position he needs more than ever wo good QB and emphasis on running game/play action.

I expect and hope that TE1 is the position BB seriously targets in Free Agency like @luuked suggested earlier. It is a position of value in FA and has some good options for trade as well.

Top options (FA&trade combined) are Smith, Henry, Ertz, Higbee and Brate - and i really hope one of them wears Pats uniform this yr. I think BB likes all of them so that should not be a problem. I would go for younger options/longer contract - for two reasons: the age balance of core roster discussed previously & big uncertainty of the future of the position. So not Ertz but either Smith or Henry with Higbee being a dark horse option if BB gives up in bidding wars for the two top FAs.

My personal preference would be Smith: he is more athletic, faster and under Vrabel developed into solid blocker. He improved every year and is still improving. He is also stronger in YAC & he looks to be more dependant injury wise as well. Henry is bigger, more to BBs prototype, although red zone efficiency were similar. Injuries slowed him down a bit and he was somehow able to regress as a blocker. Smith could also present easier competition since Titans are in cap trouble while Chargers are well positioned to fight for their FA if they choose so. Both are projected at around 10M apy with top market set by Kittle & Kelce standing at 15M so one of them could go higher than 10.

From value stand point trading for top TE would be cheaper: both Higbee and Brate at 6.5M apy, Errtz in his last yr 8.3M. Ertz is available for trade and might also be cut. The cost floated around is 4th rounder. Higbee and Brate would be more difficult to get since Tampa is ok in cap and Rams probably see him as core piece of going all in although something will have to give there with their cap situation. But as we know - everyone has a price tag..

Later much cheaper but also questionable TE1 options should be available like Rudolph, Cook, OJ Howard, Reed, Njoku.

Later in FA they will probably bring another vet or two to compete with Izzo for blocking TE. I wouldn't mind Vanett, Pruitt or Richard Rodgers also adding some ST value.

DRAFT: They drafted two TEs last year and invested a lot of Draft capital so im not sure they'd want to invest much more at this point. Pitts is a different chapter bc he is more of a big receiver and is seen as one of big 4 receivers in this draft. If he somehow falls to #15 it will be interesting to see what BB thinks of him. Freiermuth is as PTP/BB as it gets - if BB misses out on top TE in FA he might be an option despite drafting 2 last yr but that is not how BB usually operates. More realistic are lower rounds as @captain stone suggested - @BaconGrundleCandy will give us a more in-depth look there and also UDFA. In the UDFA range so far I like Bates who projects as core ST as well.

Interested to hear your thoughts, picks etc..

 

[long distance]

Here is another intriguing option i missed in my listing - one of the best Pass protectors and run blockers in the game -
Chris Manhertz:

Tight End Trilogy: Chris Manhertz | The Riot Report

Taking a look at Chris Manhertz and what his role was on in the Panthers in 2018 - and how they could set him up for success more in 2019.

theriotreport.com

 

[long distance]

To sum up - Pats will probably carry 6 TEs to training camp. This would be my list atm:

TE1/HB
Smith (FA) = 6-7M 2021 cap hit (8-10 apy)

TE2/HB/ST
Asiasi = 1M
Keene = 1M

TE3/BLOCK/(ST)
Manhertz (FA) = 1.5M
Izzo = 1M
Bates (UDFA)


unless @BaconGrundleCandy can talk me into taking one in the Draft

 

[long distance]

nice to see @Miguel on board for TE Smith in FA

 

[Tony2046]

Thanks @long distance . Great thread. I'll try to participate when I can.

 

[long distance]

Good to remember over the next month when thinking about im/possibility of bringing in players that generate “ton of interest“.