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GM LOUNGE :: part 3

2021 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: vs Dolphins
Pick Results: MIA: 0% at NE: 0%

Sun
Sep 12th

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:

long distance

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Let me add this also here (posted earlier in BGC thread) since it is more of a GM post and i will add some additional QB GM thoughts later..


@ QB

1. It is very likely Patriots will draft a QB this year not necessary bc of need or exceptional prospects but bc that is what they do.
Over last 20 years they drafted QB every other year (on avg) no matter the circumstances. The only question is how high.

2. It is not likely (although possible) they will reach for a QB.
Lombardi, who is now beating Mac Jones drum did the same for Jimmy in 2014 (but on the inside). He was very nervous when Bill didn't want to take him in 1st (despite 5th y option benefit) although they all liked him and were determined to draft one of the top QBs. Lombardi was sure he wouldn't make it past HOU at 33. They took Easly at #29 despite 2 ACL tears in 3 yrs. So not exactly a sure thing long term blue chip player. After Carr went at #36 Jimmy was the last remaining they liked. Yet BB waited for almost 30 picks to take him with their own 62.

Some may say situation was different then since they had Tom (at 37) still going strong. That doesn't necessarily mean situation was/is much different for BB. He has a starter for 2021 for the value he felt good about. No matter what fans & media think of Cam i haven't seen one ounce of evidence BB doesn't see him as (possible) starter for 2021 or that he doesn't believe Cam can play “good enough“. What is different is that Cam is signed for 1y so there is no long term commitment. He is still 31 though (32 in May) and if he plays “good enough“ there is always an outside chance they might want to bring him back (at a price they believe has value).

So unless BB absolutely falls in love with certain QB in this class (id like to see the odds on that :)) id guess he will be patient as always and wait for the opportunity.

3. Many are arguing that he didn't invest so much in this roster to give it to Cam - so something bigger/better must be the answer at QB.
Id argue the opposite - he built the roster to be as little dependant on QB as possible. And he did it because he had the opportunity to do it
(he had the cap and players were available and willing to sign).

4. Id guess drafting QB this year will again be about value and opportunity. Acc. to Lombardi they valued Carr, Jimmy, Manziel and Teddy B similarly. And if anything - this years NE QB draft should be less dramatic. They have no opportunity to draft one of the top 3. Evaluations of others are all over the place (and that might include #3). The one QB who might be available at #15 (Mac) is the one they will have best possible info of all on the things that really matter at QB. And if BB values f.e. Lance, Mac, Mills, Mond closer than most outsiders do (bc he would focus on what they can do not what they cannot do and on “good enough“ not “better“) it might be a long waiting game like with Jimmy..

BTW
If BB values Jimmy (2022), Mac and Mills similarly - like some evaluators do - going by presumed price tags - Jimmy in 2022 = 25.5M + 2022 2nd round pick; Mac #15 + 6M (2021+2022); Mills #46 + 3.4M (2021+2022) - Mills would be the value option at the moment. After the season you reassess and look for new best opportunities (that could include BBs top option Rodgers, more realistic Jimmy etc..)

-.-
 
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captain stone

Hall of Fame Poster
Another question to consider: What does Bill really think of Stid? Is it well enough that he can afford to wait for Lance or Jones or (gulp) Fields to fall to #15, or at least close enough that a more reasonable trade-up becomes feasible? For example, in 2018 the Cardinals traded #s 15, 79 & 152 to the Raiders for #10 and the opportunity to select...Josh Rosen; Bill could offer a similar package of 15, 96 & 139 for the same opportunity...
 

venecol

The FRG has a little ****
Another question to consider: What does Bill really think of Stid? Is it well enough that he can afford to wait for Lance or Jones or (gulp) Fields to fall to #15, or at least close enough that a more reasonable trade-up becomes feasible? For example, in 2018 the Cardinals traded #s 15, 79 & 152 to the Raiders for #10 and the opportunity to select...Josh Rosen; Bill could offer a similar package of 15, 96 & 139 for the same opportunity...
Ok I'm all in, as long as you promise we don't end up with another Rosen. Lol
 

Kenneth Sims

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Imagine how the history of the Patriots could have been different if the Pats had selected Garappolo in the 1st round in 2014 rather than the 2nd and had the 5th year option for him in 2018. It would have cost them $10 million to keep Garappolo in 2018 rather than $25 million and who knows but it might have allowed for a clean succession from Tom to Jimmy,
 

jah

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Another question to consider: What does Bill really think of Stid? Is it well enough that he can afford to wait for Lance or Jones or (gulp) Fields to fall to #15, or at least close enough that a more reasonable trade-up becomes feasible? For example, in 2018 the Cardinals traded #s 15, 79 & 152 to the Raiders for #10 and the opportunity to select...Josh Rosen; Bill could offer a similar package of 15, 96 & 139 for the same opportunity...
This is a perfect example of why I hate the idea of trading up to get one of the "lesser" first round QB. Justin Herbert scared me for similar reasons and he's the only counterexample I can think of going back quite some time.
 

micronin127

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Listening to Mara talk up Daniel Jones over the weekend... I couldn't help thinking that he was talking himself into it. That puts Joe Judge and Dave Gettelman on notice. "This kid better be able to play."

If they like Mills and Mond roughly the same, well they can probably take their pick in the 2nd round. They might even be able to get one of them early on Day 3. After the first round rush of QBs, teams tend to ignore the position and start filling needs along their lines, CB, WR, etc... and it can last until the 4th round before teams take the remaining QBs off the board.

I see the value of getting a premium player with pick #15 because of the run on QBs. The following 16 names are my attempt at narrowing things down to a top 15.... I also don't know how many players have 1st round grades according to the teams, not the mock drafters... I didn't know whose name to remove as #16 was thinking Oweh or Paye. Was hard to scratch out Jaycee Horn and Christian Darrisaw on the way to a top-16.

There are usually tiers in a draft... for example, 8 elite players, 20 overall with first round grades, all players between 20-75 are roughly graded the same... teams may value higher/lower based on scheme fit. Where are the lines drawn with this talent pool given that so many players opted out or played fewer games in 2020 and the certainty of the grading is a bit suspect. Depending on how the draft falls, we could get a truly elite player at #15. If we can't, but another team thinks it can since grading varies, then we should trade down.

QB
Lawrence
Wilson
Fields
Lance
Jones

WR
Chase
Smith
Waddle

TE
Pitts

OT
Sewell
Slater

DT
Barmore

DE
Paye
Oweh

LB
Parsons

CB
Surtain II
 

50-yard-line

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Ok I'm all in, as long as you promise we don't end up with another Rosen. Lol
Rosen is the perfect example of what could go wrong. He's got an NFL arm, without doubt. But there are so many other variables - he wasn't ready for the speed of the game and his OL wasn't ready for the speed of the DL. I wonder what he might have become if someone like Andy Reid had drafted him. For all his other issues, Reid puts together a great O for a QB.
 

Ring 6

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Rosen is the perfect example of what could go wrong. He's got an NFL arm, without doubt. But there are so many other variables - he wasn't ready for the speed of the game and his OL wasn't ready for the speed of the DL. I wonder what he might have become if someone like Andy Reid had drafted him. For all his other issues, Reid puts together a great O for a QB.
Coaching has a huge impact on QB development. How you coach them can be more important than who you pick.
 

Ring 6

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Imagine how the history of the Patriots could have been different if the Pats had selected Garappolo in the 1st round in 2014 rather than the 2nd and had the 5th year option for him in 2018. It would have cost them $10 million to keep Garappolo in 2018 rather than $25 million and who knows but it might have allowed for a clean succession from Tom to Jimmy,
It wouldn’t have mattered. You aren’t encouraging Brady to walk after winning the SB.
 

captain stone

Hall of Fame Poster
Imagine how the history of the Patriots could have been different if the Pats had selected Garappolo in the 1st round in 2014 rather than the 2nd and had the 5th year option for him in 2018. It would have cost them $10 million to keep Garappolo in 2018 rather than $25 million and who knows but it might have allowed for a clean succession from Tom to Jimmy,

The advantage of having that 5th year would've been sweet, but Bill was smart to wait until #62 for Grop...Where he wasn't smart was using #29 on Dom Easily when the obvious choice should've been Joel Bitonio as Logan Mankin$' replacement...
 
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Ochmed Jones

Pro Bowl Player
Another question to consider: What does Bill really think of Stid? Is it well enough that he can afford to wait for Lance or Jones or (gulp) Fields to fall to #15, or at least close enough that a more reasonable trade-up becomes feasible? For example, in 2018 the Cardinals traded #s 15, 79 & 152 to the Raiders for #10 and the opportunity to select...Josh Rosen; Bill could offer a similar package of 15, 96 & 139 for the same opportunity...

this is a make or break season for stidham. Either he competes and wins the starting job or he becomes another in a long line of discarded New England drafted qb’s.
 

venecol

The FRG has a little ****
this is a make or break season for stidham. Either he competes and wins the starting job or he becomes another in a long line of discarded New England drafted qb’s.
He's got a great start, organizing the Pats West tour with paintball activities and all.

20210329_221619.jpg

Apparently, Bill loves paintball. LMAO

“We went paintballing. It was amazing,” Edelman said. “So we do fun activities. We’ve done a couple of field trips. … It was pretty fun walking by and seeing Bill crawl. I swear to God — I think he got hit like four times and didn’t get up, and people were just hitting him. It was hilarious.”
 

Kenneth Sims

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Just a question in case anyone knows the answer.

Per Miguel, the Pats are $12.616 million under the cap. In the event of a trade, how would the Patriots fit Jimmy Garoppolo’s $25 million salary under their cap? Could the 49ers redo the contract before trading it, and the Patriots redo the contract again after the trade? Just interested if anyone has any ideas on how it would work. The last CBA only allowed one contract redo under certain circumstances in a calendar year. Wonder if those rules would allow mechanisms needed to fit Garappolo’s contract in the Patriots’ cap without a sizable pay cut on Garappolo’s part?
 

Hyped

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Just a question in case anyone knows the answer.

Per Miguel, the Pats are $12.616 million under the cap. In the event of a trade, how would the Patriots fit Jimmy Garoppolo’s $25 million salary under their cap? Could the 49ers redo the contract before trading it, and the Patriots redo the contract again after the trade? Just interested if anyone has any ideas on how it would work. The last CBA only allowed one contract redo under certain circumstances in a calendar year. Wonder if those rules would allow mechanisms needed to fit Garappolo’s contract in the Patriots’ cap without a sizable pay cut on Garappolo’s part?

I believe the Niners would need to adjust JG's contract for him to fit under our cap....but we also can restructure so many contracts to create space as well (e.g. Gilmore extension....convert his salary to a signing bonus...save 3-4M....convert Hightower's salary to a bonus as well...and add a voidable year...etc..etc..etc..).

Bottom line, if we want JG...it is possible to fit him under the cap...just need to jump thru a few hoops.
 

long distance

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Just a question in case anyone knows the answer.

Per Miguel, the Pats are $12.616 million under the cap. In the event of a trade, how would the Patriots fit Jimmy Garoppolo’s $25 million salary under their cap? Could the 49ers redo the contract before trading it, and the Patriots redo the contract again after the trade? Just interested if anyone has any ideas on how it would work. The last CBA only allowed one contract redo under certain circumstances in a calendar year. Wonder if those rules would allow mechanisms needed to fit Garappolo’s contract in the Patriots’ cap without a sizable pay cut on Garappolo’s part?

They could since they would be a new team. (What SF does with his contract does not affect new team's right to have one redo allowed afaik).
Pats would need/expect SF & Jimmy redo the contract to fit under cap before trade. Since Jimmy controls the trade and Pats would be buyers the redo would follow their needs so immediate redo after trade would prob not be needed.. The redo (making dead money & add 2021 cap hit for SF) increases the trade price tag.
 
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micronin127

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Given the recent gap in the signings, I suspect they are focused on extending Gilmore if they can before committing any more cap dollars to free agents. They may also be trying to make trades to acquire some draft capital for players they want to move on from.
 

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