GM LOUNGE

[long distance]

Pats Receive:
Julio Jones

Falcons Receive:
2022 2nd Rounder
N. Harry
2023 4th rounder if needed.
Much needed cap space

Would not offer much more than that. My main point was that he is exactly what this team needs in the short term. He would be perfect for Mac Jones to have at his disposal with the two TE's, Agholor on the other side and Meyers in the slot with Bourne.

In principle this would be a good trade for Patriots and is somewhat realistic although im not sure ATL would want Harry, but they might, 1.5M is not much but it is guaranteed. Its a nice fantasy.

Reality is another story.

1. NE signed 4 receivers in Free Agency for a total 77M fully guaranteed! (not counting White which we should). That is largely over next 2 seasons with only Jonnu having some guarantees in 2023. Adding Julio would raise that total to 95M over next two years - and that is just guaranteed $. That is a lot of cap dedicated to one position.

2. NE pushed a lot of guaranteed $ to 2022 already. They are still in decent position but already below average. Next Free Agency will be again buyers market bc most of the deals (about 80%) were 1y deals meaning most of this year's free agents will be free agents again next year. It would be sensible to save some $ to cary over to next year and take advantage before league salary cap explodes in 2023 & 2024.

3. Signing Julio would take away significant snaps from the 4 receivers already paid for. So they would be spitting on their own Free Agency. With run first - play action offense that is built . adding another expensive receiver would be quite excessive.

4. This extremely aggressive move could make some sense if QB situation was solidified & this was a Superbowl team. With questions about Cam and Mac not playing a single NFL snap i don't think this move makes much sense.

Before making a move like this youd want to know where you are as a team and with so many new players even Bill has no idea despite all his experience. If the team starts playing to its potential early and Cam lights it up (or Mac) then a mid season move like this could come in play. (it would also be almost half cheaper).

Until then lets not get too greedy

 

[micronin127]

@long distance Thanks so much for creating this thread. I really like the progress the team made at a lot of positions this offseason. Is there any chance you have an updated version of this post for a high-level view of the roster as it stands today?

ROSTER SNAPSHOT

For further discussion here is a snapshot of NE roster with age, year of contract expire and cap hit.
I have 64 players listed since I included two restricted FA that i feel confident Pats will bring back (or at least tender JC Jackson)

QB - 4Stidham (25, 2022, $0.8), 8Dolegala (24,futures)

RB - 26Michel* (26, 2021+1, $3), 37D.Harris (24, 2022, $1), 42JJ.Taylor (23, 2022, $0,8), 38Bolden* (31, 2021, $2),
FB - 47Johnson* (26, ERFA, +1-*international), #Vitale (27, 2021, $1,3)

WR - 11Edelman* (35, 2021, $6.1), 15Harry (23, 2022+1, $2,8), 16Meyers (24, 2021, $0,9), 80Olszewski* (24, 2021, $0,9), 13Lee (29, 2021, $1),
19Zuber (24, futures), 13D.Smith (29, futures), 17Wilkerson (24, futures)

TE - 85Izzo* (25, 2021, $0.9), 86Asiasi (24, 2023, $1), 44Keene (22, 2023, $1), 83LaCosse* (29, 2021, 1.5$)

OT - 76Wynn (25,2021+1,$3.6), 75Herron (25,2023,$0,8), 77Cajuste (25,2022,$1), 74Cunningham (26,2021,$0,9), 61Cannon (33, 2022, $9.6)

IOL - 69Mason (28,2023,$9.8), 71Onwenu™ (23,2023,$0,8), 68M.Martin (LG,27,2021,$0.9), 68Toran (G,25,2021,$0,8), 64Reynolds (G,25,futures)


DT - 99Cowart (25,2022,$0,9), 52Spence (29,2021,$2), 94B.Allen (29,2021,$3), 76M.Barnett (24,2022,$0,8)
92Thurman (26,futures), 97Murray (24,futures)

ED - 50Winovich* (26,2022,$1.1), 96Bower (26,2021,$0,9), 43Berry (24,2021,$0.8),

LB - 51Bentley* (25, 2021, $1), 53Uche* (23,2023,$1.2), 58Jennings* (24,2023,$1), 59Hall (24,2021,$0.8), 46Maluia* (22,2021,$0.8)
54Hightower (31, 2021, $12.5), 48Pinckney (23, futures)

S - 32D.McCourty* (34,2021,$11.2), 21Phillips* (29,2021,$3.5), 35Dugger* (25,2023,$1.9), 23Chung* (34,2024,$5.1), 41Bryant* (23,2022,$0.9)

CB - 24Gilmore (31,2021,$16.3), 27JC.Jackson (25,RFA), 31J.Jones* (28,2022,$7.1), 33Williams* (23,2022,$1.8), 45M.Jackson (24,2021,$0.8)
38Virgin (27,2021,$0.9), 39Ross (24,futures)

ST - 7Bailey (24,2022,$0.9), 49Cardona (29,2022,$1.1), 5Rohrwasser (24,futures), 9Aguayo (27,futures)
18Slater (36,2021,$3), 36King (28,2021,$1.4)

Grey are players with some uncertainty, mostly opt-outs, green are practice squad players signed to just futures deals.
Orange are contracts/players that i feel could be cut/re-negotiated. *= core ST

 

[long distance]

@long distance Thanks so much for creating this thread. I really like the progress the team made at a lot of positions this offseason. Is there any chance you have an updated version of this post for a high-level view of the roster as it stands today?

Thanks. Update coming up. I thought id wait for UDFA class but might be a longer wait

 

[long distance]

couloured version i like to keep it like this to have a clear overview HOW the roster was filled.
(you can see immediately the significance of re-build/upgrade - not much of the core left - receiving, DL cores completely redone)
blue - re-signings; brown - UFA; celeste - Draft etc // orange numbers = opt-outs
underlined names - locked by contract, position situation; underlined numbers - close to lock
WR (10-11/5-6) - numbers of TC roster by position (80-90 man roster) / numbers of players by position on 53 roster


QB (3-4/2-3) - 1Newton (32, 2021, $5.4), 10Jones (22, 2024+1, $2.8), 4Stidham (25, 2022, $0.8)

RB (6-7/4-5) - 37D.Harris (24,2022,$1), 26Michel* (26,2021,$3), 28White (29,2021,$2.5), —Stevenson* (23,2024,$0.8), 42JJ.Taylor (23,2022,$0,8), 38Bolden* (31,2021,$2)
FB (2/1) - 47Johnson* (26, 202), $0.9 *roster exemption>international), #Vitale (27, 2021, $1,3)

WR (10-11/5-6) - Agholor (28,2022,$7), 84Bourne, (26,2023,$3.1), 15Harry (23,2022+1,$2,8), 16Meyers (24,2021*,$0,9), 80Olszewski* (24,2021*,$0,9)
19Zuber (24, futures), --Nixon (23,2024,), 13D.Smith (29, futures), 17Wilkerson (24, futures)

TE (6-7/3-4) - Smith (26,2024,$5.7), Henry (26,2023,$6.8), 86Asiasi (24,2023,$1), 44Keene (22,2023,$1), 83LaCosse* (29,2021,1.5$),

OT (5-6/4) - 76Wynn (25,2022,$3.6), Brown (28,2021,$7.6), 75Herron (25,2023,$0,8), 77Cajuste (25,2022,$1), 74Cunningham (26,2021,$0,9)
OG (5-6/3) - 69Mason (28,2023,$9.8), 71Onwenu (23,2023,$0,8), --Sherman (T,22,2024,), 68Toran (G,25,2021,$0,8)
OC (2-3/2) - 60Andrews (29,2024,1.7$), Karras (29, 2021,3$), 68M.Martin (C/LG,27,2021,$0.9)


DL (7/3-4) - Godchaux (27,2022,$4), 93Guy (31,2024,$1.7), --Barmore (22,2024,), Anderson, (30,2022,$2,7), 98C.Davis (29,2022,$0.9), 99Cowart (25,2022,$0,9),
Adams (26,2021,1$), 52Spence (29,2021,$1.2), 92Thurman (26,futures), 97Murray (24,futures)

ED (7/4-5) - Judon (29,2024,$6.4), 50Winovich* (26,2022,$1.1), 55Uche* (23,2023,$1.2), 91Wise* (27,2024,$3.3), --Perkins (21,2024,),
96Bower (26,2021,$0,9), 43Berry (24,2021,$0.8),

LB (7/5-6) - 54Hightower (31,2021,$12.5/10), 53Van Noy (30,2022,$4.4), 51Bentley* (25,2021,$1), 58Jennings* (24,2023,$1),
--McGrone (21,2024,), McMillan (25,2021,$1.2), 59Hall* (24,2021,$0.8)

S (6-7/5-6) - 32D.McCourty* (34,2021,$11.2), 21Phillips* (29,2021,$3.5), 35Dugger* (25,2023,$1.9), 23Mills* (27,2024,4.6$), 41Bryant* (23,2022,$0.9), --Bledsoe (22,2024,)

CB (9-11/5-6) - 24Gilmore (31,2021,$16.3), 27JC.Jackson (25,2021,$3.4), 31J.Jones* (28,2022,$7.1), 33Williams* (23,2022,$1.8), 45M.Jackson (24,2021,$0.8)
38Virgin (27,2021,$0.9), 39Ross (24,futures)

ST - 7Bailey (24,2022,$0.9), 49Cardona (29,2022,$1.1), 6Folk (36, 2021, 1.6$), 9Aguayo (27,futures), --Nordin (23,UDFA)
18Slater (WR,36,2021,$3), 36King (LB,28,2021,$1.4), 29Bethel (SS,31,2023, $), 22Cody Davis (FS,32,2022, $), Reynolds (LB,30, )

-.-

 

[long distance]

no colour version for those colour troubled..

QB (3-4/2-3) - 1Newton (32, 2021, $5.4), 10Jones (22, 2024+1, $2.8), 4Stidham (25, 2022, $0.8)

RB (6-7/4-5) - 37D.Harris (24,2022,$1), 26Michel* (26,2021,$3), 28White (29,2021,$2.5), —Stevenson* (23,2024,$0.8), 42JJ.Taylor (23,2022,$0,8), 38Bolden* (31,2021,$2)
FB (2/1) - 47Johnson* (26, 202), $0.9 *roster exemption>international), #Vitale (27, 2021, $1,3)

WR (10-11/5-6) - Agholor (28,2022,$7), 84Bourne, (26,2023,$3.1), 15Harry (23,2022+1,$2,8), 16Meyers (24,2021*,$0,9), 80Olszewski* (24,2021*,$0,9)
19Zuber (24, futures), --Nixon (23,2024,), 13D.Smith (29, futures), 17Wilkerson (24, futures)

TE (6-7/3-4) - Smith (26,2024,$5.7), Henry (26,2023,$6.8), 86Asiasi (24,2023,$1), 44Keene (22,2023,$1), 83LaCosse* (29,2021,1.5$),

OT (5-6/4) - 76Wynn (25,2022,$3.6), Brown (28,2021,$7.6), 75Herron (25,2023,$0,8), 77Cajuste (25,2022,$1), 74Cunningham (26,2021,$0,9)
OG (5-6/3) - 69Mason (28,2023,$9.8), 71Onwenu (23,2023,$0,8), --Sherman (T,22,2024,), 68Toran (G,25,2021,$0,8)
OC (2-3/2) - 60Andrews (29,2024,1.7$), Karras (29, 2021,3$), 68M.Martin (C/LG,27,2021,$0.9)


DL (7/3-4) - Godchaux (27,2022,$4), 93Guy (31,2024,$1.7), --Barmore (22,2024,), Anderson, (30,2022,$2,7), 98C.Davis (29,2022,$0.9), 99Cowart (25,2022,$0,9),
Adams (26,2021,1$), 52Spence (29,2021,$1.2), 92Thurman (26,futures), 97Murray (24,futures)

ED (7/4-5) - Judon (29,2024,$6.4), 50Winovich* (26,2022,$1.1), 55Uche* (23,2023,$1.2), 91Wise* (27,2024,$3.3), --Perkins (21,2024,),
96Bower (26,2021,$0,9), 43Berry (24,2021,$0.8),

LB (7/5-6) - 54Hightower (31,2021,$12.5/10), 53Van Noy (30,2022,$4.4), 51Bentley* (25,2021,$1), 58Jennings* (24,2023,$1),
--McGrone (21,2024,), McMillan (25,2021,$1.2), 59Hall* (24,2021,$0.8)

S (6-7/5-6) - 32D.McCourty* (34,2021,$11.2), 21Phillips* (29,2021,$3.5), 35Dugger* (25,2023,$1.9), 23Mills* (27,2024,4.6$), 41Bryant* (23,2022,$0.9), --Bledsoe (22,2024,)

CB (9-11/5-6) - 24Gilmore (31,2021,$16.3), 27JC.Jackson (25,2021,$3.4), 31J.Jones* (28,2022,$7.1), 33Williams* (23,2022,$1.8), 45M.Jackson (24,2021,$0.8)
38Virgin (27,2021,$0.9), 39Ross (24,futures)

ST - 7Bailey (24,2022,$0.9), 49Cardona (29,2022,$1.1), 6Folk (36, 2021, 1.6$), 9Aguayo (27,futures), --Nordin (23,UDFA)
18Slater (WR,36,2021,$3), 36King (LB,28,2021,$1.4), 29Bethel (SS,31,2023, $), 22Cody Davis (FS,32,2022, $), Reynolds (LB,30, )

 

[micronin127]

We aren't carrying enough CBs. Could maybe use another G, WR. Have surplus at IDL, K.
Not a lot of holes on the roster. Challenge now is teambuilding to see how it all comes together.
Depth is always tested by injuries, so maybe we need an extra LB because McGrone is hurt.
I don't see the value in projecting trades this early. See what we have first.

 

[long distance]

We aren't carrying enough CBs. Could maybe use another G, WR. Have surplus at IDL, K.
Not a lot of holes on the roster. Challenge now is teambuilding to see how it all comes together.
Depth is always tested by injuries, so maybe we need an extra LB because McGrone is hurt.
I don't see the value in projecting trades this early. See what we have first.

Im glad they stayed put with corner position at the top but am surprised they haven't add any corner at least for TC esp. with how much success they had with UDFA corners (not just Butler and JC but many others that are/were playing on other teams). CB was one of the rare deep classes and despite 37 corners drafted - a record number at least over last several years (with average around 30) - there were still decent options out there after Draft for peanuts: Trill Williams that they had contacts with, a flyer on Gilbert etc.

Bledsoe has some versatility and so do many of Pats DBs - but legit outside corner is getting thin esp. for the future. Letting Jason go would be my move as well, he was hanging on a thread before the season after struggles in pre-season and the bad season that followed reflected that. Keeping him in there as much as they did might be a slight mistake esp. the way the season went - they could give more playing time to Williams to have a better picture how he can compete and what is his best position in games. In limited opportunities lined up all over DB it didn't look most promising but there is decision to be made about the 3rd year second rounder.

There are still plenty solid corners available out there in FA and also a few Pats former UDFAs they lost (LeBlanc, Killings, Lewis) so id expect some addition from there.

I hope for Gilmore's extension to secure at least one starting outside corner spot for next year - like they did with OT.

 

[captain stone]

Im glad they stayed put with corner position at the top but am surprised they haven't add any corner at least for TC esp. with how much success they had with UDFA corners (not just Butler and JC but many others that are/were playing on other teams). CB was one of the rare deep classes and despite 37 corners drafted - a record number at least over last several years (with average around 30) - there were still decent options out there after Draft for peanuts: Trill Williams that they had contacts with, a flyer on Gilbert etc.

Jonathan Jones is another example...I agree with your take on the CB situation too...Surprised & disappointed at the Total inactivity for this position...

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Is j Jones really counting 7.1 million against the cap?

 

[long distance]

Is j Jones really counting 7.1 million against the cap?

Its 7.4M actually. There are some incentives that are considered LTBE. Nothing is guaranteed though..

 

[BobDigital]

If I were the Pats I would look to bolster the pass rush more. There is no WR we can sign at this point who will move the needle. Look into Melvin Ingram, Justin Houston or Oliver Vernon and see if we can land one. Also kick the ties on pass rushing DTs like Atkins or Short. If the Pats want a chance at a deep run the D needs to be able to wreck, get turnovers and help the offense score points.

I'm not sure who the 5th and 6th DB will be (but I'm confident they will be good and I like our depth). When it comes to the 6th or 7th front man... I don't love it. Godchaux is a good NT but really more of a first down/short down player. Guy is solid as a DT pass rusher but not amazing. The way our D tends to get pressure is going small and sending an extra guy while our DBs hold. I think they need to do better if they want to take the next step. Can we win with 4 if we have to right now? I don't think so. I'd like to get a guy who can make that possible AND THEN be able to add a 5th guy on top of it.

Judon is a beast. Winovich is okay, but only if he's the 4th guy. He's fine as your 2nd or 3rd best if you don't mind being an okay pass pushing line. But if you want to be great he is your 4th best. Our team only got 24 sacks last year. I know sacks aren't everything, but that number sucks.

They have a lack of good pass rushing depth, but the lack stars. They need another big one desperately if they want a deep run.

 

[Wax Frog]

@long distance - OT - Celeste? You're just spoiling us

 

[long distance]

@ PS QB

Two QBs i thought Pats would have some interest in after Draft - Brady White and KJ Costello (who had reported meeting w NE) - are trying out for Titans and Chargers today.

After releasing Dolegala i thought Pats would be interested to try out some of the UDFA QBs to have an option for QB on PS.
Roster spots will be valuable/expensive this season (draft capital/guaranteed $) so giving yourself an option to have 3rd (or even 4th QB) safe on practice squad would seam reasonable. If they want to keep Stidham as 3rd QB it will probably have to be on 53 roster..

 

[ralmat55]

I’d not be surprised to see Brian Hoyer resigned at some point. Before some go crazy, it would only be to QB the scout teams and be an emergency option who could be carried on the PS during the season. His experience could be useful in both capacities. Especially, with a rookie QB being either the starter or primary backup.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If I were the Pats I would look to bolster the pass rush more. There is no WR we can sign at this point who will move the needle. Look into Melvin Ingram, Justin Houston or Oliver Vernon and see if we can land one. Also kick the ties on pass rushing DTs like Atkins or Short. If the Pats want a chance at a deep run the D needs to be able to wreck, get turnovers and help the offense score points.

I'm not sure who the 5th and 6th DB will be (but I'm confident they will be good and I like our depth). When it comes to the 6th or 7th front man... I don't love it. Godchaux is a good NT but really more of a first down/short down player. Guy is solid as a DT pass rusher but not amazing. The way our D tends to get pressure is going small and sending an extra guy while our DBs hold. I think they need to do better if they want to take the next step. Can we win with 4 if we have to right now? I don't think so. I'd like to get a guy who can make that possible AND THEN be able to add a 5th guy on top of it.

Judon is a beast. Winovich is okay, but only if he's the 4th guy. He's fine as your 2nd or 3rd best if you don't mind being an okay pass pushing line. But if you want to be great he is your 4th best. Our team only got 24 sacks last year. I know sacks aren't everything, but that number sucks.

They have a lack of good pass rushing depth, but the lack stars. They need another big one desperately if they want a deep run.

I think that if used properly Houston could give us some quality pressure off the edge. Snaps have to be limited to third and medium to long only and capped at about 15-20 per game.

if the price is right, there is a deal to me made with us!

 

[captain stone]

I’d not be surprised to see Brian Hoyer resigned at some point. Before some go crazy, it would only be to QB the scout teams and be an emergency option who could be carried on the PS during the season. His experience could be useful in both capacities. Especially, with a rookie QB being either the starter or primary backup.

I suppose I could live with that, as long as Hoyer never, Ever gets even a sniff of the 53...Still don't know why Dolegala was released; in fact, not only should he NOT have been released, but Another QB should have been signed to bring the number in the room to 5.

 

[captain stone]

And another thing: We need to sign at least Three more OLmen before TC begins.

 

[long distance]

Will New England Patriots see results after spending $163 million in free agency?

Recent history suggests the Patriots will get a boost after finishing 7-9 in 2020, but the hard part will be sustaining success after splurging.

www.espn.com

Id like to touch on two false/hyperbolic narratives that are somehow persisting regarding Pats Cap.
One is Bill was on a spending spree and now lets see the results . the other is Pats are tight in cap space as a result.

We debunked both in this thread many times but since Reiss is trying to sell them again lets see the reality of situation.

Despite what most mediots and some posters would like you to believe the reality is Patriots are in solid cap situation which after 20y of following GM BB should hardly be a surprise. Patriots spend more because they had more and because they prefer to have cap space on the field than on paper. They also spend because it was the best market to spend in. Those (few) teams who are carrying over bigger chunks of cap are actually at a loss since their buck will be worth less in future free agent markets.

There is one interesting stat in the article re biggest spenders in FA. The biggest spenders over the last 5 years improved their record by 5 wins on average. In Pats case that would mean 12 wins this year which sounds doable if they stay reasonably healthy.

Most of those teams regressed the year after, some significantly so Reiss is asking if Pats big spending will see similar trajectory. What he fails to do is put some context to all those results and to Pats specific situation as well - bc in that case he would hardly have anything to sell.

*

So lets look at Pats Cap situation.

They have about 5M nominal cap space going into the season. This puts them on league average this season and also at their own average over last 20y. The thing that is always forgotten is that this is just a snapshot cap space as (most) teams always have cushion to create more.
Take into account that despite “spending spree“ Patriots are one of the very few teams that did not yet use extensions, simple administrative restructures or void years - which means they are in good shape and have lots of flexibility for any kind of opportunity that presents itself.
Despite all the guarantees Patriots are in the middle of the pack in 2022 Salary Cap and TOP 10 in 2023. So plenty opportunity to continue building the team further. The fact that they are starting cheap rookie QB in his first year only enhances good Cap prospects for NE.

Anyone who cares to see the bigger picture understands that this offseason was not “all-in“ but start of building a new team that has plenty of room to grow both on the field (plenty of young talent) and adding playmaking talent.

If anything, 2021 should only be seen as a start with even better prospects in 2022 and beyond..

-.-