BobDigital
Pro Bowl Player
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There has been a lot of talk about how Mahomes choked or how he played heroically against a D that gave him no chance. I'll be going by drive drive. Rewatching the whole game and telling you my thoughts.
Drive 1 @ KC 33 - The first 3 plays of were fine. First play, got it out fast with a clean pocket for 2. second play forced to throw it away. Third play forced to run for a 1st. The next play he held onto the ball and locked on to Hill/Kelce on the left when dump off on the right side was clearly wide open. Ran for 2 when he could have gotten more. Second played forced a ball into tight coverage to Hardman down the side line. He didn't have a ton of time to scan the field, but he locked on to that match up pre snap for some reason. 3rd down missed an open Hardman. Punt. Verdict: Mahomes did well to convert the first first down. The failure to get another first was on him.
Drive 2 @ KC 38 - Run by Hill for 5. Run by HEC for 5 First Down. What looks like a well designed and blocked QB run for 10. HEC run for 6. Offsides by D (free play). Mahomes misses. I don't blame him for taking a shot, but he had better options in the end zone. 2 guys were more open on this play. I think they were Hill an Hardman. This wasn't brought up by anyone that I saw. It was interesting Mahomes went to Pringle who was tightly covered for a jump ball though. First down. Next came an unblocked CB blitz. Mahomes was forced to throw it to Hardman fast. He was a bit off target but Hardman wasn't ready anyway and unlikely to catch a well laid out ball. Next play was a fake QB run and then a pitch to HEC which lost 2. Next pass was on a scrambled which he did well to avoid another CB blitz on. While his pass hit Hill in the face mask the defender blocked his vision while also getting a a hand on it to influence it. You can argue this pass a number of ways. Here is my take. The pass was on target and catchable. But it was also where the defender could influence the outcome, and he did. Both things are true. FG Verdict: The last pass withstanding, they were on the 31 almost solely due to their run blocking and runs. The Mahome's run for a first was a credit to his athleticism, but any number of mobile QBs could have done the same. That pass to Hill was an okay chance you take in that situation, but it wasn't like the defender wasn't there either. The decision on that free play was a bigger missed chance IMO. Mahomes can't take much credit for getting them in FG range IMO. So if you want to credit him with the 3 when his team got him in position it seems hypocritical blame a teammate for not making a hard play for 7.
Drive 3 @ KC 37 - Short pass knocked down by JPP. Good short quick pass to an open Kelce for 6. Mahomes under pressure missed a screen pass. The pressure here was invited and so it was no excuse. Hard to tell, but an on target and on time pass appeared to have a very good first down chance. Verdict: First pass was a good D play, 2nd was fine. The 3rd down pass was a miss on Mahomes.
Drive 4 @ KC 1 - A nice short pass to an open Hill for 14. Incomplete to Hardman on a designed play, probably for the best TBH. Run for 2. Drop by Kelce. Verdict: This drive was not on Mahomes.
Drive 5 @ KC 25 - Mahomes to an open Kelce for 13. Behind the line to Hardman for 4. Mahomes to Kelce for 12. This was an interesting play. Mahomes could have delivered this to Kelce without moving from the pocket. Instead he felt pressure ran into the defender and made the pass falling down. None of that extra time was needed and none of it change how wide open Kelce was. This is an example of Mahomes making an easy play harder on himself for no reason. Next play was very well blocked and he ran for 10 to a wide open area. 7 yard run. Pass to Kelce for 10. Pass behind the line to Hill for a loss of 1. Pass to Kelce for 5. Forced to throw it away due to Pressure. FG. Verdict: Mahomes did well to lead this drive. He got about as much as he could from what I can tell. A tough earned 3 where the D came up big in the red zone.
Kneel down to end half
Drive 6 @ KC 19 - 26 yard run. 8 yard pass to Kelce in a soft spot of the zone. Run for 10. Run for 2. Pass to Hardman behind the line who slipped trying to make a move for 1 yard, not that he would have gone far anyway IMO. This pass was out very fast, almost instantly. He had a guy fairly open after the first down marker on the other side of the field, but i think this was a designed play. Mahomes incomplete on 3rd and 7. I don't put this incomplete pass on him. But his contribution this drive was 2 short passes to open pass catchers. Verdict: Mahomes shouldn't be blamed for not getting the 3rd down conversion, but he didn't do anything most any other starters could do to put them in FG range. It was a good example of managing the game and letting it come to him. But it wasn't special either.
Drive 7 @ KC 26 - Run for 3. Sack. The sack wasn't instant, but it wasn't long developing either. He had 2.5 seconds to decide to get it out or throw it away. After that he was grabbed and tried to escape instead of throwing it away and got taken down. There were some dump offs he could have gone too, but instead he took his eyes off them, tried to escape and failed. I think this sack is on him. He may have only picked up a few yards on those dump offs, but better a 2 yard gain than a 6 yard loss. This was Mahomes trying to gamble and failing. Personally I don't like this kind of gamble on 2nd and manageable. It led to the next series of events. Mahomes forcing a deep pass to Hill which is then knocked away and intercepted. Interestingly, he had a dump off to the left to a WIDE OPEN HEC. I think he would have gotten 20 if he went there. I get he was under a bit of pressure, but that was a big miss. Verdict: Mahomes messed this drive up badly, refusing to go to dump offs and take what was there.
Drive 8 @ KC 25 - holding penalty for 5 and a first. A smart short pass to HEC for 5. A run for 7. False start so 1st and 15. Incomplete Kelce, well defended. No one to go to I saw. A good pass to Hill for 21. Watkins open in the soft spot in the middle for 12. He had Williams undeneath for a moment but hesitated looking for more, so incomplete. Kelce open for 17 slide diagonally down the middle. So first and 10 at the 12 with 14:43 left. Run for 1. Mahomes escapes right and buys time. Pass to Robinson, pass was just a bit too much off target. Hit the fingers of one outstretched hand. That incomplete pass is on Mahomes 100%. Was a tough play to make though. The 3rd down pass was interesting to say the least. I think I realized what Mahomes does on some passes. When he escapes to the sideline he passes it to a spot, and hopes his WRs are there, because they are told to get to spot X if I escape to X side and spot Y if I escape to Y side. This was how he was able to put this ball somewhere and make it almost complete even though he spun around and did a virtual no look pass (cause he had no time to read it). He is amazing at getting it to a certain spot even off platform, but if the D figures out where he is going, these passes become very dangerous. Those were both cools plays back to back, but neither was catch-able by the WR nearest them. KC is forced to use a TO here. Mahomes thought the clock wasn't set right, it was. Besides they were to the line with 8 seconds left and in formation. This IMO was just frustration. The last play was incomplete. Intended for Williams, he was forced to throw one up, but was lucky it wasn't picked it. In any case the defender affected the pass. It knocked it off course. This wasn't a drop from what I saw. I'm 90% sure it was a touched, and when a pass is altered when it's that close the human brain literally can't react fast enough to make an adjustment. The 3 passes all looked very impressive, and maybe the last one had a chance even with it being touched, the others didn't. Also on 2nd and 9, Kelce looked wide. Verdict: This was a good drive from Mahomes, but he he fell back on habits that worked in the past instead of scanning the field. He missed a possible TD to Kelce, but it was a good drive and good defense.
Driver 9 @ KC 8 - Pass to Kelce for 33 in a very soft zone. Sack -8 looking for a deep pass, can't blame him i guess. Incomplete deep but roughing the passer. Kelce for 12 on what I thought was one of his better throws from the pocket that night. Incomplete. Williams for 9 in a smart dump off. Hill 12, Hill 6, Both good throws, but a holding penalty brings the last one back. Incomplete and tipped, almost picked. Mahomes sacked and fumbles but recovers it. Just looking for a shot down field. Wide Open soft zone for Hill for 23 on a 3rd and 33. Then after escaping pressure he tosses one to for an easy PD by the D. Interesting side note. Right down the sideline he had Williams open for an easy TD. Verdict: It was desperation time so it's hard to be too critical, but he had a TD here and he should have seen it. Especailly considering it was right down the side line on the side he was on.
Drive 10 @ KC 42 - Incomplete, just missed low. Also, it was 95% off his hand a pick I'd say. But whatever. Good pass to Hill for 8. Smart dump off to HEC for 18. Good PD by the Bucs to force an incompletion, but a holding call on KC takes it away. Good pass to Kelce for 16. Mahomes throws the ball away. Dump off maybe 1 yard. Hits an open Robinson for a 4th down conversion. Nice pass to Hill for 4. Intercepted by White in the end zone on a pass intended for Kelce. It was a risky pass which made little sense at that point IMO. It wasn't a good choice. Verdict: The windows were often tight and Mahomes forced some in and eventually paid. At this point the game was already out of hand, but if you're trying to score, make a better choice.
Overall: 2 of 3's of KC's scoring drives where more about the run game than the pass. Mahomes routinely missed on targets. He missed a few fairly open TDs and went for plays that had worked in the past but were tightly covered and he missed or had the defender stop them. He didn't go to his dump off options enough. He was under pressure a lot, but also held on longer than he had to at times. I would argue with the more eye popping plays Mahomes made, they half didn't work and the half of them that did only worked part way. He needed his play makers to make an nearly equally amazing play on their end, and they didn't. The thing we need to keep in mind is both of those near miss plays that actually had a chance for a TDs (not the ones that didn't) were last chance downs. There were other plays before that one that he could have done differently and to avoid having to make such a hard play, and he choose to take shots on those early downs instead. Mahomes at times was greedy this game, and it made things a little harder than it had to be. It's fair to bring up Mahomes was under a ton of pressure, and no matter what he did today it wasn't possible for him to make enough plays for his offense to score in the 30s with any likihood, but he also left a lot of plays on the field and compound bad choices forced him to try to make the play of the year multiple times, and it didn't work out. The OL was an issue, but this was also a clear lack of game management ability. And he missed plays when they were there to be made, and there were a few HUGE ones. This was not a herioc performance where Mahomes was completely let down by his team, and it was only through their incomptence and his ability they managed even nine. This was a bad game all around, including Mahomes, who also almost made a couple great plays along the way that would have been very hard to convert and had 1 bad drop in a key spot.
Some better choices, better reads and better passes.... Mahomes could have scored in high teens low 20s in the first 3 quarters and maybe have had it in reach for the 4th. Maybe....
Drive 1 @ KC 33 - The first 3 plays of were fine. First play, got it out fast with a clean pocket for 2. second play forced to throw it away. Third play forced to run for a 1st. The next play he held onto the ball and locked on to Hill/Kelce on the left when dump off on the right side was clearly wide open. Ran for 2 when he could have gotten more. Second played forced a ball into tight coverage to Hardman down the side line. He didn't have a ton of time to scan the field, but he locked on to that match up pre snap for some reason. 3rd down missed an open Hardman. Punt. Verdict: Mahomes did well to convert the first first down. The failure to get another first was on him.
Drive 2 @ KC 38 - Run by Hill for 5. Run by HEC for 5 First Down. What looks like a well designed and blocked QB run for 10. HEC run for 6. Offsides by D (free play). Mahomes misses. I don't blame him for taking a shot, but he had better options in the end zone. 2 guys were more open on this play. I think they were Hill an Hardman. This wasn't brought up by anyone that I saw. It was interesting Mahomes went to Pringle who was tightly covered for a jump ball though. First down. Next came an unblocked CB blitz. Mahomes was forced to throw it to Hardman fast. He was a bit off target but Hardman wasn't ready anyway and unlikely to catch a well laid out ball. Next play was a fake QB run and then a pitch to HEC which lost 2. Next pass was on a scrambled which he did well to avoid another CB blitz on. While his pass hit Hill in the face mask the defender blocked his vision while also getting a a hand on it to influence it. You can argue this pass a number of ways. Here is my take. The pass was on target and catchable. But it was also where the defender could influence the outcome, and he did. Both things are true. FG Verdict: The last pass withstanding, they were on the 31 almost solely due to their run blocking and runs. The Mahome's run for a first was a credit to his athleticism, but any number of mobile QBs could have done the same. That pass to Hill was an okay chance you take in that situation, but it wasn't like the defender wasn't there either. The decision on that free play was a bigger missed chance IMO. Mahomes can't take much credit for getting them in FG range IMO. So if you want to credit him with the 3 when his team got him in position it seems hypocritical blame a teammate for not making a hard play for 7.
Drive 3 @ KC 37 - Short pass knocked down by JPP. Good short quick pass to an open Kelce for 6. Mahomes under pressure missed a screen pass. The pressure here was invited and so it was no excuse. Hard to tell, but an on target and on time pass appeared to have a very good first down chance. Verdict: First pass was a good D play, 2nd was fine. The 3rd down pass was a miss on Mahomes.
Drive 4 @ KC 1 - A nice short pass to an open Hill for 14. Incomplete to Hardman on a designed play, probably for the best TBH. Run for 2. Drop by Kelce. Verdict: This drive was not on Mahomes.
Drive 5 @ KC 25 - Mahomes to an open Kelce for 13. Behind the line to Hardman for 4. Mahomes to Kelce for 12. This was an interesting play. Mahomes could have delivered this to Kelce without moving from the pocket. Instead he felt pressure ran into the defender and made the pass falling down. None of that extra time was needed and none of it change how wide open Kelce was. This is an example of Mahomes making an easy play harder on himself for no reason. Next play was very well blocked and he ran for 10 to a wide open area. 7 yard run. Pass to Kelce for 10. Pass behind the line to Hill for a loss of 1. Pass to Kelce for 5. Forced to throw it away due to Pressure. FG. Verdict: Mahomes did well to lead this drive. He got about as much as he could from what I can tell. A tough earned 3 where the D came up big in the red zone.
Kneel down to end half
Drive 6 @ KC 19 - 26 yard run. 8 yard pass to Kelce in a soft spot of the zone. Run for 10. Run for 2. Pass to Hardman behind the line who slipped trying to make a move for 1 yard, not that he would have gone far anyway IMO. This pass was out very fast, almost instantly. He had a guy fairly open after the first down marker on the other side of the field, but i think this was a designed play. Mahomes incomplete on 3rd and 7. I don't put this incomplete pass on him. But his contribution this drive was 2 short passes to open pass catchers. Verdict: Mahomes shouldn't be blamed for not getting the 3rd down conversion, but he didn't do anything most any other starters could do to put them in FG range. It was a good example of managing the game and letting it come to him. But it wasn't special either.
Drive 7 @ KC 26 - Run for 3. Sack. The sack wasn't instant, but it wasn't long developing either. He had 2.5 seconds to decide to get it out or throw it away. After that he was grabbed and tried to escape instead of throwing it away and got taken down. There were some dump offs he could have gone too, but instead he took his eyes off them, tried to escape and failed. I think this sack is on him. He may have only picked up a few yards on those dump offs, but better a 2 yard gain than a 6 yard loss. This was Mahomes trying to gamble and failing. Personally I don't like this kind of gamble on 2nd and manageable. It led to the next series of events. Mahomes forcing a deep pass to Hill which is then knocked away and intercepted. Interestingly, he had a dump off to the left to a WIDE OPEN HEC. I think he would have gotten 20 if he went there. I get he was under a bit of pressure, but that was a big miss. Verdict: Mahomes messed this drive up badly, refusing to go to dump offs and take what was there.
Drive 8 @ KC 25 - holding penalty for 5 and a first. A smart short pass to HEC for 5. A run for 7. False start so 1st and 15. Incomplete Kelce, well defended. No one to go to I saw. A good pass to Hill for 21. Watkins open in the soft spot in the middle for 12. He had Williams undeneath for a moment but hesitated looking for more, so incomplete. Kelce open for 17 slide diagonally down the middle. So first and 10 at the 12 with 14:43 left. Run for 1. Mahomes escapes right and buys time. Pass to Robinson, pass was just a bit too much off target. Hit the fingers of one outstretched hand. That incomplete pass is on Mahomes 100%. Was a tough play to make though. The 3rd down pass was interesting to say the least. I think I realized what Mahomes does on some passes. When he escapes to the sideline he passes it to a spot, and hopes his WRs are there, because they are told to get to spot X if I escape to X side and spot Y if I escape to Y side. This was how he was able to put this ball somewhere and make it almost complete even though he spun around and did a virtual no look pass (cause he had no time to read it). He is amazing at getting it to a certain spot even off platform, but if the D figures out where he is going, these passes become very dangerous. Those were both cools plays back to back, but neither was catch-able by the WR nearest them. KC is forced to use a TO here. Mahomes thought the clock wasn't set right, it was. Besides they were to the line with 8 seconds left and in formation. This IMO was just frustration. The last play was incomplete. Intended for Williams, he was forced to throw one up, but was lucky it wasn't picked it. In any case the defender affected the pass. It knocked it off course. This wasn't a drop from what I saw. I'm 90% sure it was a touched, and when a pass is altered when it's that close the human brain literally can't react fast enough to make an adjustment. The 3 passes all looked very impressive, and maybe the last one had a chance even with it being touched, the others didn't. Also on 2nd and 9, Kelce looked wide. Verdict: This was a good drive from Mahomes, but he he fell back on habits that worked in the past instead of scanning the field. He missed a possible TD to Kelce, but it was a good drive and good defense.
Driver 9 @ KC 8 - Pass to Kelce for 33 in a very soft zone. Sack -8 looking for a deep pass, can't blame him i guess. Incomplete deep but roughing the passer. Kelce for 12 on what I thought was one of his better throws from the pocket that night. Incomplete. Williams for 9 in a smart dump off. Hill 12, Hill 6, Both good throws, but a holding penalty brings the last one back. Incomplete and tipped, almost picked. Mahomes sacked and fumbles but recovers it. Just looking for a shot down field. Wide Open soft zone for Hill for 23 on a 3rd and 33. Then after escaping pressure he tosses one to for an easy PD by the D. Interesting side note. Right down the sideline he had Williams open for an easy TD. Verdict: It was desperation time so it's hard to be too critical, but he had a TD here and he should have seen it. Especailly considering it was right down the side line on the side he was on.
Drive 10 @ KC 42 - Incomplete, just missed low. Also, it was 95% off his hand a pick I'd say. But whatever. Good pass to Hill for 8. Smart dump off to HEC for 18. Good PD by the Bucs to force an incompletion, but a holding call on KC takes it away. Good pass to Kelce for 16. Mahomes throws the ball away. Dump off maybe 1 yard. Hits an open Robinson for a 4th down conversion. Nice pass to Hill for 4. Intercepted by White in the end zone on a pass intended for Kelce. It was a risky pass which made little sense at that point IMO. It wasn't a good choice. Verdict: The windows were often tight and Mahomes forced some in and eventually paid. At this point the game was already out of hand, but if you're trying to score, make a better choice.
Overall: 2 of 3's of KC's scoring drives where more about the run game than the pass. Mahomes routinely missed on targets. He missed a few fairly open TDs and went for plays that had worked in the past but were tightly covered and he missed or had the defender stop them. He didn't go to his dump off options enough. He was under pressure a lot, but also held on longer than he had to at times. I would argue with the more eye popping plays Mahomes made, they half didn't work and the half of them that did only worked part way. He needed his play makers to make an nearly equally amazing play on their end, and they didn't. The thing we need to keep in mind is both of those near miss plays that actually had a chance for a TDs (not the ones that didn't) were last chance downs. There were other plays before that one that he could have done differently and to avoid having to make such a hard play, and he choose to take shots on those early downs instead. Mahomes at times was greedy this game, and it made things a little harder than it had to be. It's fair to bring up Mahomes was under a ton of pressure, and no matter what he did today it wasn't possible for him to make enough plays for his offense to score in the 30s with any likihood, but he also left a lot of plays on the field and compound bad choices forced him to try to make the play of the year multiple times, and it didn't work out. The OL was an issue, but this was also a clear lack of game management ability. And he missed plays when they were there to be made, and there were a few HUGE ones. This was not a herioc performance where Mahomes was completely let down by his team, and it was only through their incomptence and his ability they managed even nine. This was a bad game all around, including Mahomes, who also almost made a couple great plays along the way that would have been very hard to convert and had 1 bad drop in a key spot.
Some better choices, better reads and better passes.... Mahomes could have scored in high teens low 20s in the first 3 quarters and maybe have had it in reach for the 4th. Maybe....
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