Field Goal Attempts vs. Going For It on 4th Down in SBLII

[primetime]

Were you also surprised that they went for it on 4th and 5 from the thirty-five? To me, that seems like an easy decision for a field goal attempt. Similar to a bizarre fourth (and I think 11) in SB42, the team opted to go for it rather than attempting a 50+ yard field goal. I'm not sure why these decisions are different in the Super Bowl, but in the regular season I imagine they attempt the field goal. I realize they don't want to give the opponent a short field, but the best way to do that is to take your best odds of success (field goal, 75%) over converting a fourth down play which is fairly difficult and likely somewhere around 50%.

The interesting thing is that both were in practically identical situations, separated by the Eagles' 3-and-out after the missed FG. It was 9-3 in both cases, more than 10 minutes left in the second quarter. I agree, it's completely unclear to me why you'd kick it in the first instance and go for it in the other. You might make an argument that the second drive went for three plays and therefore they wanted to give the defense some time to catch its breath, but that's a little too five-dimensional chess for my liking and doesn't make a ton of sense in the 2nd quarter in any case.

A more likely scenario, though it involves some projection, is that McDaniels and Belichick were angry like all of us were that their little trick throw to Brady didn't work and wanted to erase that. Or that after Gostkowski missed that field goal, they were worried that he was in his head. Or some combination of both.

 

[mosi]

It was like they went against the correct probabilities because they didn't have faith in their offense (which was moving the ball at will.) And then the went against the correct probabilities the second time because they didn't have faith in their kicker.

But it is also the difference between a team with nothing to lose (the Eagles) and a team with a dynasty to lose (the Pats).

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

But it is also the difference between a team with nothing to lose (the Eagles) and a team with a dynasty to lose (the Pats).

Despite what that idiot Chris Collingsworth says, the Eagles weren't just playing "with nothing to lose" and throwing caution to the wind. They were taking calculated risks that were the right decisions. That fourth down decision (the Foles catch before halftime) was absolutely the correct call on 4th and goal from short distance. The 4th and 1 decision late in the fourth quarter was also the right call. These weren't just a bunch of crazy "we have to push the envelope to beat the Patriots" decisions. They did what they should have done, which is play the probabilities. Especially considering their advantage over the Patriots defense in virtually every type of situation.

The Patriots typically would do that, too, but apparently last night they went against their plan of using logic and percentages and went with the panic button philosophy.

 

[pheenix11]

He should have run to the sideline. He might be the fastest player in football. He didn't need to score a touchdown, he just needed two yards to get the first and he could have easily beat the defender to the stick if he just beelined for it. He gets greedy though, wants to end up in the end zone every time he touches the ball. It's why he ran backwards on the catch he got knocked out on. I'm a Cooks fan but that's a bad, bad habit and the Patriots paid for it twice last night.

I thought he had the first down easy if he ran for the sideline. I saw him turn and make that stupid leap and I was WTF are you doing??

 

[fightingirish595]

What I didn’t ubderstand was with 3 timeouts why they went for the homerun ball insteaD of trying to get 15-20 yards over the course of some plays

 

[captain stone]

As soon as I saw Cookie run (and fail miserably with) the sweep, I knew that it was an all-or-nothing play, meaning that if she didnt make it (and I knew she wouldn't) that they were going to kick. Now if Skippy had done the manly thing and give it to Bolden, then they would've very likely have gone for it on 4th down, with possibly a Brady sneak, because Bolden almost certainly would've brought the ball closer than Cookie ended up doing.

I understand that the Pats scored 33 points, which should've been enough to win, but they also left at least 11 points on the field in the first half, due almost entirely on very questionable short-yardage decision-making.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I was more angry that cooks tried to leap over a stationary defender when he had a head of steam going and just needed one cut to blow by him.

Agreed.

But can we talk about what the **** Brandon Bolden is doing in the backfield on that play? I guess he's supposed to be a big back threat, but absolutely nobody went for that, and the 2 or 3 defenders on the right side locked into Cooks on the jet sweep.

At least have a fake threat in the backfield with Lewis or White to give those defenders some pause.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

As soon as I saw Cookie run (and fail miserably with) the sweep, I knew that it was an all-or-nothing play, meaning that if she didnt make it (and I knew she wouldn't) that they were going to kick. Now if Skippy had done the manly thing and give it to Bolden, then they would've very likely have gone for it on 4th down, with possibly a Brady sneak, because Bolden almost certainly would've brought the ball closer than Cookie ended up doing.

I understand that the Pats scored 33 points, which should've been enough to win, but they also left at least 11 points on the field in the first half, due almost entirely on very questionable short-yardage decision-making.

I don’t know why on those early drives McDaniels insists on taking the GOAT out of the equation. It really doesn’t matter if the defense knows you are throwing they also know they can’t stop it. It was so obvious from the first snap that this was one of the most overmatched pass defenders that Brady has faced, probably the easiest of his playoff career. So on the first drive they are driving at will, throwing the ball at will, and Josh calls a few pointless runs when they get within the 10. Why? Philadelphia has the best run defense in the league. Next drive with the Cooks sweep exact same thing. Then the “trick play” to Brady which was unnecessary since you are already dominating that defense.

By the time Josh and Bill realized that this might as well be Techmo Bowl and he has Bo Jackson, the game was too far into the Eagles grasp. In the second half, they hand the keys to Brady and stop with all the ridiculous gadget plays and stuffing themselves in the red zone, but the damage was done.

Also I have a season long theory that the Patriots are a better red zone team without Cooks. The way Josh built red zone plays around Cooks all season was a total failure and incredibly stubborn.

 

[BlueThunder]

On the 4th and goal from the one for the Eagles.....An observation from USA today.... Talk about missing a call if true...


"Nick Foles’ touchdown reception probably should have gotten called back.

No, it wasn’t an offensive holding play, which is generally an unfair critique. There is holding on nearly every play.

On this play, the officials seemed to miss an illegal formation.

Foles motioned out of the backfield into a wing spot, just off the right tackle. He did not place himself on the line. That meant wide receiver Nelson Agholor needed to be on the line to cover up the tackle. But when the ball got snapped to Corey Clement, the Eagles had just six men on the line of scrimmage and no one outside of the right tackle. Clement then handed the ball to tight end Trey Burton, who threw the ball to Nick Foles for the touchdown."

 

[EddardSnow67]

I was more angry that cooks tried to leap over a stationary defender when he had a head of steam going and just needed one cut to blow by him.

That was a baffling decision on his part. He seemed completely confused in this game. On the play where he got taken out he had no idea where he was going.

 

[captain stone]

As soon as I saw Cookie run (and fail miserably with) the sweep, I knew that it was an all-or-nothing play, meaning that if she didnt make it (and I knew she wouldn't) that they were going to kick. Now if Skippy had done the manly thing and give it to Bolden, then they would've very likely have gone for it on 4th down, with possibly a Brady sneak, because Bolden almost certainly would've brought the ball closer than Cookie ended up doing.

I understand that the Pats scored 33 points, which should've been enough to win, but they also left at least 11 points on the field in the first half, due almost entirely on very questionable short-yardage decision-making.

I don’t know why on those early drives McDaniels insists on taking the GOAT out of the equation. It really doesn’t matter if the defense knows you are throwing they also know they can’t stop it. It was so obvious from the first snap that this was one of the most overmatched pass defenders that Brady has faced, probably the easiest of his playoff career. So on the first drive they are driving at will, throwing the ball at will, and Josh calls a few pointless runs when they get within the 10. Why? Philadelphia has the best run defense in the league. Next drive with the Cooks sweep exact same thing. Then the “trick play” to Brady which was unnecessary since you are already dominating that defense.

By the time Josh and Bill realized that this might as well be Techmo Bowl and he has Bo Jackson, the game was too far into the Eagles grasp. In the second half, they hand the keys to Brady and stop with all the ridiculous gadget plays and stuffing themselves in the red zone, but the damage was done.

Also I have a season long theory that the Patriots are a better red zone team without Cooks. The way Josh built red zone plays around Cooks all season was a total failure and incredibly stubborn.

And even after Cookie was given the lovers' hug at the end of the sweep, the ball is still placed barely one yard away from the line to gain, if not slightly less than that. Once again, Skippy has an early chance to establish an Attitude by converting the 4th down with off-Tackle power attacking their light DEs, and once again he fails, as usual.

Regarding the end of the Pats first drive, the first-down pass to White gained 4+ yards, but it was the 2nd-down run (again by White) which gained only one yard that was a killer. Instead of designing it so that White ran behind Develin, Skippy had Develin offset from Brady & White, so that when White was stuffed trying to run into one hole (C/LG, the weakest gap on the OL), Develin was running into the C/RG hole. Made no sense at all. And Dion Lewis was nowhere to be seen at the end of either of those first two drives. More game-costing coaching idiocy.

 

[Joey007]

I HATED the 4th and 1 call, even before the kick was shanked.

That was one call I definitely think did cost us the game.

 

[Pats2000]

I was more angry that cooks tried to leap over a stationary defender when he had a head of steam going and just needed one cut to blow by him.

Yeah I feel like Cooks was not making good mental decisions that day. He wasn't paying attention to his surroundings and trying to do too much maybe. Any word on him btw, I feel like that hit broke something in his face.

 

[archstanton543]

Yeah I feel like Cooks was not making good mental decisions that day. He wasn't paying attention to his surroundings and trying to do too much maybe. Any word on him btw, I feel like that hit broke something in his face.

You'll see the injury report like everyone else in 200+ days when the season is about to start.

And I think he's got a good chance of passing concussion protocol in that time.

 

[Pats2000]

You'll see the injury report like everyone else in 200+ days when the season is about to start.

And I think he's got a good chance of passing concussion protocol in that time.

meh, wasn't sure if there were some rumors out there about how bad he got messed up

 

[The Brandon Five]

On the 4th and goal from the one for the Eagles.....An observation from USA today.... Talk about missing a call if true...


"Nick Foles’ touchdown reception probably should have gotten called back.

No, it wasn’t an offensive holding play, which is generally an unfair critique. There is holding on nearly every play.

On this play, the officials seemed to miss an illegal formation.

Foles motioned out of the backfield into a wing spot, just off the right tackle. He did not place himself on the line. That meant wide receiver Nelson Agholor needed to be on the line to cover up the tackle. But when the ball got snapped to Corey Clement, the Eagles had just six men on the line of scrimmage and no one outside of the right tackle. Clement then handed the ball to tight end Trey Burton, who threw the ball to Nick Foles for the touchdown."

This is partly why I am at peace with the loss. There was no way the NFL was going to let the Pats win again. The rest of the country was beyond sick of them winning. A Pats win was potentially "bad for business". It wasn't personal, it was strictly business.

 

[ivanvamp]

"52 yards is a very make-able, fairly high percentage attempt."

Lol, wut? No it isn't.

Yes it is. In the playoffs this year, teams were 7-9 (77.8%) from 50+ yards out. In the regular season, they were 107-154 (69.4%).

 

[letekro]

This is partly why I am at peace with the loss. There was no way the NFL was going to let the Pats win again. The rest of the country was beyond sick of them winning. A Pats win was potentially "bad for business". It wasn't personal, it was strictly business.

You think there is some grand plan by which the NFL picks winners in accordance with who has the best storyline? Does that mean SB 36 is tainted? Also, are you saying that the rest of the country wasn't sick of the Patriots winning last year? I would be fascinated if you truly believed such a thing.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I think it had more to do with situation, the first one we were only down 6, so fg attempt is understandable. i think the next time we were down 12 and it was alot less make-able, so going for it was also understandable.

 

[The Brandon Five]

You think there is some grand plan by which the NFL picks winners in accordance with who has the best storyline? Does that mean SB 36 is tainted? Also, are you saying that the rest of the country wasn't sick of the Patriots winning last year? I would be fascinated if you truly believed such a thing.

No grand plan needed. 2-3 calls pretty much sealed the deal. Overturning either TD would not have been well-received. The 25-point comeback was a great story.