F***ing With Stats: Breaking Down Pats vs Jags

[Nikolai]

TL;DR
New England 24
Jacksonville 14

So, this is the second time I've done this. The first was SBLI. I wouldn't mind turning it into a regular thing if I could streamline the process.

Proof of concept:
While I accurately projected a victory, TFB's pick six was unexpected and really skewed the final score from what I had projected; my projected 37-17 swung instantly to 30-24 or 34-24, much closer to the actual. The Pats D did ultimately hold the Falcons to three scores.

Highlights:
Matt Ryan Projection: 288 yards, 2TD, 1INT | Actual: 284yds, 2TD, 0INT
Gabriel Projection: 3rec, 53 yards | Actual: 3, 76yds
Freeman Projection: 2rec, 34 yards | Actual: 2, 46yds
Falcons O Projection: 374 yards | Actual: 388 yards

Hogan Projection: 4rec, 84 yards | Actual: 4, 57yds
Bennett Projection: 4rec, 41 yards, 1TD | Actual: 5, 62yds
Patriots O Projection: 532 yards | Actual: 570yds

There were some lowlights as well, such as my projection of Blount running for over 100 yards. Whoops. You can read more about the methodology in that thread (here).

Updated Methodology
I've updated some of the methodology, this time accounting for the fact that our defense underwent a massive change starting in Week 7. Jacksonville's defense started something of a decline around the same time. I also adjusted how I project receiving stats, this time working off of completion percentages and yards per catch for the receivers than the straight yards/attempt model I used last time. I'm not sure it'll be better. We will see. Everything else is more or less the same, except I calculated total points based on yards/point allowed from the respective defenses; again, after Week 7.

I thought about doing a deeper dive into opponents similar to those we had faced, but the fact is that in both cases, New England and Jacksonville are going up against pass defenses that are far better than either have faced all year. The only other team in the NFL that is in the Pats or Jags league in terms of pass defense since Week 7 is the Minnesota Vikings. There really aren't too many good comps to get into.

I also tried to improve the workflow a bit. It was a grizzled mess last time, and I'm trying to streamline it so it's not so damned difficult to decipher and repeat in the future.

So, let's get to it. Before I looked into all this, I had in my head 27-7 or 27-6, but based on the numbers, these are the projections:

Projections

New England 24
Jacksonville 14
------------------------------------
NE Leaders

Brady
25/37, 66.2%, 304 yards, 2TD, 1INT

Lewis
13 carries, 59 yards | 2 rec, 16 yards

Gronkowski
5 rec, 79 yards, 1TD

TOTAL OFFENSE: 415 yards

------------------------------------
JAX Leaders

Bortles
19/32, 59.6%, 197 yards, 1TD, 1INT

Fournette
16 carries, 66 yards, 1TD | 3 rec, 21 yards

Cole
3 rec, 53 yards

TOTAL OFFENSE: 328 yards

 

[Nikolai]

Quick Points

1. The only thing consistent about Bortles is his inconsistency. The caliber of pass defense he runs up against doesn’t seem to faze him one way or the other. He’s given good and bad pass defenses easy days, and others a pretty tough day. There’s no real way to project how he will play and his projections are an average with the benefit of having 18 games of data. See 5 below.

2. The Pats run defense gives up a fairly high yards per attempt, but it’s not a big deal. Jacksonville’s running backs, particularly Fournette, Yeldon, and Ivory rush below their opponents usual yards per attempt stat in a majority of games. Grant is the exception, but is used much more sparingly, to generally greater effect.

3. Hogan and Burkhead make Brady’s 300-yard game possible. Without them in the lineup, the projection drops to 250 yards for Brady and also a tighter 21-14 game. Neither are projected to have huge days, but Burkhead is projected to score a rushing touchdown.

4. Only three times did Brady have a lower yards per attempt than the opponents average. Everyone could guess one was the second Miami game. The other two were Tampa Bay, by the slightest of margins, and against the Jets in the regular season finale. What was the commonality? Gronk was out for Tampa Bay and Miami, and had zero targets against the Jets. Getting Gronk involved is definitely one of the “keys to the game”.

5. Since Week 7, the Pats have given up 5.74 yards per pass attempt. The two best pass defenses Bortles has faced in this category are Baltimore at 6.01 and the LA Chargers at 6.02. He threw for 244 yards and 4 TDs against Baltimore and 273 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs against the Chargers. Draw your own conclusions…if you can.

6. Since Week 7, Jacksonville has given up 5.67 yards per pass attempt. The two best pass defenses Brady has faced in this category are those same Chargers and Atlanta at 6.20. Brady threw for 333 yards and 1 TD against the Chargers and had a workman-like 249 yards and 2 TDs against Atlanta.

 

[Kid~Brady]

Jesus this is good and the numbers and stats seem so likely for this game. Good job and good read bro! Thanks!

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Curious if your stats change when adjusting for red zone percentages. Patriots consistently prove to be an outlier in yards/point compared with total points allowed. This is just one reason why dvoa has poor correlation for the Patriots, for example.

 

[Kontradiction]

Nice breakdown. I've said since the Patriots have drawn them that I think they win by at least 10. They'll seal off the run and will get help with it due to Fournette being a bit gimpy. Against the pass, most of Jacksonville's production comes from the WRs. The Patriots have the corners to cover them. I think the Jags score anywhere from 13-17 points. What will flip the script is if Brady turns the ball over at all. If that happens, any prediction should go out the window since the Jags need help from the Patriots being sloppy with the ball to have a chance to win this game.

 

[Uptown]

Most insightful article I’ve read thus far regarding JAC’s success/failure vs different personnel groupings. There is a VERY STARK contrast in their success vs 11 personnel & all other personnel groupings (21, 12, 13, 22 etc). This is key.

Basically, most to all of the teams that either beat or had offensive success vs JAC used the lowest percentage of 11 personnel.

Sharp Football Analysis

 

[Nikolai]

Curious if your stats change when adjusting for red zone percentages. Patriots consistently prove to be an outlier in yards/point compared with total points allowed. This is just one reason why dvoa has poor correlation for the Patriots, for example.

Agreed. The way I accounted for this was to take the yards allowed since Week 7 and divide that by the points. Since Week 7, Pats opponents have had to gain approximately 23 yards per point, which is far better than even Jacksonville, who sits at approximately 17 yards per point.

 

[Nunchucks]

Jacksonville has feasted on terrible QBs all season long. And if you want to bring the Steelers up, the Steelers have played down to their opponents all season long.

It is really quite simple.

 

[Nikolai]

Nice breakdown. I've said since the Patriots have drawn them that I think they win by at least 10. They'll seal off the run and will get help with it due to Fournette being a bit gimpy. Against the pass, most of Jacksonville's production comes from the WRs. The Patriots have the corners to cover them. I think the Jags score anywhere from 13-17 points. What will flip the script is if Brady turns the ball over at all. If that happens, any prediction should go out the window since the Jags need help from the Patriots being sloppy with the ball to have a chance to win this game.

I've got Brady with an INT, which is what I think could make this game closer than it maybe should be, since my gut feeling told me 27-7 right from the jump. Take away Brady's INT, and my projection for the Pats jumps up to 30-31 points scored.

 

[Uptown]

Anybody know how Bortles fares against the blitz/pressure?

 

[Kontradiction]

Anybody know how Bortles fares against the blitz/pressure?

Not well. He was 2/7 against pressure last weekend.

 

[Vatahala]

How often have opponents used the hurry up offense against the Jags?

It seems like the Jags use much fewer defensive players and they could be affected by this.

 

[patriot1136]

Great stuff, love reading things like that. Very interesting.
In regards to Bortles, I give him credit overall. He is a solid QB and I don't want to knock him. But yes he is inconsistent and I wonder if the stage is too big for him at times. Fine with me. I hope we get in his head and rattle him and make him make mistakes. I feel like he is due for a big interception or something. I wonder how he will handle the pressure.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Jacksonville is the matchup I was the most scared about.
I think we need to really look at the San Francisco tape and see how Grap had such success against them.
Their secondary is vicious their d line is stacked and they are playing the disrespect card like crazy.
They will hit Brady early and often so it has to be very quick passes he won't get time to sit back and survey like he did against Tenn.
Passes to the backs passes to Admendola and would love to see Dorsett have his best game as a Patriot.
We need quick guys we aren't winning jump balls unless Britt is ready.
Josh will be tested to put on his best coaching performance.
We are not pounding it between the tackles this game we will lose.
This is where Josh shows how much of a genius people think he is.
We need to have a few draw them offsides take advantage of their reckless abandon mentality on defense jaw with them get them to push or maybe throw a punch here and there anything to keep drives going.
Obviously I don't have to tell you if Fournette gets going we are in a world of trouble.
This is the game Bortles needs to be perfect I would not blitz him this is when he runs and makes something happen using his athleticism I want to see if Bortles can throw accurate balls in mixed coverage mix man and zone sometimes on the same play.
Mccourty Chung and Harmon to meet are the most valuable players on d in the passing game this week.
We can not allow blown coverages or misteps or mishaps we need Blake to drive them down the field 3 yds 4 yds 8 yds he more than likely will make a errant throw or bad decision
Mix in a handful of blitzes on any play where they need more than 6 yards and we should be able to handle their O.
That would be the start of my strategy.

Thoughts?

 

[holyredeemer]

This is an awesome thing you’ve done, and you’ve got a pretty damn solid track record to back it up. Very cool, and thank you for sharing. I know I shouldn’t be, but I’m worried Brady’s hand is going to have some sort of negative impact on this game. I’m hopeful the impact will be very little, but this just seems like one of those things that no one talks about until you’re down 10 pts in the 4th qtr. Doing what you’ve done though is great. Thanks again and best of luck to us all that you got this one right Sir!

 

[Kid~Brady]

Jacksonville is the matchup I was the most scared about.
I think we need to really look at the San Francisco tape and see how Grap had such success against them.
Their secondary is vicious their d line is stacked and they are playing the disrespect card like crazy.
They will hit Brady early and often so it has to be very quick passes he won't get time to sit back and survey like he did against Tenn.
Passes to the backs passes to Admendola and would love to see Dorsett have his best game as a Patriot.
We need quick guys we aren't winning jump balls unless Britt is ready.
Josh will be tested to put on his best coaching performance.
We are not pounding it between the tackles this game we will lose.
This is where Josh shows how much of a genius people think he is.
We need to have a few draw them offsides take advantage of their reckless abandon mentality on defense jaw with them get them to push or maybe throw a punch here and there anything to keep drives going.
Obviously I don't have to tell you if Fournette gets going we are in a world of trouble.
This is the game Bortles needs to be perfect I would not blitz him this is when he runs and makes something happen using his athleticism I want to see if Bortles can throw accurate balls in mixed coverage mix man and zone sometimes on the same play.
Mccourty Chung and Harmon to meet are the most valuable players on d in the passing game this week.
We can not allow blown coverages or misteps or mishaps we need Blake to drive them down the field 3 yds 4 yds 8 yds he more than likely will make a errant throw or bad decision
Mix in a handful of blitzes on any play where they need more than 6 yards and we should be able to handle their O.
That would be the start of my strategy.

Thoughts?

Short, quick and methodical passes and long drives. Dink and dunk and attempt the long ball ONLY if its there, don't force anything. Negate the pass rush with bubble screens and RB routes from the backfield, getting rid of the ball as fast as possible.

Jimmy did it well.... wonder where he learned that from?

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

I think the jags will cover the number. Our defense will have to keep them under 21.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Jacksonville is the matchup I was the most scared about.
I think we need to really look at the San Francisco tape and see how Grap had such success against them.
Their secondary is vicious their d line is stacked and they are playing the disrespect card like crazy.
They will hit Brady early and often so it has to be very quick passes he won't get time to sit back and survey like he did against Tenn.
Passes to the backs passes to Admendola and would love to see Dorsett have his best game as a Patriot.
We need quick guys we aren't winning jump balls unless Britt is ready.
Josh will be tested to put on his best coaching performance.
We are not pounding it between the tackles this game we will lose.
This is where Josh shows how much of a genius people think he is.
We need to have a few draw them offsides take advantage of their reckless abandon mentality on defense jaw with them get them to push or maybe throw a punch here and there anything to keep drives going.
Obviously I don't have to tell you if Fournette gets going we are in a world of trouble.
This is the game Bortles needs to be perfect I would not blitz him this is when he runs and makes something happen using his athleticism I want to see if Bortles can throw accurate balls in mixed coverage mix man and zone sometimes on the same play.
Mccourty Chung and Harmon to meet are the most valuable players on d in the passing game this week.
We can not allow blown coverages or misteps or mishaps we need Blake to drive them down the field 3 yds 4 yds 8 yds he more than likely will make a errant throw or bad decision
Mix in a handful of blitzes on any play where they need more than 6 yards and we should be able to handle their O.
That would be the start of my strategy.

Thoughts?

The disrespect card's getting annoying. I am sure the pats respect them 100 percent. They where not gonna be the favorites in the game. I do expect a tough game though. Our defense has to play very well.

 

[Nikolai]

The disrespect card's getting annoying. I am sure the pats respect them 100 percent. They where not gonna be the favorites in the game. I do expect a tough game though. Our defense has to play very well.

I think the disrespect card is coming out because they think it worked against Pittsburgh, ignoring that Tomlin's inept coaching had far more to do with that result. No one respects the opponents more than the Pats. It's what I perceive to be a bedrock of BB's preparation; assume the other team will execute their scheme flawlessly and plan around that.

 

[Tony2046]

Best thread since the Sham wow.

Very cool. Thanks