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Dec 6th

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IllegalContact

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I recall a bunch of insiders selling right after one of their early vaccine announcements. Suggested a lack of faith in the efficacy of the vaccine, now an apparently incorrect interpretation of that.

or just profit-taking
 

betterthanthealternative

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Can't remember now. I think it was high level people though.
Executives and Board sell their stock during predetermined, small windows of time. These are scheduled at the beginning of each year. They can't be timed with research results, which have no schedule.
 

betterthanthealternative

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@IllegalContact your 5K collection has done pretty well in the past couple of months, particularly STM and ADI. You follow that sector. It doesn't appear to cycle, which makes sense. Think its burned its gas, or is there more significant upside?
 

KontradictioN

Probably the nicest guy on the forum
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TSLA outperformed the market yesterday but I’m feeling a dip today due to the Consumer Reports published about the Model S.
 

IllegalContact

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@IllegalContact your 5K collection has done pretty well in the past couple of months, particularly STM and ADI. You follow that sector. It doesn't appear to cycle, which makes sense. Think its burned its gas, or is there more significant upside?

there's certainly to be more growth in the 5G related products.....we're just getting started......WiFi6 is part of the equation, also.....there's not too much out there that's actually using 5G right now....the power amplifiers fort the sector are just going to production on a large scale

also.......these guys aren't just working on 5G........it won't end at 5G.......mmWave and 6G is up next!...we will get to the point where in home service and mobile service will be redundant


That's actually the beauty of the sector.........it's not an easy ting to get into.....you have to justify the overhead of the equipment to take this stuff to production.........many of these companies do their own production of RF stuff so there is much less capacity at subcons, leaving startups in a poor position to get things to production......what was once a niche thing with lousy margins has gone big time........but it cost big $$ to get in the game
 
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KontradictioN

Probably the nicest guy on the forum
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there's certainly to be more growth in the 5G related products.....we're just getting started......WiFi6 is part of the equation, also.....there's not too much out there that's actually using 5G right now....the power amplifiers fort the sector are just going to production on a large scale

also.......these guys aren't just working on 5G........it won't end at 5G.......mmWave and 6G is up next!...we will get to the point where in home service and mobile service will be redundant


That's actually the beauty of the sector.........it's not an easy ting to get into.....you have to justify the overhead of the equipment to take this stuff to production.........many of these companies do their own production of RF stuff so there is much less capacity at subcons, leaving startups in a poor position to get things to production......what was once a niche thing with lousy margins has gone big time........but it cost big $$ to get in the game
Are you bullish on TMUS? AVGO looks like a no-brainer to wait on and then go in heavy but I love what T-Mobile is doing through the Sprint merger and their TV package. They’ve been innovative. But AVGO is outperforming them YTD.
 

betterthanthealternative

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Are you bullish on TMUS? AVGO looks like a no-brainer to wait on and then go in heavy but I love what T-Mobile is doing through the Sprint merger and their TV package. They’ve been innovative. But AVGO is outperforming them YTD
I spent a day this week looking into this, in the context of a refresh of investment strategy for the new year, and a Spring post COVID market.

I'm less interested in the retail customer part of this market than the hardware and infrastructure part. The retail part feels like a wild wild west, and I'm too old to play those bets. Plus my son buys phone lines in bulk from all three major players and his stories of their incompetence are terrifying (that shouldn't be a factor but I can't get past it.).

That points to companies making 5G related hardware and software, and infrastructure (towers, satellites, etc.). That's affirmed by what @IllegalContact said about the difficulty to entry.

What's below is a first pass at researching that market. I don't want to have to get it right on individual stocks as much as the sector, so most of the focus will be on EFT's.

5G related EFT’s
  • FIVG (global telecom blend)
  • SNSR (global tech blend, multi-cap, telecom heavy)
  • NXTG (global large cap telecom blend)
  • SMH (large cap semiconductors)
5G Stocks
  • American Tower AMT
  • Crown Castle CCI
  • Analog Devices ADI (in already)
  • Skyworks SWKS (in already)
  • ST Micro STM (in already)
  • Ericsson ERIC
  • Qualcomm QCOM
 

KontradictioN

Probably the nicest guy on the forum
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2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
I spent a day this week looking into this, in the context of a refresh of investment strategy for the new year, and a Spring post COVID market.

I'm less interested in the retail customer part of this market than the hardware and infrastructure part. The retail part feels like a wild wild west, and I'm too old to play those bets. Plus my son buys phone lines in bulk from all three major players and his stories of their incompetence are terrifying (that shouldn't be a factor but I can't get past it.).

That points to companies making 5G related hardware and software, and infrastructure (towers, satellites, etc.). That's affirmed by what @IllegalContact said about the difficulty to entry.

What's below is a first pass at researching that market. I don't want to have to get it right on individual stocks as much as the sector, so most of the focus will be on EFT's.

5G related EFT’s
  • FIVG (global telecom blend)
  • SNSR (global tech blend, multi-cap, telecom heavy)
  • NXTG (global large cap telecom blend)
  • SMH (large cap semiconductors)
5G Stocks
  • American Tower AMT
  • Crown Castle CCI
  • Analog Devices ADI (in already)
  • Skyworks SWKS (in already)
  • ST Micro STM (in already)
  • Ericsson ERIC
  • Qualcomm QCOM
Why not go in on Qualcomm if you’re already in on Akyworks, ST Micro, and Analog Devices ADI? Just wondering. Qualcomm seems to be the safer bet, but I’m guessing you’ve researched something I haven’t. Or is it just a matter of diversification?
 

betterthanthealternative

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Why not go in on Qualcomm if you’re already in on Akyworks, ST Micro, and Analog Devices ADI? Just wondering. Qualcomm seems to be the safer bet, but I’m guessing you’ve researched something I haven’t. Or is it just a matter of diversification?

Short answer - I don't know yet. The issue is as much about the verbs - "trade" vs. "invest" - as it is about the companies to back.

Longer answer: there are two voices in my head trying to work this out. One says, "You can beat the market average in this sector if you invest the time and attention." That voice would have me trade individual stocks. The other voice says, "You've identified the sector as a good one; declare victory and get back to your day job, jackass." That voice would have me invest in EFT's, stop worrying about it in the short term, and narrow the upside and the downside a bit.
 

IllegalContact

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Are you bullish on TMUS? AVGO looks like a no-brainer to wait on and then go in heavy but I love what T-Mobile is doing through the Sprint merger and their TV package. They’ve been innovative. But AVGO is outperforming them YTD.
TMUS up against T and VZ is a tough sell........T has better fundamentals and it has a 7% dividend. The only way to make inroads on market share is not organic or it's giving stuff away

AVGO is just hardware (I think) ... it's right in there with QCOM SWKS ST BRCM ...... it's a sound hold
 

IllegalContact

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Short answer - I don't know yet. The issue is as much about the verbs - "trade" vs. "invest" - as it is about the companies to back.

Longer answer: there are two voices in my head trying to work this out. One says, "You can beat the market average in this sector if you invest the time and attention." That voice would have me trade individual stocks. The other voice says, "You've identified the sector as a good one; declare victory and get back to your day job, jackass." That voice would have me invest in EFT's, stop worrying about it in the short term, and narrow the upside and the downside a bit.

the older I get, the more I'm in with FBGRX ..... takes the effort out of it
 

Jlaff

Early Bird Specials
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2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Short answer - I don't know yet. The issue is as much about the verbs - "trade" vs. "invest" - as it is about the companies to back.

Longer answer: there are two voices in my head trying to work this out. One says, "You can beat the market average in this sector if you invest the time and attention." That voice would have me trade individual stocks. The other voice says, "You've identified the sector as a good one; declare victory and get back to your day job, jackass." That voice would have me invest in EFT's, stop worrying about it in the short term, and narrow the upside and the downside a bit.
I have the same problem. As my attention to my job increases, my trading profits decrease. I basically haven't made any moves for two months despite identifying a couple I was interested in (like Palantir at $9).
 

TBR

Pro Bowl Player
Doing really well in my first 2 months. No options, day trades or swing trades yet. Nor have I pulled profits. EV and renewable energy stocks have done me huge favors. Also starting to see an OTC stock I invested in taking off (hopefully not a pump & dump).
 

TBR

Pro Bowl Player
$RIOT and $MARA are interesting with BTC going up. I got in on MARA at $3.14.

$FCEL and $CRSR were strong considerations of mine last week and I didn't pull the trigger. Now they've almost doubled.
 

woolster22

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2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Tmobile should clean up with their 5g roll out. Theyve already bailed out rural areas with 5g ISP services after att axed dsl offerings. Not only will they be hammering att/vzw on wireless 5g coverage, they'll be decimating their sister ISP offerings. They won't even need to eat into subscriber base to torpedo ISP profits. Margins get crushed when there's actually competition. Att/vz/comcast got fat by pulling one over on the FCC much like opiate producers scammed the country convincing the FDA you can't be addicted with a doc Rx.
 

KontradictioN

Probably the nicest guy on the forum
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2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Tmobile should clean up with their 5g roll out. Theyve already bailed out rural areas with 5g ISP services after att axed dsl offerings. Not only will they be hammering att/vzw on wireless 5g coverage, they'll be decimating their sister ISP offerings. They won't even need to eat into subscriber base to torpedo ISP profits. Margins get crushed when there's actually competition. Att/vz/comcast got fat by pulling one over on the FCC much like opiate producers scammed the country convincing the FDA you can't be addicted with a doc Rx.
That’s my first thought as well, and why I asked @IllegalContact his opinion on them, given his familiarity with that sector. I’m going to research it a bit more and wait a little while but I’m leaning toward pulling the trigger. I think they’re going to fatten up like a pig.
 

woolster22

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2019 Weekly Picks Winner
That’s my first thought as well, and why I asked @IllegalContact his opinion on them, given his familiarity with that sector. I’m going to research it a bit more and wait a little while but I’m leaning toward pulling the trigger. I think they’re going to fatten up like a pig.
They're smoking ATT and VZW so badly in the mid-band spectrum they're going all bill polian to the FCC. The Gov't did their best to **** them, hard not to route for a company like that. First they block tmo from selling. Tmo launches "uncarrier" and disrupts the heavy weights while investing heavily in coverage. They gambled on radios that could be upgraded to 5g capable remotely, and this enables the rapid roll-out. The capability existed years ago, all thats left (gross oversimplification but you get the gist) is pushing code to turn em on.

Will mid/long band bring the blistering latency and speeds of mm wave? No. But those frequencies wont require 3 radios per phone in case a hand is placed such that one or two get blocked. Mm has garbage penetration and coverage, basically literally equating to line of sight of a mm wave radio. Mid and long bands have been used for 3/4g deployments for years.

Its akin to the AMD/Intel flip thats playing out right now. Similar to Intel, VZ/ATT are victims of their own misguided hubris, which makes it much more fun. When the FCC goes to bat for a cable provider in negotiations with content providers, you know they're ****ed (att/cbs). The funny part is they think its a smart move to intentionally torpedo directv/directvNow.

It isn't just 5g that will kill the federally protected monopolies, Musk and starlink are right around the corner. Recent discoveries w/ specific light frequencies suggest massive advancements in communication tech are about disrupt the entire industry (specific frequencies pass through physical bodies as if they weren't there. Ie, hits a point on your finger, gets disseminated to all points of your skin instantly. Global instant comms/info transfer is the potential end product).

Your neighborhood hs tech geek turned alcoholic chef turned sober full-stack dev. Also, chainlink. Thank me later.
 

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