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Daily Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread 4/7

Discussion in 'The PatsFans.com Pub' started by Ian, Apr 7, 2020.

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  1. maust1013

    maust1013 Just Another Guy PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    I don't. I can't speak for anyone else but I don't consider him a Republican either. From where I sit he's an opportunist.
     
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  2. captain insano

    captain insano Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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  3. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady AB Forever PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Trump is moderate on the spectrum. He pulls the far right wingers to the center.

    The one thing that is really far right is the climate change denial, which is beyond deplorable.

    He has so much baggage and ethics issues, though, it’s ridiculous. And major problems with choosing the right people.

    And dealing with people.

    I didn’t mind him as much as most people with the caveat that I thought he would suck under a crisis situation.

    I was right.

    All that said, we have over 300 million people in the US, and the two “best” choices to lead us are Trump (see above) and Biden, a reanimated corpse.
     
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  4. Tony2046

    Tony2046 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    Haven't heard anything like that from my ex or kids. But that's definitely concerning.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
  5. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I haven't done any real "predicting" on these threads. All I've done is noted the trend since the week we went from ~60 to ~300.

    However, as you say, this was while the NYC case was maturing. Cuomo thinks NYC is legitimately on a plateau or will be the beneficiary of a sharp downturn in deaths (i.e., an upside-down "u" or an upside-down "v".)

    So, you might very well be right, and you will certainly be right at some point. It really depends when you will be right, is the only way to put it.

    No argument here. I am all for these much more nuanced analyses. They will sooner or later be the only way to understand the numbers that come in... though right now, my simplistic whole-country count, focusing on deaths, has been fine. (The longer it's fine, the worse for the eventual total, so far. I.e., there might be a point where other factors overwhelm the fact that NY and NJ had the highest density and more earlier cases, pre-distancing. If we end up with worse outcomes than NY/NJ, it will be in places that really did court worse outcomes.)

    Unfortunately, while there are any cases, even the best places, Wash + Cali, could turn exponential if they let down their guard for even a day... something they seem to be remembering, and that the rest of us need to get our heads around.

    This is where the spread becomes the vital thing to watch, rather than the deaths. I'm Mr. lagging indicator, and I am not shy about it. I started this with an awareness that people were going to argue forever about the "real" fatality rate, because the "real" number of infections is in doubt until we have universal testing or close enough to it where we really roughly know the prevalence.

    My thought was that 1 thing we can tell are how many people are dying. So I'll let everybody else fight about these more sophisticated thoughts. I tend to agree, but feel much more comfortable counting and saying "If nothing changes, then this is the outcome."

    Soon, God willing, this very raw count, remember, report function will become less important than analyzing what brought down the deaths.

    My goal was to establish what was happening, pretty much in real time, from a time when everybody and his brother on the right wing was shouting from the rooftops how insignificant this health issue was, because at the time, 300, or 1500, or 7500 were such low numbers.

    7500 is still few "compared with" other things that should not kill so many people. These other things also should not kill so many people. Preventing death is a good idea, despite the newly trendy proclamations of rightist ghouls who now chant that gramma and grampa aren't "productive" anyway. I like not killing them because they are human beings, personally.

    Those who say they are old enough and should die now, need to first convince the states to amend their murder statutes, and then come back and convince the rest of us.

    Yep, the question then is plateau or peak. Getting to the "peak" is the first "hopeful moment." Services are overwhelmed there. Stuff is being used the wrong way, by design, e.g., hanging 2 people off 1 vent, etc. But if we see it flatten, fantastic news.

    There's one more question to note regarding the "last defense" of the infected, when the vent is breathing for you.

    There's a question that comes up vis a vis that period of time -- how long does it last, on average? At a certain speed of either recovery or death, then the same number of vents, more or less, handles a case load on a plateau.

    If it's slower, there will still be a steady supply of patients getting sick enough to need the hardware, with insufficient patients leaving the existing ventilators.

    When zero are available - or zero sets of functioning tubes, to be more precise - the death rate could spike, despite no change, or change in the right direction, in the number of infections.

    Similar challenges could pop up in various guises elsewhere, related to the availability of resources where and when the resources are needed.

    But you know me, I am a simple defrosted caveman epidemiologist. Count and report, count and report, count and report.
     
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  6. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Did you see the comment I was replying to?
     
  7. Mike the Brit

    Mike the Brit Minuteman Target PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I didn't get details, but it was definitely several people. One guy said that perhaps it was because people from Asian backgrounds were more likely to be wearing masks at a time when other people weren't. Who knows? Idiots!
     
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  8. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Put another way, if we do 1 million a day, we could test all Americans once by next March. Of course, there are some people who will not ever need a test, even in a broad testing regime. There will be people who need 3, 4, 5 or more tests between now and when we get a vaccine.

    This babble drumbeat of "We supplied X million gloves, y million masks..." etc., sounds impressive until it's compared to something & put into some kind of context . I mean, I can say Americans took a billion leaks today and you'd think we're all awash in urine. It's probably true (the number I mean) but it means nothing in a vacuum.
     
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  9. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady AB Forever PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The virus has seemingly run half its course in Italy, Spain, France, etc. I think the US will be very different in looking at the numbers. Whereas in those places it has been fairly consistent, we are probably looking at 10+ major metro areas here, which will all be somewhere different on that Question 1-3 timeframe and all have their own plateau number. Just my opinion.
     
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  10. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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  11. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yeah I agree with that. We're waiting for the next batch to have their turn.

    And because (YAY!!!!!) we have different laws, instituted at different times, in every state, we'll have different outcomes everywhere.
     
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  12. Tony2046

    Tony2046 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    My ex did say people initially stared at her awkwardly and noticeably avoided her but no comments. But nowadays pretty much everyone is used to seeing people wear masks.

    But that BS your friends experienced is screwed up.
     
  13. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm not an easy sell, but from what's in the NY Post aricle, it looks promising. I like the idea of clinical trials.

    Given what I've been seeing day to day, my cardio wants me to stop reading hopeful headlines because of all the salt it's added to my diet, a grain at a time... :D

    But you gotta figure, if they're announcing clinical trials, I mean, it's a refreshing change from the medicine show we've been seeing. I hope we don't find out it's just another version.
     
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  14. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    My Wife and Children are all Korean, No problems at all but we don't live in a progressive area, seems to help.
     
  15. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss 28-3.... PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Would be a great spot for it
     
  16. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    OS you think I lie about ny wife and kids. What a pathetic POS you are.
     
  17. Tony2046

    Tony2046 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    My Ex and two kids are all Taiwanese. No real problems but they live in a progressive area.
     
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  18. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss 28-3.... PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Surprised here in MA we aren't getting hit harder given location to NY and ties there. But the 96 new deaths is IIRC double than our worst previous day or around there...deaths starting to catch up now.

    BUT that means people took is seriously to start which is awesome. Went to the store tonight and i'd say 50% or more had masks on. People are listening on that front as well compared to last week.

    But they did say our hospital/death peaks won't be until April 10th to the 20th so we will see. Hoping for the best
     
  19. JarOfMayo51

    JarOfMayo51 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    that guy is such a creeper
     
  20. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Bloomberg left office in 2013, appears DeBlasio needed the money for social justice of some such.
     
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