I don’t think that will happen. At Italy it stopped at <1000 per day and has been very slowly weaning down since leveling out. But other US places outside of NYC are still growing exponentially. I think the best way to view it is to isolate each area. 1. Is the area going to grow exponentially? (Appears it will in New Jersey, Michigan, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, and probably many other areas.) Places that were quick to distance might have prevented this critical stage. 2. Has it reached the point where the exponential growth has ceased? I believe it has in NYC but nowhere else in the US. 3. What will happen in places where exponential growth has stopped? Based on Italy, I expect NYC to continue to hover at the 600-800 range for several weeks and finally start to shrink at about a month. So, that would mean roughly 18,000-24,000 deaths from this point, and then there’s the unknown for how long it takes to get to zero.