None of us really know but I'm personally under the impression that the hand shake deal is "here is our first round pick, if you can get something done financially with Butler we can trade him to you. If not, keep the pick and we will keep Butler under the tender"
I think he is coming back, no way the Saints have anywhere close to the money left that they seem to be asking for. Would have happened already IMO if that was the case.
It's true that the Saints only have about $6.5M in cap space. It's difficult to see how a contract for Butler would be structured around keeping his 2017 cap hit absurdly low while still giving him enough guaranteed money to be acceptable.
However, there may be other teams out there in need of a high-end CB who have the cap space and draft picks to get something done. Just because the only team the media is talking about is the Saints doesn't mean that other contenders don't exist.