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Content Post another late night rant

2021 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: at Bills
Pick Results: NE: 83.3% at BUF: 16.7%

Mon
Dec 6th

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:
This has an opening post with good commentary and information, which we definitely recommend reading.

1960Pats

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Great coaches find great players, a consistent theme in all sports.
With a cap there's a limit on how many great players a team can carry. That's why I like Bill's method of spreading the wealth around and having a deeper roster. I just don't agree with losing the greatest QB ever.
 

1960Pats

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I know that you’re not denigrating Brady. My issue is the reasoning around this hypothetical stuff. Your take is better than most of them, but I still strongly disagree with the thought process.

Brady went to Michigan, and after moving up the depth chart by his junior year, suddenly freshman Drew Henson, the #1 QB prospect in the country, became the 1A starter breathing down Brady’s neck; boosters pressured Carr to play Henson. Brady platooned both seasons despite being much better than Henson. That was cited as a major reason Brady dropped in the draft.

It would be easy to play the what-if game right here. If Henson chooses any other school, Brady is a much higher rated prospect.

But it doesn’t stop there. He gets drafted into the NFL in the late rounds, mainly due to the unlucky Henson situation, to a team that already has three quarterbacks, including a consensus top-5 franchise icon, and should he get a chance, he’s going to have to lead an offense with no pro bowl talent. The team was 5-13 and averaged 17 ppg in the games he was on the sidelines as a backup.

This is why the what-if game with Brady is absurd. He was dealt such a bad hand as it was, and he came out of it as the winner. So shifting to “What if he was drafted by the Colts or Eagles or Browns” seems to greatly miss the point. He was already in one of the most against-all-odds scenarios possible.

Between Henson sinking his draft value and then being drafted into what amounts to a worst case scenario due to the Patriots QB situation, the idea of theoretically raising the bar even higher seems like a bizarre idea.

Brady was going to make it. He wasn’t lucky. Inches didn’t decide this. It was going to happen. The only questions were when, where and how. We know this is hindsight, and that’s fine. Brady is one of the biggest outliers in sports history. His determination, confidence, and relentlessness is almost impossible to describe. He was always going to be great.
Brady was also prophetic when he told Kraft that drafting him was the best decision the team ever made. Brady knew even if nobody else did.
Now, sadly, letting Brady go was the worst decision the team ever made.
 

venecol

The FRG has a little ****
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2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Btady went to a stacked team, and added AB, and Leonard Fournette. If BB went to coach the Chiefs and brought Chase Young and Gilmore, he would probably win a Super Bowl.
I don't get these scenarios at all. Who has it easier?

1. A coach that stays in the same building, in the system he created, with the coaches he trained, and the players he picked; that has total control over every decision that affects the team since he is also the GM.

Said HC/GM put on the field the best team he felt that could be competitive because he's the GOAT coach and knows how to coach up average players. He's apparently also a QB whisperer so he selected the best available QB, a former MVP, to lead his team to victory. Result: 7 - 9 (from 12-4). Missed playoffs for 1st time since 2008.

Or

2. A QB that after spending 20 years in one system, uproots his family, moves them to another state; has to learn a new system, new playbook, new coaches, play with new players, and has little control over every decision that affects the team. He's unable to develop the relationships, timing, and chemistry with his receivers, RBs and OL because a 100 yr pandemic screws up the offseason and season training. Result: 11 - 5 (from 7-9)

Even despite all of the challenges QB faces; he manages to lead his new team, one that hasn't seen a playoff in 18 years, to the promised land by beating the Div. Champion that had beat them down twice during the season, the HFA MVP led best NFC team, and the SB reining champions. Everyone had them as underdogs against all three of those teams.

What Brady did last year had never been done before. Even his haters marvel at his accomplishments, except for Pats fans that claim "even I could've led that stacked team to a SB." Hahahahaha
 

50-yard-line

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
I know that you’re not denigrating Brady. My issue is the reasoning around this hypothetical stuff. Your take is better than most of them, but I still strongly disagree with the thought process.
Mine is based on real-world experience, a general philosophy about opportunity and the little things that make a huge difference, and the history of success in an environment like the NFL. As for my take others, I find the whole Brady v Belichick argument truly dumb and a prime example of the corrosive nature of social media and talk radio. If any fans on the planet have ZERO reason to complain, it's the fans of the Patriots.

What we just saw won't be repeated.

Brady went to Michigan, and after moving up the depth chart by his junior year, suddenly freshman Drew Henson, the #1 QB prospect in the country, became the 1A starter breathing down Brady’s neck; boosters pressured Carr to play Henson. Brady platooned both seasons despite being much better than Henson. That was cited as a major reason Brady dropped in the draft.

It would be easy to play the what-if game right here. If Henson chooses any other school, Brady is a much higher rated prospect.

But it doesn’t stop there. He gets drafted into the NFL in the late rounds, mainly due to the unlucky Henson situation, to a team that already has three quarterbacks, including a consensus top-5 franchise icon, and should he get a chance, he’s going to have to lead an offense with no pro bowl talent. The team was 5-13 and averaged 17 ppg in the games he was on the sidelines as a backup.

This is why the what-if game with Brady is absurd. He was dealt such a bad hand as it was, and he came out of it as the winner. So shifting to “What if he was drafted by the Colts or Eagles or Browns” seems to greatly miss the point. He was already in one of the most against-all-odds scenarios possible.
That's all a testament to Brady's desire and grit, but to my point, irrelevant. You can't get a chance that's not given to you, by others or by circumstance. Frank Herbert's "Dune" was famously rejected more than a dozen times. Tolkien couldn't get anyone to look at his gigantic Lord of the Rings, until one guy decided to break it into 3 and give it a shot - and then it was voted the best of the 20th Century. This is true all over the place in life, and sports is the most fickle of all.

"What if" isn't a game of denigration - because when those chips fall your way, you have to make the most of it, but even for those who can and do, those chips HAVE to fall their way.

If the refs don't call that tuck play? Brady played his role beautifully, but are you going to argue that he carried the Pats in '03 (4 ints against Manning) and '04 (3 ints, blocked kick against Ben)? I was at the Titans ice bowl game. Defense won it. Defense shut down the Colts the following week. The Superbowl showed Brady in all his glory, though (I was there in Houston), but what is it looking like if Adam misses that kick?

The '04 SB was a true team win. McNabb threw for 120 more yards than Brady, but the D picked him 3 times (and got a fumble). Brady did his job, protected the ball, made all the throws, even to Vrabel, in front of a very hostile crowd (we were outnumbered by Eagles fans at least 3 to 1, and they were really nasty).

So there's dynasty #1, and you could see the emerging greatness of Brady - but so many plays, single plays, going the other way, including a call rarely seen and 3 Adam V specials (snow bowl, Rams SB, Panthers SB), and just tremendous Defensive efforts - shutting down Manning repeatedly, multiple ints, out-toughing the Titans...to say nothing of avoiding catastrophic injuries ( I mean, look what happened to the D when Harrison broke his arm in Houston?)....and where are we?

Now let '05-'14 go as history scripted it, and we're wondering if Brady is Marino instead of Montana.

The point is, there are moments that have to go just right to get to the top in any given situation, and many times, those are out of an individual's control, particularly in sports - and can define a career. A missed extra point, a ground ball through a first baseman's legs. Watch the Ali doc just made and you'll see that even there, it took a last gasp to put his name in stone forever. I stil think that if he fought Foreman in the US, he might have died in the ring.

Brady is both blessed and a blessing - a blessing to the fans, no doubt, with sustained greatness longer than seems humanly possible, and blessed to come onto his path with coaches who saw something and had the guts to act on it (see Dune above), the good fortune of have Drew taken out of the equation long enough, players like Ty Law, Milloy, Rodney, Willie, all coached by a defensive genius, the coolest kicker in the world...and still, a couple of truly lucky breaks.
Between Henson sinking his draft value and then being drafted into what amounts to a worst case scenario due to the Patriots QB situation, the idea of theoretically raising the bar even higher seems like a bizarre idea.

Brady was going to make it. He wasn’t lucky. Inches didn’t decide this. It was going to happen. The only questions were when, where and how. We know this is hindsight, and that’s fine. Brady is one of the biggest outliers in sports history. His determination, confidence, and relentlessness is almost impossible to describe. He was always going to be great.
I don't subscribe to Randian Galt theory, so I disagree. Nobody is "always going to be great." It's always a combination of desire, talent, opportunity, and luck - and the latter two ingredients are not in the individual's control.
 

Doctor DDS

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
I don't get these scenarios at all. Who has it easier?

1. A coach that stays in the same building, in the system he created, with the coaches he trained, and the players he picked; that has total control over every decision that affects the team since he is also the GM.

Said HC/GM put on the field the best team he felt that could be competitive because he's the GOAT coach and knows how to coach up average players. He's apparently also a QB whisperer so he selected the best available QB, a former MVP, to lead his team to victory. Result: 7 - 9 (from 12-4). Missed playoffs for 1st time since 2008.

Or

2. A QB that after spending 20 years in one system, uproots his family, moves them to another state; has to learn a new system, new playbook, new coaches, play with new players, and has little control over every decision that affects the team. He's unable to develop the relationships, timing, and chemistry with his receivers, RBs and OL because a 100 yr pandemic screws up the offseason and season training. Result: 11 - 5 (from 7-9)

Even despite all of the challenges QB faces; he manages to lead his new team, one that hasn't seen a playoff in 18 years, to the promised land by beating the Div. Champion that had beat them down twice during the season, the HFA MVP led best NFC team, and the SB reining champions. Everyone had them as underdogs against all three of those teams.

What Brady did last year had never been done before. Even his haters marvel at his accomplishments, except for Pats fans that claim "even I could've led that stacked team to a SB." Hahahahaha
It's much easier for a player to go to a ready now team and be successful as we see every single off season in the NBA. Certainly do not blame Brady for joining an offense that has finished top 3 in scoring and yards the year before with their biggest issue being a turnover prone QB. The fact he joined an ascending team that by years end was one of the most talented in the league does not diminish the fact he led them to a Super Bowl. All Super Bowl champs have a talented roster and the talent and presence he brought was absolutely huge. Few if any other QB's could have done what he did. Manning did a similar move in 2012. He went to an ascending Broncos team that had just gone 8-8. With Manning replacing a lousy QB in Tebow they go 13-3. He certainly was a big part of that improvement but many QB's would have made a positive impact as that was a talented roster.

BB certainly has ultimate control over the roster but maintaining it for 20+ years is not easy with cap rules and drafting position and after a tough drafting stretch and some dead cap money issues he decided it was better to rebuild vs trying for maybe one of 2 more semi long shot attempts at a championship. He could have tried keeping the gang together like the late 80's Celtics did and hope absolutely everything fell into place but they would not have done much in 2020 either way but I do think they have been able to make a run this year or next if they hit free agency hard and backload contracts delaying the cap pain until 2023 or 2024. If Mac works out as hoped he will have probably traded these 2 semi long shots at the title for a chance of another 10 year run. We'll see how it goes.
 

captain stone

Hall of Fame Poster
there is not a coach in the history of the planet that could have succeeded with that Cleveland team, the 2000 Patriots, or the 2020 patriots. If you want to make conclusions based off those years be my guest but ill wait to see how the next few years shake out.

Bill himself created the 1995 Browns & 2020 Pats.
 

captain stone

Hall of Fame Poster
Yes, 2020 was a reset year after a run that included 3 champions in a span of 6 years. Once the window closes you’re going to have a down year or 2 in the great majority of cases in this league.

As long as you had Brady & a veteran core still contributing, all Bill needed to do to keep the window open was play more of a dink 'n dunk game during the draft and less of a no risk it, no biscuit one - or worse, a likability > talent one. Too many misses = too often having to trade for players other teams are willing to lose, or to be top bidder for unfamiliar mercenaries with unknown priorities... That's what Going All In really looks like.
 

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