Analyzing the offense

[Wozzy]

Bumped for Truth.

That was about one of the worst takes I've ever seen.

Terrible O-Line? The Patriots have given up the third fewest sacks in the entire NFL... in the entire league. They've rushed for the 8th most rushing yards in the NFL... in the entire league. They have one of the best O-Lines in the entire NFL.

The defense not making timely stops against the run has been a problem the last couple games, the bigger problem was the offense's inability to move the ball and turning the ball over. The defense is ranked 2nd in the entire league in points allowed.

Special teams blocking hasn't been good, but then the entire team's blocking hasn't. The offense still ranks #2 in the entire NFL in starting field position... which is great. Foles has been rock solid, Bailey is still one of the best punters in the league.

 

[captain stone]

Here’s an interesting stat…

Record against teams finishing over 500: 3-7
Record against teams finishing under 500: 7-0

That might need to factor into the analysis

Yep: Boogermen.

 

[captain stone]

The 2017 had the talent to overcome mistakes.

The 2021 team has none of that except at RB.

fify

 

[captain stone]

You can try, but every team makes mistakes. You have to be able to overcome them, not pray for perfection and lose if you don’t get it.

Except that this year's team HAD to play "No more My bad; everything's got to be perfect" because they simply don't have even close to enough talent on Either side of the LOS to overcome mistakes.

 

[Ring 6]

Except that this year's team HAD to play "No more My bad; everything's got to be perfect" because they simply don't have even close to enough talent on Either side of the LOS to overcome mistakes.

You keep saying they should be the 1 seed.
How can that be if they have no talent?
They weren’t close to perfect in their 10 wins that qualified them for the playoffs.

 

[captain stone]

That was about one of the worst takes I've ever seen.

Terrible O-Line? The Patriots have given up the third fewest sacks in the entire NFL... in the entire league. They've rushed for the 8th most rushing yards in the NFL... in the entire league. They have one of the best O-Lines in the entire NFL.

The defense not making timely stops against the run has been a problem the last couple games, the bigger problem was the offense's inability to move the ball and turning the ball over. The defense is ranked 2nd in the entire league in points allowed.

Special teams blocking hasn't been good, but then the entire team's blocking hasn't. The offense still ranks #2 in the entire NFL in starting field position... which is great. Foles has been rock solid, Bailey is still one of the best punters in the league.

"Shaky" OL was the quote, and that describes them perfectly... They're not terrible, but they're also Not one of the best in the entire league either.

And the bolded in the final paragraph is just flat-out Wrong.

 

[Wozzy]

"Shaky" OL was the quote, and that describes them perfectly... They're not terrible, but they're also Not one of the best in the entire league either.

And the bolded in the third paragraph is just a flat-out lie.

They're one of the best O-Lines in the league... it's literally spelled out for you in the stats.

3rd fewest sacks, 8th most rushing yards in the entire NFL... impossible with a bad, "shaky" or otherwise offensive line.

Like I said... terrible take, absolutely horrid take.

But hey, if anyone says anything bad about the Pats... Captain Stoned will be there to agree with it, even if it's completely wrong.

Take your Zoloft.

 

[captain stone]

You keep saying they should be the 1 seed.
How can that be if they have no talent?
They weren’t close to perfect in their 10 wins that qualified them for the playoffs.

An extremely fortuitous schedule that caught opponents in compromising injury situations, and the weather... Even after the first Miami loss & the Dallas loss, the Patsies still had the top seed on a silver platter going into the bye... and they ****ing blew it.

 

[Ring 6]

What attitude? Disagreeing that "checking down too soon" is a problem is not attitude.

Let me put it in another way that's easier to digest, in seven losses this season the Patriots have turned the ball over 16 times, two turnovers in every loss except two games where they had three. This doesn't include blocked punts which, at least in the Dallas game, was caused by the offense taking too long to decide whether they'd go for a fourth down conversion and giving the punt unit no time to set up.

In ten victories this season the offense turned it over 7 times. Only two victories this season came when the offense turned it over twice, the Panthers and the Texans, against the Panther the Patriots defense forced them into three turnovers. So the Patriots only won two games this year when they turned it over more than once. In the remaining eight victories they only turned it over three times, once in each game and five games with no turnovers.

And yes, football teams do their best to not make mistakes and execute at a high level. This team has been inconsistent, mistake prone, has caused untimely penalties at the worst times, has turned it over entirely too much and at bad times, they miss blocking assignments or jump offsides... when none of this is happening is when they accumulated stats which made them a top scoring unit in the NFL. There's no secret sauce to be found here, they need to play smarter and protect the ball better.

This attitude

If you want an echo chamber where nobody disagrees with you, posting this on a public forum discussing Patriots football is probably not the way to achieve it.

If you want to have a discussion about turnovers go ahead. This discussion was about the mechanics of the offense that hold it back.
In 7 losses they scored 137 points (19.6 per game) and lost by an average of 8 points. In 10 wins they scored 325 points (32.5 per game)
Stopping what holds the offense back from scoring more points when they play good teams and when they lose turns losses into wins.
Understanding where you are underperforming and fixing it is a better approach than let’s hope we don’t make mistakes and pretend we are perfect otherwise.
Should they not work on improving the run defense because all that matters is turnovers?


Turnover impact on winning and losing is no different with the patriots than any other team.
A game plan revolving around prioritizing getting to 3rd down rather than being more aggressive to get past the sticks in 1st and 2nd down IS a patriot specific issue that has hurt them this year.
If turnovers and mistakes are equal or close to it on both sides this type of issue decides games, if they are not, this is a way to overcome it.

 

[Ring 6]

An extremely fortuitous schedule that caught opponents in compromising injury situations, and the weather... Even after the first Miami loss & the Dallas loss, the Patsies still had the top seed on a silver platter going into the bye... and they ****ing blew it.

How can that be if they have no talent?

 

[captain stone]

They're one of the best O-Lines in the league... it's literally spelled out for you in the stats.

3rd fewest sacks, 8th most rushing yards in the entire NFL... impossible with a bad, "shaky" or otherwise offensive line.

Like I said... terrible take, absolutely horrid take.

But hey, if anyone says anything bad about the Pats... Captain Stoned will be there to agree with it, even if it's completely wrong.

Take your Zoloft.

This is what I get, even after siding with you in your little tiff with Ring6? I am depressed...

 

[Ring 6]

Final roster lacked a playmaking WR we are too hit and more miss on 3rd and 3 or more. Hope we play like we have nothing to lose and please BB don't dress Harry tonight.

We are 48/144 on 3rd and 4 or more (33%)

The league avg is 49/155 (32%)

Very average in an offense that is above average in most aspects.

 

[PScottman]

Great research and narrative analysis - thank you.

As always, there's more data - too much for anyone to go through and collate unless it was their full time job. That you did that much as a hobby is impressive.

During the seven game winning streak vs the two mini-losing streaks - how often was the offense derailed by OL/procedure/holding penalties at key moments - whether during scoring chances/chunk plays/or or on a series right after an opposing score where the defense needed to be off the field (to recuperate or mores to truly adjust and get coached) and instead was right back on the field?

This was a tremendous offensive campaign...more so being a rookie QB with basically an all new skill position group.

Will the consistency and fundamentals improve in the second year for a lot of these guys where they act like the true unit they showed in the winning streak vs the inconsistency of the losing one? No reason to think otherwise.

 

[Ring 6]

Here’s an interesting stat…

Record against teams finishing over 500: 3-7
Record against teams finishing under 500: 7-0

That might need to factor into the analysis

Very typical of a 10-7 team.

 

[Wozzy]

This attitude

If you want to have a discussion about turnovers go ahead. This discussion was about the mechanics of the offense that hold it back.
In 7 losses they scored 137 points (19.6 per game) and lost by an average of 8 points. In 10 wins they scored 325 points (32.5 per game)
Stopping what holds the offense back from scoring more points when they play good teams and when they lose turns losses into wins.
Understanding where you are underperforming and fixing it is a better approach than let’s hope we don’t make mistakes and pretend we are perfect otherwise.
Should they not work on improving the run defense because all that matters is turnovers?


Turnover impact on winning and losing is no different with the patriots than any other team.
A game plan revolving around prioritizing getting to 3rd down rather than being more aggressive to get past the sticks in 1st and 2nd down IS a patriot specific issue that has hurt them this year.
If turnovers and mistakes are equal or close to it on both sides this type of issue decides games, if they are not, this is a way to overcome it.

The only "attitude" was you saying that if I disagreed I shouldn't respond.

Losing a possession to a turnover means one fewer opportunity to score and giving one more opportunity to an opponent to score... very often in good field position or close to the red zone where points are almost guaranteed. This most certainly has held the offense back.

They're ranked 17th in turnovers, they're ranked 23rd in fumbles lost... there are only 32 teams. That makes them below average.

The Patriots rank 10th in third down conversion rate... which means they convert at a higher rate than 2/3rds of the league. Turnovers aren't equal on both sides... that makes no sense.

Is the Patriots offense a little too conservative might a legitimate question, but they have trouble executing a 4 yard pass... I'm not sure it improves trying to execute a longer one. They're a mistake prone team. I'd like to see Josh open the offense up some, against the Bills when they used the two minute offense Mac passed at will. Either way, if they turn the ball over or have a gaggle of penalties like they have in all their losses they are going to lose again.

 

[Wozzy]

This is what I get, even after siding with you in your little tiff with Ring6? I am depressed...

Facts don't cease being true because someone refuses to believe them.

 

[Fubby]

They're one of the best O-Lines in the league... it's literally spelled out for you in the stats.

3rd fewest sacks, 8th most rushing yards in the entire NFL... impossible with a bad, "shaky" or otherwise offensive line.

Like I said... terrible take, absolutely horrid take.

But hey, if anyone says anything bad about the Pats... Captain Stoned will be there to agree with it, even if it's completely wrong.

Take your Zoloft.

You can let statistics that can be interpreted a million different ways guide you if you like. I’d prefer to just follow what I’m watching with my own eyes.

 

[Ring 6]

The only "attitude" was you saying that if I disagreed I shouldn't respond.

Losing a possession to a turnover means one fewer opportunity to score and giving one more opportunity to an opponent to score... very often in good field position or close to the red zone where points are almost guaranteed. This most certainly has held the offense back.

They're ranked 17th in turnovers, they're ranked 23rd in fumbles lost... there are only 32 teams. That makes them below average.

The Patriots rank 10th in third down conversion rate... which means they convert at a higher rate than 2/3rds of the league. Turnovers aren't equal on both sides... that makes no sense.

Is the Patriots offense a little too conservative might a legitimate question, but they have trouble executing a 4 yard pass... I'm not sure it improves trying to execute a longer one. They're a mistake prone team. I'd like to see Josh open the offense up some, against the Bills when they used the two minute offense Mac passed at will. Either way, if they turn the ball over or have a gaggle of penalties like they have in all their losses they are going to lose again.

I absolutely did not say if you disagree you shouldn’t respond.
I said that if you are going to post that the defined topic has no value then don’t post about it. If the topic has no value why would you post about it? If you want to post about a different topic make a thread about it. That is not attitude, it’s requesting you stay in topic.

If they don’t turn the ball over and put themselves in a position to have to convert 5-6 3rd downs on drives they won’t win anyway.
This has been a consistent issue for years that reared it’s head in a big way this year.
Of course there are many factors in teams winning and losing. Everyone of them is very important, and often the turnover issue is CAUSED by an issue like this, which absolutely has happened this year, where an offense that isn’t scoring gets behind and turns the ball over.

 

[Fubby]

Very typical of a 10-7 team.

Haha that’s one way to look at it

 

[Wozzy]

You can let statistics that can be interpreted a million different ways guide you if you like. I’d prefer to just follow what I’m watching with my own eyes.

One of the best pass protection and rushing O-Lines in the league can't simultaneously be bad and a top eight unit.

Kind of like Kareem Abdul Jabbar can't be short, the sky can't be made of cheese and rain can't dry you off.