After 12 games with Mac: which QBs would you take right now over him?

[ctpatsfan77]

Right. This is the “high floor/low ceiling” thing. The question I’ve never been able to understand is what “low ceiling” means? Just in terms of comparables, Mac seems to have the tools of a 2001 Brady or a Pennington or a Manning.

The argument with respect to Jones is that some people think he's basically maximized his talent already, and has no room left to grow: in other words, basically, what we're seeing is essentially the best he's going to be.

Obviously, that's bunk.

 

[fair catch fryar]

The argument with respect to Jones is that some people think he's basically maximized his talent already, and has no room left to grow: in other words, basically, what we're seeing is essentially the best he's going to be.

Obviously, that's bunk.

Sorta like that system QB we had from 2001 - 2007.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Right. This is the “high floor/low ceiling” thing. The question I’ve never been able to understand is what “low ceiling” means? Just in terms of comparables, Mac seems to have the tools of a 2001 Brady or a Pennington or a Manning.

Never understood that either, if he can read defenses and make quick decisions and make all the throws what else is there?

 

[Pats1971]

Sorta like that system QB we had from 2001 - 2007.

So you do not really remember 01-07 do you?

 

[Pats1971]

The argument with respect to Jones is that some people think he's basically maximized his talent already, and has no room left to grow: in other words, basically, what we're seeing is essentially the best he's going to be.

Obviously, that's bunk.

Well its bunk in the fact that nobody knows, it could be true it could be false. Thats the great thing about not knowing.

 

[fair catch fryar]

So you do not really remember 01-07 do you?

Turn on your sarcasm meter.

 

[Deus Irae]

The argument with respect to Jones is that some people think he's basically maximized his talent already, and has no room left to grow: in other words, basically, what we're seeing is essentially the best he's going to be.

Obviously, that's bunk.

You're overselling the lowness of the ceiling, IMO. But, just for one example of where floor/ceiling might apply:

Jones is throwing the ball at a 70% completion rate, as a rookie, which is 2 percentage points higher than the current career best ever. That's not likely to get much higher over the course of his career, just based upon history and the likelihood of him throwing more downfield over time.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I'd take Mac over GoldenHair Surprise Child or any of the others - rookie or otherwise. Mac's got that chip on his shoulder - he has his gf run the playbook with him. Heck, they probably play football motivation games in the sac. TrevLaw - "it's not like I need (football) for my life to be OK."

Talk about putting money where Mac's mouth is from back in March: "“This quarterback class is really a good class. I’m just blessed to be a part of it,” Jones said during Monday’s pre-workout press conference. “You can watch the guys' tape and see we all have great tape. But what separates me is my preparation and my ability to learn and take from the coaches meetings and my own meetings and apply it on the field.” The stones on this guy to say that (plus the whole "Tell your defense to stop that" to Saban). Seems like he's got a lot of things working upstairs.

How does this game work - do we assume instant rapport with a QB with our current receivers? Does that mean Brady won't look at Jakobi at all even if he's wide open?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

You're overselling the lowness of the ceiling, IMO. But, just for one example of where floor/ceiling might apply:

Jones is throwing the ball at a 70% completion rate, as a rookie, which is 2 percentage points higher than the current career best ever. That's not likely to get much higher over the course of his career, just based upon history and the likelihood of him throwing more downfield over time.

Fine. "Much less room to grow." But I have seen the maxed out version of the argument recently, mostly among those who have refused to accept their new Patriot overlord.

 

[LFGMac10]

Not really. The quality of the first pick in the draft varies especially with QBs. A top QB could go #1 in the draft, but be like the 5th or 6th best player in the draft or not even in the top 10. But he is the #1 pick because the league revolves around the QB position and a team will draft a QB over a much better player who plays another position because they are desperate for a franchise QB.

So you're saying every year teams pin their hopes on a franchise player who may or may not work out with the first pick in the draft? Lawrence has a much bigger chance of being Cam Newton or Alrx Smith than he does Peyton Manning. I'll take the guy that seems like he was built to run this system and is on pace for OROY.

 

[LFGMac10]

Why wouldn't anyone take the 7 time Super Bowl Champion Tom Brady?

His wife is going to make him retire in another year

 

[LFGMac10]

The question is whether Mahones would execute this scheme the way these coach’s want. Not sure he could especially with these personnel.

Mahommes has had the luxury of the 1st or 2nd best skill players on offense since he started playing. He a great talent, but look at how down to earth he looks all of a sudden when they took away his big play with his top flight receivers and right end

 

[sb1]

Mahommes has had the luxury of the 1st or 2nd best skill players on offense since he started playing. He a great talent, but look at how down to earth he looks all of a sudden when they took away his big play with his top flight receivers and right end

And even Alex Smith looked great with Hill and Hunt and Kelce to throw to.

 

[TomPatriot]

Fine. "Much less room to grow." But I have seen the maxed out version of the argument recently, mostly among those who have refused to accept their new Patriot overlord.

He can work on his physique, arm strength, the remainder of the playbook and, maybe, the deep ball. That slide needs a little work too.

I don’t know how anyone can complain about his rookie year though. He’s playing at a very high level.

 

[LFGMac10]

Really?! You'd rather not have Mahomes over Mac? Really?! Come on, man. Mahomes has won NFL MVP, won a Superbowl, been to another, is a bonafide star, arguably best player in the game right now, and is still young and will be around for 15 more years.

Mac Jones has had 6 good games against ok-ish teams. Come on!

I dont think mahommes can do what Mac is doing with the same level of weapons. He benefits from an all star cast. Once they took the big play away, all of a sudden every year since 2018 the teams average points per game has been dropping. They went from 34 to 25.5 this year and is been a steady decline. That tells you teams are figuring him out and he's not able to change his game. When you can do what Brady can do and what Mac seems to be able to do, which is decipher a defense, find the holes and make accurate throws, there's no way to defend that long term. Sure someone may get you for a game or two, but then you study, find the holes and beat them next time. Then you add that to your body of knowledge. So I don't see how I would take anyone else based on what I think the kids potential is

 

[LFGMac10]

Never understood that either, if he can read defenses and make quick decisions and make all the throws what else is there?

There is nothing else, only winning

 

[bormio]

There is nothing else, only winning

Plus he is competitive, coachable and a leader. Gotta hate that.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Why wouldn't anyone take the 7 time Super Bowl Champion Tom Brady?

If you are talking THIS year alone, then you would take him. If you are talking long-term, you'd take Mac.

 

[Rob0729]

So you're saying every year teams pin their hopes on a franchise player who may or may not work out with the first pick in the draft? Lawrence has a much bigger chance of being Cam Newton or Alrx Smith than he does Peyton Manning. I'll take the guy that seems like he was built to run this system and is on pace for OROY.

I am saying that teams overvalue QB prospects over other positions because this is a QB driven league. The general consensus this year was that Lawrence was the clear best talent in this year's draft followed by Penei Sewell and Kyle Pitts. Yet, three QBs were drafted before either Sewell or Pitts. And Trey Lance wasn't on anyone's that I know of top 10 on their big board. He was generally considered to be in the teens or twenties in terms of top talent in the draft, yet he went third.

And of course Lawrence is more likely to be less than Manning. Manning is a top 3-5 QB of all time. The odds of any QB prospect being as good as Peyton Manning no matter how good they are coming out of college is remote. That doesn't mean that Lawrence wasn't considered a generational type of talent coming out of college and is far better coming out of college than many of the QBs you listed. Again, some of guys you listed weren't even consensus to be the best QB coming out of their respected drafts never mind being the first overall pick.

 

[1960Pats]

Newton

Oh yeah, I forgot that "he's baaaack!" How's he doing?