AccuScore simulation: AFC Championship game

[jcdavey]

whew this saves sd an expensive flight back east, hopefully the 2 weeks of rest before the sb won't have and ill effects on the pats lol

 

[TommyD4207]

whew this saves sd an expensive flight back east, hopefully the 2 weeks of rest before the sb won't have and ill effects on the pats lol

I'm worried about them coming out rusty.
This sucks now. I wish San Diego would come and play. C'Mon, it doesn't cost THAT much.

 

[Fahrenhype]

Scenarios NE SD
BASELINE 89.4% 10.6%
No Rivers or LT 91.9% 8.1%
Copyright AccuScore.com

Rivers and LT being out only accounts for a 2.5% difference? :bricks:

You gotta play the game. God knows what the statistical forecasts were for Superbowl XXXVI.

 

[Gumby]

I have to say that computer modeling of a franchise that just went undefeated has got to be thrown off by that 0 number in the denominator (or is that numerator )

and how can it predict anything about the injury situation. That has to be programmed in by best guess of the operator. And frankly nobody, to inlcude the Chargers, I think really knows how the injury situation will turn out.

This is another situation where I think 8 or 9 times out of 10 the Pats win. But this is the NFL and the ball bounces funny. Any given Sunday is what keeps us coming back to the TV to watch the game.

 

[DarrylS]

I played 10,000 games on Madded 08 with Pats and Chargers and the Chargers won 85% of the time. Boy glad I did that now I don't have to worry about the Pats winning the game.

What do you do in your spare time??

 

[GameDay]

probably not so much better.....

the EXPERTS!
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/pickem

Picking straight up is easy, the favorites have been winning at the same rate as Yahoo voters or Accuscore. More difficult is vs the spread; FWIW, a colleague who tracked Accuscore for 87 games of his interests (out of ~264 this season) told me Accuscore was 42-45 against the spread, hardly impressive. But since he focused in games with good underdogs, this may indicate Accuscore's bias toward the favorite. Wonder anyone winning using Accuscore?

SD has a much better chance than this Accuscore result.