2018 NFL Teams Stock Watch

[ivanvamp]

Buy, sell, or hold? Which three teams do you put in each category?

Buy:
- San Francisco. They're up and coming. I think JG is the real deal. They have a good coaching staff and they started playing well before JG got the starts, so this was already a team on the rise. They have a TON of money available to improve their team as well.

- Jacksonville. Excellent defense, and I think Bortles showed me enough to think that they could continue to improve. I like Marrone as coach.

- LA Rams. Young. Fast. Talented on both sides of the ball. This team is on the rise with a bullet. Will be very fun watching them compete with the 49ers next year.


Hold:
- New England. Been the single most dominant force in the NFL for 17 years now. That's not changing in 2018 barring some catastrophe. They should be right there in the AFCCG again, with a good chance at another Super Bowl berth.

- Philadelphia. Some cap issues, but they have a quality roster. The QB situation will be worth bearing out, and losing Reich will hurt some. But this is a very good team that may be getting a better QB back (Wentz).

- Pittsburgh. One more good season from Roethlisberger. Still with outstanding talent on this roster. A team with plenty of ammo for 2018.


Sell:
- Seattle. Aging defense, may lose some key components. OL is a mess. Team on the decline. Still capable of winning a big game but they're also in a division with the Rams and resurgent 49ers.

- Atlanta. Lots of talent still, but I think NO is the class of the division. I see Atlanta continuing to decline. Matt Ryan's 2016 campaign will more and more seem like an outlier.

- Kansas City. Not sure that Mahomes will be the guy to take this team forward. Aging defense. Love Hunt but I see them taking a step back next year, not a step forward.


Who you got, Patsfans?

 

[Soliel]

There will be a few surprises next year. I think there will be a team rising from out west like Arizona or San Diego maybe

 

[Nehalem]

I think the Steelers are a sell. They have cap problems. And will have to overspend, or lose, their star RB. Antonio Brown will be 30. They had a lot of close games that they won last year. It wouldn't take much of a regression for those close games to become loses.

 

[Ivan]

Nice thread idea. It’s early because we don’t know who will have good or bad offseason’s, but still interesting. For now:

Buy:

New England-Retaining MacDaniels helped with possible coaching losses, and the roster is still really strong. Hard to doubt them when they are a final four team every season.

Houston-Getting Watson back should make them a solid contender next season.

Jacksonville-QB will still be a question mark but that’s a really good young defense.

Philadelphia-Losing Reich hurts, but getting Wentz back, and depth at QB really helps. They should be a final four team again next season.

New Orleans-Best team in the NFC after Philly. Bree’s makes them a serious contender.

Los Angeles-The next steps are the hardest but it’s a strong young team with most of the critical pieces in place.

S.F.- I don’t buy them as a playoff team yet, but I think Garrapolo will put them in that discussion, as well as help with their offseason.


Hold:

Pittsburgh-If Roethlisberger plays well they will be in contention, if not they will be in real trouble. I don’t believe does the work in the offseason, and that’s going to catch up with him, when remains to be seen?

Baltimore-I see another borderline playoff season in their future, it’s who they are.

Tennessee-Good young talent base, but Mariota must take the next step for them to go any further.

San Diego-Same as Baltimore, they hold fast as a borderline playoff team.

Dallas-Elliot changes who they are and definitely makes them a better team, but as long as Jones is in charge they will be unpredictable.

Green Bay-Rodgers makes them a contender, the rest of the team is questionable.

Minnesota-Great defense, but QB has to be resolved, and the decision has to be right.

Detroit-Good QB, decent offense, Patricia will make them a better team.

Seattle-They are descending from the top ranks of the league, whether their front office has the ability to rebuild on the fly has yet to be seen. Wilson keeps them a contender.


Sell:

K.C.- The Chef’s took the big gamble, now we see if they were right. Either way it’s a ballsy move.



Other than this I’ll see how the offseason goes, Denver, in particular, has to address QB the right way to determine buy or sell.

 

[maust]

It's all in how you view the buy, sell, hold concept. Viewing it in a true stock recommendation vein:
Buy:
Patriots: Prestige blue chip currently slightly undervalued.
Bills: Definitely a team on the rise, buy now and hold for long term return
Browns: Current valuation provides potential low risk/moderate reward
Texans: Poised for swift rise with primary facility resuming production
Colts: Low buy in makes for a churn n burn. DO NOT HOLD LONG
Chargers: Competition falling back. In the land of the blind...
Giants: Soft recommendation based on low buy in (see Browns)
Lions: Represent an excellent value
Saints: Outstanding ROI looming
Niners: On the come, solid long term outlook

Hold:
Jets: Currently the equivalent of a penny stock awaiting appreciation.
Ravens: Current price low, marketplace competition falling off may drive value
Bengals: (see Ravens)
Broncos: (see Jets)
Cowboys: No end in sight to artificial value
Packers: Stable earner on the rebound
Cards: Existing assets justify patience but bears watching
Rams: Temptation to sell should be resisted, asset rich value climber


Sell:
Dolphins: Get out NOW. The + by - mentality bumped this dog's valuation
Steelers: Perennially over valued.
Jaguars: You've missed the peak, sell now but be prepared to buy in future
Chiefs: Too many variables for this overpriced payroll
Raiders: Marketplace doesn't justify current value.
Eagles: If you didn't already panic sell, your ship has come in.
Skins: Sucker born every minute, false confidence drives excellent return
Falcons: Peak not sustainable
Panthers: Primary asset unstable
Seahawks: Already in free fall, get what you can

If you bought low sell, otherwise ride it out:
Titans, Vikings, Bears, Bucs

 

[ivanvamp]

Good call on the Texans. I think they could be pretty good next year if Watson is healthy. That's a big IF given his style of play, but hey, the market comes with risks, right?

 

[patsfaninpa]

I would dump on the Falcons too much. They beat a pretty good but inexperienced Rams team on the road. Had Philly on the ropes. 1st and goal inside 10 and
didn't score. Needed a td to win. Running game chewing em up and threw 3/4 times. Prob score if they pound it in there a couple of more times.

 

[patriot1136]

Philly will be extremely interesting. I wonder what kind of Super Bowl hangover they will have. Plus, what do they do with Foles and Wentz? I imagine they trade Foles right? Their salary cap has got to be tricky with some of those contracts.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Philly will be extremely interesting. I wonder what kind of Super Bowl hangover they will have. Plus, what do they do with Foles and Wentz? I imagine they trade Foles right? Their salary cap has got to be tricky with some of those contracts.

Wentz will be coming off of a late-season ACL Tear. Would be wise to hold on to Foles this year.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Wentz will be coming off of a late-season ACL Tear. Would be wise to hold on to Foles this year.

They can't keep him past next year due to his contract. I expect them to trade him at the deadline, like we did with Garoppolo.

 

[stinkypete]

Buy
San Francisco, Houston, Philly, LA Rams
4 elite young QBs, 4 defenses that at least have elite pieces in place, each of these teams should be deep playoff regulars for the next decade

Sell
Indy
Haven't had a full, healthy season from Luck since 2014, they got jilted by their first choice for coach, and their roster is gutted

The AFC West
With the purge coming on defense and a first year starter, it looks like the Chiefs are taking a step back in order to take a step forward. There is something wrong with that Oakland locker room and I get the feeling that Gruden 2.0 will resemble Joe Gibbs' return to coaching. Denver looks ready to sell the farm to sign Cousins, who needs a really big farm to be a playoff QB.

Hold
New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New Orleans, Dallas, Altanta, Carolina, Green Bay
What we saw in 2017 is what we can expect to get in 2018 (Aaron Rodgers' injury notwithstanding). These teams will contend again but are probably not moving in any direction. I would have Jacksonville in the buy list except I think we witnessed the peak of Blake Bortles already.

Seattle
While we are getting very close to a rebuild, the Seahawks have the most underrated elite QB in the game. They can be a contender again in short order with a good offseason or two.