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Picking straight up is easy, the favorites have been winning at the same rate as Yahoo voters or Accuscore. More difficult is vs the spread; FWIW, a colleague who tracked Accuscore for 87 games of his interests (out of ~264 this season) told me Accuscore was 42-45 against the spread, hardly...

coincidence. Where does superstition come from?

Do you treat all points with equal probability? Many points are scored by offense on long drive Many points are scored by offense on short drive from TO and downs Some points are scored by pick 6 or fumble return Some points are scored by special teams (KO or punt return) Same for points...

Apricissimus, some people like forecast for fun, like futures of oils or other commodities. They look at weather for the whole year and worry about corn/ethanol potential yields, impact at the pump, etc... It's a style of living...:) BTW, Madden is a game, not serious simulation like Accuscore...

I meant against the spreads and actual final scores. I'm interested in accurate prediction rather than just who wins (of course Accuscore is 17 for 17 on the Pats). For this game, if I give significant weight to SD victory over Colts, then NE should have only 76% chance vs. 24% for SD. In many...

Accuscore has been leaning toward the favorites this season. It has consistently overestimated the Pats in the 2nd half of the season and would lose the point spread. It has been giving too low a chance for Pats' opponents.

Not always 50-50 every game. 50-50 over all games yes. The house does win big when much more $ comes in on the losing side. They are called suckers bets.

Pats 2-6 ATS in last 8 regulars, the 2 covers are Buffalo and Pitts games. 2-7 including PO (Jacksonville). Many sharp bettors have picked against Pats consistently after Philly games

Mark_Brunell, Game over, peace. I saw your post and thought to drop it dead, but since you jinxed the Colts :) , I'll make a few clarifications: - I did not predict a blowout against JAX - There was no sarcasm intended about the semantics of blowout nor did I ever called 11-pt win a blowout...

May be you're right. That's it. If who you are rooting for, I would expect 80-20 in Jags' favor.

You may be onto something. What is the chance that the population looking at NFL.com is that much different from those of ESPN.com? Very small. One web site might not have sophisticated cookies and IP check and there must be bots that abuse one site more than the other.

Patriots’ perfection will mean bigger paychecks Brady, Moss & Co. will likely cash in after record-shattering season http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22578742/ The US has been the world juggernaut for global talents (esp. hi-tech) and entrepreneurs as the bests and the brightests keep on coming to...

Now I see your earlier post and where you came from... it may be semantics with "blow out", which may mean winning by 10 to some and 20 to others. Why don't you take 13.5 points? it's a bargain.

If you flip a coin 100 times and you get 90 heads, 10 tails, what do you conclude? a- An amazing streak (miraculous) b- The coin is a trick coin (head bias) Without knowing anything about the coin, the correct answer is b. Likewise, you can turn your argument around to say that given the Pats...

No not homer. We treat all teams the same. Nothing special about Pats or Jags. I posted here because I'm Pats fan and just for fun. (our team doing this model includes non-Pats fans). About taking only the last 5 games... yeah, but we disagree. We do count recent games more than older games...

Thks for the comments. The fact that the spread is 13.5 means that Las Vegas thinks the Pats are better than in their recent games. They are greedy and try to suck in more Jags $ (it's ~ 60% JAX, 40% NE) by moving the line from 11 to 13.5. Usually I don't bet with so much uncertainty, but my...

If you look most recent games only, the Pats should NOT be favored by 13.5. Las Vegas thinks like other analysts: recent games are not very indicative of the Pats. There might be something else and this was debated quite a bit. (Sure, other teams have figured out, but may be the Pats did not...

79% is very good odds. I'll enjoy a win regardless, but we already gave 11 points (with some trepidation). so I will pray for NE by 11 or more :) .

Not mean to hi-jack this thread, but this is our analysis FWIW. Chance of NE winning 20 or more is from 15% to 30%. Note: Accuscore prediction is something like NE 30-18 and NE win prob is ~81-82% vs 18% for JAX. Other note: If using only last 8 games for NE and 7 for JAX, it will be a tight game.

It's not the absolute number. It's the trend. If they feel the movement is toward them, they may feel better? I think it may get to 10 at most. Doubtful if 9.5.