What I have to wiegh in on is the seperation of COACHING and personnel evaluation. I think Beoli thinks them one and the same, and as outsiders we may be able to actually see the difference. I will agree with anyone that we have the BEST coach out there, and like any other personnel dept we make mistakes. But kindly put your torches and stakes down and let me explain...
One poster in this thread hit it on the head when he said that BB/SP are more concerned about not screwing up the first rd picks than hitting the jackpot with later rounds. First round busts kill teams. But the other half of it is the obvious drafting of NEED rather than BPA. For several years now we have gone into the draft with such obvious holes that our first rounders have been....well, no brainers. Given the job and all the opportunity to accept all the coaching from the BEST coach out there their success has been appropriate yet really unspectacular. If you see the hole in the lineup and drop a first rd pick in it, well, of course it works because of the coaching!
BUT, what you dont see, and maybe its on purpose a little bit, players outplaying their draft position. On average every first AND second rd pick SHOULD be starters and some should be superstars! Some players from the later rounds should be starters and backups, rarely reaching any kind of "special" status(long term starter,pro bowl,etc). This is why most draft pundits have anticipated Mayo being defensive rookie of the year...because of the coaching he will recieve and the time he will get on the field(from lack of depth).
Some wont believe me, so I suggest going back and looking at the high picks that DIDNT work out "perfectly". The common denominator there is usually we didnt have that glaring hole/NEED and the player was the BPA.
Mayo-starting ILB backer-should succeed due to depth-HOLE
Meriweather-backup-we already had "starting" safeties-BPA
Mankins-starting G-Andruzzi just left-the only big HOLE on the team
Maroney-shared role- Dillon on the way out(lower yds/carry)-HOLE
Watson-shared role-already had Graham-BPA
Wilfork-starting NT-our biggest HOLE and he fell to us(lucky), why didnt we trade up??
Warren-starting DL-HOLE
Seymour-starting DL-HOLE
Graham-starting TE-HOLE
Now I want to give the personnel dept props for the aggressiveness and proactive trading involved to get these guys for "proper value/draft position"(for the most part). But I suggest that with few exceptions, what we have given up in draft pick value to MOVE into has been higher than the players' value in hindsight. Now I wont argue moves based on NEED, but when this team trades up for BPA things just dont seem to work out as planned. Now you can argue CJ was a NEED, but I will also counter that he was BPA. And its not the one-time bust that hurts a team, but its the package and trade up, package and trade up....burning more than a few 3rd and 4th rd picks which usually represent the backbone of successful teams.
If a player "works out"(I define a trade up in the first 2 rounds suceeded by better than average starter/pro bowl)great! One great player most times is worth 2 average ones if you are going to Super bowls every year. But when this fails not only are you pressured to keep the player longer than you want(and pay his higher $$)but you now have to counter it with a 5th and 6th rd picks making the team instead of those 3rd and 4ths that were traded away. Now you have not only inbalance in your team but you still have to fill the original role the bust was drafted to fill.
CJ is not the first official BB/SP bust, that honor belongs to Bethel Johnson. What is(or should be)obvious is that WR is likely a position best filled with FAs rather than draft picks(much like QBs). After the Branch fiasco we should have realized that character as much as talent defines the position. Like some other teams we learned the hard way. And we should also realize that at some point our "value" on a player and the free markets "value" should come more(not wholly) into line. The BB/SP term started with the trading away of talent from the previous staff netting draft picks which he built with. Its important to realize diminishing value before a player totally loses value in the eyes of the league. At some point in the offseason I suggest CJ had value...sorry for the long post.
