First half retrospective

I don't see it. Before the season, I expected 5-4 at this point in the year, with a significant dropoff after the bye because the schedule gets way worse. Nothing I've seen about this team or the rest of their opponents has moved the needle for me on that.

• NYJ - Very winnable based on the fact that we seem to have Zach Wilson figured out, but they've shown higher upside than us this year and could pull off the split.
• @MIN - The only thing keeping me from calling this an automatic loss is the fact that it's both Kirk Cousins and primetime.
• BUF - I will believe it when I see it.
• @ARI - We're the better team, but the matchup is in their favor the way we've been completely unable to defend running QBs. This is only a win for us if the offense shows things it has not shown all season.
• @LV - This would be pretty humiliating to lose, but it happened last time McDaniels was gone. I expect a win though.
• CIN - Could go either way on this one. Our pass rush will dominate their OL, but if Burrow is willing to run a lot, it might not matter.
• MIA - I will believe it when I see it.
• @BUF - I will believe it when I see it.

I'll put those games into 3 different bins:

• Probable win: NYJ, @LV
• Toss up: @ARI, CIN
• Probable loss: @MIN, BUF, MIA, @BUF

If we split the difference on the toss ups, that's 3 additional wins and an 8-9 finish. To make the playoffs, we're going to have to beat some teams that are better on paper than we are, and we're going to have to beat teams that have owned us over the last few years.

I'm less interested in the record than I am in the ongoing development and evaluation of the players on hand, including the quarterback(s), of course. I suppose we might get into the playoffs, but does it really matter, given we have no chance of advancing?

I understand many here get all swoony at any mention of Mac's demonstrated shortcomings, but we do need to know whether he is or is not to be counted on, and it requires honesty, not nurturant bleating over Mac's hurt feelings, to make that determination. I will certainly acknowledge there are shortcoming on the roster and in the coaching which make Mac's job more difficult, but anyone must admit, I think, that his efforts at surmounting these difficulties have been weak and discouraging this year. Some see his present mediocrity as being some sort of base from which he can launch his flight to excellence, but it is at least as likely that a solid record of mediocrity demonstrates ... irremediable mediocrity. I suspect most share my concerns, notwithstanding the burgeoning cottage industry here and in the media devoted to fabricating excuses for the guy.

As for the coaching, Patricia is - as any rational fella would have expected, and as many said early on - not up to the job. I'd even give some weight to the argument that it is unfair to evaluate Mac in any definitive way when his coaching is so abysmally bad. I'd fire Patricia, maybe Judge, right now. Let somebody-or-other do the job 'til Josh comes home later this season (heh).

We hear a lot of talk about getting more snazzy playmaker receivers next year. I think our prospects in that position are FAR brighter than our prospects on the O-line, maybe in backups for the D-line. I'd like to see the average weight of draftees next year be right around 300 pounds.

upstater1 said:

I have confidence in wins over the Jets, Cincy and Miami.

All the others I can easily see as losses.

Bills and Minnesota are the hardest 2 left.

9 wins.

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What has LV done that worries you? Patriot fans are going to storm into Vegas that week and negate a lot of their homefield advantage.

I watched all of the Minn/Wash game and the Vikings are not that intimidating. Cousins has his weaknesses, BB eats those types of QB's up 95% of the time. They will be home, so that will help them, but I look at that game as winnable if our running game gets a bit nastier.

Bills will find a way to choke a game away (That's me hoping )

AZ is scary only because of Murray's legs, but their passing O is suspect right now. Our DB's can afford to be a little light on players to provide a spy to Murray. Make them beat us through the air against our stud DB's. If they do, tip your hat and move on to the next week. Very winnable game.

The proper response to winning 4 of 5 is whining and the gnashing of teeth.

Here are the HARD facts.

1. We are entering a very hard part of our schedule.

2. We need to go at LEAST 5-3 over the 2nd half to have a reasonable chance to make the playoffs

3. on PAPER, we are the 4th best team in the AFCE and we have 4 division games left to play. So It's not like its going to be easy

4. There is not a single team left of the schedule who doesn't have the ability to beat us......UNLESS....

Keeping all that in mind the GOOD news is, of the 8 games we have left, we have 6 that I believe we have an even shot at winning, and then there are the 2 against the Bills where we have a Punchers chance to win.

So for the most part (baring catastrophic injuries) we will likely be in 6 one score games. And as in ALL one score games, they will be determined by TO's, mental disciple, and more than a bit of luck.

But here's the thing: In my mind the ONLY chance this team can get to 10-7 is to be the most physical team on the field EACH and every game for the rest of the season. We played one really soft game this year (the Bears) so we saw what can happen when we were soft. Forget about the X's and O's, match ups, and who we are playing. IF we play tough, physical, and smart football then we SHOULD end up in position to win (or lose) the game in the 4th quarter.

Back in 2001 the aspect of the game that made that team a winner was their shear physical DOMINANCE of the other teams they played. IIRC even those teams that BEAT us had a tough time the next week because we just kicked the sh!t out of them for 4 quarters. This team HAS to apply this message. "Come on with all your great skill players and all pros, but win or lose, we are going to make you pay with PAIN."

When you are in that position then you will win your fair share. Hopefully that number will be 5. So here are the games. BTW- remember that due to injuries, any predictions we make now, can look completely different a month from now.

Jets - We have a defense that seems to be getting better. The Jets have a very suspect offense. We both have better than average run games AND better than average DL's. Pretty much an even game that will turn on who makes the fewest mistakes. Home field advantage turns this game - Pats

Vikes - the bad news is that the Vikes are 7-1 and we have to play them ON THE ROAD, on a short week and the overall records of teams that play on the road on a short week is bad. The good news is that historically Bill has a knack of preparing his teams well on short weeks. The Vikings could have lost every game they've won. All were one score games. The fact of the matter is that obviously, they HAVE made the right plays and gotten enough breaks and bounces to WIN all those games. Kudos to them.

This is a game where the offense will need to start to carry the team more than they have. I think the Vikes defense is suspect. So IF they do, I think the Pats will surprise people with a win and the short week will become an advantage. BTW - kudos to old friend Kevin OConnell for the great job he has been doing so far. - Pats

Bills - I'm hopping even though its a home game, we can keep this game competitive and steal it, BUT no one can, at this point, honestly predict a Pats win. Just like no one could predict the Jets beating the Bills last week. - Bills

And THAT's the extent of my prognostications. NOTHING that has happened before this time matters any more. All we need to know is that we are 5-4. That is who we WERE. What happens after this points is fully in the hands of the players and coaches. Ultimately they are capable of winning EVERY game they play, but just as capable of losing them all.

You can't win many games bobby bouching it!

PatsFan2 said:

I hate that we're in the desert back to back and Skippy will be up for it. I remember when he beat us with that Denver Team. Also don't sleep on Burrow and Cincinnati he can light it up. That said the Jets will be looking for revenge in the next game again no easy games.

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The Jets were looking for revenge in the last game. Remember all the talk about they remember the 50something beating last year and they're gonna set things right?

A Defiant Goose said:

The deafening criticism is there because, with the GOAT at head coach, we will always be good enough to beat the bottom dwellers in the NFL. But the offense as it stands right now isn't good enough to hang with the better teams. It's not all doom and gloom, but it isn't sunshine and lollipops either.

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GTFOH with this reasonable ass opinion.

Unless our offensive play calling and execution dramatically improve, I have a hard time seeing us winning more than 8 games. I believe the O/U on the wins for the season was 8.5 which sounds right.

Maybe we can steal one from Buffalo if Allen misses time.

Thanks for this thread, it is good to have a bit of perspective. Going back to the start of the year there were three goals that defined a successful year: 1. introduce a new offense 2. determine if Mac was a franchise QB and 3. build momentum over the course of the year to set the table for being a contender next season. Sneaking into the playoffs was a bit of a stretch given the strength of the competition. The Bills were clearly ahead in the division and the AFC West was stacked.

Special teams and defense are on track for goal 3 and are the reason the team is above .500. Unfortunately goals 1 and 2 are completely in flux. As many posters have already stated getting the OL straightened out is necessary to execute the offense and put Mac in a position to be successful. The game plans, a.k.a. coaching, need more than a good OL. It is interesting that RFK has stopped with his voice of the fan statements about the QB's and WR's. Hopefully this means that BB has gotten him to understand the situation and he is now on board with the direction of the team. Beating the Jets at home will be a good first step and the potential of no Josh Allen opens the door a little more.

40yrpatsfan said:

Let’s look back at the games and opponents so far to better evaluate the 1st half:

• Lost @ Miami, 20-7: now we know they’re one of the best teams in the AFC, plus we never win in Miami in Sept anyway. We played them tough and it came down to 2 key mistakes: Brown blowing a blocking assignment near our own end zone, and Dugger taking the wrong angle on Waddle on a short pass. Also the refs missed a PI in the end zone to Parker.
• Won @ Pitt, 17-14: Steelers aren’t that good, but we won the game we needed, on the road. I’ll take that win any time.
• Lost vs Balt, 37-26: Ravens are one of the best teams in the AFC. This was our best offensive game of the year, Parker was 5 for 168, and we were headed for a probable W with 3 minutes left when Agholor fumbled on the Baltimore 30. Tough loss due to turnovers.
• Lost @ GB, 27-24: Zappe’s first game. We should’ve won had the coaches been more aggressive in OT, 1st and 10 at the 50. Blame this one on the play-calling, though overall they had a good offensive game plan.
• Won vs Det, 29-0: We killed a team that’s not too bad, and Zappe played great.
• Won @ Cle, 38-15: Impressive win won on the road against another team that’s not too bad. Zappe mania.
• Lost vs Chi, 33-14: Chicago & Fields ran all over Miami the other day just like they did to us, so that loss doesn’t look as bad now. Both our QB’s, and the whole offense (and defense), looked miserable.
• Won @ Jets, 22-17: The Jets are no joke, top defense, they just beat Buffalo. In hindsight, a GREAT bounce-back road win, Mac showed great discipline.
• Won vs Indy, 26-3: dominant win against a team with a great D. Did what we had to do.

We’ve won 4 of the past 5, yet the deafening criticism around here and local mediots is incredible.

We now have: Jets at home, @ Minn, Bills at home, @ Ariz, @ LV, Bengals at home, Phins at home, and @ Buf. We’re a tough out, and some of these teams are looking more beatable. We’re gonna win at least 9, maybe 10.

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A Defiant Goose said:

The deafening criticism is there because, with the GOAT at head coach, we will always be good enough to beat the bottom dwellers in the NFL. But the offense as it stands right now isn't good enough to hang with the better teams. It's not all doom and gloom, but it isn't sunshine and lollipops either.

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I'd say there isn't enough evidence to say this, I think it's more people's fear than reality. We played 2 top teams: Miami and Baltimore. We competed really well against them physically, and could have won either game with some breaks. Our talent level is good enough to beat anyone, we just need to get that OL straightened out. We have 8 games left, 4 home 4 away. I love our D, we're a tough out, and even good teams like Buffalo-Cinci-Miami are gonna have a tough time beating us here.

mgteich said:

The proper response to winning 4 of 5 is whining and the gnashing of teeth.

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nah, just perspective will do lol

40yrpatsfan said:

Let’s look back at the games and opponents so far to better evaluate the 1st half:

• Lost @ Miami, 20-7: now we know they’re one of the best teams in the AFC, plus we never win in Miami in Sept anyway. We played them tough and it came down to 2 key mistakes: Brown blowing a blocking assignment near our own end zone, and Dugger taking the wrong angle on Waddle on a short pass. Also the refs missed a PI in the end zone to Parker.
• Won @ Pitt, 17-14: Steelers aren’t that good, but we won the game we needed, on the road. I’ll take that win any time.
• Lost vs Balt, 37-26: Ravens are one of the best teams in the AFC. This was our best offensive game of the year, Parker was 5 for 168, and we were headed for a probable W with 3 minutes left when Agholor fumbled on the Baltimore 30. Tough loss due to turnovers.
• Lost @ GB, 27-24: Zappe’s first game. We should’ve won had the coaches been more aggressive in OT, 1st and 10 at the 50. Blame this one on the play-calling, though overall they had a good offensive game plan.
• Won vs Det, 29-0: We killed a team that’s not too bad, and Zappe played great.
• Won @ Cle, 38-15: Impressive win won on the road against another team that’s not too bad. Zappe mania.
• Lost vs Chi, 33-14: Chicago & Fields ran all over Miami the other day just like they did to us, so that loss doesn’t look as bad now. Both our QB’s, and the whole offense (and defense), looked miserable.
• Won @ Jets, 22-17: The Jets are no joke, top defense, they just beat Buffalo. In hindsight, a GREAT bounce-back road win, Mac showed great discipline.
• Won vs Indy, 26-3: dominant win against a team with a great D. Did what we had to do.

We’ve won 4 of the past 5, yet the deafening criticism around here and local mediots is incredible.

We now have: Jets at home, @ Minn, Bills at home, @ Ariz, @ LV, Bengals at home, Phins at home, and @ Buf. We’re a tough out, and some of these teams are looking more beatable. We’re gonna win at least 9, maybe 10.

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I think the original point that many here made was that the defense would be good and the offense would take time. That's exactly where they are but the injury to Jones may have set them back a bit on offense.

For Bourne to have 14 catches through 9 games is a sin. Sure, he's dropped some and fumbled, but that's probably from being cold and unused. Agholor has 15! They better figure it out today. This offense does not deserve a bye week off.

Calhoun44 said:

What has LV done that worries you? Patriot fans are going to storm into Vegas that week and negate a lot of their homefield advantage.

I watched all of the Minn/Wash game and the Vikings are not that intimidating. Cousins has his weaknesses, BB eats those types of QB's up 95% of the time. They will be home, so that will help them, but I look at that game as winnable if our running game gets a bit nastier.

Bills will find a way to choke a game away (That's me hoping )

AZ is scary only because of Murray's legs, but their passing O is suspect right now. Our DB's can afford to be a little light on players to provide a spy to Murray. Make them beat us through the air against our stud DB's. If they do, tip your hat and move on to the next week. Very winnable game.

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I just said they could be losses. I didn't say they will be.

Obviously, I'm predicting one or two of those games will be wins.

upstater1 said:

I just said they could be losses. I didn't say they will be.

Obviously, I'm predicting one or two of those games will be wins.

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They all could be losses, no gimme's, which will make each game a big game. But otoh we should be competitive in all or almost all of them. That's why I like us at least splitting them.

jdlboot14 said:

For Bourne to have 14 catches through 9 games is a sin. Sure, he's dropped some and fumbled, but that's probably from being cold and unused. Agholor has 15! They better figure it out today. This offense does not deserve a bye week off.

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Agholor is the biggest disappointment what waste of $11Mill Dollars no wonder BB sat on his hands last FA.

40yrpatsfan said:

They all could be losses, no gimme's, which will make each game a big game. But otoh we should be competitive in all or almost all of them. That's why I like us at least splitting them.

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I was just differentiating between the ones I feel are hopeless (Vikings and Bills), the ones that I'm confident about (the 1st 3 I mentioned), and the ones that will be on the difficult side (though I expect to win at least one, if not two).

upstater1 said:

I was just differentiating between the ones I feel are hopeless (Vikings and Bills), the ones that I'm confident about (the 1st 3 I mentioned), and the ones that will be on the difficult side (though I expect to win at least one, if not two).

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The Vikes D seem like they have a another Judon... Za'Darius Smith is so similar.