Mac Jones & the offense: Signs of improvement?

Someone on the radio this week brought up a good point about Jones' arm strength. This person brought up Peyton Manning in Denver after his neck surgeries. When Manning came back and and went to Denver, his arm strength was totally shot and he was was throwing floaters. But he made up for his weak arm strength with accuracy, anticipation, and timing. These are areas where Jones excels at as a rookie. Granted he isnt playing in Denver which helped Manning especially in his last few years.

I think it is overblown how weak his arm is, but he doesn't have the strongest arm. Of course there is a good chance he will get stronger like like Brady did who also didn't have great arm strength his first few years in the league. But there are ways to overcome average arm talent and be a very good or even great QB.

50-yard-line said:

I'll keep Agholor out there and throw deep to him when possible, thank you.

But I agree with your premise: Bourne and Jonnu Smith are two guys who should be getting targets. They can make things happen after the catch. Bourne looks way faster than Meyers with the ball.

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You don't sign guys and dump them. Agholor's numbers aren't terrible this year, but neither are they where you want them - projecting it out after 6 games, he's at 48 catches for 635 yards (13.2/per). It's a small sample size, as well - couple of misses by Jones and that big drop, his only drop, change those numbers considerably, right? Cut him next year and you have $10 million of dead cap.

If that's what you were "wow'ing, I mean.

The other part, I stand by it. I know Smith had that terrible game, sure. **** happens. But watch that 9-yard run last week. He can shed tacklers; he's done it year after year. That's not Henry's game, nor Meyer's game. I might be wrong on Bourne, but he just seems way faster after the catch than most.

venecol said:

So now we have players going rogue on play calls? Bourne says it was a mistake but then says "thought" he could get there faster on the one-step slant. WTF

Another thing, have we ever heard so much commentary coming from these players in the last 20 years? It's baffling how much things have changed.

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It may not be a case of him going rogue per se, but reading the leverage or situation wrong. One of the reasons the system they use is so complicated is because the routes have extra options depending on the leverage of the defenders. He may have read that key wrong (or just different from Mac) and made an adjustment that Mac didn't read. I don't think Bourne is just out there running whatever he wants.

Rob0729 said:

Someone on the radio this week brought up a good point about Jones' arm strength. This person brought up Peyton Manning in Denver after his neck surgeries. When Manning came back and and went to Denver, his arm strength was totally shot and he was was throwing floaters. But he made up for his weak arm strength with accuracy, anticipation, and timing. These are areas where Jones excels at as a rookie. Granted he isnt playing in Denver which helped Manning especially in his last few years.

I think it is overblown how weak his arm is, but he doesn't have the strongest arm. Of course there is a good chance he will get stronger like like Brady did who also didn't have great arm strength his first few years in the league. But there are ways to overcome average arm talent and be a very good or even great QB.

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Arm strength is pretty overrated, what is needed is timing speed. In other words, the throw is there when it needs to be. If its late especially in this offense bad stuff like tips, and balls behind receivers happen and turn into turnovers. The ability to throw 50 yards or 70 yards is a silly media and fan driven thing that barely ever comes up in a game. There are about 20 total passes that are completed over 50 yards in the air in a year for all teams combined. Most passes are 20 yards in, like 70 percent of them, most others are in that 15-20 yard range. If you have the arm to get it to those area's on top, you are fine.

Rob0729 said:

Someone on the radio this week brought up a good point about Jones' arm strength. This person brought up Peyton Manning in Denver after his neck surgeries. When Manning came back and and went to Denver, his arm strength was totally shot and he was was throwing floaters. But he made up for his weak arm strength with accuracy, anticipation, and timing. These are areas where Jones excels at as a rookie. Granted he isnt playing in Denver which helped Manning especially in his last few years.

I think it is overblown how weak his arm is, but he doesn't have the strongest arm. Of course there is a good chance he will get stronger like like Brady did who also didn't have great arm strength his first few years in the league. But there are ways to overcome average arm talent and be a very good or even great QB.

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Arm can get stronger, can’t teach accuracy anticipation or general smarts in playing QB, I’m not worried about his arm strength.

Pats1971 said:

Arm strength is pretty overrated, what is needed is timing speed. In other words, the throw is there when it needs to be. If its late especially in this offense bad stuff like tips, and balls behind receivers happen and turn into turnovers. The ability to throw 50 yards or 70 yards is a silly media and fan driven thing that barely ever comes up in a game. There are about 20 total passes that are completed over 50 yards in the air in a year for all teams combined. Most passes are 20 yards in, like 70 percent of them, most others are in that 15-20 yard range. If you have the arm to get it to those area's on top, you are fine.

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Instead of pulling numbers out of your ass, look them up. You'd be surprised how many 50 plus yards tosses there were last year. Also, there are no QBs, ever, with a YPA over 10, so the "most others are in that 15-20 yard range" is complete fiction.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Why?

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Because the situation is analogous to Manning going to Denver and Gase suddenly becoming the great young OC.

Your turn, who are you going to replace Belichick with? So far not one person who is talking about getting rid of Belichick has been able to answer that. And the ones suggesting “ a young coach” ignore the fact that young coaches arent the ones winning Lombardi’s. Unless you consider Arians, Reid, Carroll, Fox, Pederson, and Payton young?

50-yard-line said:

You don't sign guys and dump them. Agholor's numbers aren't terrible this year, but neither are they where you want them - projecting it out after 6 games, he's at 48 catches for 635 yards (13.2/per). It's a small sample size, as well - couple of misses by Jones and that big drop, his only drop, change those numbers considerably, right? Cut him next year and you have $10 million of dead cap.

If that's what you were "wow'ing, I mean.

The other part, I stand by it. I know Smith had that terrible game, sure. **** happens. But watch that 9-yard run last week. He can shed tacklers; he's done it year after year. That's not Henry's game, nor Meyer's game. I might be wrong on Bourne, but he just seems way faster after the catch than most.

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Bourne us their best WR, they need to get he and Smith more involved in the offense.

Mac Jones as of Today = Chad Pennington-lite, which is mostly due to coaching. Which is a good thing.

Smart, accurate passer. Good IQ and will keep the ship afloat. Right now, won't help you plug many holes tho. Will take the ship as far as it's constructed to go. He's a rookie playing on a very short leash, that's expected.

Some folks thought that this was his ceiling but he's come in and blown my expectations in that regard. Is it underwhelming in the fantasy era? Yes that's fair to say. With most people craving Justin Herbert and Josh Allen's rocket arms - I can see why there's a sense of "meh" with Mac. He has however shown to be able to respond to high pressure situations, take big boy hits and get up, short memory and most importantly win over his teammates. Seeing him shout at his teammates and command the offense at the line are all good things to see, if he's going to be the eventual leader. There's no "Wow!" To those things...you only appreciate them in retrospect.

The offense will (hopefully) improve and the offensive line will galvanize. Pieces will be cut and added over the next few years and I'm confident at some point soon..

We will all be saying "Boy glad we got rid of Nkeal Harry." ..... Oh and also "Mac is destroying them!".

Ivan said:

Because the situation is analogous to Manning going to Denver and Gase suddenly becoming the great young OC.

Your turn, who are you going to replace Belichick with? So far not one person who is talking about getting rid of Belichick has been able to answer that. And the ones suggesting “ a young coach” ignore the fact that young coaches arent the ones winning Lombardi’s. Unless you consider Arians, Reid, Carroll, Fox, Pederson, and Payton young?

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What a strange point. Leftwich and Gase were nothing without their superstar QB! There’s no one who can do things on the level of Belichick, but it’s not fair to being up his .450 record without Brady.

I haven’t been arguing to replace him, yet. First steps would be to make the obvious improvements: hire an experienced person like Ernie Adams to help with the in-game conservative decision making. Hire successful coordinators with different perspectives, especially on offense where the personnel decisions have been a disaster, which ties into an offensive “system” that doesn’t work with these pieces without Brady.

We all want Mac to be THE guy but finding a franchise QB is really REALLY hard. If it wasn't then teams like the Bills wouldn't have been in the wilderness for 18 years until they found theirs.

sb1 said:

We all want Mac to be THE guy but finding a franchise QB is really REALLY hard. If it wasn't then teams like the Bills wouldn't have been in the wilderness for 18 years until they found theirs.

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It does happen that teams do find THE GUY in their first shot. The Packers (Favre to Rodgers) and Colts (Manning to Luck) come to mind. It only took a couple of years for the Chargers to go from Rivers to Herbert who appears to be an upgrade. It only took one season after he left to go from Michael Vick to Matt Ryan in Atlanta. It is rarer, but it happens.

And just because it took a team like the Bills 18 years to get it right doesn't mean that Mac Jones isn't going to become a franchise QB. The Bills have had some horrible head scratching draft picks in the first round at QB (JP Losman, EJ Manuel) and they used several mid or late rounders as starters (Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor). They are a bad example of how it takes so long because virtually everyone outside the Bills' organization knew that Losman and Manuel were going to be busts.

Since Jim Kelly, they have drafted three QBs in the first round - Losman, Manuel, and Allen. The first time they didn't reach to draft a QB in the first round, Allen, it looks like they got a franchise QB.

Rob0729 said:

It does happen that teams do find THE GUY in their first shot. The Packers (Favre to Rodgers) and Colts (Manning to Luck) come to mind. It only took a couple of years for the Chargers to go from Rivers to Herbert who appears to be an upgrade. It only took one season after he left to go from Michael Vick to Matt Ryan in Atlanta. It is rarer, but it happens.

And just because it took a team like the Bills 18 years to get it right doesn't mean that Mac Jones isn't going to become a franchise QB. The Bills have had some horrible head scratching draft picks in the first round at QB (JP Losman, EJ Manuel) and they used several mid or late rounders as starters (Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor). They are a bad example of how it takes so long because virtually everyone outside the Bills' organization knew that Losman and Manuel were going to be busts.

Since Jim Kelly, they have drafted three QBs in the first round - Losman, Manuel, and Allen. The first time they didn't reach to draft a QB in the first round, Allen, it looks like they got a franchise QB.

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It does happen, but not often, and most of the time, its not as good as it was. I think its way to early to assign Mac anything. People want to rush him into top 10, but right now, he is still trying to learn situational football and things like that. There will be a time when we know one way or another. He will either be let go or be asking for a 60 mil a year contract.

Ivan said:

Because the situation is analogous to Manning going to Denver and Gase suddenly becoming the great young OC.

Your turn, who are you going to replace Belichick with? So far not one person who is talking about getting rid of Belichick has been able to answer that. And the ones suggesting “ a young coach” ignore the fact that young coaches arent the ones winning Lombardi’s. Unless you consider Arians, Reid, Carroll, Fox, Pederson, and Payton young?

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I mean thats like saying who are you going to replace Brady with? People leave, Bill will leave and you replace him the best you can. Not sure what you are asking for with your question.

Pats1971 said:

It does happen, but not often, and most of the time, its not as good as it was. I think its way to early to assign Mac anything. People want to rush him into top 10, but right now, he is still trying to learn situational football and things like that. There will be a time when we know one way or another. He will either be let go or be asking for a 60 mil a year contract.

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The odds of Jones being as good as Brady are astronomical against it. So I think it is safe to say it won't be as good as it was.

But I don't see anyone saying he is in the top ten. People are just encouraged what we have seen thus far. In some ways, he has exceeded even some of the most optimistic expectations of the guy in his first season. But that doesn't mean people are anointing him a top QB in the league.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

What a strange point. Leftwich and Gase were nothing without their superstar QB! There’s no one who can do things on the level of Belichick, but it’s not fair to being up his .450 record without Brady.

I haven’t been arguing to replace him, yet. First steps would be to make the obvious improvements: hire an experienced person like Ernie Adams to help with the in-game conservative decision making. Hire successful coordinators with different perspectives, especially on offense where the personnel decisions have been a disaster, which ties into an offensive “system” that doesn’t work with these pieces without Brady.

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You asked why I made the analogy, I answered, nothing strange about it. Leftwich could end up being a good OC but the only reason he would be hot right now is Brady joining Tampa Bay, which was the case with Gase, who sucks.

And you are clearly one of those talking about getting rid of Belichick, whether you are ready to pull the plug right now or not asking who you would replace him with is fair game, yet like every other person who goes down that road you draw a blank when asked who you would replace him with.

As for the other topics you brought up they are interesting questions, but I think as far as staffing, like the roster Belichick is grooming younger assistants because his long term staff are slowly retiring. Ultimately I think we look at this completely different, I see this as a rebuild for the long term future of the franchise, and you seem more fixed on today, and this season.

Ivan said:

You asked why I made the analogy, I answered, nothing strange about it. Leftwich could end up being a good OC but the only reason he would be hot right now is Brady joining Tampa Bay, which was the case with Gase, who sucks.

And you are clearly one of those talking about getting rid of Belichick, whether you are ready to pull the plug right now or not asking who you would replace him with is fair game, yet like every other person who goes down that road you draw a blank when asked who you would replace him with.

As for the other topics you brought up they are interesting questions, but I think as far as staffing, like the roster Belichick is grooming younger assistants because his long term staff are slowly retiring. Ultimately I think we look at this completely different, I see this as a rebuild for the long term future of the franchise, and you seem more fixed on today, and this season.

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I look at the decision making process. This season is the result of a handful of bad decisions in the past and present. If you saw this as a long term rebuild, why aren’t you very concerned that the team has very few pieces to start a long-term rebuild?

That’s what I’ve been arguing the whole time…it isn’t about this season. I don’t expect winning seasons every year. But Belichick has clearly and undeniably built the team in an attempt to win-now, just like in 2020, and is failing. You can whitewash it all you want, move the goalposts, revise history, but you know damn well that the team in 2020 was built to win in 2020 and made zero moves to improve for the future, and this 2021 squad is the same other than a rookie quarterback. The roster is primarily built with aging veterans and high priced free agents.

I’m glad they got Jones, but other than the QB this team has very little “future star“ potential and no additional draft capital, and now they have some huge cap hits coming due for the next 2-3 years.

Pats1971 said:

I mean thats like saying who are you going to replace Brady with? People leave, Bill will leave and you replace him the best you can. Not sure what you are asking for with your question.

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Actually it’s the opposite of replacing a player. Coaches are replaced by established coaches, coordinators, assistant coaches and college coaches and their staff. Franchise QB’s are usually replaced short term with whatever veteran they can get to fill the role until the team can fin one in future drafts, which are generally unknowns until their draft year, and then it comes down to whether you can beat 31 other teams to them. So it isn’t analogous in any way, and once again you demonstrate the inability to name the person you want to replace Belichick, which you are clearly calling for.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

I look at the decision making process. This season is the result of a handful of bad decisions in the past and present. If you saw this as a long term rebuild, why aren’t you very concerned that the team has very few pieces to start a long-term rebuild?

That’s what I’ve been arguing the whole time…it isn’t about this season. I don’t expect winning seasons every year. But Belichick has clearly and undeniably built the team in an attempt to win-now, just like in 2020, and is failing. You can whitewash it all you want, move the goalposts, revise history, but you know damn well that the team in 2020 was built to win in 2020 and made zero moves to improve for the future, and this 2021 squad is the same other than a rookie quarterback. The roster is primarily built with aging veterans and high priced free agents.

I’m glad they got Jones, but other than the QB this team has very little “future star“ potential and no additional draft capital, and now they have some huge cap hits coming due for the next 2-3 years.

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I disagree with your premise, going into the season they had a number of positions that looked solid for the future, and it looks like they have their QB, which is the most important piece. I still think they have a lot of work to do but I think they have the nucleus of what could become a very good team for the future. They are going to have to replace some really good players going forward but that’s always the case.

Ivan said:

Actually it’s the opposite of replacing a player. Coaches are replaced by established coaches, coordinators, assistant coaches and college coaches and their staff. Franchise QB’s are usually replaced short term with whatever veteran they can get to fill the role until the team can fin one in future drafts, which are generally unknowns until their draft year, and then it comes down to whether you can beat 31 other teams to them. So it isn’t analogous in any way, and once again you demonstrate the inability to name the person you want to replace Belichick, which you are clearly calling for.

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If Belichick retired tomorrow, who would you want to replace him with? Just curious because you keep asking the question. And you make a good point that the grass isn’t necessarily greener.

I honestly can’t tell you because I haven’t gotten that far mentally. It’s one thing to criticize the job a guy is doing and another to consider an alternative who might be better but also might be worse.

I believe coaching is generally overrated. It’s only because the team isn’t doing well that in-game decisions stand out so much. I’d be a lot more interested in getting a new GM, scouting person, and again, coordinators, who can come in with outside ideas and challenge Bill.