This will be a good one. Two closely matched teams in normal circumstances. Right now I really like the Patriots.
QB: Mac < Tua (for now). I think the difference in play here will decide things. How close can the rookie close the gap, or can he actually have a better day? I wouldn't expect it start 1, but it would certainly make things tough on Miami
RB: Pats Core >> Dolphins Core - Gaskin and Ahmed aren't bad, but they aren't a special duo. Gaskin can do a bit of everything so we need to be ready for anything when he's on the field. But the Pats win here in both top liners and depth.
WR: Pats Core > Dolphins Core - This would easily be the Dolphins if they had Fuller. Right now they are hurting. They have the best WR in Parker but not much else after him yet. Waddle in his first NFL start probably won't be a huge factor, next time they play though look out. One of the rare times I expect the Pats have the WR edge.
TE: Pats Core > Dolphins - Gesicki is a good TE. But he can't equal both Smith and Henry.
OL: Pats >> Dolphins - There won't be many times this year that the Pats don't win this match up if they stay healthy. Simply put. One of their better OL men from last year is now a back up for us (Karras). They also lost Ereck Flowers and have a lot of young guys trying to work their way in. Their OL is going through a bit of a transition right now as far as I know and it should have some issues.
The Pats on paper should be fielding a much better offense than Miami, the question is can their rookie QB take advantage?
DL Pats Core < Dolphins Core - The Pats did well adding to this group, but it still isn't the strength we'd like it to be, but it will be improved for sure. The Dolphins have the potential makings of a very good core going forward. Davis in his 2nd year could be very interesting. They also may have found something with Sieler. But in the end the foundation is Wilkins an Ogbah.
LB Pats Core >>> Dolphins Core - Simply put, the Dolphins lost their best LB and we signed him. Add in Judon and Hightower and this isn't even close. I had to look up the names of their LBs. A fair amount of former Pats cast offs and some guys I don't know. A tiny bit of digging didn't change my mind much. This egde is absolutely staggering. Not even on the same planet.
CB Pats Core < Dolphins Core - With no Gilmore this is an easy Dolphins win. They added the still fairly capable Jason McCourty for barely anything, a crime we didn't resign him for that contract looking at it now. Byron Jones has lost some luster from when he was one of the best young CBs in the league, but the dude can still ball and is among the better starting outside guys for sure. Add in their headliner Howards and some potentially nice depth and they look very solid here.
S Pats Core > Dolphins Core. The Dolphins lost their top Safety Bobby McCain and did nothing to replace him. It feels like they are hoping young unproven guys step up. IDK, You tell me if you know something i don't. Try transitioned Eric Rowe here who is okay, but not much behind him.
Looking at this game now, I'm surprised it ONLY has a 3 point spread. The Patriots have the much better 2-53 man roster. And the Dolphins QB situation doesn't give me much hope that any difference there can overcome that. Bottom line IMO. If Mac Jones plays it relatively safe and doesn't allow a pick 6 to Howard or we have a bunch of fumbles/penalties. I don't see how this game is all that close right now.
Pats 24 Dolphins 16
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