Part of the problem is that not only don’t we have the data to prove you correct, how do we even define the argument? Like, are we saying Brady wouldn’t have won a SuperBowl in 2001 if he had played in 2000? Or are we saying that he wouldn’t have won it in 2000? Because no crap, he wasn’t winning it in 2000 with the Patriots. No one could have gotten that ship pointed in the right direction. And no one could possibly know if he still would have won in 2001 if he played in 2000. These are purely hypothetical arguments.
Are we saying Peyton Manning would have won more if he hadn’t played his rookie year? Like, how could we ever know that? It seemed like Corey Dillon running all over their defense was a bigger hindrance than whatever happened in Peyton’s rookie season.
I understand that Brady,etc. say it was good for them to sit. I just don’t know what that means in terms of their future success or the success of their teams.
Exactly...the main issue here is that the draft itself is unpredictable. So, it's not like we have any type of certainty that these guys "would have" turned out differently if they'd been drafted by other teams, sat a year, etc.
We could try to find similar groupings and say, hey, let's look at these 20 top-ten quarterbacks from 2005-15, assign variables for playing time in year one, and try to correlate it. Problem is, you probably only have a handful of players who actually developed into an ideal quarterback, and the results are likely to be random with that type of small size.
And it's difficult to draw historical comparisons...sure, it would result in a larger pool of QBs being measured, but the times really have changed when it comes to QBs coming out of college, knowing pro-style offenses, film breakdown, nutrition, etc.
Which is why we see arguments about 3-4 quarterbacks being rested in year 1, or starting in year 1, and both groups could really prove the point. There simply isn't enough data here, and there probably won't be. It's really left to reasoning based on individual situations. There's absolutey a legit case that some QBs are ruined due to being started too soon and lose their confidence; there's absolutey a legit case that some are not ruined by that either.
We just have to look at Mac and assume common sense is being applied; something tells me the Patriots understand both sides of the argument too.