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Julio Jones (June 6 Update - Traded to the Titans)


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???


Moss' game was predicated on his almost supernatural deep speed. So it's not surprising that, when he lost that second step, his game went into significant decline after 2009 (age 32). But,

Marvin Harrison:

View attachment 33293

So using Marvin Harrison as the template, we get two-three years out of Jones before he hits the age wall (Julio Jones was born in February while Harrison was born in August in the 2014 season). So Jones will be six months older than Harrison was at the start of the . So we might only get one as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. You cannot expect the Pats to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender if Mac Jones is a first year starter next year.

Again, it is a risk.
 
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I guess we can now officially say Belichick was right in advising Dimitroff to not give up so much to move up to draft Jones. They never won consistently with him and Dimitroff’s successor ended up shipping him off for a draft pick most likely to be in the 50-60 range. Maybe, just maybe, this Belichick guy, while not perfect as some here think, actually has a clue.

It will also be shown true that Bill was right in not shipping off a 2nd for a 32 year old receiver with mounting injury issues who thinks he’s worth every one of the $15.3 million dollars his contract calls for him to be paid this season. Good luck Titans. Jon Robinson is the leader in the clubhouse to be the next former Patriot executive to be fired.
i also think it is a philosophy thing between the Pats and Titans. BB and the Patriots have always been geared toward the future. Winning now, without mortgaging the future. Titans look like they are trying to win now and will try to figure it out in later years. I like our model better
 
If they stay healthy and a QB emerges they’re a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

The second part is a huge if. I cannot see Cam being good enough and Mac Jones would have to be pretty damn special to make this team a Super Bowl contender.
 
The second part is a huge if. I cannot see Cam being good enough and Mac Jones would have to be pretty damn special to make this team a Super Bowl contender.
It's a team game.

 
It's a team game.



But the NFL is a QB driven league now. All of the teams in the Conference Championships last year had great QBs under center (at least great for last year).
 
So using Marvin Harrison as the template, we get two-three years out of Jones before he hits the age wall (Julio Jones was born in February while Harrison was born in August in the 2014 season). So Jones will be six months older than Harrison was at the start of the . So we might only get one as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. You cannot expect the Pats to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender if Mac Jones is a first year starter next year.

Again, it is a risk.
Waking up in the morning, and leaving your bed, is a risk. Using Marvin Harrison as an example of early 30's decline was an error.
 
There's no denying that Jones is at or approaching the WR cliff age, which is concerning...but his production last year when healthy did not drop off. He was injured, and the question is whether it's a sign of deline or a just a normal, recoverable injury. A lot of WRs fall off a cliff around this age but not all of them, and he is so talented that you'd think even a step down, or two, would still put him near pro bowl level.

But I'd rather take a gamble that Jones can retain his level of play than spend a similar amount of money on players who aren't capable of getting to that level to begin with.
 
i also think it is a philosophy thing between the Pats and Titans. BB and the Patriots have always been geared toward the future. Winning now, without mortgaging the future. Titans look like they are trying to win now and will try to figure it out in later years. I like our model better
It's an interesting aspect of the NFL that it only takes two teams to make a market and it seems there's always one or two teams willing to go all in on the next season. Some times it is that the team really is close to winning and just needs one player to put them over the top (IMO Tampa in 2020) and often it is a GM trying to save his job (IMO TEN in 2021).
 
There's no denying that Jones is at or approaching the WR cliff age, which is concerning...but his production last year when healthy did not drop off. He was injured, and the question is whether it's a sign of deline or a just a normal, recoverable injury. A lot of WRs fall off a cliff around this age but not all of them, and he is so talented that you'd think even a step down, or two, would still put him near pro bowl level.

But I'd rather take a gamble that Jones can retain his level of play than spend a similar amount of money on players who aren't capable of getting to that level to begin with.
You take the gamble if you think Julio Jones is going to put you over the top.

So if Brady was still QB getting Jones would be smart.

If your QB is a washed up veteran or a rookie you don't take that gamble.

Antonio Brown in 2019 is an example of this. Slightly younger, but a lot crazier.
 
You take the gamble if you think Julio Jones is going to put you over the top.

So if Brady was still QB getting Jones would be smart.

If your QB is a washed up veteran or a rookie you don't take that gamble.

Antonio Brown in 2019 is an example of this. Slightly younger, but a lot crazier.
Using that logic, the Patriots shouldn't have spent a dime in free agency.
 
Using that logic, the Patriots shouldn't have spent a dime in free agency.
Not really.

The Patriots spent money on younger players that can help them for years.

If you are planning to develop a quarterback you have to give him someone to throw to... unless you want to be the Jets :D
 
Let's imagine that Mike Vrabel was the generational, hoodie-wearing genius coach/personnel influencer and Bill Belichick were the big, lumbering linebacker jock. What would the storyline be, if it weren't for reputation, based on these moves:

-Mike Vrabel declined to extend Jonnu Smith, a role player who never secured more than 500 receiving yards, and he declined to match an offer from the Patriots, who made a very aggressive, over-the-top offer of $12.5M for a player who has never been among the best at his position and not even the best on his team. Since the Titans patiently kept that money for other uses, they were able to take on the contract of Julio Jones, a sure-fire Hall of Fame player and All-Decade WR, whose trade market and salary were low and affordable.

-Bill Belichick broke the bank for numerous non-star players at the skill positions, hoping to rebuild through free agency, including the big contract for Smith. Later, the Patriots were interested in acquiring Julio Jones, who would have been far and away the best player of their offseason and vastly improved the passing game, but they were unwilling to part with a second round pick and specifically were concerned about Jones's $15M salary, which wasn't close to the biggest cap hits among elite wide receivers and would have been a bit more than what they paid for Alghohor, Henry, and Smith.

Someone will have to explain why these narratives are false...or at the beginning of the offseason would any of you, with a straight face, have picked any of these good-not-great players over Julio Jones? I don't think so, though I'm sure the revisionist takes would be comical.
 
Was really looking forward to potential 12 looks... I would live out of it.

Jones/Agholor wide - Henry inline, Smith detached or slot.

Jones/Henry wide, Bourne or Myers/Smith double slot.

Agholor wide, Jones/Henry double slot, Smith inline

It's not a killer for us but I do believe he would have really elevated and had big trickle down effect for everyone else.

I don't know the finer points and Xs Os like you, but this was my point even before the Julio Jones talk began. The Patriots have assembled a great offense...as soon as they can find that stud player who can provide that trickle down effect. Algohor is a perfect #2 receiver, kind of like Donte Stallworth in 2007. Meyers is a slippery guy who can get open and would excel with teams worrying about Jones/Algohor. Now add in those two pretty good tight ends, and it's a big problem for defenses. But without that stud player, it's like every guy in the offense is being placed in a role that's a little bit more than he's shown capabable of doing well. They'll be okay but nothing special.

Again, I think it's baffling how people just watched the Gronkowski effect and to some degree the Edelman effect and still aren't understanding this. Maybe it's because those guys weren't traditional receivers like Jones, but it doesn't matter. Great players allow you to be so much more flexible and cover up the defiiciencies of other guys out there.
 
Let's imagine that Mike Vrabel was the generational, hoodie-wearing genius coach/personnel influencer and Bill Belichick were the big, lumbering linebacker jock. What would the storyline be, if it weren't for reputation, based on these moves:

-Mike Vrabel declined to extend Jonnu Smith, a role player who never secured more than 500 receiving yards, and he declined to match an offer from the Patriots, who made a very aggressive, over-the-top offer of $12.5M for a player who has never been among the best at his position and not even the best on his team. Since the Titans patiently kept that money for other uses, they were able to take on the contract of Julio Jones, a sure-fire Hall of Fame player and All-Decade WR, whose trade market and salary were low and affordable.

-Bill Belichick broke the bank for numerous non-star players at the skill positions, hoping to rebuild through free agency, including the big contract for Smith. Later, the Patriots were interested in acquiring Julio Jones, who would have been far and away the best player of their offseason and vastly improved the passing game, but they were unwilling to part with a second round pick and specifically were concerned about Jones's $15M salary, which wasn't close to the biggest cap hits among elite wide receivers and would have been a bit more than what they paid for Alghohor, Henry, and Smith.

Someone will have to explain why these narratives are false...or at the beginning of the offseason would any of you, with a straight face, have picked any of these good-not-great players over Julio Jones? I don't think so, though I'm sure the revisionist takes would be comical.
Because Bill is smart enough to seek more than instance gratification, looks at the long term picture and knows that Smith and Henry (combined cap charge of 12.4 million this year) are entering their primes and will likely be more impactful than Julio would have been over that same time period, and possible as soon as 2021.
 
Great players allow you to be so much more flexible and cover up the defiiciencies of other guys out there.
Great players that you only know are great in your system after development time and integration (Gronk and Edelman). Neither were free agent signees. It is never a given that X player will be or remain great given the variables of age, injury, system, etc that are outside the control of the team and as such are really not good comparable to the in-house developed payers you cited. Ochocinco is probably the only close comparable and even that isn't a true" one for one.
 
Because Bill is smart enough to seek more than instance gratification, looks at the long term picture and knows that Smith and Henry (combined cap charge of 12.4 million this year) are entering their primes and will likely be more impactful than Julio would have been over that same time period, and possible as soon as 2021.
Agreed, the narrative only holds water if you assume Jones is not going to get worse and Smith and Henry are not going to get better. Take Jones out of the pass happy system with Matt Ryan and put him into our ground and pound team with Cam still projected as #1 QB and it's even going to be worse. We took the players we thought fit our system best, we won't be a big play offense this season so we're better off doing what we did and leaving ourselves cap room for next year as well.
 
Not really.

The Patriots spent money on younger players that can help them for years.

Not really. They spent money on deals that are realistically only 2-3 years long.

If you are planning to develop a quarterback you have to give him someone to throw to... unless you want to be the Jets :D

And that brings us back to signing Julio.
 
It is never a given that X player will be or remain great given the variables of age, injury, system, etc that are outside the control of the team and as such are really not good comparable to the in-house developed payers you cited.


You know that's a non-point, right? I mean, just with the Patriots, we've got plenty of examples to show both that in house is not a given and that externals can work amazingly well.
 
 
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