2021 Schedule Notes & Record Predictions

First impressions:
- very late bye week
- relatively soft start (3/4 home games and Fins and Jets to open) Bucs will provide a does of reality
- 1st half might be a smoke screen like in 2019. 2nd half will be break our hearts again
- this year is all about when to pull Cam and go with Mac.
- Soonest is week 7 vs. Jets
- Practical is after the bye at Colts (Brady's first start was at IND)

My prediction: 9-8 (no matter who plays QB)

If we’re gonna be as good as we hope with the offseason moves, this schedule sets up well for us. Given our tendency to get better as the season goes we can hopefully still manage a good record while tuning up in the first half. Be playing our best ball by November where we get the bigger tests aside from tb early.

With the 17 game schedule how is it determined who gets the extra home games? Pats have 9 home games vs 8 road games. Seems kinda unfair to have some teams have an extra home game vs an extra road game.

Boomer B said:

With the 17 game schedule how is it determined who gets the extra home games? Pats have 9 home games vs 8 road games. Seems kinda unfair to have some teams have an extra home game vs an extra road game.

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Was gonna ask the same question. Unbalanced schedule is not good for competative balance.

Schedule at a glance doesn't look terribly difficult but the Pats play the most teams off of a bye in the NFL this year.

From Brian Burke:

I think these are the most important charts regarding scheduling--net rest differences. In other words, how many days rest does a team get vs its opponents in each week across the season. It's been shown to be a measurable factor in win probability. https://t.co/dtwjLXh1ZW

Boomer B said:

With the 17 game schedule how is it determined who gets the extra home games? Pats have 9 home games vs 8 road games. Seems kinda unfair to have some teams have an extra home game vs an extra road game.

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denverpatsfan said:

Was gonna ask the same question. Unbalanced schedule is not good for competative balance.

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The 17th game is AFC vs NFC, and every AFC team has the home game this year; next year NFC will have it. About as fair as you can get from a competitive balance perspective.

jdlboot14 said:

First impressions:
- very late bye week
- relatively soft start (3/4 home games and Fins and Jets to open) Bucs will provide a does of reality
- 1st half might be a smoke screen like in 2019. 2nd half will be break our hearts again
- this year is all about when to pull Cam and go with Mac.
- Soonest is week 7 vs. Jets
- Practical is after the bye at Colts (Brady's first start was at IND)

My prediction: 9-8 (no matter who plays QB)

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The only way Cam is coming out is if he is hurt or if he is stinking up the joint AND the Pats are losing. If he is playing poorly and the Pats are, lets say, 6-2, he's the starter. And even if he is pulled, there is no guarantee that Jones will be the replacement. Nobody is handing him a job. He will have to be significantly better than Stidham to get that job. Not saying I agree with it, it's just how Bill operates. What do you want to bet Jones is third on the depth chart all season and doesn't even dress?

Hammer of Thor said:

The 17th game is AFC vs NFC, and every AFC team has the home game this year; next year NFC will have it. About as fair as you can get from a competitive balance perspective.

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What about fairness for draft order in any given year?

Cam2HarryGOAT said:

The only way Cam is coming out is if he is hurt or if he is stinking up the joint AND the Pats are losing. If he is playing poorly and the Pats are, lets say, 6-2, he's the starter. And even if he is pulled, there is no guarantee that Jones will be the replacement. Nobody is handing him a job. He will have to be significantly better than Stidham to get that job. Not saying I agree with it, it's just how Bill operates. What do you want to bet Jones is third on the depth chart all season and doesn't even dress?

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Which are both realistic possibilities of him getting hurt or straight sucking.

Thoughts:

1.) Only two home games vs. the Browns and Titans from October 24th to December 26th. Gonna be a long stretch there. Even there is a Thursday nighter @ATL following the Browns game...ouch.

2.) Week 14 BYE. If Cam's shoulder breaks down...I think week 15 is Mac time....possibly to salvage our season.

3.) If we start out 2-0 in the AFC East....I love our chances with a warm game in South Beach in week 18 and the Jets at Gillette in week 7. We could be 3-0 in the division going into week 13's MNF @ Buffalo....

4.) The MNF'er @ Buffalo just before our BYE is gonna be a tough one....our guys will be worn down from 13 weeks of non-stop football....hope the mini-BYE after Atlanta helps us.....

I'm feeling 9-8 too, but a lot of my game picks could have gone either way.

Brick27 said:

What about fairness for draft order in any given year?

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Good point, but neither the owners nor players are concerned about that. It's all about more Benjamins in the portfolio of each of those two groups.

We already learned that integrity and fairness were irrelevant when 345 Park Avenue was delivered the facts of the Ideal Gas Law.

At least this is far less egregious than what Philadelphia did in week 17 last year at QB, or Indy infamously sucking for Luck.

On the other hand if the NFL is going to go to a 17 game season, what else could they do to make it fair? Over the long run it should theoretically (somewhat) work itself out.

At least 11-6 all day long.

8/9 wins. On the bubble of the playoffs. With 6 teams I’d say no but 7 teams maybe. Should contend for the playoffs later than we did last year at least.

My expectations aren’t that high but I think next season if all goes well is where the Pats can win the division and make a playoff run.

20-0

Brick27 said:

What about fairness for draft order in any given year?

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It might unbalance things slightly. What would help is if the first tie breaker for those picks was who had the extra home game. If you're basing it purely on "who was worse" then a 2-14 who played 9 home games should get the #1 pick over a 2-14 team that had 9 road games.

Another option would be an idea I've had for a while now, which is you slot the draft picks based on how early a team has been eliminated from playoff contention. So as soon as they're mathematically out of it, their draft slot is secured. This would account for differences in home games between the conferences, because you'd only be eliminated compared to teams playing the same balance of schedule.

As for the schedule itself, there's a few shoes that need to drop before I can really get my head around a prediction. Is New Orleans still a top NFC team without Brees? Does Houston have Watson for our matchup (or at all)? Lots of things can sway a strength of schedule in either direction, but looking at it today this is a pretty easy one. Our toughest road game is @Indy coming off a bye week, or @LAC assuming Herbert and that team take a step forward. Other than that, all our tough (non-division) opponents are coming to Foxboro. For as rough as last season was, the Pats were 5-3 at home. It's still an advantage there.

I'm going to guess 10-7 or 11-6 and a wildcard spot IF the QB situation is improved. If not, then I'd say around 8 wins and on the outside looking in.

Hammer of Thor said:

The 17th game is AFC vs NFC, and every AFC team has the home game this year; next year NFC will have it. About as fair as you can get from a competitive balance perspective.

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I thought goodell just wanted to be nice and give us sth back after he f*cked us multiple times

I expect their defense to be much better than it was last season but without knowing how Newton will play, or how long Belichick will stick with him it’s really hard to predict how the season will go. If it’s the Newton from the second half of 2020 and Belichick sticks with him past the mid season mark then it’s hard to see them making the playoffs.