If We Pick At 15

1960Pats said:

I have two questions if you don't mind.
1 - Who's the last starting QB we've had who's been as bad as Netwon?
2 - What makes Newton immune from criticism?

As for the thread topic, if we keep our pick at 15 I say BPA, which is always my choice.

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1. We've only had two who played in a comparable game. Anyone prior to Bledsoe was doing a significantly different job.
2. Nothing. I'm objecting to constant, entitled, underinformed, whiney attacks by a small number of posters.

I think we'll see a much better year from Newton in '21, and I think Belichick is counting on it.

But none of us really knows anything, because that requires a relationship with the Patriots organization that would preclude a poster from participating here. And that's fine, because its just sports.

1960Pats said:

Why don't you name the people who wanted to keep JG and let Brady go. If there's so many of them it should be easy.

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I argued with Quantum about t at length, and he’s not a hater and is someone I respect a great deal, you are welcome to go back and revisit those threads if you want, I don’t have the time for it. The haters in this forum are pretty clear to everyone, as they are never happy no matter how much success the team has. And if you don’t like what I have to say feel free to put me on ignore, I don’t give a sh.t if you like it or not.

Ring 6 said:

Draft chart says 15 + next years 1 plus 2 4ths gets the patriots the #4 from Atlanta according to Breer. This would be a no brainer.

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If they like the 4th guy and that's correct, pull that trigger immediately, I agree.

Ring 6 said:

Draft chart says 15 + next years 1 plus 2 4ths gets the patriots the #4 from Atlanta according to Breer. This would be a no brainer.

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It took the Niners two future firsts and a future third just to jump up from 12 to 3. It’s going to take more than one future first and a couple of 4ths to make the even bigger jump from 15 to 4. It would be a no-brainer yes but it’s not realistic.

Lansdowne said:

It took the Niners two future firsts and a future third just to jump up from 12 to 3. It’s going to take more than one future first and a couple of 4ths to make the even bigger jump from 15 to 4. It would be a no-brainer yes but it’s not realistic.

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It takes whatever the market is.
As Breer pointed out 4 has a lot less bargaining power than 3 because at 3 you have the choice of fields, Jones or Lance and at 4 you don’t.
Is that difference a 1 two years removed? It may be.

And it’s hard to call it unrealistic when it comes from Breer quoting the trade chart. I guess you could question his math, but it looked right to me.

Ring 6 said:

It takes whatever the market is.
As Breer pointed out 4 has a lot less bargaining power than 3 because at 3 you have the choice of fields, Jones or Lance and at 4 you don’t.
Is that difference a 1 two years removed? It may be.

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Right. But there’s a market for landing those QB’s, whichever may fall to 4. If a team out there wants any of the three regardless of who drops, it’s a guarantee. Also possible a team wants Pitts at that spot. Probably more likely a trade is made on draft day after seeing who the Niners take, I just don’t see a 1st and two 4ths being enough when the Dolphins/Niners deal set the market for those chasing after the marquee QB prospects.

Lansdowne said:

Right. But there’s a market for landing those QB’s, whichever may fall to 4. If a team out there wants any of the three regardless of who drops, it’s a guarantee. Also possible a team wants Pitts at that spot. Probably more likely a trade is made on draft day after seeing who the Niners take, I just don’t see a 1st and two 4ths being enough when the Dolphins/Niners deal set the market for those chasing after the marquee QB prospects.

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The 9ers trade was an overpay based upon the chart. Overpaying doesn’t set the market. Atlanta doesn’t require more to trade their pick because of what SF was willing to pay a month early.
If Atlanta wants to move down (which they should) they aren’t going to reject a good deal because Miami got more for 3. It just doesn’t work that way. If SF wasn’t willing to overpay Miami would not have gotten that much from another team, that’s what the chart determines.

There is a major difference to many teams to have their choice of fields, Jones and Lance as opposed to planning on getting your second choice. Atlanta doesn’t know who your first choice is, but they do know SF can take it.

As I said the difference in that could very well be a 2 year removed 1st, or in other words SF only wants one of the 3 (or at least wants one much more) so they threw in the 2023 1 to get to 3 instead of 12, 2022 1 and a 3 that could have gotten them #4.

Ring 6 said:

You are saying do not get the qb this year, a banner year for QBs in the draft. Why would you get one next year?

Your plan appears to be QuaRteRbAcKzZZ aRe ToO EXpEnsIve so you want to just grab a bunch of crappy ones.
That will get us nowhere.

There is no need to “win an argument” that you need a qb to win in the nfl and cam Newton sucks because they are self evident.

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"QuaRteRbAcKzZZ aRe ToO EXpEnsIve"

Are you five years old?

Trading the farm for the fourth least wanted QB is gambling at best. It's Jetsy as hell. It's straight up dumb.

The Pats need two QBs. Unless you want to keep Hoyer and Stidham. Grab two without trading the farm and maybe you'll catch lightning in a bottle, or maybe get a viable QB 2 or nothing. Use the 15th for the BPA. Your team gets better.

"Banner year for QBs" ??

That statement falls in line with the likes of "this baby is in mint condition", "only highway miles" or "driven by a grandmother". You don't know how any of those QBs are going to turn out but even worse you're willing to bet the next three seasons or more on a wish that the fourth least wanted QB will become a franchise QB. Unbelievable.

It's not a banner year. It's just another year. There will always be QBs available during the next draft believe it or not. And BB will be able to move up to get one without spending the farm.

Your plan is a shot in the dark during a QB frenzy, in which the cost to move up is historically high and if you miss you won't be able to take another shot for three plus seasons. Ridiculous plan.

My plan Is to take a shot at a QB every season and still get to use my Ring rescued resources to improve the team. Great Plan.

Bill Lee said:

Then the question becomes "does BB think the 5th QB is better than the other players available at #15, or the picks you can get in trade for #15" and I think the answer to that is no. BB's more likely to trade down and pick the 8th best QB in the second or third rounds, or just use our 2nd or 3rd for a QB and pick a non-QB blue chipper at #15.

IMO, odds are only 10% that BB will take a QB at #15, i.e. 9 to 1 against picking a QB. I think most media members feel the same way, but that doesn't generate clicks, so they keep sexing up the QB angle.

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In general I agree with this, but if Jones falls past Denver at 9 then I'd see us selecting him either at 15 or in the 10-14 range via an inexpensive trade up. The same goes for Lance. I'm less informed on Fields. It's not a foregone conclusion that all 5 (or even 4) of these guys are going in the top 9. But if the ones that he thinks are 1st rounders are gone by #9 , he'll pass and take a chance on Mond or Mills in rounds 2 or 3, he's not gonna do a panic buy that requires sacrificing a 2022 1st.

Belichick isn't nearly as stressed about QB as fans are. If one falls to him, then yeah he'd make the pick. But he's got a seasoned vet who's poised to have a comeback season, a 3rd year guy who's also likely to make a big leap up, and an imposing running/TE attack shaping up. He may instead have his eyes on a Waddle, Horn, Parsons or Paye, or be prepared to move down a few spots, pick up a mid-3rd, and maybe try to move back up from 46 to the high 30's. There's also Jimmy G looming out there. One thing we can be pretty sure about is that on draft day he'll make some moves around the board.

"Whether the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, nab one of the top remaining wide receivers or choose to further bolster their secondary by selecting a cornerback, they’d be hard-pressed to come out of the first round as losers.

While that’s all well and good, there’s a discussion to be had in terms of how the Pats should approach the rest of the draft. After all, their track record in the first round over the last seven years is so bad that it’s almost impressive, if that makes any sense. But guess what? The same goes for the second round."

The #Patriots last 7 drafts:
– 1 All-Pro and 1 Pro Bowler: their punter, Jake Bailey
– 7 second-round picks: 0 have been full-time starters for even one season
– have drafted 3 second-round corners in the past 7 years- combined, they have started just 3 games
— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) April 8, 2021

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Maybe it's time to try something crazy in this draft? This is a pathetic record to say the least!

DarrylS said:

The problem with BPA is it's inherent subjectivity, one GM's BPA is another GM's dud.

This is one year that the Pats need to be all in and get one of the top 5 QB's... they need to defy their traditions. If they stay at 15 and draft a player who does not start game #1, then there will be the predictable whining about BB & crew's draft prowess, again and over and over and over again. Not sure I can go through another 500+ threads on the sky is falling or the game has passed BB by..

BB play all your cards, get what this team needs and shut everyone up once an for all.

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I hear you. But I think the 4th or 5th best QB is very risky , not a sure thing, and not worth giving away a lot of picks for. Compare this with taking the best player or 2nd best player at LB, CB, or OLine. I'd rather get a stud best at their position.

zipster9 said:

"Whether the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, nab one of the top remaining wide receivers or choose to further bolster their secondary by selecting a cornerback, they’d be hard-pressed to come out of the first round as losers.

While that’s all well and good, there’s a discussion to be had in terms of how the Pats should approach the rest of the draft. After all, their track record in the first round over the last seven years is so bad that it’s almost impressive, if that makes any sense. But guess what? The same goes for the second round."




Maybe it's time to try something crazy in this draft? This is a pathetic record to say the least!

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The CB and WR draft system is broken. It stupidly looks at a specific height or combine time. Instead of asking #1, can a guy get open or can a guy cover, and prove it in workouts.

I saw a video that terrifies me. It's a Patriots coach going to a college team to work out all their DBs and the college kids line up, have a DB quickly shuttle forward, then shuttle backward to catch a lofting ball. You see the coaches nod in approval as the kids do this drill. This is a ******ed drill. It doesn't reveal whether a corner can cover a live WR who is putting moves on. The Patriot CB and WR drafting systems are absolutely broken. Burn and torch whatever crap McDaniels/Caserio changed in 2004-now and go back to Bill's original scouting methods from pre 2004 or his dad's book.

Tony2046 said:

"QuaRteRbAcKzZZ aRe ToO EXpEnsIve"

Are you five years old?

Trading the farm for the fourth least wanted QB is gambling at best. It's Jetsy as hell. It's straight up dumb.

The Pats need two QBs. Unless you want to keep Hoyer and Stidham. Grab two without trading the farm and maybe you'll catch lightning in a bottle, or maybe get a viable QB 2 or nothing. Use the 15th for the BPA. Your team gets better.

"Banner year for QBs" ??

That statement falls in line with the likes of "this baby is in mint condition", "only highway miles" or "driven by a grandmother". You don't know how any of those QBs are going to turn out but even worse you're willing to bet the next three seasons or more on a wish that the fourth least wanted QB will become a franchise QB. Unbelievable.

It's not a banner year. It's just another year. There will always be QBs available during the next draft believe it or not. And BB will be able to move up to get one without spending the farm.

Your plan is a shot in the dark during a QB frenzy, in which the cost to move up is historically high and if you miss you won't be able to take another shot for three plus seasons. Ridiculous plan.

My plan Is to take a shot at a QB every season and still get to use my Ring rescued resources to improve the team. Great Plan.

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Exactly. Betting the farm for the 4th or 5th best QB is a total Jets-like move.

Tony2046 said:

"QuaRteRbAcKzZZ aRe ToO EXpEnsIve"

Are you five years old?

Trading the farm for the fourth least wanted QB is gambling at best. It's Jetsy as hell. It's straight up dumb.

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[/QUOTE]
ok let me explain things to you.
1) we aren’t trading the farm. It may only take 15 a 2022 1 and a couple later picks.
2) 4th QB on this draft could easily be top 10 of this decade. Your lazy thinking is meaningless.
3) 90% of what that pick turns out to be depends upon how you coach him, and what you surround him with. There is absolutely zero question that all 5 have the tools to succeed. No question at all. The success or failure of guys with the tools correlates completely to the coaching they get and team around them. If we can’t develop any of these 5 we will never develop a qb

Tony2046 said:

The Pats need two QBs. Unless you want to keep Hoyer and Stidham. Grab two without trading the farm and maybe you'll catch lightning in a bottle, or maybe get a viable QB 2 or nothing. Use the 15th for the BPA. Your team gets better.

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The last 73 QBs drafted after round 1 ga e a combined 3 playoff wins and 2 are by a guy who can’t stay on the field and his team just traded 3 1s to dump.
You are essentially saying the plan should be take 2 guys who gave no chance of succeeding and hope twice as hard.

Tony2046 said:

"Banner year for QBs" ??

That statement falls in line with the likes of "this baby is in mint condition", "only highway miles" or "driven by a grandmother". You don't know how any of those QBs are going to turn out but even worse you're willing to bet the next three seasons or more on a wish that the fourth least wanted QB will become a franchise QB. Unbelievable.

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There are 5 QBs considered potential superstars so much do that they could go in the first 5 picks.
Im not betting seasons, I am doing what it takes to have a chance. If you don’t get a QBs you are throwing away every season until you do.

Tony2046 said:

It's not a banner year. It's just another year. There will always be QBs available during the next draft believe it or not. And BB will be able to move up to get one without spending the farm.

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there have never been this many QBs rated this highly with superstar skillSets.

Your plan is a shot in the dark during a QB frenzy, in which the cost to move up is historically high and if you miss you won't be able to take another shot for three plus seasons. Ridiculous plan.

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this is where your ignorance is befuddling.
We aren’t trading up because we need a QBs and are hoping. We are trading up because there are franchise QBs to trade up for.
So your argument is if the QBs fails you lose 3 years figuring it out then have to draft a QB again, so the best plan is to not draft a qb and still need one in 3 years. Brilliant.

Tony2046 said:

My plan Is to take a shot at a QB every season and still get to use my Ring rescued resources to improve the team. Great Plan.

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And for the last 8 years you could have taken every one drafted after round 1 and still be looking for a qb. Brilliant.

What you are saying is it’s too expensive to get a good QBs so I’m going to keep getting crappy ones and hope.
With your plan we become the raiders.

I just did a mock draft where Lance fell to 7 I traded our first our third and a second next year for that spot took Lance.
then traded into next year on my next pick then took DL OL WR and traded my 7ths for 5ths next season.
Would be a dream scenario in my opinion.

ok let me explain things to you.
1) we aren’t trading the farm. It may only take 15 a 2022 1 and a couple later picks.
2) 4th QB on this draft could easily be top 10 of this decade. Your lazy thinking is meaningless.
3) 90% of what that pick turns out to be depends upon how you coach him, and what you surround him with. There is absolutely zero question that all 5 have the tools to succeed. No question at all. The success or failure of guys with the tools correlates completely to the coaching they get and team around them. If we can’t develop any of these 5 we will never develop a qb

The last 73 QBs drafted after round 1 ga e a combined 3 playoff wins and 2 are by a guy who can’t stay on the field and his team just traded 3 1s to dump.
You are essentially saying the plan should be take 2 guys who gave no chance of succeeding and hope twice as hard.

There are 5 QBs considered potential superstars so much do that they could go in the first 5 picks.
Im not betting seasons, I am doing what it takes to have a chance. If you don’t get a QBs you are throwing away every season until you do.

there have never been this many QBs rated this highly with superstar skillSets.


this is where your ignorance is befuddling.
We aren’t trading up because we need a QBs and are hoping. We are trading up because there are franchise QBs to trade up for.
So your argument is if the QBs fails you lose 3 years figuring it out then have to draft a QB again, so the best plan is to not draft a qb and still need one in 3 years. Brilliant.


And for the last 8 years you could have taken every one drafted after round 1 and still be looking for a qb. Brilliant.

What you are saying is it’s too expensive to get a good QBs so I’m going to keep getting crappy ones and hope.
With your plan we become the raiders.
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Drew this line ^^^ because Ring can't properly quote a post.

Contradiction after contradiction.

"90% of what that pick turns out to be depends upon how you coach him, and what you surround him with"

So Cam being surrounded by shyt last season doesn't count? How about Covid? No affect?

So coaching and the talent surrounding a QB doesn't work for QBs that go at the bottom of the first or in later rounds?

"There are 5 QBs considered potential superstars so much do that they could go in the first 5 picks."

Total BS. Only one is considered a potential super star. Then there are two more that are considered potential very good starters. And then there is one that is considered a project.

"There is absolutely zero question that all 5 have the tools to succeed. No question at all."

How many QBs come out of college with "all the tools"??

Let me guess. " Has a big arm", "escapability", "throws with touch", "great leadership skills". Blah blah.

You don't know how any of them will adjust to the game at the NFL level. You don't how fast he'll be able to make his post snap reads. The difference between a good QB and a great QB is how quickly he processes what's in front of him. A lot of physically talented QBs are no longer in the league.

" What you are saying is it’s too expensive to get a good QBs so I’m going to keep getting crappy ones and hope."

Three plus first round picks to move up to get the fourth least wanted QB is too expensive.

If it was three plus for the first pick in the draft I'd be fine because that's getting the pick of the litter. The fourth?? Nope. That's being desperate. And it handicaps your next two drafts. Dumb.

"And for the last 8 years you could have taken every one drafted after round 1 and still be looking for a qb. Brilliant."

I thought you just said a QBs success depends on the coaching and what you surround him with?

Tony2046 said:

Contradiction after contradiction.

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Not a single contradiction

"90% of what that pick turns out to be depends upon how you coach him, and what you surround him with"

So Cam being surrounded by shyt last season doesn't count? How about Covid? No affect?

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newton sucks. Newton sucks with bad receivers. Newton sucks with good receivers.
I am talking about DEVELOPING A QB not making excuses for a garbage one

So coaching and the talent surrounding a QB doesn't work for QBs that go at the bottom of the first or in later rounds?

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No because if they have the skill set and potential to develop into a star they are long gone.

"There are 5 QBs considered potential superstars so much do that they could go in the first 5 picks."

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Total BS. Only one is considered a potential super star. Then there are two more that are considered potential very good starters. And then there is one that is considered a project.

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no need for us to argue, just watch where they are drafted. Every one will be drafted in a slot where potential superstars are drafted. I am right by FACT.

"There is absolutely zero question that all 5 have the tools to succeed. No question at all."

How many QBs come out of college with "all the tools"??
Let me guess. " Has a big arm", "escapability", "throws with touch", "great leadership skills". Blah blah.

You don't know how any of them will adjust to the game at the NFL level. You don't how fast he'll be able to make his post snap reads. The difference between a good QB and a great QB is how quickly he processes what's in front of him. A lot of physically talented QBs are no longer in the league.

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talk about contradiction. You are arguing against a statement that they have the tools necessary to succeed by talking about developing, while my entire point is you draft the tools and you coach them to develop.

" What you are saying is it’s too expensive to get a good QBs so I’m going to keep getting crappy ones and hope."

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Three plus first round picks to move up to get the fourth least wanted QB is too expensive.

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not when you don’t have a qb or any other other plan to get one. And there is no reason to believe it will definitely take 3 1s.
By all means though please show me the 3 1s we have take in the last decade that we couldn’t do without and would win with despite ignoring the QBs spot.

If it was three plus for the first pick in the draft I'd be fine because that's getting the pick of the litter. The fourth?? Nope. That's being desperate. And it handicaps your next two drafts. Dumb.

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what if the 4th best this year is better than the best next year and the year after?
If Fields stayed in school he would be projected now as the #1 overall next year. So you would trade for him next year but not this year? Contradiction.

"And for the last 8 years you could have taken every one drafted after round 1 and still be looking for a qb. Brilliant."

I thought you just said a QBs success depends on the coaching and what you surround him with?

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It does not you have to draft a QB who has the requisite skills and by round 2 they are long gone.

QB success/failure is a skewed statistic for several reasons. Teams that need QBs usually draft them very high, so these guys get a chance. Teams that don't need QBs draft backups in later rounds, so even the guys who might make it don't see the field for years, while the rest of the league moves on to the "next best thing." Few teams want to grab a 5th year "rookie," when getting an actual rookie is cheaper and with longer-term cost control.

That peculiarity is not true of any other position in sports. It also greatly skews "success" to those taken by QB-needy teams, because they, you know, actually get a chance to play.

A perfect illustration of this is when Washington drafted RGIII (can't miss, different but same level as Luck!!!!!!!!) in Round 1 and Kirk Cousins, who's had a much better career, three rounds later.

This is also why you're seeing guys like Darnold getting the reclamation project. Another guy who might be worth giving a shot is Josh Rosen, who fell into a terrible position coming out, where he was running for his life every other play.

50-yard-line said:

QB success/failure is a skewed statistic for several reasons. Teams that need QBs usually draft them very high, so these guys get a chance. Teams that don't need QBs draft backups in later rounds, so even the guys who might make it don't see the field for years, while the rest of the league moves on to the "next best thing." Few teams want to grab a 5th year "rookie," when getting an actual rookie is cheaper and with longer-term cost control.

That peculiarity is not true of any other position in sports. It also greatly skews "success" to those taken by QB-needy teams, because they, you know, actually get a chance to play.

A perfect illustration of this is when Washington drafted RGIII (can't miss, different but same level as Luck!!!!!!!!) in Round 1 and Kirk Cousins, who's had a much better career, three rounds later.

This is also why you're seeing guys like Darnold getting the reclamation project. Another guy who might be worth giving a shot is Josh Rosen, who fell into a terrible position coming out, where he was running for his life every other play.

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Because talent.

50-yard-line said:

QB success/failure is a skewed statistic for several reasons. Teams that need QBs usually draft them very high, so these guys get a chance. Teams that don't need QBs draft backups in later rounds, so even the guys who might make it don't see the field for years, while the rest of the league moves on to the "next best thing." Few teams want to grab a 5th year "rookie," when getting an actual rookie is cheaper and with longer-term cost control.

That peculiarity is not true of any other position in sports. It also greatly skews "success" to those taken by QB-needy teams, because they, you know, actually get a chance to play.

A perfect illustration of this is when Washington drafted RGIII (can't miss, different but same level as Luck!!!!!!!!) in Round 1 and Kirk Cousins, who's had a much better career, three rounds later.

This is also why you're seeing guys like Darnold getting the reclamation project. Another guy who might be worth giving a shot is Josh Rosen, who fell into a terrible position coming out, where he was running for his life every other play.

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Also to be considered is the Jets factor, ie how many teams draft QBs and then just ruin them when they might have proved to be good to excellent if drafted into the right situation with the right coaching staff. The sarcasm about RGIII is a little off since he's a prime example of a QB being ruined by his original team.