Is Trey Lance worth Patriots to trade up to get?

Rob0729 said:

The odds are better if you draft a QB in the top 10-15 picks than later in the draft. That is true. But what you seem to refuse to admit is that the odds of getting a franchise QB in the top 10 still isn't very good. It is a crap shoot even that high. It is a crap shoot even with a top 3 pick.

Even if you are absolutely in love with someone and feel they are a can't miss QB and trade away three first round draft picks to move up, the odds are you are going to be wrong and set your franchise back for years. That is the simple truth. Based on history, you have a far less than 50-50 chance that you made the right decision to trade up.

And the fact you used a casino related analogy is spot on in a way you didn't think of. The only way you can walk into a casino and be more likely than not to walk out with at least the same amount of gambling money as you walked in with is not to gamble at all. The second you lay money on the table in a casino, you are far more likely to walk away losing than winning. And that is the same when you select a QB in the draft. That is why investing multiple first round picks to trade up to get a QB is such a gamble especially for the fourth or fifth best QB in the draft.

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That is a horrible analogy. It’s like saying the moment you go for a 4th down, blitz, trade, make any draft choice, etc etc you lose because it’s a gamble.
Walking into a casino means putting up your money with the odds against you. That’s not at all what is happening when you make a decision how to use your resources.
The worst gamble is pretending you can win without a top QB and refusing to pay what it takes.
There is simply no question that a guy like fields will develop in this system with the coaching and the team around him. When you develop him, you have developed a guy with immense talent not a slug you get on day 3 who you will never win with. What difference do the picks make if you don’t fix the QBs problem?

NYCPATS4LIFE said:

I don’t see it. The falcons could take the QB. Hope not. I would trade up a couple of spots to get our guy. I would pick jones ahead of lance right now if both are there.

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I mean if the only objective is to draft a QB then the Pats have to find a way to trade up. But my point was even if they don’t, there’s guaranteed to be a premium grade prospect available to them at different positions at the 15 spot.

mgteich said:

why? because we want them to? Why isn't Pitts worth the pick?

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He is, but Atlanta is undergoing a regime change and they need as many new faces as possible.

Ring 6 said:

That is a horrible analogy. It’s like saying the moment you go for a 4th down, blitz, trade, make any draft choice, etc etc you lose because it’s a gamble.
Walking into a casino means putting up your money with the odds against you. That’s not at all what is happening when you make a decision how to use your resources.
The worst gamble is pretending you can win without a top QB and refusing to pay what it takes.
There is simply no question that a guy like Fields will develop in this system with the coaching and the team around him. When you develop him, you have developed a guy with immense talent not a slug you get on day 3 who you will never win with. What difference do the picks make if you don’t fix the QBs problem?

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Fields is a Future Bust. Don't go anywhere near him, including at #15 itself.

captain stone said:

Fields is a Future Bust. Don't go anywhere near him, including at #15 itself.

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Nah fields will end up being one of the best QBs in the nfl. He’s a stud. What do you think his flaws are?

Ring 6 said:

That is a horrible analogy. It’s like saying the moment you go for a 4th down, blitz, trade, make any draft choice, etc etc you lose because it’s a gamble.
Walking into a casino means putting up your money with the odds against you. That’s not at all what is happening when you make a decision how to use your resources.
The worst gamble is pretending you can win without a top QB and refusing to pay what it takes.
There is simply no question that a guy like fields will develop in this system with the coaching and the team around him. When you develop him, you have developed a guy with immense talent not a slug you get on day 3 who you will never win with. What difference do the picks make if you don’t fix the QBs problem?

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But you are advocating mortgaging the future by trading away multiple first round picks and probably several other high draft picks for the Pats trade up to select the 4th or 5th QB taken off the board for like a 3-5% chance that QB turns into a franchise QB.

I have shown you that drafting a QB in the top ten is a crap shoot and in most years only one or two QBs are drafted in the top 10, not 4-5. So this year is more of a crap shoot than most. And the best the Pats can do is trade up to get the fourth "best" QB available. I put best in quotes because not everyone will have whoever the 49ers take at 3 as the third best QB.

And the gamble isn't pretending you can win without a QB. The gamble is trading up to get a QB just because you think you need to have a QB to win. The Pats wouldn't be trading up for Trevor Lawrence or Zach Wilson. They would be trading up for most likely either Trey Lance or Justin Fields and both are more of projects and will have to sit for a year or two and by definition have significant question marks to whether either will be successful at the NFL level. You gamble on them and lose, you have to wait another 3-4 year to even try to get the next franchise QB.

Again, if the Pats absolutely loves someone available, then they should trade up. But just to trade up to get one of the remaining QBs just to get a top QB is silly. To be perfectly honest, I am not sure the fourth or fifth QB available would be all that much more likely to become a franchise QB than say a Kellen Mond or Kyle Trask in the second round. I think I would rather the Pats gamble on one of them than spending two future first rounders for Fields or Lance if they don't love either one and use the 15th pick for the best player available.

And BTW, my analogy is spot on. Your best chance of not losing money in a casino is by not betting at all by a wide, wide margin. But that is your worst chance of walking away with more money than you came in with. But I am only talking about the gamble in terms of losing.

I think this is were you must have collaborative opinions from your college scouts as well as your own evaluations.
Having really good analysts from your scouts will help reduce the chances of a #1 bust.

Whether the Patriots have top notch college scouts is unknown, but what is known is that several scouts has left the organization as a result of BillB not caring much of their opinions, which defeats the purpose of scouts.

Ring 6 said:

Nah fields will end up being one of the best QBs in the nfl. He’s a stud. What do you think his flaws are?

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Naw go watch the northwestern game . The guy is slow to process things . I saw him go to the wrong read twice.

NYCPATS4LIFE said:

Not a fan of Fields. His reaction is too slow. Ho
I like lance but he needs to a sit a year . .

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so

PatsFanInVa said:

I tend to agree with this approach to the question, but in the light of the "approach is changing" Kraft remarks, I wonder whether Belichick is still the sole authority.

Imunno. I mean, I'm guessing yes, but it's the off-season. Why not chum the waters.

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I wondered the same thing. It's certainly plausible.

mgteich said:

so

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Who do you like out of the QBs? Rank them.

Ultimately I don't think it' BB's nature to mortgage the farm to trade up that far. I remember almost 10 years ago Belichick told then Falcons GM Tom Dimitroff to not trade up for Julio Jones (21st overall to 6th) because it would cost too much. In my opinion he'll build around Cam and get him another weapon like Smith or Waddle or beef up the D with Micah Parsons or one of the corners...

zipster9 said:

I think this is were you must have collaborative opinions from your college scouts as well as your own evaluations.
Having really good analysts from your scouts will help reduce the chances of a #1 bust.

Whether the Patriots have top notch college scouts is unknown, but what is known is that several scouts has left the organization as a result of BillB not caring much of their opinions, which defeats the purpose of scouts.

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That’s bs.

Here’s one thing I don’t understand. People are saying that if a QB that we traded up for is a bust then you’ve mortgaged the future. But usually you don’t know if the QB is a bust for 2-3 years. Sometimes that’s how long they take to develop (look at Drew Brees). By the time you’re finally able to tell, you’ve already paid off any first round picks you traded to go up. I understand that you’re missing a couple picks in the meantime, but first rounders are never guaranteed to work out. To me it seems like a gamble that is worth taking if Bill and the scouts see a QB they like.

TommyBrady12 said:

Ultimately I don't think it' BB's nature to mortgage the farm to trade up that far. I remember almost 10 years ago Belichick told then Falcons GM Tom Dimitroff to not trade up for Julio Jones (21st overall to 6th) because it would cost too much. In my opinion he'll build around Cam and get him another weapon like Smith or Waddle or beef up the D with Micah Parsons or one of the corners...

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That argument was based upon the idea that no wr has that much value. QB is entirely different.

I just don’t understand how pooling lesser picks together to get a stud player at the most important position on the field is mortgaging the future. It’s building the future. It’s like saying getting an education is mortgaging your future.
Can you show me a team that lacks a QB that wouldn’t be better off if they traded their last 3 #1s for a QB?
None of them are winning, so ultimately they mortgaged their future on hoarding their picks.
It’s not a matter of being certain the pick will work out, you can’t be. It’s a matter of the best way to solve the biggest problem, and a certainty that there are 3 ways
1) draft a QB high
2) get lucky
3) fail

I’m really warming up to Mond I don’t see Fields or Lance having more of a ceiling.
It’s the Chris Simms and JT O’Sullivan reports but I think this kid is going to be really good. Davis Mills is kind of erratic but I’d take a flyer in the third or fourth on him.
Waddle in the first Mond in the second would be awesome. In my opinion.

Now I loved Lock and Stidham. And Wentz, and I hit on Josh Allen who I loved, I didn’t like Mahommes I loved Watson and I didn’t love Kyler Murray due to his short stature. Based on this and that McDaniels loves Mond maybe we should run far away from him.

Fields is the riskiest pick of the top 5 qbs in my professional opinion.
He could be the 2nd best of the bunch(doubtful), or the worst(less doubtful).
After Lawrence and Wilson,Jones is the most nfl-ready and would have the most immediate success with the Pats of the others. But Jones might also have the least upside. On paper, Lance sounds like the best prospect but vs. weak competition. Jones and Fields have both faced tough competition and succeeded.
So, in summary, my professional opinion is: " Who the fuk knows?"

mike_usagisan said:

Here’s one thing I don’t understand. People are saying that if a QB that we traded up for is a bust then you’ve mortgaged the future. But usually you don’t know if the QB is a bust for 2-3 years. Sometimes that’s how long they take to develop (look at Drew Brees). By the time you’re finally able to tell, you’ve already paid off any first round picks you traded to go up. I understand that you’re missing a couple picks in the meantime, but first rounders are never guaranteed to work out. To me it seems like a gamble that is worth taking if Bill and the scouts see a QB they like.

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You can win without every one of your picks being kept and working out.
You can’t win without a QB.

jimnance said:

Fields is the riskiest pick of the top 5 qbs in my professional opinion.
He could be the 2nd best of the bunch(doubtful), or the worst(less doubtful).
After Lawrence and Wilson,Jones is the most nfl-ready and would have the most immediate success with the Pats of the others. But Jones might also have the least upside. On paper, Lance sounds like the best prospect but vs. weak competition. Jones and Fields have both faced tough competition and succeeded.
So, in summary, my professional opinion is: " Who the fuk knows?"

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Why would you consider fields risky? Can you give some reasons?

mike_usagisan said:

Here’s one thing I don’t understand. People are saying that if a QB that we traded up for is a bust then you’ve mortgaged the future. But usually you don’t know if the QB is a bust for 2-3 years. Sometimes that’s how long they take to develop (look at Drew Brees). By the time you’re finally able to tell, you’ve already paid off any first round picks you traded to go up. I understand that you’re missing a couple picks in the meantime, but first rounders are never guaranteed to work out. To me it seems like a gamble that is worth taking if Bill and the scouts see a QB they like.

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Just because it can take 3-4 years for a QB to develop, doesn't mean you haven't mortgaged the future because the first rounders you gave up were during the period you were waiting for the QB to develop. What if with one of the picks you gave up, you could have drafted the next JJ Watt (a HOF player at another position other than QB that could change how teams play your team for a decade or so)? That impact your team for far longer than 3-4 years.

Again, if the Patriots thinks one of these guys available are a can't miss pick, then I am not opposed to them trading up. But to trade up for a QB just because you need a QB is stupid. Trading up and giving up two future first rounders because you think there is a shot that Lance or Fields could be a franchise QB is stupid too. You have to be sure the guy is a franchise QB and even then the odds are you are probably wrong.