Is Trey Lance worth Patriots to trade up to get?

Ring 6 said:

The smart move for them is to trade down.

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And the dumb move for the Pats would be trading up with Atlanta.

Ras-IR Dowling said:

I could entertain a trade up in the 7-8 range for Lance or Jones. If we’re not able to move up and all 5 are gone target Mond day 2.

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OK, so then we start Round 2 with zero assurance of getting Monde.

Ras-IR Dowling said:

I could entertain a trade up in the 7-8 range for Lance or Jones. If we’re not able to move up and all 5 are gone target Mond day 2.

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If we don't get the top QB we want, then we need to trade down in the first and draft our QB at the end of Round One. Some quarterback will be over-drafted at the end of Round 1.

Ring 6 said:

The smart move for them is to trade down.

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why? because we want them to? Why isn't Pitts worth the pick?

mgteich said:

If we don't get the top QB we want, then we need to trade down in the first and draft our QB at the end of Round One. Some quarterback will be over-drafted at the end of Round 1.

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Another option would be consolidating picks to move back into r1 for a Qb. We really don’t need to add more picks by moving down from 15, take BPA and then use 46 plus to move back into r1 if you feel the values there for Mond.

If Parsons/Collins is sitting there at 15 do we really pass them up just to trade down and position ourselves for a qb later on?

I think that BB will stay at 15 until he is on the clock, WHo knows who could still be there at 15, Waddle? Smith? Either one of them could transform the Pats offense. What if one of the CB slide? If you figure QBs take 5 slots ahead of the Pats, and then a run on tackles, one of the elite WR or CBs could drop to 15.

If they are all gone, then it would be wise to trade down, or if for some reason Fields or Lance is still there, I would either take them or take a kings ransom for the pick from whoever wants to trade up for him.

If Waddle, Smith, Pitts, Chase, or Surtian falls to 15 draft them and don't look back!!!!

captain stone said:

And the dumb move for the Pats would be trading up with Atlanta.

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No the dumb move for the pats would be coming away without a QB

mgteich said:

why? because we want them to? Why isn't Pitts worth the pick?

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Because they can get bonanza for that pick. Would you trade 3 1s to get pitts? They are way more than a TE away.

Ring 6 said:

Your kidding right? Keenum Cousins Garoppolo Carr and Prescott. That is your standards? THAT is what you consider success?

Im not sure how you are not following so I will repeat.

Drafting a QB in the top half of the first round is by far THE LIKELY WAY to find a top qb. Not Case Keenum, David Carr or other guys who win nothing.

Drafting a QB in the top half of the first round produces bust BUT AT A FAR LOWER RATE than drafting them later.

If you listed you “starter even if they suck standard” you would find at least a 10 times greater hit rate for top 15 picks thsn 2nd, 3rd, 4th whatever rounds you want to include starters who won’t be starters much longer from.

Here is the analogy.

The smart thing to do when you play black and have 18 is to stay.
The odds are enormously in your favor.
Your argument is the equivalent of saying it’s better to hit because you saw people do it and get an ace 2 or 3 and you’ve seen people stay and lose to a dealer 20.

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The odds are better if you draft a QB in the top 10-15 picks than later in the draft. That is true. But what you seem to refuse to admit is that the odds of getting a franchise QB in the top 10 still isn't very good. It is a crap shoot even that high. It is a crap shoot even with a top 3 pick.

Even if you are absolutely in love with someone and feel they are a can't miss QB and trade away three first round draft picks to move up, the odds are you are going to be wrong and set your franchise back for years. That is the simple truth. Based on history, you have a far less than 50-50 chance that you made the right decision to trade up.

And the fact you used a casino related analogy is spot on in a way you didn't think of. The only way you can walk into a casino and be more likely than not to walk out with at least the same amount of gambling money as you walked in with is not to gamble at all. The second you lay money on the table in a casino, you are far more likely to walk away losing than winning. And that is the same when you select a QB in the draft. That is why investing multiple first round picks to trade up to get a QB is such a gamble especially for the fourth or fifth best QB in the draft.

If mac jones is available trade down to early 20s get mac and then package two seconds to get in early 30s and draft the best defensive player available.

look kids.....big ben, parliament

captain stone said:

And the dumb move for the Pats would be trading up with Atlanta.

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I would do with another team but mac jones has to be there.

haripi2 said:

If mac jones is available trade down to early 20s get mac and then package two seconds to get in early 30s and draft the best defensive player available.

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Jones is not falling into the 20s.

The stuff Lombardi is saying about Fields and Lance was also said about Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Not top 10 QBs in this league. Don't trade up for them. Lombardi doesn't know, no one knows. You have a 67% shot of success.

Now--as for the other QBs? If you don't get one of the top ones, I'd recommend grabbing the BPA at #15 because he'll be a very good one. There's a dropoff after around 18 in this draft. The Patriots are in the sweet spot for a non-QB difference maker.

I don't like ANY of the other QBs, but I'd be more comfortable taking a guy later than taking a guy like Mond or Trask in the 2nd. They are career backups, and it will be a waste of a pick. I'd rather take J Newman in the 4th. He has all the tools that Mond and Trask have, and more. But like the others, we don't know at all whether he can run an NFL offense.

upstater1 said:

The stuff Lombardi is saying about Fields and Lance was also said about Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Not top 10 QBs in this league. Don't trade up for them. Lombardi doesn't know, no one knows. You have a 67% shot of success.

Now--as for the other QBs? If you don't get one of the top ones, I'd recommend grabbing the BPA at #15 because he'll be a very good one. There's a dropoff after around 18 in this draft. The Patriots are in the sweet spot for a non-QB difference maker.

I don't like ANY of the other QBs, but I'd be more comfortable taking a guy later than taking a guy like Mond or Trask in the 2nd. They are career backups, and it will be a waste of a pick. I'd rather take J Newman in the 4th. He has all the tools that Mond and Trask have, and more. But like the others, we don't know at all whether he can run an NFL offense.

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I like lance but he needs to a sit a year . Not a fan of Fields. His reaction is too slow. Holds on to the ball at times. Maybe he can fix some of his bad tendencies.

We have Cam. Taken # 1 overall . So Pats are set.

NYCPATS4LIFE said:

I like lance but he needs to a sit a year . Not a fan of Fields. His reaction is too slow. Holds on to the ball at times. Maybe he can fix some of his bad tendencies.

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Why wouldn't he be able to? So many of these QBs have the same problems coming into the league.

#1 thing I want to know about my QB is can he make the throws?
#1A Is he accurate?

If those 2 things aren't there, then it really doesn't matter how he processes, how he dissects defenses, how he runs the ball or moves in the pocket.

#1 and #1A come first.

I have doubts about at least one of the top 5, and it's not Fields when it comes to throwing the ball.

#2 is the ability to read defenses and anticipate what they're going to do. If you have the ability to throw it and you're one step ahead of the defense, then your success level is going to be very high.

Then comes all the rest, making progressions, moving in the pocket, running it. But we won't know any of this about the top 5 QBs until they actually play in the NFL.

upstater1 said:

Why wouldn't he be able to? So many of these QBs have the same problems coming into the league.

#1 thing I want to know about my QB is can he make the throws?
#1A Is he accurate?

If those 2 things aren't there, then it really doesn't matter how he processes, how he dissects defenses, how he runs the ball or moves in the pocket.

#1 and #1A come first.

I have doubts about at least one of the top 5, and it's not Fields when it comes to throwing the ball.

#2 is the ability to read defenses and anticipate what they're going to do. If you have the ability to throw it and you're one step ahead of the defense, then your success level is going to be very high.

Then comes all the rest, making progressions, moving in the pocket, running it. But we won't know any of this about the top 5 QBs until they actually play in the NFL.

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How would you rank the 5 QBs in this draft?

FreeTedWilliams said:

I think that BB will stay at 15 until he is on the clock, WHo knows who could still be there at 15, Waddle? Smith? Either one of them could transform the Pats offense. What if one of the CB slide? If you figure QBs take 5 slots ahead of the Pats, and then a run on tackles, one of the elite WR or CBs could drop to 15.

If they are all gone, then it would be wise to trade down, or if for some reason Fields or Lance is still there, I would either take them or take a kings ransom for the pick from whoever wants to trade up for him.

If Waddle, Smith, Pitts, Chase, or Surtian falls to 15 draft them and don't look back!!!!

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Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are almost certainly going 1 and 2. That leaves 13 slots for:

QB Justin Fields
QB Trey Lance
QB Mac Jones
WR Ja’Marr Chase
WR Jaylen Waddle
WR DeVonta Smith
TE Kyle Pitts
OT Penei Sewell
OT Rashawn Slater
DE Kwity Paye
LB Micah Parsons
CB Jaycee Horn
CB Patrick Surtain

Any of those guys would be great choices at 15, and it’s guaranteed at least one of them will be there. It’s a great spot to be in, and if the Pats are looking to trade it, I hope they don’t sell it short.

Lansdowne said:

Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are almost certainly going 1 and 2. That leaves 13 slots for:

QB Justin Fields
QB Trey Lance
QB Mac Jones
WR Ja’Marr Chase
WR Jaylen Waddle
WR DeVonta Smith
TE Kyle Pitts
OT Penei Sewell
OT Rashawn Slater
DE Kwity Paye
LB Micah Parsons
CB Jaycee Horn
CB Patrick Surtain

Any of those guys would be great choices at 15, and it’s guaranteed at least one of them will be there. It’s a great spot to be in, and if the Pats are looking to trade it, I hope they don’t sell it short.

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I don’t see it. The falcons could take the QB. Hope not. I would trade up a couple of spots to get our guy. I would pick jones ahead of lance right now if both are there.