Is Trey Lance worth Patriots to trade up to get?

BUSTAMOVE said:

If you get divorced you automatically lose 50% of your salary cap.
Plus she gets the inside of the house. We get the outside.

I do get your analogy scared money never wins. And we need a win a QB badly

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No, they get a rookie contract and you replace them.

The point of the analogy is there are previous few QBs that you can win with. If you think they cost too much to draft, and you can’t find one outside the draft then you are saying winning costs too much and you are destined to lose

Jesus man grow a set. Yes I agree and hope there is a qb worth drafting where we can get him. But jeez if they don’t get one and it is cam and Stidham I will give them a chance this season with the hope they excel and the expectation they will be replaced next year if they don’t.

Keyser Söze said:

If Belichick thinks he’s a franchise QB then absolutely yes. You trade whatever picks necessary to solidify the most important position on the field.

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I agree and Bill will if he thinks that. However he won’t do it if he doesn’t believe it.

moosekill said:

Jesus man grow a set. Yes I agree and hope there is a qb worth drafting where we can get him. But jeez if they don’t get one and it is cam and Stidham I will give them a chance this season with the hope they excel and the expectation they will be replaced next year if they don’t.

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So what are saying is that this is Newton’s last year in New England! Man, you just made my day.

Lol you may well be right!

Bill isn’t going to trade away the draft or the draft and Gilmore unless a qb is available he deems worthy. He may well think there are 2 qb’s in the entire draft worth drafting, he may think there are 10, but he won’t, and I don’t want him to, trade away huge draft capital to draft a bust.

I think SF is taking Vance, leaving Fields and Jones, and whoever picks the next QB (Denver?) is likely to take Fields. Jones could be the only realistic option we'll have, and there is a chance BB trades up to 10 or 11 to get him, for a 3rd and/or 4th.

40yrpatsfan said:

I think SF is taking Vance, leaving Fields and Jones, and whoever picks the next QB (Denver?) is likely to take Fields. Jones could be the only realistic option we'll have, and there is a chance BB trades up to 10 or 11 to get him, for a 3rd and/or 4th.

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That’s depressing

Ochmed Jones said:

So what are saying is that this is Newton’s last year in New England! Man, you just made my day.

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If Cam ends up being the starter and has a great MVP caliber season then great! It means the Pats are winning a lot of games, maybe even the Super Bowl. The downside to a great Cam season? The temptation for BB to keep him around long term. Given the style of quarterback Cam is, and the amount of mileage on his body, I worry about him physically holding up for much longer. His throwing shoulder has already been a concern.

Ring 6 said:

Totally disagree.
The risk of trading up is the qb flood and you lost some picks. The risk of not trading up is you have more crappy QBs play and never won again. If you won’t do it this year, you won’t ever do it and we are destined to play QBs like newton who are only here because no other team even wants them.
The risk of not trading up is much greater than the risk of trading up and it’s not even a risk if you don’t it’s a certainty.

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I get what you are saying. Will just have to agree to disagree. I loved Tommy and I still do, but there are another 30 or so players who play on offense, defense, and special teams plus the coaching staff...a quarterback unfairly gets all the glory and all the blame. A lot more goes into winning football games other than a QB. Having a great one makes life easier. What we need is a QB who doesn't give the game away.

Either way, we will find out in 21 days or so what the Pats' plan is...my gut says BB will stick to the economics of making the best decision for the team. But if he does trade up...oh boy.....he's SOLD...and I'll be on board. Many ways to skin a cat....

Ring 6 said:

I mean do you really believe teams coach players based upon where they were drafted?
If that were the case why? Wouldn’t it be because players drafted higher have more skill?
Im not sure why you bring up resources but perhaps there is more patience for a higher skilled player but that’s not an excuse, it’s warranted and also demonstrates another reason you have to draft the talented player

Ultimately in my view the most important factor in the development of a qb is the coaching they receive. And everyone from a #1 pick to an udfa has that opportunity to absorb the and develop.

Do you have examples of players who were drafted late and could have become top 10 qbs but their team didn’t have patience that we could discuss?

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Do you believe Jordan Richards makes the roster if he wasn't a second round pick? How long did Chad Jackson hang around based on his draft status? Ras-IR Dowling? Hell, BB is well known for bringing in highly drafted "busts" and seeing if he can squeeze anything out of them.

Of course teams treat young players differently depending on their draft position. If you don't believe me, explain the 5th year option for 1st rounders.

woolster22 said:

Do you believe Jordan Richards makes the roster if he wasn't a second round pick? How long did Chad Jackson hang around based on his draft status? Ras-IR Dowling? Hell, BB is well known for bringing in highly drafted "busts" and seeing if he can squeeze anything out of them.

Of course teams treat young players differently depending on their draft position. If you don't believe me, explain the 5th year option for 1st rounders.

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Good point. BB does have a long history of busts with 2nd round picks. So why not consolidate and move up to get the one guy that could lead the franchise? As other analysts have pointed out, 10 rookies are NOT going to make this now stacked roster. Might as well package some picks to move up and grab higher quality talent than in previous years. Didn't Kraft hint that the Patriots draft strategy could be changing? Maybe moving up for Elite Talent is not just a pipe dream in 2021.

Ring 6 said:

The chances of a guy you take in the second round becoming a top 10 QB are minute.
The real question is what is a better team. One with a top 10 QB or one that stinks at the QB spot but got to make a couple more draft picks?
If you don’t draft the qb you have little if any chance of ending up with a top one. If you don’t draft one at the top of the first round you have little if any chance of getting one.
Of course QBs are over drafted. They are so important the cost is high. But rather than looking it as requiring a “sure thing” when there really isn’t suck a thing, it should be looked at the other way, if you don’t go get a top prospect (which then becomes your coaching staffs job to develop) it’s pretty much a sure thing you will continue to suck at the most important position, won’t win, and those picks you saved won’t matter any way.

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I wouldn't call it "minute". Obviously a quarterback who is rated higher has a better chance of succeding. But still we talk about these top four quarterbacks like they are sure things. Tom Brady, Russel Wilson, Drew Brees, Bret Favre, Joe Montana what do these guys have in common. They all were ~ not ~ taken in the first round. Yes there are the Peyton Mannings, Andrew Lucks but there are also the Marcus Mariotas, and Josh Rosens.

My point is to sell the farm (SF 3 first rounders and a third, damn !!) is too much a price to pay for something that can still be a crap shoot. And trust me if Bill Belichick gives up that much to get a Ryan Leaf, folks here are going to want blood. I personally am hoping he stays at 15. If Mac Jones is there i am all for it. If not there are still alternatives like Kellen Mond or Mills in day 2 or even Jimmy G when SF realizes that Bill is not going to blink and cuts him no strings attached.

woolster22 said:

Do you believe Jordan Richards makes the roster if he wasn't a second round pick? How long did Chad Jackson hang around based on his draft status? Ras-IR Dowling? Hell, BB is well known for bringing in highly drafted "busts" and seeing if he can squeeze anything out of them.

Of course teams treat young players differently depending on their draft position. If you don't believe me, explain the 5th year option for 1st rounders.

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Exactly.. the fact that people are seemingly willing to give us a draft pick for Harry despite how poor he has been is purely down to the fact that he was a high pick. If he was a low pick or UDFA we would just cut him and he might get a shot but no one is giving us a draft pick.

Fields is way too risky. In almost all the highlights I saw, his WRs were wide open so I do not know if he can thread the needle; I suspect not.

Lance has good escapability, but he will get killed in the pros if he runs like he did in college. Throws a good deep ball. Fairly accurate, but not elite. He should be a good pro, but I am not sure he is worth gambling the future for.

As far as Parsons, I suspect that character concerns will take him off he board for the Patriots. Also in he highlights I saw, he had wide open lanes to the QB; it is not clear if he can shed blocks. Risky pick.

BayAreaPatsFan said:

I wouldn't call it "minute". Obviously a quarterback who is rated higher has a better chance of succeding. But still we talk about these top four quarterbacks like they are sure things. Tom Brady, Russel Wilson, Drew Brees, Bret Favre, Joe Montana what do these guys have in common. They all were ~ not ~ taken in the first round. Yes there are the Peyton Mannings, Andrew Lucks but there are also the Marcus Mariotas, and Josh Rosens.

My point is to sell the farm (SF 3 first rounders and a third, damn !!) is too much a price to pay for something that can still be a crap shoot. And trust me if Bill Belichick gives up that much to get a Ryan Leaf, folks here are going to want blood. I personally am hoping he stays at 15. If Mac Jones is there i am all for it. If not there are still alternatives like Kellen Mond or Mills in day 2 or even Jimmy G when SF realizes that Bill is not going to blink and cuts him no strings attached.

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You named 5 guys over 40 years and only 1 in the last 20. That’s minute.

Ring 6 said:

Totally disagree.
The risk of trading up is the qb flood and you lost some picks. The risk of not trading up is you have more crappy QBs play and never won again. If you won’t do it this year, you won’t ever do it and we are destined to play QBs like newton who are only here because no other team even wants them.
The risk of not trading up is much greater than the risk of trading up and it’s not even a risk if you don’t it’s a certainty.

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Teams who risk and trade up fail more often than succeed. Look at the Jets. This will be the third time in the last 12 years that the Jets have traded a lot of capital to move up into the top 5 to draft a franchise QB and have come away with two mediocre QBs and we will see if Wilson ever lives up to his draft hype. The Rams traded up to get Goff and had to get rid of a boatload just to get him off their books.

Meanwhile, this year's MVP and a guaranteed first round HOFer was drafted 24th in the draft. You look at a lot of top QBs in the league right now and they weren't top 10 picks. Along with Rodgers, you have other QBs in the top ten in the production this year like Brady (6th round), Watson (12th), Wilson (3rd round), and Kirk Counsins (4th round).

Since 2012, here are the list of QBs drafted in the top ten:

Blake Bortles - journeyman backup
Jameis Winston - Back up last year and will try to revive his career in a different team that drafted him
Marcus Mariota - A back up
Jared Goff - No longer with the team that drafted him and an average QB
Carson Wentz - A back up in Philly who just got traded away
Mitchell Trubisky - On his second team as a back up
Patrick Mahomes - Arguably the best QB in football
Baker Mayfield - Major disappointment thus far
Sam Darnold - Traded away
Josh Allen - Finally living up to his bill
Josh Rosen - A bust
Kyler Murray - A good, not great QB
Daniel Jones - Average
Joe Burrows - Looks like he could be great
Tua Tagovailoa - Looks like the Dolphins may already be starting to sour on the guy
Justin Herbert - May be good
Andrew Luck - Great QB
Robert Griffin - Bust but could be attributed to injuries
Ryan Tannehill - Bust with the team that drafted him, but has turned into a good QB

So in a decade, the top 10 has only products one sure fire HOFers, and two or three other top QBs and a few more good ones, but mostly were busts and disappointments. So this is why you don't spend a lot of draft capital to move up to get a QB unless you are convinced he is going to be really good.

zipster9 said:

Me too. He has some issues that may not be fixable. Initially, I thought he could be a good choice as a 2nd fiddle.
Now, not too sure.

Interesting that McDaniels keeping contact with Mond. Hope that is not a sign of things to come...

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Cross Mond off the list. McDaniels thought Tim Tebow was worth trading up for in the 1st round.

Other points:
- I like the suggestion to maybe give up a 2 this year for a 1 in 2022.
- Saying a school like Ohio State or Alabama never produced a good QB is a bad argument. Michigan didn't really produce a QB stud till Brady despite being a powerhouse. Notre Dame didn't really produce a QB stud till Montana. Tennessee didn't really produce a QB stud till Manning. Purdue with Brees. Schools aren't like QB factories the same way some can be known for things like OLine.
- I've seen some claims thrown around that Mac Jones only made 50% of his 2nd read throws or that Justin Fields only made 1st read throws. Claims like this make absolutely zero sense and analysts who claim this can be effectively ignored. I appreciate the passion here but some claims are absolutely bonkers. And if SF takes Mac at #3 it will be fun to go back and read people who wrote authoritatively as if they know a lot more about QBs than Kyle Shanahan.

.

Ring 6 said:

You named 5 guys over 40 years and only 1 in the last 20. That’s minute.

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Grapollo, Brady, Carr, Preskott, keenum, Cousins.....non first rounders
Marriota, bortles, Trubisky Darnold top 4 picks

Thats just the current starters

Triumph said:

Hes being hyped up like a HOF lock.

Trevor Lawrence is going to have so much pressure on him, that he could fail. Before Mahomes, the last 1st round QB to win a Super Bowl was Joe Flacco from the 2008 draft.

Kyle Trask is the best option if he were to fall to 15. Nobody expects much from him, but the raw tools are all there to succeed in the NFL as a passing QB. Not a rushing QB. When the NFL changes the rules to where you cant lay a glove on a QB running out of the pocket, then I will want a Justin Fields.

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Trask at 15? That seems high.