Lansdowne
In the Starting Line-Up
- Joined
- Jan 18, 2005
- Messages
- 4,384
- Reaction score
- 1,422
Edit - Shoot...sorry I got carried away in my explanation! I really need to be better at condensing my messages. I added a too long, didn’t read version at the bottom if you want to skip the essay.
There’s a lot to consider for sure.
When a team is drafting a QB, usually within the first two rounds, they’re making a high investment on someone they see capable of stepping in to the starting role fairly soon. That affordable rookie contract is only good for four years, so if you want to build around this guy, you’ll want to figure that out at least halfway through the contract.
To me, the top 5 are the only QBs that if pressed to start for the Pats this season, I wouldn’t mind it (Lance being the least likely to be put in that spot...BB would absolutely carry 3 QBs in that scenario). After that, you have to hope that the likes of Mond, Mills, Newman, Trask, whoever you pick out of that group, that they can handle the responsibilities of an NFL QB right away, if you’re talking about replacing Cam *this season*. I think teams like the Steelers, Falcons, Bucs, they have franchise QBs who are toward the end of their careers, they can afford to have a Mond or Mills redshirt for a year, develop without the pressure of performing right away, and then see where they’re at a year or two from now. There won’t be pressure for them to go in and start.
Anyone who ends up on the Patriots is going to be observed very closely since Cam has a very tenuous grip of his position as starter. I think the odds are high that Pats fans are going to be very sick of seeing Cam throw ducks out there, and desperate to see the backup come in. If our season is riding on a raw prospect like Mond, we’re already doomed. If it’s riding on a guy like Fields, there’s at least hope because of his enormous talent.
If you draft a guy in the first couple rounds, there is usually a need to invest the years in seeing what you have. Even a guy like Ryan Mallett, who the Pats took in the 3rd round in 2011. They kept him rostered for three years before they finally cut bait and traded him away. Garoppolo was a 2nd round pick, and only didn’t stay because Brady outlasted him. It is rare to see something like with Dwayne Haskins where a team gives up on the player by the second season. More likely you see a guy like Mitchell Trubisky put up four mediocre seasons as the team tries to get return on investment. Buffalo held on to EJ Manuel for four seasons, even when it was clear early on that he was not an NFL caliber QB.
You invest big on one young QB, that means you’re looking away when other opportunities present themselves. It took the Jets three seasons to divorce themselves from Darnold, who has yet to perform as a 3rd overall pick should. And only because they’re in prime position to draft his successor. Had they not had a first round pick this year, there’s a good chance they’d give him a fourth and final year to see if maybe the new head coach can turn things around. But instead Saleh now has the chance to bring in his own QB (likely Zach Wilson), and then Saleh and that QB’s fates will be tied together.
If the Pats get a second tier QB like Mond/Mills/Newman/Trask, that means they’re more than likely investing in that QB being their long term guy. Sure they can always sign Garoppolo if the Niners cut him, and if Garoppolo realizes his full potential and becomes a dependable franchise guy, then that developmental QB they took in the 2nd or 3rd round becomes a possible trade chip, the same way Garoppolo was toward the end of his rookie deal. But otherwise, if it’s Cam, unless he turns back the clock to his MVP form and plays himself to a contract extension, he’s gone next year and that QB1 spot is open and you have to hope you have your guy on the roster by then. Next year’s draft class isn’t as strong as this year’s, and next year’s FA QB class looks every bit as weak as this year’s did. Don’t want to have to look for another bridge if your next guy up isn’t ready for the big time. That’s how guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick keep finding starting jobs despite a 16 year resume with 0 playoff appearances to his name.
Long story short, there is as much time investment needed as there is in planning around the cap. When you draft a QB in the 1st or 2nd round it’s because you believe he can be the starter eventually. So if they took Mond at 46th overall, you’re looking at anywhere from 2-4 years of the team developing, evaluating, and determining if he’s worth the investment or not. And those years can be lost if the guy is a bust. The same can happen with any of the top 5 (and odds are it will with at least one of them), but it seems less likely than with that second tier. You can be patient with Lance, Fields, Mac Jones, but if you’re lucky then you won’t have to be that patient.
TL;DR - raw QBs drafted high require investment both in draft capital and time. Run the risk of wasting time with a career backup when you could’ve aimed higher. No guarantees of course.
Last edited:
