Trade up now or wait

Ring 6 said:

In your example it was fields and yeah. Lance is harder because he likely just won’t be ready this year.

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I’m not too sure about that. Maybe not Week 1, but he could be ready by mid-season. With the TEs, ground game, and defense we look to have (and assuming we add some more pieces via the draft), we could win some games even with Cam until Lance is ready. A year out of football is a long time and it’s going to be a steep learning curve, but the kid’s got the arm talent, ball placement, stays in the pocket and looks to throw before running. He’s also turnover adverse and supposedly studies film like a junkie. That last part is probably why he’d be attractive to Bill. But, again, the price tag is considerable. The Niners just set the market for one pick earlier.

KontradictioN said:

I’m not too sure about that. Maybe not Week 1, but he could be ready by mid-season. With the TEs, ground game, and defense we look to have (and assuming we add some more pieces via the draft), we could win some games even with Cam until Lance is ready. A year out of football is a long time and it’s going to be a steep learning curve, but the kid’s got the arm talent, ball placement, stays in the pocket and looks to throw before running. He’s also turnover adverse and supposedly studies film like a junkie. That last part is probably why he’d be attractive to Bill. But, again, the price tag is considerable. The Niners just set the market for one pick earlier.

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Agree, I hope of course Cam improves but we can not denie the chance he plays like last year, it shouldn't be too hard for Lance to take over then bc he can't be worse

Ring 6 said:

Nah because based upon your approach every qb is overpriced so you’ll never get one.
But Ok let’s use your analogy you race your Camry at Indy because race cars are too expensive.
If you won’t pay the price required to draft one, where in the world are you expecting to get a franchise QBs from?

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Again. QB4 isn’t going to become a franchise qb. Some years there aren’t any.
You can’t pick a guy and say he’s a franchise qb. He has to possess the mental and physical ability to become one. You realize this isn’t fantasy football right?

Ring 6 said:

Football evaluator. Let me guess, you think you know more than them

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Cousin,
Had a Ruben sandwich with some pickles and chips, plus a mug of coffee for lunch. I am ready for observations here for fun and amusement only.
Ring.....With confidence there are many on the site who have evaluation tools at least as good as your present NFL "professionals". This is a direct result of items like you tube, internet exposure, resources like PFF and the culmination of ideas from thousands of player studies. Ten years ago?.....not so much.
17%.....keep that in mind.
The average success rate for a NFL Team in a gestation period of a fair three years or seasons is 17%
The personnel men get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to make these determinations. If their performance was in Major League baseball they would be cut at a batting average of.170.
So roughly two to three players are on the same Team that Drafted them at the end of three seasons. The categories of Draftee success are Pro Bowl, full time starter, valued back up or various special Team designations. The rest are waived, cut, traded or just leave the game. Most of the failure is these "professionals" trying to fit a square peg in a round hole and the pick does not work. Many iffy players stick on the roster to fill holes but should not be looked at other than cannon fodder.
The irony is the worse the Team, the more the Draft choices are kept to fil immediate needs. Like the Pats and Steelers in the past, only a few picks made it.The Packers and Chiefs would be an example today.

Ring, I am going to go out on a limb here and say you could probably do a reasonable Draft. Is that a fair statement?

Raise your hands if you think that you on this site could not have had more Drafting success within the last five year time period over the Patriots (see Monte and Nick C.). This is not all on Bill. He is better cat obtaining existing present NFL talent than the Draft.

DW Toys

Every draft class is different. Some drafts don’t have any first round worthy QB’s (1996), some have many (1983).

1983 had 6 QB’s taken in the first round, and 3 of them became HOFers (Elway QB1, Kelly QB3, Marino QB6).

The 2000 draft class was considered weak for QBs, only one got taken 1st round, QB4 didn’t get taken until Round 6, and QB7 famously became the greatest QB of all-time.

This year is weird because scouts are working with incomplete information due to COVID, with opt-outs or abbreviated seasons. There is little chance that all 5 of the expect first rounders are going to hit, but 2-3 of them should at least.

While we’re on the subject of Belichick’s draft failures. How many were around 30-32?

Our pick is 15. I’m hoping we stay there. 5 qb’s get drafted. And, we get a Top 10 player. BB has hit on his early picks.

patsfaninpa said:

While we’re on the subject of Belichick’s draft failures. How many were around 30-32?

Our pick is 15. I’m hoping we stay there. 5 qb’s get drafted. And, we get a Top 10 player. BB has hit on his early picks.

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no, we'd get a top 15 player.

In any case, it is likely that we would likely trade down, although he might pick a corner. Parsons and Waddle will be long gone

KontradictioN said:

I’m not too sure about that. Maybe not Week 1, but he could be ready by mid-season. With the TEs, ground game, and defense we look to have (and assuming we add some more pieces via the draft), we could win some games even with Cam until Lance is ready. A year out of football is a long time and it’s going to be a steep learning curve, but the kid’s got the arm talent, ball placement, stays in the pocket and looks to throw before running. He’s also turnover adverse and supposedly studies film like a junkie. That last part is probably why he’d be attractive to Bill. But, again, the price tag is considerable. The Niners just set the market for one pick earlier.

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I’m concerned about the jump in competition. Wentz did it though.

patsfaninpa said:

Again. QB4 isn’t going to become a franchise qb. Some years there aren’t any.
You can’t pick a guy and say he’s a franchise qb. He has to possess the mental and physical ability to become one. You realize this isn’t fantasy football right?

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The way you get a franchise Qb is drafting one. It’s beyond ignorant to say a qb is limited by how many good ones existed in a previous draft.

I will ask again, if you refuse to pay the price it takes to draft a qb in the range franchise QBs get drafted what’s your plan to get one? I’m sure you complained that the ones available for trade were too expensive too right?

patsfaninpa said:

While we’re on the subject of Belichick’s draft failures. How many were around 30-32?

Our pick is 15. I’m hoping we stay there. 5 qb’s get drafted. And, we get a Top 10 player. BB has hit on his early picks.

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And what do we do about a QB?

patsfaninpa said:

While we’re on the subject of Belichick’s draft failures. How many were around 30-32?

Our pick is 15. I’m hoping we stay there. 5 qb’s get drafted. And, we get a Top 10 player. BB has hit on his early picks.

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So far only one out of five (N’Keal Harry) and he’s still only 23 so his story isn’t set in stone just yet. Not looking good for him but many receivers don’t figure it out until their third year in the league. Benjamin Watson and Malcom Brown had respectable careers with the Patriots and away, even if they weren’t stars. Sony Michel was worth it just for his record-breaking rookie season and who’s not to say he can’t return to that form now that we’ve got some serious beef back on the o-line. Logan Mankins was the best left guard of his generation and the best Patriots left guard not named John Hannah.

mgteich said:

no, we'd get a top 15 player.

In any case, it is likely that we would likely trade down, although he might pick a corner. Parsons and Waddle will be long gone

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Agree, looking at the board at 15 even with 4 QB's taken in first 4 picks, Parsons, Waddle, D. Smith will all be gone.
Likely to be left at 15 would be Caleb, Paye, Slater, Darrisaw or maybe even Surtain. I would be quite happy with Darrisaw.

While we’re on the subject of Belichick’s draft failures. How many were around 30-32?

Our pick is 15. I’m hoping we stay there. 5 qb’s get drafted. And, we get a Top 10 player. BB has hit on his early picks.

mgteich said:

no, we'd get a top 15 player.

In any case, it is likely that we would likely trade down, although he might pick a corner. Parsons and Waddle will be long gone

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5 Qb’s
4 rec Chase, Pitts, Smith, Waddle
2 OL. Sewell and Slater
1 DL. Paye
1 LB Parsons
2 CB Surtain, Horn

I’m ok with any of those. Plus, there is always a surprise pic or two. Might get a better player than you think.

BoTown said:

So far only one out of five (N’Keal Harry) and he’s still only 23 so his story isn’t set in stone just yet. Not looking good for him but many receivers don’t figure it out until their third year in the league. Benjamin Watson and Malcom Brown had respectable careers with the Patriots and away, even if they weren’t stars. Sony Michel was worth it just for his record-breaking rookie season and who’s not to say he can’t return to that form now that we’ve got some serious beef back on the o-line. Logan Mankins was the best left guard of his generation and the best Patriots left guard not named John Hannah.

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I’m being sarcastic. Sticking up for BB. The only thing that bugs me is the second round db’s

Ring 6 said:

And what do we do about a QB?

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We’ll play one better than Jones or Lance
Won’t be hard

DW Toys said:

Cousin,
Had a Ruben sandwich with some pickles and chips, plus a mug of coffee for lunch. I am ready for observations here for fun and amusement only.
Ring.....With confidence there are many on the site who have evaluation tools at least as good as your present NFL "professionals". This is a direct result of items like you tube, internet exposure, resources like PFF and the culmination of ideas from thousands of player studies. Ten years ago?.....not so much.
17%.....keep that in mind.
The average success rate for a NFL Team in a gestation period of a fair three years or seasons is 17%
The personnel men get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to make these determinations. If their performance was in Major League baseball they would be cut at a batting average of.170.
So roughly two to three players are on the same Team that Drafted them at the end of three seasons. The categories of Draftee success are Pro Bowl, full time starter, valued back up or various special Team designations. The rest are waived, cut, traded or just leave the game. Most of the failure is these "professionals" trying to fit a square peg in a round hole and the pick does not work. Many iffy players stick on the roster to fill holes but should not be looked at other than cannon fodder.
The irony is the worse the Team, the more the Draft choices are kept to fil immediate needs. Like the Pats and Steelers in the past, only a few picks made it.The Packers and Chiefs would be an example today.

Ring, I am going to go out on a limb here and say you could probably do a reasonable Draft. Is that a fair statement?

Raise your hands if you think that you on this site could not have had more Drafting success within the last five year time period over the Patriots (see Monte and Nick C.). This is not all on Bill. He is better cat obtaining existing present NFL talent than the Draft.

DW Toys

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That is ridiculous. These professionals jobs is to watch all the tape on these prospects. Do you have the time to do that? Of course not, so you are immediately at a disadvantage.
They have worked their entire life in football. It’s beyond ridiculous to say a guy who reads about the draft as a hobby can be as effective in evaluating that film. Disadvantage 2.
They speak to their coaches. Disadvantage 3.
They work them out. Disadvantage 4.
They interview them. Disadvantage 5.
They have a full time scouting and coaching staff that could put 20 times as much effort into evaluation than you even if they did it as a hobby. disadvantage 6.

So even if your football knowledge and evaluation skill was equal to the professionals you have all of those disadvantages in being able to gather equal data to evaluate with.

I have no clue where you are getting 17% from, sounds like something you made up but if you are going to throw it out there you need to define it.

patsfaninpa said:

We’ll play one better than Jones or Lance
Won’t be hard

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Where are you getting him from? He won’t fall out of the sky.
You are refusing to draft one, there are no free agents. No one is available for trade. You are riding your bike on a snowstorm laughing at the idiots who over paid for a car.

BoTown said:

Every draft class is different. Some drafts don’t have any first round worthy QB’s (1996), some have many (1983).

1983 had 6 QB’s taken in the first round, and 3 of them became HOFers (Elway QB1, Kelly QB3, Marino QB6).

The 2000 draft class was considered weak for QBs, only one got taken 1st round, QB4 didn’t get taken until Round 6, and QB7 famously became the greatest QB of all-time.

This year is weird because scouts are working with incomplete information due to COVID, with opt-outs or abbreviated seasons. There is little chance that all 5 of the expect first rounders are going to hit, but 2-3 of them should at least.

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There is almost zero chance that any of the others will.
Drafting in the top 10 and risking a bust is the price of a QB. If you think that price is too steep, you end up losing so you can pay other players to lose with a crappy QB

If rodgers is becoming FA next year, better to be an enticing target team for him.

I say trade up and get Micah parsons if he is not taken till 10. And then if Atlanta does not take a qb in round 1 trade up in second round and take kellen mond. And then take the best available tackle in 3rd round. Ideally don't draft more than 3 picks this year and let each draft pick count.

The first round pick needs to be a impact player and not a qb punt. With the playmakers that we have build a monster defense team and a offense which can move the chains with runs and RPO . I think any salvageable qb should be able to run it with the talent we have at TE ,OL and RB.

If Gilmore is resigned , teams will need to really figure out how to beat pass rush and throw it to our corners. So chances of defensive points on board will be higher . GO PATS !!

Ring 6 said:

Where are you getting him from? He won’t fall out of the sky.
You are refusing to draft one, there are no free agents. No one is available for trade. You are riding your bike on a snowstorm laughing at the idiots who over paid for a car.

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Cam>Fat Mac