Trade up now or wait

Joker said:

Could be that the GM of the NEP is quite content to have Cam Newton as the starter this season and is surrounding him with enough quality at skill positions to assuage the shortcomings he displayed last season. That being said, I think it's quite possible that Kyle Pitts is on the NEP radar. A generational talent that steps in day one.. Given the questions surrounding the QB's after picks 1 and 2, it'd be pure Belechick to grab a QB in the 2nd round.

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You might be on to something here J. Bill was among the first to run a 3-4. He pound his way to a superbowl in one year and the next went to 5 wide as a regular part of the offense. And just when the rest of the league was going more and more to spread offenses he introduced the NFL to the 2 TE offense with Hernandez and Gronk.

So if you are right and Bill sees the QB draft as I do (1 proven franchise QB, I one year guy with franchise talent, 3 one year wonders each of whom will have to sit a year before they become shots in the dark). So he surprises the NFL (especially after signing the 2 top TE FA's out there and moves up to 5-7 to select Pitts and THEN introduces the NFL to the THREE TE Wide open offense. What is it? Pitts is something like 6'7 Split him out with 2 TE's and a RB. How'd YOU like to be that OLB when Pitts starts to motion to the end of the LOS. Can you say crack back block!!!!! :EEK: OR he can veer of on shallow or mid range crossers. LOTS of innovative things you can do if your the one who drafts the "UNICORN".

But all that being said, IF I was going to go into the top 5, why would I pass up a TRUE generational talent to take a shot in the dark on a one year wonder, including one who hasn't played football since 2019. I understand that QB is THE most important position on offense, but it IS just one of 11 guys who need to do things to make it all work. Matthew Stafford was as talented as any of these kids you are talking about. More so because he's proven he can produce a prolific amount of passing yds in this league year after year. Yet he has played 12 seasons in the NFL without a SINGLE playoff win. In fact he's only played in 3 in his whole career. A 63% completion rate. over 45 THOUSAND passing yds with very flawed teams and it didn't mean ****!

I don't want to get all "on my soapbox" here, but football is the PUREST of the team sports, just because it is the sport that the INDIVIDUAL has the least impact. Get 3 great players in basketball an you are competing for championships. You need at least 12 to compete for football championships and that 12 better be backed up with 30 more VERY good players to survive the attrition of an NFL season..

In the NBA the best team IS likely to win a playoff series because its a 7 game series. In the NFL its one and done, and as we all know the most talented team doesn't always win the 3-4 games necessary to win a championship. One mistake and your out. Also good coaching helps in EVERY sport, but in no sport does good coaching have more impact than in the game of football. Over and OVER again its has been proven that the Better TEAM will beat the better talent.

So while QB IS a very important position, it is REALLY dumb to mortgage the kind of draft assets to make the move up to get one of the 2 guys in this draft with franchise talent, (Lawrence and Wilson will go 1'2) and completely INSANE to go up to the top 3-7 to get one of the one year wonders.

IF Jones is there at 15, I'm starting to feel better about that pick. If you felt you needed to go up a pick or 2 I wouldn't be happy, but I'd understand, if you really loved the guy. But you guys aren't talking about that. You are looking at this like this is the LAST draft in this decade where QB's will be available and if you don't draft one in the top 5 picks you will never see one available again. So I guess unless its a move up to get Pitts, you can put ME down as a "wait"

OK rant over.

manxman2601 said:

The trouble is, you’re making all kinds of assumptions; that BB likes four QBs, that QBs dont go 1-2-3. If you are trading four top picks to get to 4 (2021 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 2022 first at a minimum), you better be damn sure you are getting the person you want. And unless you have franchise QB grades on at least four of the QBs, then trading to four ahead of the draft is a big risk.

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Well we have to get a QB
If you think he likes less than 4 QB and QBs go 1-2-3 then trade up higher.
Trading up appears to be a necessity. We surely can’t go into the season with newton and Stidham as well as nothing for next year.
Choose whatever spot you feel it has to be.

I suppose the alternative is to sit and wait for the picks to happen then either panic to make a trade on the clock or just walk away without a qb if you get outbid. Not a good alternative to me.

patfanken said:

You might be on to something here J. Bill was among the first to run a 3-4. He pound his way to a superbowl in one year and the next went to 5 wide as a regular part of the offense. And just when the rest of the league was going more and more to spread offenses he introduced the NFL to the 2 TE offense with Hernandez and Gronk.

So if you are right and Bill sees the QB draft as I do (1 proven franchise QB, I one year guy with franchise talent, 3 one year wonders each of whom will have to sit a year before they become shots in the dark). So he surprises the NFL (especially after signing the 2 top TE FA's out there and moves up to 5-7 to select Pitts and THEN introduces the NFL to the THREE TE Wide open offense. What is it? Pitts is something like 6'7 Split him out with 2 TE's and a RB. How'd YOU like to be that OLB when Pitts starts to motion to the end of the LOS. Can you say crack back block!!!!! :EEK: OR he can veer of on shallow or mid range crossers. LOTS of innovative things you can do if your the one who drafts the "UNICORN".

But all that being said, IF I was going to go into the top 5, why would I pass up a TRUE generational talent to take a shot in the dark on a one year wonder, including one who hasn't played football since 2019. I understand that QB is THE most important position on offense, but it IS just one of 11 guys who need to do things to make it all work. Matthew Stafford was as talented as any of these kids you are talking about. More so because he's proven he can produce a prolific amount of passing yds in this league year after year. Yet he has played 12 seasons in the NFL without a SINGLE playoff win. In fact he's only played in 3 in his whole career. A 63% completion rate. over 45 THOUSAND passing yds with very flawed teams and it didn't mean ****!

I don't want to get all "on my soapbox" here, but football is the PUREST of the team sports, just because it is the sport that the INDIVIDUAL has the least impact. Get 3 great players in basketball an you are competing for championships. You need at least 12 to compete for football championships and that 12 better be backed up with 30 more VERY good players to survive the attrition of an NFL season..

In the NBA the best team IS likely to win a playoff series because its a 7 game series. In the NFL its one and done, and as we all know the most talented team doesn't always win the 3-4 games necessary to win a championship. One mistake and your out. Also good coaching helps in EVERY sport, but in no sport does good coaching have more impact than in the game of football. Over and OVER again its has been proven that the Better TEAM will beat the better talent.

So while QB IS a very important position, it is REALLY dumb to mortgage the kind of draft assets to make the move up to get one of the 2 guys in this draft with franchise talent, (Lawrence and Wilson will go 1'2) and completely INSANE to go up to the top 3-7 to get one of the one year wonders.

IF Jones is there at 15, I'm starting to feel better about that pick. If you felt you needed to go up a pick or 2 I wouldn't be happy, but I'd understand, if you really loved the guy. But you guys aren't talking about that. You are looking at this like this is the LAST draft in this decade where QB's will be available and if you don't draft one in the top 5 picks you will never see one available again.

OK rant over.

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How is josh fields a one year wonder?
He was 1b to Lawrence coming into college. He led his team to the playoff 2 years in a row. He took out Lawrence once and really would have twice if not for horrible calls.
He completed 67% of his passes with 41 Td and 3 Ints and 9.2 ypa while going 13-0 and scoring 47 ppg before having the playoff game stolen away 2 years ago, followed by 70% 9 ypa 22/6 scoring 41 ppg and another undefeated season before losing the championship. All after having no preseason. And he outplayed Lawrence.

how is that a 1 year wonder?

Ring 6 said:

Well we have to get a QB
If you think he likes less than 4 QB and QBs go 1-2-3 then trade up higher.
Trading up appears to be a necessity. We surely can’t go into the season with newton and Stidham as well as nothing for next year.
Choose whatever spot you feel it has to be.

I suppose the alternative is to sit and wait for the picks to happen then either panic to make a trade on the clock or just walk away without a qb if you get outbid. Not a good alternative to me.

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If BB thinks Lawrence is going to be a top 3 QB in the NFL for the next decade, then I’m all for going up to No1 but trading up to four before the draft is risky unless your are sure there are four outstanding QBs in the class.

Ring 6 said:

They have to draft a QB

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This mentality can get you into trouble. That's how you end up taking a guy you don't really believe in, just because you feel you "have to". If their guy isn't there, they'll take another position or trade down. You're going to have to accept that if the chips don't fall, they're going forward with Newton and trying again later.

Sicilian said:

This mentality can get you into trouble. That's how you end up taking a guy you don't really believe in, just because you feel you "have to". If their guy isn't there, they'll take another position or trade down. You're going to have to accept that if the chips don't fall, they're going forward with Newton and trying again later.

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Then they have to move up to where their guy is.
You can’t waste another season in newton and if you do you are right back in the same place next year.
Belichick understands this. He didn’t mangle the QB situation this badly without understanding he has to draft one.

This forum is going to go crazy when we trade up

Back into the first round to draft Mac Jones

manxman2601 said:

If BB thinks Lawrence is going to be a top 3 QB in the NFL for the next decade, then I’m all for going up to No1 but trading up to four before the draft is risky unless your are sure there are four outstanding QBs in the class.

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Are you saying you pass on any qb who will not be top 3 for a decade? And just accept losing with newton?
You are never sure about any player.
What is the alternative? Suck forever because you aren’t sure?
Why fixate on 4? If you only like 3 trade up to 3.
There are 4 QBs widely considered at top 5-10 picks. Are we really going to say we will pass and continue to suck at qb because we aren’t certain?
If you don’t like my plan of trading up to wherever it takes to get the QB what’s your plan?

Ring 6 said:

Then they have to move up to where their guy is.
You can’t waste another season in newton and if you do you are right back in the same place next year.
Belichick understands this. He didn’t mangle the QB situation this badly without understanding he has to draft one.

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You're assuming that opportunity is available. Again, if their guy is Fields, and he's the only QB they really feel is worth it, what assets should they give up in order to draft someone who isn't Fields? If Fields goes #2, and the Jets refuse to trade with the Pats, should they pass on a great player they can get at 15 in order to just draft a QB they don't like simply because he's a QB? If that QB fails, they (as you say) are right back where they were last year, just now without a 3 down LB, or a stud DL, or a top flight WR. You don't trade up to draft guys you don't think are the real deal just because they play a position of need.

Sicilian said:

You're assuming that opportunity is available. Again, if their guy is Fields, and he's the only QB they really feel is worth it, what assets should they give up in order to draft someone who isn't Fields? If Fields goes #2, and the Jets refuse to trade with the Pats, should they pass on a great player they can get at 15 in order to just draft a QB they don't like simply because he's a QB? If that QB fails, they (as you say) are right back where they were last year, just now without a 3 down LB, or a stud DL, or a top flight WR. You don't trade up to draft guys you don't think are the real deal just because they play a position of need.

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Your assuming they don’t like QBs that most consider tremendous prospects.
If they don’t like them they better look closer because they have a gaping hemorrhaging hole at the most important spot on the field.
It’s their job to find a QB. And it’s their job to take an excellent prospect and cos h him into a good QB. It’s not their job to say there are no QBs in the would worth having. If none are good enough to trade for, none are good enough to sign as free agents and the consensus excellent prospects aren’t good enough, it would appear they would be giving up.
What if the guy at 15 is a bust and they don’t have a an either.
You can play what if’s all you want but you don’t win without a qb and if we trot crap out at qb again it doesn’t really matter who you draft.

But if you don’t like my QB plan, what is yours?

Ring 6 said:

Your assuming they don’t like QBs that most consider tremendous prospects.

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I'm not assuming anything in general, only responding to your insistence that they have to draft a QB. My contention is that forcing that pick on a guy you don't like isn't productive, and the need for a QB doesn't make that a better decision. For all I know, they love all the QB's in this draft, and whoever falls to 15 would be fine with them. But I find that unlikely, and so trading up prior to knowing who will be there (which was the original premise of the thread) is risky.

Ring 6 said:

If they don’t like them they better look closer because they have a gaping hemorrhaging hole at the most important spot on the field.

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Looking closer doesn't change who the QB's are, and as we've seen with the Pats in the past, how prospects are viewed in general has little bearing on what they think of them in house.

Ring 6 said:

It’s their job to find a QB. If none are good enough to trade for, none are good enough to sign as free agents and the consensus excellent prospects aren’t good enough, it would appear they would be giving up.

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No, it would appear that YOU have given up. I highly doubt they view Cam as "giving up". Doesn't mean they don't want to upgrade, both now and in the future. But if we're talking about a draft pick, there's no guarantee that guy is playing at all this year, so it may be Cam either way in 2021.

Ring 6 said:

What if the guy at 15 is a bust and they don’t have a an either.

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Any player at any spot could be a bust. But in the scenario where they're taking the best player they like at the spot (regardless of position, not forcing it to be a QB no matter what), their odds of getting a good player are much, MUCH better.

Ring 6 said:

But if you don’t like my QB plan, what is yours?

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My plan actually isn't much different from yours to be honest. I don't have an in depth opinion on any of the prospects coming out, but taking a QB high (meaning at 15 or better in this case), would be my preference. Cam starts the year until the kid has earned the spot (whether that happens in 2021 or 2022 is TBD). That would be my best case scenario.

BUT, I would NOT draft a QB in round one no matter what. If the guy I like doesn't fall to a range we can trade to (again, IF there's a preference), I'm not taking a Mac Jones (for example) just to hope and pray that he works out. I'm using the pick on another player I have more faith in, or trading down and taking one of the second tier QB's later in the first or the second. And if I'm not sold on ANY of the QB's available to be, I'm riding out Cam for the year and looking at the landscape next year. Maybe Jimmy is available, maybe another star QB that we haven't predicted yet. Prior to 2020, who saw Watson or Wilson even being considered for moves? Prior to 2019, who saw Brady going to Tampa Bay? I'm not going to count on those things, but I'm also not going to demand a force-fed rookie QB because I'm afraid there will never be another option ever again.

Ring 6 said:

Are you saying you pass on any qb who will not be top 3 for a decade? And just accept losing with newton?
You are never sure about any player.
What is the alternative? Suck forever because you aren’t sure?
Why fixate on 4? If you only like 3 trade up to 3.
There are 4 QBs widely considered at top 5-10 picks. Are we really going to say we will pass and continue to suck at qb because we aren’t certain?
If you don’t like my plan of trading up to wherever it takes to get the QB what’s your plan?

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No, I’m saying you only trade up to 1 if you think that highly of a player. But I’m not trading up for a QB unless I think they can be a QBoTF. If they aren’t, then you’re just trading up for another Cam.
And I didn’t say I didn’t like your plan, just that you were making some assumptions about the QBs and the draft. If they have the top four QBs graded fairly similarly, then I’m fully behind trading up to 4 pre-draft. But that’s assuming they do.

Ring 6 said:

If fields goes 2 we still have to have a QB.
It’s not like we should just sit at 15 and take a lb.
Why “wait Atlanta out” there are many excellent players they can take. They have no need to trade the pick. We NEED the pick abs we can’t risk someone else offering more and we get left empty handed to watch another season obliterated by QB play.

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Mac Jones fits here. He will be there at 15.

Sicilian said:

I'm not assuming anything in general, only responding to your insistence that they have to draft a QB. My contention is that forcing that pick on a guy you don't like isn't productive, and the need for a QB doesn't make that a better decision. For all I know, they love all the QB's in this draft, and whoever falls to 15 would be fine with them. But I find that unlikely, and so trading up prior to knowing who will be there (which was the original premise of the thread) is risky.



Looking closer doesn't change who the QB's are, and as we've seen with the Pats in the past, how prospects are viewed in general has little bearing on what they think of them in house.



No, it would appear that YOU have given up. I highly doubt they view Cam as "giving up". Doesn't mean they don't want to upgrade, both now and in the future. But if we're talking about a draft pick, there's no guarantee that guy is playing at all this year, so it may be Cam either way in 2021.



Any player at any spot could be a bust. But in the scenario where they're taking the best player they like at the spot (regardless of position, not forcing it to be a QB no matter what), their odds of getting a good player are much, MUCH better.



My plan actually isn't much different from yours to be honest. I don't have an in depth opinion on any of the prospects coming out, but taking a QB high (meaning at 15 or better in this case), would be my preference. Cam starts the year until the kid has earned the spot (whether that happens in 2021 or 2022 is TBD). That would be my best case scenario.

BUT, I would NOT draft a QB in round one no matter what. If the guy I like doesn't fall to a range we can trade to (again, IF there's a preference), I'm not taking a Mac Jones (for example) just to hope and pray that he works out. I'm using the pick on another player I have more faith in, or trading down and taking one of the second tier QB's later in the first or the second. And if I'm not sold on ANY of the QB's available to be, I'm riding out Cam for the year and looking at the landscape next year. Maybe Jimmy is available, maybe another star QB that we haven't predicted yet. Prior to 2020, who saw Watson or Wilson even being considered for moves? Prior to 2019, who saw Brady going to Tampa Bay? I'm not going to count on those things, but I'm also not going to demand a force-fed rookie QB because I'm afraid there will never be another option ever again.

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I’m not saying draft a qb you think sucks just to draft a qb.
I am saying.
-Do whatever you have to in order to get the QB
-that probably means trading up
-trading up ahead if the draft is smarter than waiting until the team is in the clock
-if your suggestion that they don’t like any of the highly rated QBs is correct then they need to reevaluate.

Sucking, ignoring the positron and hoping for a miracle isn’t a plan.

vuudu said:

Mac Jones fits here. He will be there at 15.

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Im not convinced he does.

manxman2601 said:

No, I’m saying you only trade up to 1 if you think that highly of a player. But I’m not trading up for a QB unless I think they can be a QBoTF. If they aren’t, then you’re just trading up for another Cam.
And I didn’t say I didn’t like your plan, just that you were making some assumptions about the QBs and the draft. If they have the top four QBs graded fairly similarly, then I’m fully behind trading up to 4 pre-draft. But that’s assuming they do.

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My feeling is that those QBs are graded that highly for a reason.
I also strongly believe that 90% of what a qb becomes happens after he is drafted. Getting good coaching, accepting good coaching, being surrounded by a good team, or at least not by a crappy OL, as well as having the work ethic makes a prospect either a pro or a bust. All of those top 4 have the skillset to be good QBs if they are developed.
If you are too full shy to draft a guy who is a consensus top 5 player, then you should evaluate your drafting and qb philiosphy.
Every draft pick involves taking a chance. None of these guys are crazy reaches.

It’s not get a qb no matter what, it’s no matter what go get the qb you want.

Ring 6 said:

I’m not saying draft a qb you think sucks just to draft a qb.

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But the problem is you're advocating trading for a pick before you know which QB will be available at that pick. And given how many QB's who get picked in the top ten who end up sucking, that seems like a really risky maneuver. The two examples of teams doing this before the draft were RGIII and Darnold. Those aren't exactly ringing endorsements of this strategy.

patfanken said:

You are looking at this like this is the LAST draft in this decade where QB's will be available and if you don't draft one in the top 5 picks you will never see one available again. So I guess unless its a move up to get Pitts, you can put ME down as a "wait"

OK rant over.

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QB's might be a dime a dozen every draft, BUT this is likely the last time we will draft higher than #20 for the next 2-3 seasons and we need to complete the puzzle.

If BB punts on taking a QB in round 1 THEN it will have meant that he didn't like anyone as much as he liked Lawrence (and maybe Wilson).

That is fine with me as I am high on Cam 2.0....but that would mean that we aren't getting a QB in the 2022 draft either....we likely would need to procure a QB1 by other means (homegrown round 2+ talent, free agency, and/or trade).

Sicilian said:

But the problem is you're advocating trading for a pick before you know which QB will be available at that pick. And given how many QB's who get picked in the top ten who end up sucking, that seems like a really risky maneuver. The two examples of teams doing this before the draft were RGIII and Darnold. Those aren't exactly ringing endorsements of this strategy.

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I’m saying decide what QBs you want and trade up to where they will be available.

Ultimately I’m saying trading up today to where you know will get your guy is better than risking losing him on draft day.
In other words if Fields is my guy and I have to trade up to 3 to get him then I’m trading up to 3 no matter what. I don’t get to see where he goes until after he’s gone. The only thing I learn on draft day is whether someone outbids me.
I won’t know if fields makes it past 3 until someone takes him or doesn’t.
Assuming we are good with any of the top 4 was an example not a conclusion.
Trading today or waiting doesn’t change where you trade up to unless you are good with any of the 4.
Then you are stuck competing to trade for the 4th guy.

There is no hindsight unless you lose the player, so you never know how high you had to trade up unless you lose them.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

Pull a Ditka

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Ring 6 said:

I’d do it for 1,2 or 3.

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I'd scrub my hand with lye soap several times