OT: Official 2020 Tompa Bay Gronkaneers Thread

StockingAnarchyNumber12 said:

Wilson is certsintly top 6 but I think its possible Allen/Watson might be better at this point or will be. Not that I disagree with him being good though. What is your opinion on Allen and Watson?

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I think Allen needs to repeat his season, to show that it wasn't a fluke, because it was such a big jump for him, and I think I still need to see a lot of improvement in his ability to hold up in pressure situations before I start putting him up as an elite QB. I also think Watson is a good, but overrated QB. He obviously still has time to develop, but he reminds me of Russell Wilson with his "ability" to get out of a lot of trouble that he's caused for himself, without the ability to keep his team from collapsing to a 4 win squad.

Having said that, we've got the declines/retirements of Rivers, Roethlisberger and Brees opening up 3 slots in what's been a pretty static top 6-7, and one could make a case that both Allen and Watson are somewhere in that top 7 range right now.

StockingAnarchyNumber12 said:

Wilson is certsintly top 6 but I think its possible Allen/Watson might be better at this point or will be. Not that I disagree with him being good though. What is your opinion on Allen and Watson?

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If it’s based on 2020 play, then my rankings would be a lot different. I just struggle to put Allen too high because I just saw some “Breakout: He’s Elite” seasons from Wentz and Lamar Jackson followed by big regression. If he plays at 2020 level, then sure, he’s a top 5 QB.

Watson is entirely different...it’s kind of shocking he could go 4-12 even with a garbage team and garbage franchise. In three full seasons, the Texans under Watson have finished 11th, 14th, and 18th in points scored. He’s somewhat of an enigma to me.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Tier 1 - Makes everyone better
1. Mahomes
2. Brady
3. Rodgers
4. Wilson
But we do have some concerns sub-tier
5. Watson
Tier 2 - Championship capable with the right support
6. Prescott
7. Ryan
8. Allen
9. Jackson
10. Carr
Boom or Bust: Kyler Murray sub-tier
11. Murray
Tier 3 - Solid but doesn’t inspire championship confidence
12. Stafford
13. Tannehill
14. Garoppolo
15. Mayfield
16. Cousins
Tier 4 - Big Question Mark
17. Wentz
18. Roethlisberger
19. Goff
Tier 5 - Should No Longer Start
20. Bridgewater
21. Trubisky
22. Smith
23. Minshew
24. Jones
25. Lock
26. Darnold

Too Soon To Tell
Burrow
Herbert
Tagovailoa
Hurts

Unknown Situations
Patriots QB (Stidham? Newton?)
Saints QB (Brees return possible but unlikely. Winston? Hill?)

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Agree about Lamar. I know quite a few people who love him and thinks he’s a top quarterback in the league because he’s “so electric.” Of course these are the same people who have told me for years that Vick was an amazing quarterback.

In the playoffs he’s put up

17
12
20
3

That’s horrible no matter which way you slice it.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

If it’s based on 2020 play, then my rankings would be a lot different. I just struggle to put Allen too high because I just saw some “Breakout: He’s Elite” seasons from Wentz and Lamar Jackson followed by big regression. If he plays at 2020 level, then sure, he’s a top 5 QB.

Watson is entirely different...it’s kind of shocking he could go 4-12 even with a garbage team and garbage franchise. In three full seasons, the Texans under Watson have finished 11th, 14th, and 18th in points scored. He’s somewhat of an enigma to me.

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That’s crazy about Watson. You expect an elite quarterback to lead you to a top 10 offense a majority of the time. And it’s not like Watson has had garbage around him for weapons in the last 3 years.

I checked offensive DVOA and nope, not top 10 in that either.

2018 - 19th
2019 - 17th
2020 - 13th

Bleedthrough said:

Agree about Lamar. I know quite a few people who love him and thinks he’s a top quarterback in the league because he’s “so electric.” Of course these are the same people who have told me for years that Vick was an amazing quarterback.

In the playoffs he’s put up

17
12
20
3

That’s horrible no matter which way you slice it.

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I wish I could find the article from last year about whether or not “the running QB“ really struggles in the playoffs or if it’s mostly perception. It was published right before the Ravens-Titans game when it looked like the Ravens would wreck every team.

The author brought up an interesting point (while concluding it is not a myth and not to be surprised if Jackson face plants.) It wasn’t really about more physical punishment or more intensity in the playoffs from defenses (those have always seemed like weak explanations.)

Rather, defenses are often not equipped to deal with running QBs during the regular season. It goes against all of their normal roles and assignments and often against their regular personnel groupings. The regular season is a marathon, and coaches will typically make some small tweaks but won’t overhaul the unit or put “a spy” out there or spend a week on a demanding contain scheme. There is just so much stuff they’re worried about internally that creating a unique QB gameplan isn’t practical. So, a gimmicky style like Jackson can really tear through the league for awhile.

In the playoffs, though, the coaches will absolutely alter the defense’s identity and defend the running lanes, read tendencies, use specific counter-strategies, and you see why the running QB really does fail in the NFL with so many fast, athletic defenders. And that small lack of precision from the pocket starts to become huge when the dual-threat breaks down.

Bleedthrough said:

That’s crazy about Watson. You expect an elite quarterback to lead you to a top 10 offense a majority of the time. And it’s not like Watson has had garbage around him for weapons in the last 3 years.

I checked offensive DVOA and nope, not top 10 in that either.

2018 - 19th
2019 - 17th
2020 - 13th

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Yeah, I agree. I think this is where all those sacks come into play. Wilson‘s PPG is typically in the 8-12 range...better than Watson but same issue. Pundits and fans seem to be obsessed with QB Rating (doesn’t account for sacks or blown up scrambling attempts) and athleticism to run away from where they should be in the pocket. I think PPG is a superior measure, though imperfect.

Tony2046 said:

Not arguing with your list because it's pretty good but Prescott at 6 and higher than Stafford seems wrong to me. But your overall point is correct, imo.

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This was from last year, so not updated, but I’ve always thought Stafford is an A+ loser. Only so far you can take the “but it’s the Lions” mitigator. Yeah, they suck, but a lot of franchises suck and yet a great QB made them suck a lot less.

The Lions had some competitive squads too. Stafford has never won a playoff game, and I think I’ve watched him play 15 times in either primetime or a big playoff implication game and never seen him fail to disappoint, rack up empty stats, and then disappoint again with the game on the line.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Yeah, I agree. I think this is where all those sacks come into play. Wilson‘s PPG is typically in the 8-12 range...better than Watson but same issue. Pundits and fans seem to be obsessed with QB Rating (doesn’t account for sacks or blown up scrambling attempts) and athleticism to run away from where they should be in the pocket. I think PPG is a superior measure, though imperfect.

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I struggle to decide if I want to use PPG or DVOA. I do like how DVOA takes account the SOS of defenses faced, and also has a small penalty for dome games.

For example PPG shows the 2009 Saints as the best offense. But DVOA has them #2 behind the Patriots because of the difference in the strength of defenses faced, dome games, and the Saints offense benefited from a lot of turnovers.

PPG shows
1. 2013 Broncos - 37.9
2. 2007 Patriots - 36.8
3. 2018 Chiefs - 35.3
4. 2011 Packers - 35.0
5. 2012 Patriots - 34.8
6. 1998 Vikings - 34.8
7. 2011 Saints - 34.2
8. 1983 Redskins - 33.8
9. 2000 Rams - 33.8
10. 2016 Falcons - 33.8

DVOA (only goes back to 1985 at the moment) shows
1. 2007 Patriots - 44.1%
2. 2010 Patriots - 42.8%
3. 2018 Chiefs - 35.4%
4. 2002 Chiefs - 35.4%
5. 1998 Broncos - 35.0%
6. 1992 49ers - 34.5%
7. 2013 Broncos - 34.2%
8. 2011 Packers - 34.2%
9. 2003 Chiefs - 33.9%
10. 2011 Saints - 33.5%


I need to pick one and stick with it. Especially since leading a top offense is a big thing I look at when ranking the greatest quarterbacks.

Bleedthrough said:

I struggle to decide if I want to use PPG or DVOA. I do like how DVOA takes account the SOS of defenses faced, and also has a small penalty for dome games.

For example PPG shows the 2009 Saints as the best offense. But DVOA has them #2 behind the Patriots because of the difference in the strength of defenses faced, dome games, and the Saints offense benefited from a lot of turnovers.

PPG shows
1. 2013 Broncos - 37.9
2. 2007 Patriots - 36.8
3. 2018 Chiefs - 35.3
4. 2011 Packers - 35.0
5. 2012 Patriots - 34.8
6. 1998 Vikings - 34.8
7. 2011 Saints - 34.2
8. 1983 Redskins - 33.8
9. 2000 Rams - 33.8
10. 2016 Falcons - 33.8

DVOA (only goes back to 1985 at the moment) shows
1. 2007 Patriots - 44.1%
2. 2010 Patriots - 42.8%
3. 2018 Chiefs - 35.4%
4. 2002 Chiefs - 35.4%
5. 1998 Broncos - 35.0%
6. 1992 49ers - 34.5%
7. 2013 Broncos - 34.2%
8. 2011 Packers - 34.2%
9. 2003 Chiefs - 33.9%
10. 2011 Saints - 33.5%


I need to pick one and stick with it. Especially since leading a top offense is a big thing I look at when ranking the greatest quarterbacks.

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DVOA is great...except they paywall’d me this year! Better than PPG for sure.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

DVOA is great...except they paywall’d me this year!

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I thought so too. But I made a free account and have access to all the DVOA stats still. I let out a sigh of relief when I realized that!

Do you still like using PPG over DVOA?

Bleedthrough said:

I thought so too. But I made a free account and have access to all the DVOA stats still. I let out a sigh of relief when I realized that!

Do you still like using PPG over DVOA?

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Oh nice! I’ll have to do that.

DVOA is superior, I think, with its adjustments, and I believe it also gives negatives for turnovers? I’m just used to pulling up stats on profootball-reference so PPG is often just easier for me to use.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

If it’s based on 2020 play, then my rankings would be a lot different. I just struggle to put Allen too high because I just saw some “Breakout: He’s Elite” seasons from Wentz and Lamar Jackson followed by big regression. If he plays at 2020 level, then sure, he’s a top 5 QB.

Watson is entirely different...it’s kind of shocking he could go 4-12 even with a garbage team and garbage franchise. In three full seasons, the Texans under Watson have finished 11th, 14th, and 18th in points scored. He’s somewhat of an enigma to me.

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Unlike Wentz/Jackson Allen flashed and was good last year he was just hated on here. Some of us even brought up how good he and the bulls would be and were literally laughed at

amfootball said:

Wilson is not injury prone. Mahomes is.

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True right now, but Mahomes is closer to Wilson than RG3.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

This was from last year, so not updated, but I’ve always thought Stafford is an A+ loser. Only so far you can take the “but it’s the Lions” mitigator. Yeah, they suck, but a lot of franchises suck and yet a great QB made them suck a lot less.

The Lions had some competitive squads too. Stafford has never won a playoff game, and I think I’ve watched him play 15 times in either primetime or a big playoff implication game and never seen him fail to disappoint, rack up empty stats, and then disappoint again with the game on the line.

View attachment 30688

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Damn, TFB was good. Really good, for a really long time. You could call Garoppolo Glass Brady when it comes to this metric. I mean, up to last year.

Bleedthrough said:

Agree about Lamar. I know quite a few people who love him and thinks he’s a top quarterback in the league because he’s “so electric.” Of course these are the same people who have told me for years that Vick was an amazing quarterback.

In the playoffs he’s put up

17
12
20
3

That’s horrible no matter which way you slice it.

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That's because he is a RB before a QB.

Lamar and other run 1st QBs will do well in the regular season against average and losing teams.

The playoffs are a different story with better teams and better defenses. Eventually, usually the 1st team, he meets has a good defense that has the personnel and the scheme to take away his explosive running plays. Then he becomes a bottom tier passer.

Sure he is a top 5 or 10 QB if you just look at the regular season. But if you look at the big picture and include playoffs and chance for a SB, I would rank him around 15 -20.

carmelo15 said:

Unlike Wentz/Jackson Allen flashed and was good last year he was just hated on here. Some of us even brought up how good he and the bulls would be and were literally laughed at

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For sure...I was one of those people very skeptical about Allen. He was really impressive this season.

Bleedthrough said:

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Retirement is going to be pure hell for Brady.

PP2 said:

Retirement is going to be pure hell for Brady.

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Going to be a sad day when he finally retires. Living legend. Enjoy him while you can. He probably only has 1-3 years left. I added 3 because you never know with this guy.

My god...