Where things stand vs preseason expectations at the ¼ pole, IMHO:
AFC East:
I figured Buffalo would have lost to the Rams and be 3-1 rather than 4-0, but other than that the records are about what I expected.
Pats at 2-2 with losses at Seattle and at KC is what I had anticipated, as is Miami at 1-3 and the Jets looking like an 0-16 team.
AFC North:
Pittsburgh being 3-0 is not a surprise given those wins were against the Giants, Broncos and Texans; had the game vs Tennessee been played that would have given us a better sense of how good they are. To me the big surprise is Cleveland, specifically their offense (31 points per game, #1 in AFC).
AFC South:
The Texans had to begin the season with games against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Vikings, so it is not a surprise that they are 0-4. Cal McNair continues his father's legacy of kneejerk reactions without a plan by firing Bill O'Brien (though to be fair, the GM duties should have been taken away from BOB). 1-3 Jacksonville has played much better than I thought they would, with two close losses. I'm not sold on the 3-1 Colts yet; let's see how they do in November when they play the Ravens, Packers and Titans twice in a four-week stretch.
AFC West:
A bit surprised that KC has struggled as much as they have (in wins vs the Chargers and Patriots). The Raiders have looked very good so far, but they now play at KC, Tampa, at Browns, at Chargers, Broncos, KC and at Atlanta. It's possible they could be no better than 4-7 or maybe 5-6 - though their December schedule gets much easier.
NFC East:
I wonder if Fox will continue to jam this division down our throats week after week? We knew Washington and NYG would be bad, but Dallas has the NFL's worst offense, and Philadelphia's wide receiving corps is even worse than the Pats, plus their offensive line is a mess. The NFCE could very well set a record for the worst collective won-loss record since the NFL split into four divisions.
NFC North:
I thought the Vikings would win this division, but their defense is atrocious, against both the pass and the run. Detroit is another disappointment; I thought they would improve after going 0-8 in games when Stafford was out with an injury last year. The bigger surprise is 3-1 Chicago, who I had pegged as a last place team that would be in line for a top ten draft pick. I don't think the Bears keep it up though. Every win has been by four points: two against underachievers that find ways to lose (Lions, Falcons), and the other was against the Giants. Let's see what their record is on Dec 1 after they play Tampa, at Carolina, at Rams, Saints, at Titans, Vikings, and at Packers. Green Bay should have an easy path to the division title.
NFC South:
Slight surprise that the 2-2 Panthers have played as well as they have, and that the Falcons are 0-4. The two 40 year old quarterbacks still look good - but have also had a few plays where they are starting to show their age.
NFC West:
Seattle's defense has appeared to be very vulnerable; they are fortunate to be 4-0. I don't know if the Rams have enough on offense to win the division. The Niners have had so many injuries, I don't know if they can catch either LA or Seattle.
With the extra team in the playoffs, could we see two divisions send three teams to the playoffs? In the NFC it is obvious the NFCE will have only one playoff team. It is possible that the third place NFCW team could be better than the second place NFCN team, setting up something like this:
East: one team (Phil/Dallas)
North: Green Bay
South: Bucs/Saints
West: Seattle, Rams, Niners
Similarly, in the AFC:
East: Bills, Pats
North: Ravens, Steelers, Browns
South: Titans
West: Chiefs
The AFC is less likely to happen, with intra-division games likely to hurt Cleveland's chances to the point where the Colts would finish ahead of the Browns.
Excellent analysis. I'd like to look at the AFC more closely by showing the remaining schedules for the nine teams in the hunt right now. I'm listing the team's opponents by tougher/easier
AFCE
Buf (4-0) - KC., NE (2), Sea, Pit, Ten, Ari / NYJ, LAC, SF, Mia, Den
NE (2-2) - Buf (2), Bal, ari, LAR / Den, SF, NYJ (2), Hou, LAC, Mia
NE has a slightly easier schedule but will probably need to sweep the Bills to take the division. IMO that's NE's only chance to make the playoffs.
AFCW
KC (4-1) - Buf, Car, LV, TB, NO / Den (2), NYJ, Atl, Mia, LAC
LV (3-2) - TB, Cle, KC, Ind / LAC (2), Den (2), Atl, NYJ, Mia
With a win over KC and a slighlty easier schedule, they could take the division or take one of the WCs.
AFCN
Pitt (4-0) - Ten, Cle (2), Bal (2), Buf, Ind / Dal, Cin (2), Jac, Was
Bal (4-1) - Pit (2), Ten, Ind, Cle, NE / Dal, Cin (2), Jac, Was
Cle (4-1) - Pit (2), LV, Ten, Bal / Cin, Hou, Phi, Jac, NYJ, NYG
My opinion is that Pitt is a paper tiger. Their opponents' combined record is an astounding 3-15-1. Unless one of the north teams fold during the rest of the season, all three will make the playoffs and the Ratbirds will win the division.
AFCS
Ten (3-0) - Pit, Buf, Chi, Ind (2), Bal, Cle, GB / Hou (2), Cin, Jac, Det
Ind (3-2) - Bal, Ten (2), GB, LV, Pit / Cin, Det, Hou (2), Jac
This will come down to the head to head matchup and I like the Titans if they stay healthy. In either case only one of these teams will make it.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
