Poll: How long do you think the 2020 NFL season will last?

Full season, but not necessarily without any delays or rescheduling.

Simpelton said:

Sadly I agree with this, and let me add that while a 2% lethality rate seems mild, using back of the envelope math, and considering that each team is 80 players plus dozens of support staff, coaches, etc. that 2% death rate suggests 1-2 deaths PER TEAM would be the statistical average outcome.

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Your math assumes that every single person gets it.

Only about 1 in 2,200 people overall die so far (149,000 deaths in a population of 330,000,000, as of 07/29/2020) or roughly 0.04%. So statistically I think that would be one person in the entire league, assuming about 2,500 players total.

And that wouldn't be adjusting for how few of them are over 70, or even 40, or 30. If we adjust for age, I'd put deaths at zero for the league.

(My napkin math might be flawed)

I don't see them having a season at all, since the NFL has literally been the least prepared sport out of the 4 major sports. I'd be shocked if there aren't dozens of positive cases, especially with the Florida. Texas, California and Arizona team(s). I'm hoping I'm 100% wrong, I LOVE football, especially my Pats, but I have a feeling we have a long way to go with this goddamned disease.

Where is " i don't know " option ?

Kenneth Sims said:

No, I mean everyone out there that has to go out to work in this but is taking every precaution they can not to catch or spread the virus. I’m in my late 50s and diabetic. When this all started, a growth in my lung was being tested for cancer. Thank God the biopsy was negative, but the biopsy showed the growth to be inflammation tissue, so it’s logical to believe the other nodules present in both of my lungs are inflamed tissue as well. In short, it would probably not go well for me if I caught a bad dose of the virus.

But, I have to venture out to work like millions of others who are of an age or health condition that makes it a dangerous proposition. I don’t begrudge any player that opted out. I don’t begrudge people who can afford to bunker down and have supplies delivered to their front door.

But, I’m not one of them nor is it an option for most of us. I’m sure it’s not an option for many players, coaches or staff employed by NFL teams. This is not a matter of greed as too many believe but of survival.

This nation has been so affluent for so long that there is a class of people who are so far removed from the nitty gritty of life that they don’t even know it exists. Congratulations to them, but for the rest of us money doesn’t magically show up in our bank accounts and food doesn’t just appear on our tables. Work is not life, but it is a livelihood.

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Incredible post.
It never ceases to amaze me how people can just sit on their butt and make judgment about what other people should do.
As you say, most people don’t have the luxury of hiding from the risk. That includes many nfl players and coaches who have families to support.
Maybe the top 10-20% have made enough money to not need to be paid this year but a lot have not. And we aren’t talking about scraping by, we are talking about living at their accustomed standard of living.
Thanks for the perspective.

Full season. Maybe 1-2 weeks of delays/rescheduling for 4-5 teams......but I think Roger wants teams to play depleted vs. delaying games.

tasmlab said:

Your math assumes that every single person gets it.

Only about 1 in 2,200 people overall die so far (149,000 deaths in a population of 330,000,000, as of 07/29/2020) or roughly 0.04%. So statistically I think that would be one person in the entire league, assuming about 2,500 players total.

And that wouldn't be adjusting for how few of them are over 70, or even 40, or 30. If we adjust for age, I'd put deaths at zero for the league.

(My napkin math might be flawed)

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It's very flawed. You have to divide by how many people have caught it, not by US population. You can't die from it if you haven't caught it.

In any case, the CDC's current estimate of "people dead from it" divided by "everyone who caught it, even totally asymptomatic people" is 0.65%

QuantumMechanic said:

It's very flawed. You have to divide by how many people have caught it, not by US population. You can't die from it if you haven't caught it.

In any case, the CDC's current estimate of "people dead from it" divided by "everyone who caught it, even totally asymptomatic people" is 0.65%

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I think his point is that he is factoring in “not everyone gets it” as he stated.
The risk of death for nfl players can’t assume a 100% infection rate. If there were even a 20.% rate everyone would be sent home.

PatsWickedPissah said:

Assume 2% lethality # is real. for conversation sake. That 2% is decidedly NOT uniformly distributed. It is greatly skewed towards the 70+ year old end. Greatly. This is one good thing about this virus. Lethality risk for younger age groups many times less. Also, treatment knowhow has increased.

And NOW we know why old coot Dante retired! Prescient.

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What I don’t get is why can’t they just distance those in this demographic? Coaches have coached from up in the booth many times before.

I say 8 games before the NFL finally caves to media pressure.

I don’t exactly know what it would take for the NFL to at least not even try to have a season. Something very catastrophic.

Does anything in the NFL’s past indicate they’ll go “oh dear, too many positive tests, cancel the season now!”?

I don’t see the NFL looking at it this way, I really don’t. You’ll have to drag the league from playing.

QuantumMechanic said:

It's very flawed. You have to divide by how many people have caught it, not by US population. You can't die from it if you haven't caught it.

In any case, the CDC's current estimate of "people dead from it" divided by "everyone who caught it, even totally asymptomatic people" is 0.65%

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I understand that. Simpleton's post that I was quoting assumed that 2% of all players would die, meaning he or she assumed either a 100% case rate or included people who didn't catch it. He was predicting 1-2 deaths per team.

Although the NFL should be criticized with their initial covid response/plan I'm fairly confident that the season will happen.

If the NFL played games before the other major US sports I'd be less confident, but the NFL has the advantage of learning from the NHL, NBA, and to a greater extent MLB.

After witnessing the cluster F that is the Marlins I'd wager that the NFL will have better safeguards to limit the damage that comes from the few NFL teams that suffer from Derek Jeter level leadership skills. The key will be aggressive and accurate testing, limiting exposure on the field, and more importantly limiting exposure during personal time, and when that fails mitigating the typhoid Mary affect. The early MLB covid results indicate that their covid policies are indeed effective, but rely on the competence of the teams that are enforcing them. In other words, MLB policies are effective enough, but they need to do a better job making sure that the lowest common denominator (Marlins) are compliant. The NFL, while not visionaries, learn from the mistakes of others and will do a better job of policing potential Marlins wannabes.

There is much more physical contact in the NFL than MLB, and the NFL should mandate the use of the facial shield and filter, but even with that being optional they can still effectively mitigate risk via aggressive testing/quarantining.

There are a multitude of variables in play so anything is possible, but the smart money is on the NFL playing a full season.

I would also be surprised if there are any covid related nfl employee's deaths or significant covid related health complications when further considering:

1. As time goes on Dr's are improving covid treatments. 2. The relative youth and good health of players who opt in. 3. Healthy cure rates are much higher when treated early and when treated with proper care (all players and coaches will be diagnosed almost immediately and will receive the best care that money can buy) 4. Coaches, while older, will have a lower exposure rate as they'll be able to more effectively social distance.