Winning is hard. While I would argue KC is the favorite this year, that means very little. You also need health and luck. KC had a bad string of injuries last year which nearly cost them a first round bye. It just barely didn't through which was lucky for them.
Come playoff time they were lucky enough to have all hands on deck and healthy. Mahomes, Hill, Watkins and Kelce were all good to go. Their OL and D were all relatively healthy too come playoff time. Who were they really missing who mattered a lot? I'm sure there's someone but I can't remember. Honestly they have had pretty good luck injury wise the last 2 years. Eric Berry aside, but that guy is never healthy.
I think they will regret not cashing in on the 2018-19 season that we took. That was a good chance for them while Mahomes was still dirt cheap and they were healthy. You don't get many of those. The Pats really took advantage of those early Brady deals and won 3 rings (almost 4 if not for the Colts AFFCG) early because of it.
This is Mahomes last cheap year. Frankly for them, they better win it this year. Mahomes cap hit goes from 5M to 25M after this coming season is done. 25M is still cheap for a player like Mahomes but it soon rises to 31M then 42M. These next 2 years, but particular this year is the best chance KC will have to win for the rest of Mahomes career. This will be the year it is decided if Mahomes finishes with 2 or 3 rings when he's done IMO.
Personally I think they don't win it this year. The odds of Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Watkins and co on that offense being healthy again is small. As is the odds of the key players on D being healthy again. Injury bug is due to hit them and hard. It almost did last year, it will this year.
Losing Fuller, Ogbah and Erving (even though he isn't that good) will hurt too.
